Will Crypto Cream Rise To The Top?

seekingalpha2024-08-15

Mike Fay shares why the crypto market is difficult to navigate these days.ETF flows in Ethereum. Where Bitcoin is going long-term.Importance of paying attention to presidential candidates' views on ...

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Where Bitcoin is going long-term.Importance of paying attention to presidential candidates' views on ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4714506-will-crypto-cream-rise-to-the-top\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":null,"symbol_name":null,"start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4714506-will-crypto-cream-rise-to-the-top","article_id":"2459102488","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1383032511/image_1383032511.jpg"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2459102488","pubTimestamp":1723652400,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Mike Fay shares why the crypto market is difficult to navigate these days.ETF flows in Ethereum. Where Bitcoin is going long-term.Importance of paying attention to presidential candidates' views on crypto and the impact on the industry.Why miners are great for trading and cycles.   PM Images Listen here or on the go via Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Mike Fay shares why the crypto market is difficult to navigate these days . ETF flow story in Ethereum, lack of investor interest and price action . 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PM Images Listen here or on the go via Apple Podcasts and Spotify \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nMike Fay shares why the crypto market is difficult to navigate these days (0:40). ETF flow story in Ethereum, lack of investor interest and price action (4:00). Most crypto isn't investable - but what is? (8:50) Where Bitcoin is going long-term (10:20). Why miners are great for trading and cycles (14:00). Bitcoin ETFs - there's one for everybody (23:20) Presidential candidates on crypto - why we have to pay attention (30:10). Transcript Rena Sherbill: Mike Fay, crypto expert extraordinaire. Great to have you on the podcast. Great to have you talking on Seeking Alpha. Thanks for making the time. Mike Fay: Thanks for having me. It's a pleasure to be back. RS: Likewise, it's a pleasure to have you back on. I feel like a great time to have you back on as somebody who knows the crypto markets. Given the volatility that we're seeing and perhaps some confusion, how are you thinking, how are you articulating, how are you sharing with other investors how you're looking at the crypto markets these days? MF: Man, that's a tough question to answer. So, I think that what we've seen from just, you know, a lot of macro analysts that many of them say that this is a very difficult market to navigate this. The conditions make it a tough one to kind of figure out. And I would say the same is true for crypto. Something that I've been expecting to happen for a few years has been all of these assets, all of these digital tokens and trinkets, whatever you want to call them, many of them exist for no real reason, to put it lightly. So I've been expecting sort of a cream rises to the top type of situation for a while. And I think most of us who have been in this space for longer than just a few years have expected that it would be Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and ETH (ETH-USD) as the clear 1 and 2, depending on what you're looking for as an investor. Better or worse, Bitcoin is viewed as digital gold. ETH is arguably digital gas. I think what we've seen lately is, ETH is not as compelling maybe as it was a year or two ago when rates were 0 and you had the ability to earn yield and use DeFi protocols that offer lending and borrowing and liquidity providing and being able to earn yield off of being an LP or also just transaction fees from using an application token. That has, I think that the case for that has lessened a bit in a higher rate environment when you can get 5% on a US T bill. So Bitcoin is not proof of stake. It has nothing – as of right now, validation isn't really determined by fees. It's determined by issuance, even though that issuance is declining over time and every 4 years gets cut in half. It's interesting. Well, I guess, I'll sum this up by saying, for I think, several years we've believed that not only could ETH possibly pass Bitcoin as the top coin in the market, but we've kind of looked at ETH and Bitcoin as the one and two, however you want to put them in that order. I'm not sure ETH is going to be the number two 10 years from now. And I think that it has taken longer for some of the meme coins that I thought would unwind. They haven't done so. You could argue that most of what's driving the market, in addition to just investment capital flows, has been memes and who can make the best memes. It's an interesting time. And it's a difficult time, but it's fun. RS: Yeah, like any burgeoning industry, where we're feeling it out and figuring it out in real time. We had Ryan Wilday on from Crypto Waves a couple of days ago, and he