Employment Report: 114K Jobs Added In July, Less Than Expected

seekingalpha08-03

The latest employment report showed 114,000 jobs were added in July, falling short of the expected addition of 176,000 new jobs.Unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, highest since October 2021.The Bureau of...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2456851218?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1132115640/image_1132115640.jpg","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2024-08-03 12:30","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","id":"2456851218","market":"sg","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Employment Report: 114K Jobs Added In July, Less Than Expected","media":"seekingalpha","content":"<div>\n<p>The latest employment report showed 114,000 jobs were added in July, falling short of the expected addition of 176,000 new jobs.Unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, highest since October 2021.The Bureau of...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4710006-employment-report-114k-jobs-added-july-less-than-expected\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Employment Report: 114K Jobs Added In July, Less Than Expected</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEmployment Report: 114K Jobs Added In July, Less Than Expected\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-03 12:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4710006-employment-report-114k-jobs-added-july-less-than-expected><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The latest employment report showed 114,000 jobs were added in July, falling short of the expected addition of 176,000 new jobs.Unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, highest since October 2021.The Bureau of...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4710006-employment-report-114k-jobs-added-july-less-than-expected\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4581","symbol_name":"高盛持仓","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4710006-employment-report-114k-jobs-added-july-less-than-expected","article_id":"2456851218","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1132115640/image_1132115640.jpg"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2456851218","pubTimestamp":1722659400,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"The latest employment report showed 114,000 jobs were added in July, falling short of the expected addition of 176,000 new jobs.Unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, highest since October 2021.The Bureau of","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4581":"高盛持仓","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4504":"桥水持仓","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","IWM":"罗素2000指数ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","SPLG":"SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","FDN":"First Trust Dow Jones Internet I","IVV":"标普500指数ETF"},"translate_title":"就业报告：7月新增就业岗位11.4万个，低于预期","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"VOO":1,"SPY":1,"SPLG":1,"FDN":0.77,"IVV":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"IWM":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6},"content_text":"The latest employment report showed 114,000 jobs were added in July, falling short of the expected addition of 176,000 new jobs.Unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, highest since October 2021.The Bureau of Labor Statistics' broadest measure of unemployment is the U6 series, which is at 7.8%.   Luis Alvarez The latest employment report showed 114,000 jobs were added in July, falling short of the expected addition of 176,000 new jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, its highest level since October 2021. Here is an excerpt from the Employment Situation Summary released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics: The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent in July, and nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 114,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing, while information lost jobs. Here is a snapshot of the monthly change in nonfarm employment over the last 3 years.  For another view, here is the monthly percent change in nonfarm employment since 2000. We've added a 12-month moving average to highlight the long-term trend. The latest 12-month moving average is at 209,000, its lowest level since March 2021.  The next chart shows the pattern of unemployment, recessions and the S&P composite since 1948. Unemployment is usually a lagging indicator that moves inversely with equity prices (top series in the chart). Note the increasing peaks in unemployment in 1971, 1975 and 1982. The mirror relationship repeats itself with the previous bear markets. The COVID pandemic briefly showed the same type of relationship between equities and unemployment, though the impact was temporary and irrational exuberance took over once again. The latest unemployment rate is at 4.253% (to three decimal places), its highest level since October 2021.  Now let's take a look at the unemployment rate as a recession indicator or more specifically the cyclical troughs in the unemployment rate (UR) as a recession indicator. The next chart features a 12-month moving average of the UR with the troughs highlighted. The current unemployment rate of 4.25% (to two decimal places) is above the latest 12-month moving average of 3.86% (to two decimal places). As the inset table shows, the correlation between the MA troughs and recession starts is remarkably close. The latest trough in the series occurred 12 months ago in June 2023, where the 12-month moving average of the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since January 1970.  Here's another chart to illustrate the reality of the unemployment rate - the unemployment rate divided by the labor force participation rate. We are currently at 6.8%, up from 6.5% the previous month and the highest level since October 2021.    The next chart shows the unemployment rate for the civilian population unemployed 27 weeks and over. This rate has fallen significantly since its 4.4% all-time peak in April 2010. After the COVID pandemic, the rate reached as high as 2.6% but has since fallen. The unemployment rate for the civilian population unemployed 27 weeks and over is now at 0.9%, unchanged from the previous month and the highest level since March 2022.    The next chart is an overlay of the unemployment rate and the employment-population ratio. This is the ratio of the number of employed people to the total civilian population age 16 and over.  The inverse correlation between the two series is obvious. We can also see the accelerating growth of women in the workforce and two-income households in the early 1980s. Before the COVID pandemic, the employment-population was range-bound between 54.9% and 64.7% - the lower end harkens back to when Eisenhower was president of a country of one-income households, the Korean War was still underway, and rumors were circulating that soft drinks would soon be sold in cans. In April 2020, because of the global pandemic, we saw the employment-population ratio drop to its lowest level in series history to 51.3%. Since then, it has been gradually climbing to its pre-pandemic range, with the latest ratio at 60.0%, down from 60.1% the previous month.  For a confirming view of the secular change the US is experiencing on the employment front, the next chart illustrates the labor force participation rate. We're at 62.7%, up from 62.6% the previous month.  The employment-population ratio and participation rate will be interesting to watch going forward. The first wave of boomers will continue to be a downward force on this ratio. The oldest of them were eligible for early retirement when the Great Recession began, and the transition of the boomer cohort to full retirement age won't end until 2030. What is the average length of unemployment? As the next chart illustrates, we are perhaps seeing a paradigm shift - the result of global outsourcing and efficiencies of technology. The latest monthly figure shows the average duration is at 20.6 weeks, well below the 40.7-week all-time high in late 2011.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics' broadest measure of unemployment is the U6 series, which includes the total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part-time for economic reasons. This series dates from 1994.  The U6 series is currently at 7.8%, up from 7.4% the previous month and the highest level since October 2021. Notes: The start date of 1948 in the charts above was determined by the earliest monthly employment data collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The best source for the historical data is the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The S&P Composite is a splice of the S&P500, which started in 1957, with the S&P90, which preceded it. ETFs associated with the S&P 500 include: iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), and SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF (SPLG). Original Post  Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"economic","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2456851218"}