Jackson Hole Symposium Preview: Interest Rate Cut Ahead

Seeking Alpha08-19

S&P 500 index gained 29% since last year's Jackson Hole Symposium.Expect Fed Chair Powell to address the effectiveness of monetary policy, even though price declines are most pronounced in the car ...

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Comments

Dr Rck
08-19
Dr Rck
Really? Would it do so at the risk of inflating the market when it is at all time high now? How would they justify if the stock market gets out of control unless it drops now or drops later right after the announcement? Why because the market has already priced in the rate cuts in Sep! Because everything seems 'rosy' right now doesn't it? So called earnings were good, guidance raised, people are spending and buying... so, what's next? Now Germany is stopping to fund Ukraine and its weapon manufacture Rheinmetall share price dropping... what are they going to manufacture now.. End the war and get real with US deficits!!
Fyve051079
08-19
Fyve051079
Great article, would you like to share it?

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In 2023, the S&P 500 (SP500) traded at the 4,300 level ahead of the event. The theme last year was “Structural Shifts in the Global Economy.” Back then, the Bureau of Labor Statistics posted strong employment data. Fed Chair Powell expected rate hikes would take time to work against high levels of inflation in rent. In addition, core PCE inflation of around 4% was above the Fed’s 2.0% target.Ahead of this year’s Symposium that will be held on August 22 – 24, 2024, the S&P 500 index will open at 5,554.25. This is 29% higher than last year. The stock market’s strong performance suggests that few investors expect the Fed to panic. That would include an emergency rate cut after Japan’s stock market fell on Aug. 6, 2024.The topic of this week’s economy policy symposium is \"Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy.\" What should investors expect Fed Chair Powell to say?Remarks Beyond InflationInvestors should expect Fed Chair Powell to briefly mention that monetary policy is working its way through the economic system. He will mention that the core PCE of 2.6% in June 2024 continues a downward trend. However, the index’s drop from 2.8% in March 2024 is small. Powell may mention that the consumer price index trended generally lower in the last 12 months. However, CPI rose between January 2024 to March. That delayed the Fed from lowering interest rates throughout this year.BLSPowell may praise the effectiveness of monetary policy in lowering the price of new and used vehicles. Still, automotive firms like Ford (F), Stellantis (STLA), and General Motors (GM) continue to offer high-end vehicles. After car loan rates rose, people could not afford them. Once dealers capitulate by cutting prices, the CPI figures will fall further.BLSThe Fed Chair may not address the ongoing inflationary pressures in goods more important than vehicles: shelter. Shelter inflation increased by 0.4% in July, after falling for two consecutive months. It is up by 5.1% in the last year.On Saturday, August 17, changes to real estate commissions to agents will go into effect. Instead of sellers paying 6% in commission, buyers must negotiate their agent’s fees before they start viewing homes. This antitrust litigation settlement might lower the overall transaction costs of buying a home. Consumers would benefit further if the government reduced the fees that home inspectors, banks, and real estate lawyers charged.Banking StabilityThe Symposium will reassess the effectiveness of monetary policy. This may include re-evaluating the Fed’s proposal to increase bank capital requirements. Bloomberg reported that Fed Chair Powell met with CEO’s of JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), Morgan Stanley (MS), and Bank of America (BAC). Year-to-date, shares of those banks are up by between 8.78% in the case of Morgan Stanley and by 25.79% for JPMorgan.Seeking AlphaJPM stock has a strong industry rank, despite trading at a premium valuation. If the Fed increased capital requirements, it might hurt JPMorgan stock’s momentum the most.Seeking AlphaCiti scored the best on valuation, as shown in the scores above. Bank of America scores the best on profitability with an A+.Impact on Non-US Country BanksSymposium participants might address the impact of the Fed’s much anticipated 25 bps rate cut next month on foreign central banks. Japan’s Black Friday moment comes to mind. When markets speculated that the Fed would not change rates, the Yen fell to levels not seen in nearly three decades.The Bank of Japan responded by defending its currency by raising interest rates. This led to a yen carry trade unwinding, followed by the Nikkei falling by 12.4%. Fortunately, the Bank of Japan wants to avoid another round of panicked selling. Thanks, partly to the yen strengthening, the bank will slow its pace of rate hikes.Your TakeawayPowell’s participation at Jackson Hole will capture business news headlines this week. Markets will listen intently to his commentary on July’s job and inflation reports. The Fed Chair previously said that favorably slowing inflation and a cooling labor market would let the Central Bank cut rates in September.The event comes at a crucial time. Cisco Systems (CSCO) cut 7% of its staff after posting fiscal Q4 results. Intel (INTC) cut 15% of its staff. Unfortunately, job cuts are not limited to California and the technology sector. Mastercard (MA) is reportedly cutting 3% of its staff globally.