The Return Of Volatility

seekingalpha08-11

In a highly volatile week across global financial markets, U.S. equity markets ultimately finished the week little-changed, while benchmark interest rates rebounded from the lowest levels of the year....

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The Nasdaq remained in \"correction territory.\"Initial Jobless Claims totaled 233k last week - below estimates of 240k and down from the upwardly revised 250k in the prior week. ISM's Services PMI was also stronger than expected, underscored by a rebound in the closely-watched employment index.Real estate equities were again among the better-performers this week as REIT earnings season wound down with a handful of solid reports, highlighted by continued strength in retail leasing activity and an encouraging rebound in office demand.   Matteo Colombo Real Estate Weekly Outlook iREIT®+HOYA Capital In a highly volatile week across global financial markets, U.S. equity markets ultimately finished little-changed, while benchmark interest rates rebounded from the lowest levels of the year as stabilization in Asian and European markets, decent jobless claims data, and clarity on the domestic Presidential matchup helped to ease market jitters. Narrowly avoiding a fourth-straight week of losses, the S&P 500 finished flat this week - staging a late-week rebound after sharp declines early in the week. The VIX - a standard measure of equity market volatility - briefly surged to its highest level since October 2020 before moderating later in the week. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 - which dipped into \"correction territory\" last week - gained 0.4% this week, but the Small-Cap 600 ended the week lower by 1.0% Real estate equities were again among the better-performers this week as REIT earnings season wound down with a handful of solid reports, highlighted by continued strength in retail leasing activity and an encouraging rebound in office demand. The Equity REIT Index finished lower by 0.2% on the week, with 9-of-18 property sectors in positive territory, while the Mortgage REIT Index gained 0.2%. iREIT®+HOYA Capital Markets responded violently to a weaker-than-expected slate of employment data last week, which was amplified by a confluence of major central bank policy decisions, including a surprisingly hawkish policy pivot by the Bank of Japan, which sparked a historic market crash in Asian markets early in the week. Before recovering later in the week, Japan's Nikkei 225 posted its biggest one-day point drop in history and its largest percentage decline since the \"Black Monday\" plunge in 1987. The most closely-watched economic report in an otherwise slow week of major releases, weekly jobless claims data was moderately encouraging, pushing back on fears of a sharp contraction in hiring. Initial Jobless Claims totaled 233k last week - below estimates of 240k and down from the upwardly revised 250k in the prior week. ISM's Services PMI was also stronger than expected, underscored by a rebound in the closely-watched employment index. Continuing Jobless Claims were weaker-than-expected, however, rising to the highest since November 2021. Benchmark yields recovered as calls for \"emergency\" rate cuts subsided, while markets received clarity on the domestic presidential election matchup, with Kamala Harris selecting Tim Walz as her running mate. The 10-Year Treasury Yield jumped by 15 basis points to close at 3.94%, while the policy-sensitive 2-Year Treasury Yield rose 17 basis points to 4.05%. Swaps markets now price-in 1.49 rate cuts in September (down from 1.74 last week) and 4.11 rate cuts by the end of the year (down from 4.67 implied last week). iREIT®+HOYA Capital Real Estate Economic Data Below, we recap the most important macroeconomic data points over this past week affecting the residential and commercial real estate marketplace. iREIT®+HOYA Capital Equity REIT & Homebuilder Week In Review Best & Worst Performance This Week Across the REIT Sector iREIT®+HOYA Capital As analyzed this week in our REIT Earnings Scorecard report, real estate earnings season wrapped-up this week with results from the final three dozen equity REITs and a dozen mortgage REITs. Amid an otherwise underwhelming earnings season across the broader equity market, REIT earnings results were notably better than expected. Of the 96 equity REITs that