Airbus Airplane And Order And Delivery Analysis Shows Growth

seekingalpha08-16

Airbus lowered 2024 delivery targets to 770 airplanes due to supply chain bottlenecks.In July, Airbus booked 59 orders worth $5.8 billion, including A320, A330neo and A350 programs.Airbus delivered 77...

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While I already saw the strain in the delivery flow, the alert from Airbus caught me off guard as we still have months in deliveries to go. The downward revision on the delivery target was a very clear sign that while jet makers are looking to increase production there still are significant bottlenecks in the supply chain. That makes it even more important to follow the orders and deliveries that are announced monthly. In this report, I will be discussing the Airbus airplane orders and deliveries in July. Airbus Books Airplane Orders For Key A320, A330neo And A350 Programs   The Aerospace ForumIn July, Airbus booked 59 orders valued at $5.8 billion. The mix consisted of 32 widebody airplanes and 27 single-aisle jets:  An undisclosed customer ordered 15 Airbus A321neo airplanes. Virgin Atlantic Airways ordered seven Airbus A330-900s. Japan Airlines (OTCPK:JAPSY) ordered 11 Airbus A321neo airplanes and 20 Airbus A350-900s. Berniq Airways ordered six Airbus A320neo airplanes.  During the month, the following order book changes and mutations took place:  AerCap (AER) converted orders for two Airbus A321neos to two Airbus A321neos. Aviation Capital Group converted orders for nine Airbus A320neos to nine A321neos. JetSmart Chile took over a delivery slot for one Airbus A320neo from BOC Aviation. Chengdu Airlines and Malta Medair were identified as the customer for one Airbus A320neo each. Jet2 was identified as the customer for 36 Airbus A321neo airplanes. Junyao Air was identified as the customer for one Airbus A321neo airplane. NAS Aviation Services took over delivery slots for seven A320neos and 29 A321neos from Spirit Airlines (SAVE) while converting one A320neo to an A321neo order. Tibet Airlines was identified as the customer for one Airbus A319neo. Vietjet was identified as the customer for 20 Airbus A330-900s.  In July we saw Airbus booking orders for its key programs. Orders from Berniq Airways, Japan Airlines and Virgin Atlantic Airways had been announced during the Farnborough International Airshow and thus were not a major surprise in the order flow. On the mutation end, we saw a flurry of customer reveals and ongoing airplane conversions as lessors assess their customers’ needs and discuss delivery slots with Airbus. Interesting to note is that the seven A330-900s that Virgin Atlantic Airways ordered also meant that the company would not take its final two A350-100s on order. In the same month last year, Airbus booked 60 orders and three cancellations, bringing net orders to 60 airplanes valued $4.6 billion, showing stable year-on-year order inflow but with a more favorable order composition. Year-to-date, Airbus booked 389 orders and 19 cancellations, bringing its net orders to 367 airplanes valued at $35.9 billion. A year ago, Airbus booked 1,140 gross orders and 39 cancellations, bringing the net order tally to 1,101 units valued at $73.5 billion. So, year-to-date we see a strong decline in order inflow but it should be noted that last year we saw big orders that only happen a couple of times each year. So, the decline in order inflow is in no way a reason for concern. Airbus Airplane Deliveries Increase Year-on-Year   AirbusAirbus delivered a total of 77 airplanes in July, valued at $4.2 billion:  Seven Airbus A220 airplanes were delivered. A total of 53 Airbus A320neo airplanes were delivered, including 19 Airbus A320neo airplanes and 34 Airbus A321neo airplanes. Airbus delivered three Airbus A330-900neo airplanes. There were four Airbus A350 airplane deliveries, all for the -900 model.  During the same month last year, Airbus delivered 77 airplanes valued at $5.1 billion. Year-over-year, we saw deliveries increase by 12 units, or 18.5%. So, year-on-year the deliveries were significantly higher driven by higher A320neo program deliveries. Year-to-date, Airbus has delivered 400 airplanes valued at $25.5 billion, compared to 381 deliveries valued at $24.6 billion a year ago. So, deliveries are higher year-on-year but not as much as one would have expected and for full year Airbus now expects deliveries to climb by 5% instead of 9% and that is also what the year-to-date figures reflect. The book-to-bill ratio was 0.8x in terms of units and 1.1x in terms of value. Year-to-date, the book-to-bill ratio in terms of units is 1x and 1.4x in terms of value. While book-to-bill ratios above one tend to signal strong demand, for commercial aerospace they're currently also driven by airplane production still being below undisturbed levels. Conclusion: Airbus Has Significant Growth Prospects For jet makers including Airbus the challenge is currently to optimize the delivery volumes amidst continued stress on the aerospace supply chain. OEMs had expected the strain to significantly moderate this year, but we see that the challenges are stickier in nature. I believe that the current delivery goal that the company has set is achievable and its order inflow and backlog continue to support significantly higher levels of output. So, from demand side we are currently seeing no weakness. As a result, I'm maintaining my buy rating for Airbus stock.  Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. 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