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"Economic Data,analysis","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":340178535596408,"gmtCreate":1724055538760,"gmtModify":1724058217962,"author":{"id":"3576157343730083","authorId":"3576157343730083","name":"Dr Rck","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576157343730083","authorIdStr":"3576157343730083"},"htmlText":"Really? Would it do so at the risk of inflating the market when it is at all time high now? How would they justify if the stock market gets out of control unless it drops now or drops later right after the announcement? Why because the market has already priced in the rate cuts in Sep! Because everything seems 'rosy'&nbsp;right now doesn't it? So called&nbsp;earnings were good, guidance raised, people are spending and buying... so, what's next? Now Germany is stopping to fund Ukraine and its weapon manufacture Rheinmetall share price dropping... what are they going to manufacture now.. End the war and get real with US deficits!!","listText":"Really? Would it do so at the risk of inflating the market when it is at all time high now? How would they justify if the stock market gets out of control unless it drops now or drops later right after the announcement? Why because the market has already priced in the rate cuts in Sep! Because everything seems 'rosy'&nbsp;right now doesn't it? So called&nbsp;earnings were good, guidance raised, people are spending and buying... so, what's next? Now Germany is stopping to fund Ukraine and its weapon manufacture Rheinmetall share price dropping... what are they going to manufacture now.. End the war and get real with US deficits!!","text":"Really? Would it do so at the risk of inflating the market when it is at all time high now? How would they justify if the stock market gets out of control unless it drops now or drops later right after the announcement? Why because the market has already priced in the rate cuts in Sep! Because everything seems 'rosy' right now doesn't it? So called earnings were good, guidance raised, people are spending and buying... so, what's next? Now Germany is stopping to fund Ukraine and its weapon manufacture Rheinmetall share price dropping... what are they going to manufacture now.. End the war and get real with US deficits!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/340178535596408","repostId":2460271958,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2460271958","pubTimestamp":1724037000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2460271958?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-08-19 11:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Jackson Hole Symposium Preview: Interest Rate Cut Ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2460271958","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"S&P 500 index gained 29% since last year's Jackson Hole Symposium.Expect Fed Chair Powell to address the effectiveness of monetary policy, even though price declines are most pronounced in the car mar","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>S&amp;P 500 index gained 29% since last year&#39;s Jackson Hole Symposium.</p></li><li><p>Expect Fed Chair Powell to address the effectiveness of monetary policy, even though price declines are most pronounced in the car market.</p></li><li><p>The symposium may reassess the impact of the Fed rate cut on foreign central banks, particularly Japan&#39;s response to market speculation.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/39a93b595c2449fd47e4e4d57e246865\" alt=\"Mihajlo Maricic/iStock via Getty Images\" title=\"Mihajlo Maricic/iStock via Getty Images\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>Mihajlo Maricic/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><h2 id=\"id_920260672\">Jackson Hole Economic Symposium 2024</h2><p>The upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium contrasts with last year’s event from an interest rate policy standpoint. In 2023, the S&amp;P 500 (SP500) traded at the 4,300 level ahead of the event. The theme last year was “Structural Shifts in the Global Economy.” Back then, the Bureau of Labor Statistics posted strong employment data. Fed Chair Powell expected rate hikes would take time to work against high levels of inflation in rent. In addition, core PCE inflation of around 4% was above the Fed’s 2.0% target.