was talking about the concerning price action around Ethereum and the lack of interest and his lack of excitement. How would you articulate why it hasn't done as well, where you think -- I know you mentioned in 10 years you don't know if it's going to be number 2. What about in the next few years? How do you see it developing? And what would you say to how would you contextualize what's happening price wise there and then kind of broadly speaking. MF: Sure. Yeah, so that's interesting. He said that he wasn't excited about it? RS: He sure did. MF: Huh. Okay. Well… RS: And also that -- and also that broadly speaking, there's a lack of interest given the ETFs that have come into market. MF: Yeah, he's right on the money with that. I think that the ETF flow story has been – no one, I don't think expected it to be to the degree that Bitcoin was, where Bitcoin I would say was a very large success. That scaled up AUM very quickly, far surpassed, I think, what even some of the most lofty expectations were. We've seen the opposite with ETH. No one believed that it would do what Bitcoin did. I think that I thought that we would see maybe somewhere in the area of 20% to 30% of the demand that Bitcoin had. But now we're several weeks into this and the net flow is negative because what we've seen happen is the same dynamic with the grayscale fund where that fee is not competitive with the new ETFs. We've seen asset migration from the grayscale ETH fund, and we haven't seen all of it go into the other lower cost funds. So I believe as of August 12th, the net flow is about 400 million to the downside negative for ETH. So that shows you clear as day the investment demand for Ethereum is not there. Bitcoin has been up and down a little bit. So, I think that what -- there's two things that I think that are impacting the price action. And one of them is industry-wide, it's capital flows. A lot of this stuff is not being used and adopted to the degree that I think even the most bullish on chain proponents would like it to be. It's just not the case. I'm not seeing that in the data. I see Bitcoin has less daily active addresses than it did pre-ETF approval. And that’s an industry-wide thing, the capital flows. But in addition to that, Ethereum specifically, I think is more at risk in that scenario because fees are an important part of the bull case. When you have a large amount of usage, it leads to fees. And because of the way that the blockchain itself is constructed with all the improvement proposals that have gone through in recent years, a lot of usage of Ethereum leads -- makes ETH the token be deflationary. That's not the case anymore. I suspect it's in part because maybe not even in part, mostly because the demand for ETH that would have been there to pay transaction fees is no longer as strong because after the Dencun upgrade in the spring, it's much cheaper to use the layer 2 chains that are built on top of Ethereum. So what that has done is that it's taken some of the fees that would have been paid by the L2 chain operators to the main chain that has gone away. And so we've actually seen in the last 30 days where Ethereum was by far one of the largest chain in terms of fees, TRON (TRON-USD) has actually now passed Ethereum for fees in the last 30 days. So I think for Ethereum specifically, there's an issue of usage in the way that the blockchain is currently constructed from a fee inflationary-deflationary dynamic, investors may be losing interest. And then on top of what I said about the T-bills, we may be seeing that coming down now in September, but even at 3%, if they go, if Powell goes crazy here and goes 200 bps, which I don't think he will do, you still have a rate on the T-bills that's higher than what you would get from staking Ethereum. RS: Sticking for a second on the volatility and the price action that we're looking at in Bitcoin and Ethereum and then maybe around the sector, to investors and observers that are still kind of pooh-poohing the crypto environment and that use this volatility as a reason or an excuse to show that crypto is not a worthy investment or a stable investment. What do you say to investors and observers that put it like that? MF: Well, most of it isn't. I mean, most of the stuff in this space is not good. It's not what I would call investable. I would counter that with what has been good in the last 3 years outside of about 5 or 7 stocks. And I think that anyone who's being honest with themselves would say, not much. I mean, the Russell hasn't gone anywhere for 3 years, with the exception of these last few weeks. Is this the beginning of a rotation trade into small caps? I don't know. I would love that because I like dividend paying stocks as much as the next investor. But crypto isn't unlike any other asset class. There's a lot of crap. There's a lot of good stuff. The key is finding the right approach for yourself and the right assets that have a fundamental story. A lot of them don't have a strong fundamental case. And what we've seen is these fundamental cases can change over time. RS: So how would you put it in regards to Bitcoin? How