provide full-year FFO guidance, 57 (59%) raised their outlook, while 13 (14%) lowered - well above the historical second-quarter average \"raise rate\" of 40-45%. By comparison, FactSet reports that 53% of the 272 S&P 500 constituents that provided Earnings Per Share (\"EPS\") guidance issued a positive revision. Last earnings season, 41% of REITs raised their outlook, while 11% lowered. Upside surprises at the property-sector level included Strip Centers, Sunbelt Apartment, NYC/Sunbelt Office, Senior Housing, and Industrial REITs. Favorable expense trends (disinflation) and moderating supply growth drove incremental upside. Losers included Self-Storage, Hotel, Timber/Farmland, and Mortgage REITs. The West Coast - particularly California - was a region of notable weakness, especially in the office sector. Below, we highlight some of the notable highlights from the past week across the REIT sector. iREIT®+HOYA Capital Office: A relatively strong earnings season for the battered office sector wrapped this week, showing an encouraging rebound in leasing demand across many major markets outside of the tech-heavy West Coast. NYC-focused Vornado Realty (VNO) - the second-largest office REIT - soared 9% after reporting very strong results highlighted by impressive leasing volumes and rent growth, alongside a very strong valuation print on the $350M sale of its street retail space at 666 Fifth Avenue to Uniqlo at a 3.0% implied cap rate. On the leasing front, VNO signed 1.32M SF of NYC office space, up sharply from the 291k in the first quarter. Pricing was also solid, with VNO achieving cash mark-to-market rent growth of +3.4% on these leases, up from +2.4% in the first quarter. Tenant improvement (\"TI\") allowances were also down sharply to 5.0% of initial rent from 14.5% in the first quarter. Perhaps more importantly, VNO announced that it sold its 52% JV interest in the street retail at 666 Fifth Avenue for $350M, implying a cap rate of 3.0%. On the downside, West Coast-focused Hudson Pacific (HPP) slid 16% after reporting disappointing results, showing continued vacancy pressures across its San Francisco and Los Angeles markets and the lack of any meaningful rebound in its studio assets. Despite solid leasing activity of 540k SF - its most since Q2 2022 - HPP reported further deterioration in its occupancy rates and sharp declines in rents, with occupancy sliding to 78.7% and cash re-leasing spreads of -13.3%, each the worst on record for the company. Of the office REITs that provide full-year FFO guidance, 8 of the 12 raised their full-year outlook. iREIT®+HOYA Capital Mall: Simon Property (SPG) - the largest mall owner in the world - rallied 5% this week after reporting solid second-quarter results, raising its full-year guidance, and hiking its dividend for the third time this year. SPG raised its quarterly dividend to $2.05/share - a 2.5% increase from its prior dividend - and is now just fractionally below its pre-pandemic dividend of $2.10/share in 2019. Citing \"increased leasing volumes, occupancy gains, shopper traffic, and the company's highest level of real estate NOI,\" SPG lifted its full-year FFO growth outlook to 2.7 - up from 2.5% in its prior forecast - to levels that are roughly 4% above its full-year 2019 FFO. SPG did not update its NOI guidance which calls for \"at least 3% domestic NOI growth,\" but it is trending well ahead of this forecast with YTD NOI growth of 4.5%. Leasing activity was solid once again, driving an increase in total portfolio occupancy to 95.6%, up 90 basis points from last year. SPG doesn't provide leasing spreads, but noted that base rents grew 3.0% year-over-year, which was steady with last quarter. SPG noted that retail sales per square foot declined 1% year-on-year, but overall sales were up 2% and traffic up 5% from last year during the quarter. iREIT®+HOYA Capital Healthcare: One of the most closely-watched reports this earnings season, embattled hospital owner Medical Properties Trust (MPW) slipped 1% on the week after reporting messy second-quarter results amid the continued fallout of the bankruptcy of its largest tenant, Steward Healthcare. After slashing its dividend by 50% last year, MPW announced that it will \"limit\" its cash dividend to $0.08/share - down from its current $0.15/share dividend - as a covenant under its amended credit facility effective through September 2025. Confirming reporting last week, MPW recognized a \"full impairment\" of its $550M equity ownership in the eight Steward-operated hospitals in Massachusetts after failed negotiations with state regulators, which MPW says would only agree to approve the transfer of the operating license - and by extension the real property - to an \"in-state, not-for-profit operator.