</p><p>Ahead of this year’s Symposium that will be held on August 22 – 24, 2024, the S&amp;P 500 index will open at 5,554.25. This is 29% higher than last year. The stock market’s strong performance suggests that few investors expect the Fed to panic. That would include an emergency rate cut after Japan’s stock market fell on Aug. 6, 2024.</p><p>The topic of this week’s economy policy symposium is <em>&#34;Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy.&#34;</em> What should investors expect Fed Chair Powell to say?</p><h2 id=\"id_1433277202\">Remarks Beyond Inflation</h2><p>Investors should expect Fed Chair Powell to briefly mention that monetary policy is working its way through the economic system. He will mention that the core PCE of 2.6% in June 2024 continues a downward trend. However, the index’s drop from 2.8% in March 2024 is small. Powell may mention that the consumer price index trended generally lower in the last 12 months. However, CPI rose between January 2024 to March. That delayed the Fed from lowering interest rates throughout this year.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7c55b85ae059bbb7bf83db75e569f400\" alt=\"BLS\" title=\"BLS\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\"/><span>BLS</span></p><p>Powell may praise the effectiveness of monetary policy in lowering the price of new and used vehicles. Still, automotive firms like Ford (F), Stellantis (STLA), and General Motors (GM) continue to offer high-end vehicles. After car loan rates rose, people could not afford them. Once dealers capitulate by cutting prices, the CPI figures will fall further.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/afc1965d07df80d3a31c824b8a31940b\" alt=\"BLS\" title=\"BLS\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"389\"/><span>BLS</span></p><p>The Fed Chair may not address the ongoing inflationary pressures in goods more important than vehicles: shelter. Shelter inflation increased by 0.4% in July, after falling for two consecutive months. It is up by 5.1% in the last year.</p><p>On Saturday, August 17, changes to real estate commissions to agents will go into effect. Instead of sellers paying 6% in commission, buyers must negotiate their agent’s fees before they start viewing homes. This antitrust litigation settlement might lower the overall transaction costs of buying a home. Consumers would benefit further if the government reduced the fees that home inspectors, banks, and real estate lawyers charged.</p><h2 id=\"id_3397014866\">Banking Stability</h2><p>The Symposium will reassess the effectiveness of monetary policy. This may include re-evaluating the Fed’s proposal to increase bank capital requirements. <em>Bloomberg</em> reported that Fed Chair Powell met with CEO’s of JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), Morgan Stanley (MS), and Bank of America (BAC). Year-to-date, shares of those banks are up by between 8.78% in the case of Morgan Stanley and by 25.79% for JPMorgan.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1ecedd5409e1b91eec5de47f55eafe7d\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha\" title=\"Seeking Alpha\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>JPM stock has a strong industry rank, despite trading at a premium valuation. If the Fed increased capital requirements, it might hurt JPMorgan stock’s momentum the most.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5febe4882c8cd2867cda37e5669ddc44\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha\" title=\"Seeking Alpha\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>Citi scored the best on valuation, as shown in the scores above. Bank of America scores the best on profitability with an A+.</p><h2 id=\"id_1581511042\">Impact on Non-US Country Banks</h2><p>Symposium participants might address the impact of the Fed’s much anticipated 25 bps rate cut next month on foreign central banks. Japan’s Black Friday moment comes to mind. When markets speculated that the Fed would not change rates, the Yen fell to levels not seen in nearly three decades.</p><p>The Bank of Japan responded by defending its currency by raising interest rates. This led to a yen carry trade unwinding, followed by the Nikkei falling by 12.4%. Fortunately, the Bank of Japan wants to avoid another round of panicked selling. Thanks, partly to the yen strengthening, the bank will slow its pace of rate hikes.</p><h2 id=\"id_1901328842\">Your Takeaway</h2><p>Powell’s participation at Jackson Hole will capture business news headlines this week. Markets will listen intently to his commentary on July’s job and inflation reports. The Fed Chair previously said that favorably slowing inflation and a cooling labor market would let the Central Bank cut rates in September.