do you see this next year developing? How do you see the next few years developing? And to your point about Ethereum in 10 years, where do you see Bitcoin in 10 years? MF: So I think that Bitcoin, a lot of people are not going to like me after this, but that's okay. Bitcoin is a awesome idea. It is a just as much of a meme as Dogecoin is at this point. And that doesn't mean it doesn't mean it will go down. I think that the supporters of it have done a very good job of framing it as though it's an anti-fiat asset, which is true. I think that people like myself who would make the case that you can make any number of digital assets that have a fixed supply and you could pick any fixed supply that you like, the reality is Bitcoin has been forked dozens of times and many of those currencies or blockchains, I should say, have I would say stronger utility than Bitcoin does for the way Bitcoin was initially intended. But I think that Bitcoin actually is going to survive this long term. I think that the idea of what it is and what it enables is strong enough because it's an anti-fiat bet. Is Bitcoin scalable on chain to the point where anyone can send BTC to a friend overseas? No, it's not. And you can do that, but you're going to have to pay a high fee that may be cost prohibitive to the overall value of the transaction. What it is good at is being an asset that can't be created or controlled by any sovereign nation or independent actor. I would say where Bitcoiners should be careful is with the mining space getting too centralized. And we're going to see how that shakes out here as this on the back end of this halving cycle. But I think just Bitcoin is a belief and an idea. And I think that that belief is still as strong as ever. So, whether it's used as a currency or not, which is no longer even the goal, doesn't really matter, it's still the prime example of a non-state currency or non-state asset that can be used without an intermediary. And in that way, it's a big success. RS: What would you say the likelihood is of another coin taking over Bitcoin? MF: I would say probably not. I don't think that that's going to happen at this point. If it did, it would have to have a similar ethos with a hard cap unit of account. And I don't see Ethereum doing that at this point. When it was deflationary, you could have talked me into it. But I don't think that's going to happen. You would need a smart contract chain that's used for just about everything. And it would have to take away from the fragmentation that we're seeing in the space right now. And I don't think that's likely. RS: In terms of the miners, what are your thoughts on the miners? How do you couch that for investors? Are there more worthy ones than others? Are you a fan of the kind of more popular miners that are out there? MF: I think that miners are awesome for trading. I think that they are great for cycles. If you want to take swings during cycles, then that's great. And I've been bullish… RS: Can you explain that for investors? MF: Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah. So because of the supply fix, the hard cap, the miners have a problem in their business model. And I actually talk a little bit about this in a HUT 8 (HUT) article that should be hopefully coming out by the time you guys are listening to this. The problem ultimately is very simple. There is a fixed rate of emissions and over time that that emission will go down. So when you're validating transactions as a miner, you're getting a smaller amount of BTC as time goes on. This is okay if the dollar value of the Bitcoin doubles in line with the decay of the issuance. However, even if that were to happen, which is not a guarantee, you still need some way for the miners to have an incentive to mine. And when the supply is completely gone, there's no longer an incentive unless they're being paid in transaction fees. So right now, fees as a percentage of miner revenue is very low. We've seen times over the last several years where they have spiked up to higher levels, closer to the 20% range. But it's not been sticky and it's been very volatile there. But the overall trend has been for miners to be paid through issuance. And there's clearly a shelf life on that. I think that what we'll see is, there's this idea that global hash rate is going to keep going up forever. I'm not sold on that. I think we'll actually see global hash rate kind of plateau at a certain level. I don't know what that level is going to be, but I think it will lead to consolidation in that space. I think you're going to see public miners who have the ability to raise cash through offerings and convertible notes and things like that. I think they're going to have an easier time scaling and keeping up than some of the private ones will. And so I think what you'll see is a lot of the mining hash will be in publicly-owned companies. So are there investable opportunities there? I would say possibly -- currently, I don't think that any of them are great long-term investments. I think some of them do interesting things as secondary segments on top of their self-hosted