\" Positively, MPW noted that its non-Steward tenants remain up-to-date on rent payments, including its other troubled operator Prospect, which fully paid its first and second-quarter rents. MPW highlighted that it has executed $2.5B in asset sales this year - above its $2B full-year target - which has been used to pay down $1.5B in debt, addressing all of its 2024 and 2025 maturities. iREIT®+HOYA Capital Healthcare: Sticking in the healthcare space, Sabra Health Care (SBRA) - which owns a mix of skilled nursing and senior housing facilities - gained 1.5% after reporting solid results and raising its full-year FFO guidance, driven by strength in its senior housing segment. SBRA now expects full-year FFO growth of 7.1%- up from 6.0% previously - and reiterated \"mid-to-high-teens\" NOI growth for its senior housing operating portfolio (\"SHOP\"). Skilled nursing trends have also improved over the past several quarters, with occupancy jumping 150bps in Q2 to 79.0%, which helped to lift tenant rent coverage to 1.85x from 1.79x last quarter. Including SBRA, three of the four SNF REITs raised their full-year FFO outlook this quarter. Robust senior performance was also a common theme across the sector, with guidance raises from all three senior housing-focused REITs, including small-cap National Health Investors (NHI) this week, which gained 0.5% after significantly raising its full-year FFO growth outlook to 4.8% from 1.6% previously, citing \"stable cash collections, steady deferral repayments, improving operator fundamentals, SHOP occupancy and revenue growth, and no unexpected rent concessions.\" Results from Medical office building (\"MOB\") REITs weren't as impressive. Small-cap Global Medical (GMRE) slumped 4.5% after reporting downbeat results showing modest sequential occupancy and rent coverage declines. Overall, seven of the ten healthcare REITs that provide full-year FFO guidance raised their outlook, the best \"raise rate\" for the sector in several years. iREIT®+HOYA Capital Billboard: We heard results from both billboard REITs, which had been under renewed pressure in recent weeks amid concern over the recession-sensitivity of advertising spending. Both billboard REITs - Lamar Advertising (LAMR) and Outfront Media (OUT) - finished roughly flat this week after reporting decent results and maintaining their full-year outlook, showing resilience in overall Out-of-Home (\"OOH\") advertising spending - particularly in their local and regional segments - but acknowledging some pull-back in spending from national advertisers. Outfront reported particularly strong demand from local advertisers and a rebound in its pandemic-slammed \"transit\" segment. OUT's local segment posted year-over-year revenue growth of 7.0% - a slight moderation from the 7.5% last quarter - while its national segment was roughly flat - an improvement from the -2.3% in Q1. Billboard revenues were up 2.3%, while transit revenue was up nearly 11%, driven by \"particularly impressive growth in the New York MTA\" following a severe stretch of weakness during the pandemic. Also of note, OUT maintained its dividend at $0.30/share, and noted that it will likely pay a larger dividend later in the year \"for REIT compliance,\" due in part to its sale of its Canadian business. Meanwhile, Lamar reported that its local segment posted 5% growth, while its national segment declined by -2.5%, but it did note that \"activity from national customers in the form of RFPs has been up recently, and we are hopeful that we will see that business turn as we head into 2025.\" Notably, LAMR noted that if the anticipated jump in political spending plays out as expected, it should see \"some upside that is not yet reflected\" in its FFO outlook. iREIT®+HOYA Capital Net Lease: A generally solid earnings season for the net lease REIT sector also wrapped-up with reports from the final half-dozen names. Realty Income (O) - the largest net lease REIT - gained 2% this week after it reported in-line results and maintained its full-year outlook calling for FFO growth of 3.5%, noting \"continued momentum and acceleration compared to the first quarter.