Small caps will bounce back in a bumpy way, not before Fed cuts - Jefferies

seekingalpha08-06

Jefferies analysts believe small caps (NYSEARCA:IWM), (SPSM), (IJS) will play catch up to large caps “but not in a straight line.” Small caps (IWM) are now seeing a correction after one of their best ...

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Since 1990, 89 trading sessions saw the VIX (VIX) rise above 30, followed by positive equity returns that are above average with small caps beating large (SP500), a Jefferies USA Equity Strategy report said. When the VIX (VIX) rose above 30, stocks tended to bounce sharply over the following three, six, and 12 months, the report said. “This does not take into account that our relative valuation model remains at an extreme (very attractive),” wrote Strategist Steven G. DeSanctis. “Across both size segments, we find that growth beats value, but we think value gets held back by having a bigger bond proxy presence, and these stocks don't jump nearly as high come the recovery.” In addition, although high yield spreads (JNK) have widened by about 60 basis points month-to-date, the gap is still “well below its long-term average.” The 10-year yield (US10Y) has fallen 40 basis points over the last week, with its yield back to late January levels, DeSanctis added. Another key point is the soon-to-be rate cuts. Rate cuts are known to help small caps (IWM), but only after. During the first half of the year, small caps (IWM) trailed large caps (SP500) by 12.5 percentage points. They normally trail them by 2.2%.  “Even though small is having a rough August, the size segment is still beating large by 4.6% quarter-to-date, and three-months after the first cut, the size segment is ahead by 5.2%.”","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.4","shortVersion":"4.29.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2457027627"}