mining. One that I've been in and out of many times is Marathon Digital (MARA). CleanSpark (CLSK) has a compelling story as well. Hut 8 I'm not a fan of any longer. And there's only one miner that I'm even holding right now. And that's Bit Digital (BTBT). And Bit Digital is a small cap. It's risky. It's speculative. The chart looks terrible, but it has a very large Ethereum stack. It has a decent Bitcoin stack. It's a small mining capacity company, but they're one of the few Bitcoin miners publicly that have been able to transition from Bitcoin miner only to meaningful HPC services revenue. And they're actually generating about 4 million to 5 million in monthly compute revenue from their AI -- generative AI services. So there's a lot of hype in that space. A lot of the miners are trying to do that. Bit Digital is one of them that actually is. Ticker is BTBT. Again, full disclosure, I own this one. It's one that I actually do like as a small speculative play. But some of the other miners, I think that the story there has been dilution. So when these miners need to raise cash, because a lot of them operate at a negative all in cost. I think a lot of the investors look at the headline number and don't actually do all of the math and see what the company is actually spending. Yes, energy cost is what is important for most of these companies, but there’s also SG&A, there's also other expenses. If they've issued debt, they're servicing that debt. So the all-in cost of a lot of these miners is still very high. So I think that it takes a much higher Bitcoin price than the 60,000 where it currently is to make those truly investable opportunities. RS: And what are your thoughts on ETFs? Well, actually, I wanted to ask you about your Hut 8. Why did you change course there? MF: So the Hut 8 is one of the companies and I'll give them credit. They've been on ahead of the HPC thing even before AI craze really took off. And the reason for that is because there was a significant share of their revenue was coming from Ethereum mining, which unlike Bitcoin using ASICs, Ethereum mining was done with GPUs. So they had to figure out how do we monetize these GPUs that can't mine Ethereum anymore? HIVE Digital Technologies is very much in the same boat here and even to a larger degree. I've been expecting HUT to be able to grow that AI compute, or HPC services revenue and it's actually lower. This recent quarter was lower than it was 2 years ago. So, I don't think that's a good sign. Their monthly production is very low. They're in the bottom. There's 10 miners that have more BTC production than they have in the public markets alone. And the market cap is about a billion, and half of that is because they have about -- that's their BTC stack. They have a large BTC stack, but it's become pledged as collateral. So there's even a chance that if they run into some issues here, that stack will go lower. And then the market cap, if it stays where it is from a ratio standpoint, it'll go down. RS: So getting back to the Bitcoin ETFs, I'm curious what you thought was going to happen maybe in January before they came out or at the beginning. What are your thoughts now and how would you encourage investors, especially retail investors to think about those ETFs. MF: I think that they're actually really useful for retail investors. If you're a retail investor and you want to grab a couple thousand bucks in Bitcoin, then you can pay Coinbase (COIN) 1% to do that transaction or you can pay BlackRock 20 bps to do the same. If you really want to take it to a self-custodial wallet, that's fine. But for Bitcoin to work long term, fees have to become a larger portion of miner incentive. And if fees become a larger portion of miner incentive, then small values of Bitcoin on chain can theoretically become unmovable if they can't pay the transaction fee. And that's already the case. We've already seen that happen with a large amount of Bitcoin wallet addresses that have like, let's say less than $30 in the wallet. When Bitcoin fees spike to $50 and that's happened this year several times, those wallet addresses are essentially dust. They're useless. You can't do anything with them. Over time, fees have to become a larger share of miner revenue, which means any Bitcoin held in a wallet has to be significant. It's becoming a chain that you need to be able to pay a significant price to be able to actually use it. So for a retail investor, I think the ETFs are fine. And I think that in addition to them being cheap, you can buy them in a tax advantaged account, which if you buy Bitcoin and you self-custody it, if you sell it, you owe taxes on that. RS: Yeah, it's a big deal in terms of the taxes. There's been a lot of talk about that that there's, or I've seen maybe more comments than I usually do about taxes and how that should affect kind of how investors and where investors put their money. How would you categorize or would you categorize or would you tier up the different Bitcoin ETFs? How do you think about them? MF: I wouldn't say that there are any that I don't like. I think that they're really similar products. If