\" Remaining as active as ever on the acquisitions front, O acquired $806.8M in properties in the second quarter alone at an average cap rate of 7.9%, up from its first-quarter activity of $598M at a 7.8% cap rate. O reiterated its full-year outlook for $3B in acquisitions, having completed $1.4B through the end of Q2. O also reiterated its FFO outlook, calling for full-year FFO growth of 3.5%, an acceleration from the 0.7% increase in 2023. Leasing activity remained solid, with O noting that its rent recapture rate accelerated to 105.7% in Q2 - up from 104.3% in Q1 - and increased its portfolio occupancy to 98.8% in Q2 - up from 98.6% in Q1. Global Net Lease (GNL) slipped 5% despite reporting relatively solid results - highlighted by a continued reduction in leverage to 8.1x following another $50M in dispositions over the past month, pacing to achieve its year-end target of 7.4–7.8x. iREIT®+HOYA Capital Apartment: Are the animal spirits coming alive? Equity Residential (EQR) - the second-largest apartment REIT - gained 2% this week after announcing a $964M deal to acquire 11 apartment properties from Blackstone (BX) and its affiliates in one of the largest acquisitions of the year across the REIT space. The 11 properties - totaling 3,572 units - are located in EQR's expansion markets of Atlanta, Dallas, and Denver. Pricing implies a going-in cap rate of approximately 5%, a favorable read-through for Sunbelt multifamily valuations. For EQR - the most \"coastal-focused\" of the major apartment REITs excluding the West Coast pure-play Essex (ESS) - the deal increases its total exposure to these expansion markets to roughly 9% from 6%, marking progress towards its long-term target exposure of 25%. In the release, EQR reaffirmed the earnings guidance provided last week. For Blackstone and its flagship nontraded fund, Blackstone Income REIT, the deal represents the sixth major portfolio sale to a public REIT since BREIT was forced to limit investor withdrawals amid a surge in redemption requests. During this time, however, Blackstone has continued to scoop-up additional REITs, including two residential acquisitions earlier this year: Apartment Income and Tricon. iREIT®+HOYA Capital Mortgage REIT Weekly Recap Under pressure of late from the sudden surge in interest rate volatility, mortgage REITs outperformed their equity REIT peers this week as earnings season wrapped up with a generally more positive slate of reports. The Mortgage REIT ETF (MORT) finished higher by 0.2% this week, as strength from residential mREITs offset ongoing pressure on commercial mREITs. On the upside this week, credit-focused residential mREIT MFA Financial (MFA) surged nearly 8% after reporting that its distributable EPS rose to $0.44 - easily covering its $0.35/share dividend - while its Book Value Per Share (\"BVPS\") was flat during the quarter. Ellington Financial (EFC) - which also focuses on residential credit strategies - rallied nearly 3% after reporting a sector-best 1.7% increase in its BVPS, and noted that its EPS rose to $0.33 and commented that it \"feels great about maintaining the dividend where it is.\" Chimera Investment (CIM) - another credit-focused mREIT - also gained 3% after reporting that its BVPS was roughly flat in Q2, and recorded EPS of $0.37 - covering its $0.35/share dividend. Results from agency-focused residential mREITs were weaker, however, including reports this week from Cherry Hill (CHMI) and Invesco Mortgage (IVR), which each reported a roughly 8% dip in their BVPS, with IVR noting that \"agency mortgage under-performed compared to treasury hedges, especially in higher coupons, which were more affected by volatility and seasonal increases in supply.\" iREIT®+HOYA Capital Commercial mREITs - especially those with significant office REIT exposure - were laggards this week as results showed continued stress from defaults. Claros Mortgage (CMTG) slid 10% after reporting downbeat results and reducing its dividend by 60% to $0.10/share, becoming the 12th REIT to lower its dividend this year, while 60 REITs have raised their payouts. CMTG reported that its BVPS declined by 2%, impacted by an $88M NYC land loan that it placed on nonaccrual status and by the downgrade of three additional loans to a four-risk rating, representing a total carrying value of $370M. Elsewhere, Granite Point (GPMT) - among the most office-exposed mREITs - dipped 7% after reporting a sharp 12% dip in its BVPS due to the downgrade of a $120M Denver office loan and $82M across an additional pair of office and hotel loans. GPMT noted, however, that it, \"believes we are getting closer to the end of this period of extreme market stresses and further potential credit issues.