</p><p>The event comes at a crucial time. Cisco Systems (CSCO) cut 7% of its staff after posting fiscal Q4 results. Intel (INTC) cut 15% of its staff. Unfortunately, job cuts are not limited to California and the technology sector. Mastercard (MA) is reportedly cutting 3% of its staff globally.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jackson Hole Symposium Preview: Interest Rate Cut Ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJackson Hole Symposium Preview: Interest Rate Cut Ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-19 11:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4715425-jackson-hole-symposium-preview-interest-rate-cut-ahead><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>S&P 500 index gained 29% since last year's Jackson Hole Symposium.Expect Fed Chair Powell to address the effectiveness of monetary policy, even though price declines are most pronounced in the car ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4715425-jackson-hole-symposium-preview-interest-rate-cut-ahead\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0942090050.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD)  INC","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","LU0390134368.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFXG1179.USD":"BNY MELLON U.S. EQUITY INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","LU0096362180.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL FOCUS \"DU\" (USD)","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0310800965.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Balanced A Acc SGD","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD",".DJI":"道琼斯","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1064927863.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Europe Dynamic A (acc) SGD-H",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","LU2456880835.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU1496350171.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED BALANCED \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4715425-jackson-hole-symposium-preview-interest-rate-cut-ahead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2460271958","content_text":"S&P 500 index gained 29% since last year's Jackson Hole Symposium.Expect Fed Chair Powell to address the effectiveness of monetary policy, even though price declines are most pronounced in the car market.The symposium may reassess the impact of the Fed rate cut on foreign central banks, particularly Japan's response to market speculation.Mihajlo Maricic/iStock via Getty ImagesJackson Hole Economic Symposium 2024The upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium contrasts with last year’s event from an interest rate policy standpoint. In 2023, the S&P 500 (SP500) traded at the 4,300 level ahead of the event. The theme last year was “Structural Shifts in the Global Economy.” Back then, the Bureau of Labor Statistics posted strong employment data. Fed Chair Powell expected rate hikes would take time to work against high levels of inflation in rent. In addition, core PCE inflation of around 4% was above the Fed’s 2.0% target.Ahead of this year’s Symposium that will be held on August 22 – 24, 2024, the S&P 500 index will open at 5,554.25. This is 29% higher than last year. The stock market’s strong performance suggests that few investors expect the Fed to panic. That would include an emergency rate cut after Japan’s stock market fell on Aug. 6, 2024.The topic of this week’s economy policy symposium is \"Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy.\" What should investors expect Fed Chair Powell to say?Remarks Beyond InflationInvestors should expect Fed Chair Powell to briefly mention that monetary policy is working its way through the economic system. He will mention that the core PCE of 2.6% in June 2024 continues a downward trend. However, the index’s drop from 2.8% in March 2024 is small. Powell may mention that the consumer price index trended generally lower in the last 12 months. However, CPI rose between January 2024 to March. That delayed the Fed from lowering interest rates throughout this year.BLSPowell may praise the effectiveness of monetary policy in lowering the price of new and used vehicles. Still, automotive firms like Ford (F), Stellantis (STLA), and General Motors (GM) continue to offer high-end vehicles. After car loan rates rose, people could not afford them. Once dealers capitulate by cutting prices, the CPI figures will fall further.BLSThe Fed Chair may not address the ongoing inflationary pressures in goods more important than vehicles: shelter. Shelter inflation increased by 0.4% in July, after falling for two consecutive months. It is up by 5.1% in the last year.On Saturday, August 17, changes to real estate commissions to agents will go into effect. Instead of sellers paying 6% in commission, buyers must negotiate their agent’s fees before they start viewing homes. This antitrust litigation settlement might lower the overall transaction costs of buying a home. Consumers would