July’s ‘furious rotation’ was a catch-up for global equities that lagged in Q2 - DataTrek

seekingalpha08-01

July saw rates declining sharply, causing “a furious rotation” into cyclicals and rate-sensitive sectors such as U.S. small caps (VB), (IJR), (SCHA), (IWM), as well as Europe (IEUR) and Japan (EWJ). ...

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Both the two-year (US2Y) and the ten-year Treasury (US10Y) yields fell from 4.72% and 4.34% to 4.26% and 4.03%, respectively, over the past month. Current yields are the lowest since February/March. “These sharp declines were the fundamental drivers of this month’s U.S. equity market moves,” wrote Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek, in a Community Plus report. “Investors now believe [that] the American economy will see a soft landing, and Fed rate cuts will keep growth steady over the coming quarters.”  Also, investors now feel safer allocation capital elsewhere aside the big tech names (AAPL), (MSFT), (NVDA), (GOOG), (AMZN), (META), (CRM), he said.  The Russell 200 (IWM) was up 10.1%, the S&P 600 (SP600) was up 11%, the S&P Mid Cap 400 (SP400) was up 5.8%. Even the S&P 1500 (SPTM) was up higher than the S&P 500 (SP500), up 1.7% vs. 1.1%. Non-U.S. equities (NASDAQ:ACWX) had modest gains this month, up 2.2% in July and up 6.3% year-to-date. Europe (IEUR) and Japan (EWJ) outperformed the S&P 500 (SP500) -- up 2.5% and 4% respectively, compared to 1.1% for the S&P 500 -- but emerging markets lagged (EEM), only up 0.8% Within U.S. stocks, rate sensitive groups such as financials (XLF), real estate (XLRE), and utilities (XLU) led the market, while technology (XLK) and tech-adjacent groups lagged. “As a result, value outperformed growth and minimum volatility/dividend plays did better than the S&P 500 (SP500),” said Colas. “July was a catch-up month for areas of the global equity market that lagged in Q2.” Lastly, Colas said that because of July’s decline in U.S. interest rates, “it would have been logical to expect much more of a catch-up trade in non-U.S. equities (ACWX), but that did not come to pass. We believe the continued relative strength of the U.S. economy explains this departure from historical norms.”","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2456309464"}