\" Starwood Property (STWD) - the largest commercial mREIT - was among the upside standouts this week, however, after reporting that its BVPS was roughly flat in the second-quarter and reiterated confidence in its dividend, maintaining its payouts for the third and fourth quarters. iREIT®+HOYA Capital 2024 Performance Recap Performance trends have shifted dramatically over the past month, as the long-underperforming real estate sector has quickly closed the gap with other segments of the equity market amid a sharp pull-back in benchmark interest rates. As we enter mid-August, the Equity REIT Index is now higher by 5.3% this year, while the Mortgage REIT Index is higher by 1.2%. This compares with the 12.8% gain on the S&P 500, the 6.3% gain for the Mid-Cap 400, and the 2.3% gain for the Small-Cap 600. Within the REIT sector, 13 of the 18 property sectors are higher for the year, led by Healthcare, Residential, and Retail REITs - while Hotel, Timber, and Farmland REITs have lagged on the downside. At 3.93%, the 10-Year Treasury Yield is now higher by 6 basis points on the year, but the 2-Year Treasury Yield has plunged by 38 basis points to 3.88%. The aggregate Bloomberg US Bond Index is now higher by 2.4% this year. WTI Crude Oil is higher by 14.4% this year, but the broader Commodities complex remains lower by 0.4% on the year as higher oil prices have been offset by a dip in Natural Gas prices. iREIT®+HOYA Capital Economic Calendar In The Week Ahead A critical slate of inflation data is the highlight of the economic calendar in the week ahead. The main event comes on Wednesday morning with the Consumer Price Index for July, which investors and the Fed are hoping will show a cooling of inflationary pressures. Last month, CPI posted a downside surprise for a third straight month, following a trend of hotter-than-expected reports earlier this year. The Headline CPI is expected to have a \"2-handle\" for the first time since March 2021, moderating to a 2.9% year-over-year rate - down from 3.0% last month. We'll likely see some moderation in the critical shelter component, and stable trends in gasoline prices - the key \"swing\" inflation input - which was essentially flat in July despite the uptick in crude oil prices. Gas prices nationally averaged $3.48/gallon in July - up 1% from a month earlier, but still down about 10% since the start of 2024 and are up nearly 50% from January 2021. Earlier in the week on Tuesday, we'll see the Producer Price Index, which is expected to show renewed downward pressure on wholesale prices following a mid-year acceleration. Core PPI is expected to tick lower to 2.7% in July from 3.0% in the prior month. We'll also see a busy week of housing market data, including NAHB Homebuilder Sentiment data on Thursday, and Housing Starts and Building Permits on Friday. We'll also see Retail Sales data for July on Thursday - a key look at the health of the U.S. consumer - which is expected to show a modest rebound in spending after a downbeat report last month. Finally, we'll get our first look at August Consumer Sentiment data from the University of Michigan on Friday, which is expected to rebound slightly following a mid-year plunge. iREIT®+HOYA Capital For an in-depth analysis of all real estate sectors, check out all of our quarterly reports: Apartments, Homebuilders, Manufactured Housing, Student Housing, Single-Family Rentals, Cell Towers, Casinos, Industrial, Data Center, Malls, Healthcare, Net Lease, Shopping Centers, Hotels, Billboards, Office, Farmland, Storage, Timber, Mortgage, and Cannabis. Disclosure: Hoya Capital Real Estate advises two Exchange-Traded Funds listed on the NYSE. In addition to any long positions listed below, Hoya Capital is long all components in the Hoya Capital Housing 100 Index and in the Hoya Capital High Dividend Yield Index. Index definitions and a complete list of holdings are available on our website. iREIT®+HOYA Capital   Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2458269635"}