you are a, there's really one for everybody. If you don't care and you want to go with the cheapest one, go with the cheapest one. I think right now that's the Franklin (EZBC), I believe, is their waiver hasn't expired yet. Most of these fee waivers have expired. Long-term, I think that BlackRock (IBIT) is like, I think like 20 basis points right now. And that's a weighted one because their waiver did expire. That will ultimately go to 25, I believe. I like Fidelity (FBTC) personally. And the reason why I like Fidelity is because I'm planning to hold it in there for a long time. And I trust Fidelity because they've been in the digital asset space for a long time. They didn't flip-flop on this within the last 24 months. They've been there. They have a research department that knows the space very well, and they're self-custodying the asset. So over time, if what I just described plays out where retail has to choose the ETF over buying directly from a platform like Coinbase, We've already seen Coinbase's percentage of retail volume go down to about 20, where 2 years ago it was 80%. So the institutional money is most of the volume from Coinbase. The problem then is that Coinbase's margin on that volume is significantly smaller than the margin on retail. So at some point, they're going to probably have to raise those fees. And if they raise those fees, then it means those ETFs are getting expensive. They're going to get more expensive over time. Fidelity doesn't have to do that because they're doing it themselves. RS: What are your thoughts on Coinbase, the stock? I know you've written about them. Is it similar? MF: I would love Coinbase if it was priced a bit lower. I think that Coinbase is one of the more interesting stocks in the crypto space. I've been in and out as a trade. I don't currently hold it. But I see this being in almost a, I don't want to say a too big to fail because that's not the right phrase. It's a very important part of this ecosystem, especially domestically. So I expect that it will be going forward as well. But I would like it to be cheaper. RS: How much cheaper? MF: Last I looked, it was about 10 times sales. I don't know, we can cut that in half and I'd be more interested. RS: Thoughts on Ethereum ETFs? MF: Same situation for Bitcoin. I like the Fidelity one. That's one that I plan to hold long term, assuming that Fidelity's bull case holds up, which I'm less convinced of than with Bitcoin. But I haven't explored the Ethereum ETFs as much because as your last guest described, it's less interesting. RS: Yes. Yes. Quote unquote. What else would you want to say or would you want to share with investors about other coins? I know you recently wrote about Litecoin on Seeking Alpha. What else or how else would you share things over there? MF: I think that it just depends on how you view yourself. And there's nothing wrong, in my opinion, with speculating. There's nothing wrong with - and I flipped on this. I thought that Dogecoin was ridiculous. I thought that Bonk and things like that are ridiculous. But if you find a market that you understand and you know, then go for it. Speculate all you want. Just know which game you're playing. And if you are in it for more of an investment approach and don't care about silly stuff, then look at things like price to fees ratios. That's what I follow specifically with the smart contract blockchains that are dependent on fees, especially the proof of stake ones. RS: And why is that important? Why is that your first go-to? MF: I like price to fees because it's close to how I view the incentive model going long term. So if all these distributed ledgers are going to be viable, then there has to be an incentive for validating the transactions. And that's what a fee is, or it's what the issuance is. Some of them do both. Like Solana does both. It's new issuance and it's fees. But I think as a way to compare them to each other, price to fees is a good start. RS: And go on, you were going to continue with, I think, another. MF: Yeah. And look for things that actually have growing usage. I mean, one of the reasons why I like Litecoin, and I get dunked on for liking Litecoin, it's fine. I don't care. If you look at it on a value transferred, annualize the value, the US dollar denominated value transferred over the network, annualize it and divide the market cap by that. You're not going to find many coins that are cheaper. Meaning, for the economic activity that this chain is producing, the price of the coin itself is too cheap relative to peers. Bitcoin trades at about three times what Litecoin trades at from a NVT standpoint. Now you could argue, and probably rightly, that well, Bitcoin's digital goal is not about payments anymore. But again, someone's got to get paid to keep these networks afloat. So at some point, these things will matter. So in addition to Litecoin, I like things that solve a problem, that have utility. And some of those things are strictly in the idea phase. They're not proven yet. I still think that privacy coins are critical or privacy protocols in some way. Because if you believe this idea that everything that we do is going to be on chain, then there has to be privacy. There just has to be, because you don't want everyone knowing when you spent 10 bucks on a sandwich at Wendy's. RS: Yeah. Speaking to sussing out what matters and what doesn't matter, what are your thoughts about this election season that we're in and how some candidates are obviously pro-crypto, some may be, some might not be. What are your thoughts there? Does it matter? Does it matter to you? Should it matter to investors? MF: I think, I think it, I mean, you have to look at it. You have to pay attention to it. I think that there's a clear correlation between when there was softness in the crypto market and when Harris' polymarket odds improved, I think that we could debate whether or not Donald Trump is sincere about Bitcoin or whether he's pandering. I don't think we could debate that the Biden administration and by extension, we could reasonably expect the Harris administration to be like has been highly combative with the industry. I think that if you're a single issue voter and you're voting only on crypto, you're either voting Trump or you're voting RFK Jr. RS: Do you think there are many single issue voters on crypto? MF: I do. I think it's a much bigger block than people realize. RS: What else do you feel like is important to share with investors in terms of looking at this space? MF: I think, broadly with any investment idea, I think that you just have to get comfortable in sitting down and doing some research. I think that what I've witnessed over the last several years has been way too much shilling from people on YouTube, people on Twitter, just obvious scams that are overall harming the image of what this industry can be. So don't, in my opinion, don't treat crypto investment the same way you, or treat it the same way you would treat a long-term stock portfolio. Don't go to the pink sheets. Like buy good assets, buy them at a price that makes sense. Figure out what that multiple is for you. It might be different for you. There's a lot of really good research out there and a lot of it's on Seeking Alpha. RS: Boom. Where did you start your crypto journey/or and/or what do you think or what do you feel was the most important thing or piece that you took into your crypto education? MF: So, yeah, that's a great question. Well, I guess first hearing about Bitcoin and starting the journey were very different times. I think I started seeing it around the Cyprus 10 years ago is when it came on my radar when it started going up because of the Cyprus bank situation. And I tried to buy some then, but it was too difficult. And I didn't trust the way that I would have had to buy it. There was no Coinbase at the time. It was very difficult. You know, just like, ah, whatever. And then I heard about it again in 2016. I've been a gold guy for a while. So, you know, when I think the first time I encountered a real life Bitcoiner in person was 2016. It was over dinner. We were having a, my wife and I were dating on a double date with one of her work friends and her husband. And he started talking about Bitcoin and I was just, okay, tell me, like, pitch me this because I've heard about this. I know about this to a degree, but pitch it to me. And I spent most of 2016 and early 2017 saying why I thought the rise was kind of ridiculous. And then I waited until after the blow up in late 2017 to start scaling a bit of a position in 2018. And since then I've had a core position the whole time, but I've just kind of taken swing trades in and out and mainly dollar cost averaged on that core position in reasonable amounts, I don't think that it makes sense to go, even I'm in my thirties, I still don't think that it makes sense to put more than like 5% to 10% in the space because you just don't know. And it's still all just such an idea. So that's kind of when it started. That's when I started to get involved. I've gone back and forth on how I view the scalability problem that I see. And it's just, it’s very interesting space. And I'm happy to follow it. RS: It is an interesting space. And one of my favorite things to watch are burgeoning industries for anybody that listens to me on the podcast knows that. But I find it fascinating how things start, how things grow, how they develop, how we as investors can get involved and learn a lot of lessons along the way. It's sometimes very painful, but certainly interesting. Mike, I know people can find you on Seeking Alpha. Where else can they get in touch with you or find you or what else do you have going on? MF: Well, I'm on Twitter. I don't post all that at X, I guess. I'm not super active on it anymore, but my handle is faybomb. And I also have a Substack. It's called Heretic Speculator. If you're interested, you can search for that. I would say that my -- most of my crypto work is probably still done through Seeking Alpha. So follow me on there. And if you like more then yeah, X and Substack as well.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.30.2","shortVersion":"4.30.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2459102488"}