benefit further if the government reduced the fees that home inspectors, banks, and real estate lawyers charged.Banking StabilityThe Symposium will reassess the effectiveness of monetary policy. This may include re-evaluating the Fed’s proposal to increase bank capital requirements. Bloomberg reported that Fed Chair Powell met with CEO’s of JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), Morgan Stanley (MS), and Bank of America (BAC). Year-to-date, shares of those banks are up by between 8.78% in the case of Morgan Stanley and by 25.79% for JPMorgan.Seeking AlphaJPM stock has a strong industry rank, despite trading at a premium valuation. If the Fed increased capital requirements, it might hurt JPMorgan stock’s momentum the most.Seeking AlphaCiti scored the best on valuation, as shown in the scores above. Bank of America scores the best on profitability with an A+.Impact on Non-US Country BanksSymposium participants might address the impact of the Fed’s much anticipated 25 bps rate cut next month on foreign central banks. Japan’s Black Friday moment comes to mind. When markets speculated that the Fed would not change rates, the Yen fell to levels not seen in nearly three decades.The Bank of Japan responded by defending its currency by raising interest rates. This led to a yen carry trade unwinding, followed by the Nikkei falling by 12.4%. Fortunately, the Bank of Japan wants to avoid another round of panicked selling. Thanks, partly to the yen strengthening, the bank will slow its pace of rate hikes.Your TakeawayPowell’s participation at Jackson Hole will capture business news headlines this week. Markets will listen intently to his commentary on July’s job and inflation reports. The Fed Chair previously said that favorably slowing inflation and a cooling labor market would let the Central Bank cut rates in September.The event comes at a crucial time. Cisco Systems (CSCO) cut 7% of its staff after posting fiscal Q4 results. Intel (INTC) cut 15% of its staff. Unfortunately, job cuts are not limited to California and the technology sector. Mastercard (MA) is reportedly cutting 3% of its staff globally.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":340160769438080,"gmtCreate":1724051201528,"gmtModify":1724051207681,"author":{"id":"4187152431927022","authorId":"4187152431927022","name":"Fyve051079","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4187152431927022","authorIdStr":"4187152431927022"},"htmlText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","text":"Great article, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/340160769438080","repostId":2460271958,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2460271958","pubTimestamp":1724037000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2460271958?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-08-19 11:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Jackson Hole Symposium Preview: Interest Rate Cut Ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2460271958","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"S&P 500 index gained 29% since last year's Jackson Hole Symposium.Expect Fed Chair Powell to address the effectiveness of monetary policy, even though price declines are most pronounced in the car mar","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>S&amp;P 500 index gained 29% since last year&#39;s Jackson Hole Symposium.</p></li><li><p>Expect Fed Chair Powell to address the effectiveness of monetary policy, even though price declines are most pronounced in the car market.</p></li><li><p>The symposium may reassess the impact of the Fed rate cut on foreign central banks, particularly Japan&#39;s response to market speculation.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/39a93b595c2449fd47e4e4d57e246865\" alt=\"Mihajlo Maricic/iStock via Getty Images\" title=\"Mihajlo Maricic/iStock via Getty Images\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>Mihajlo Maricic/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><h2 id=\"id_920260672\">Jackson Hole Economic Symposium 2024</h2><p>The upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium contrasts with last year’s event from an interest rate policy standpoint. In 2023, the S&amp;P 500 (SP500) traded at the 4,300 level ahead of the event. The theme last year was “Structural Shifts in the Global Economy.” Back then, the Bureau of Labor Statistics posted strong employment data. Fed Chair Powell expected rate hikes would take time to work against high levels of inflation in rent. In addition, core PCE inflation of around 4% was above the Fed’s 2.0% target.</p><p>Ahead of this year’s Symposium that will be held on August 22 – 24, 2024, the S&amp;P 500 index will open at 5,554.25. This is 29% higher than last year. The stock market’s strong performance suggests that few investors expect the Fed to panic. That would include an emergency rate cut after Japan’s stock market fell on Aug. 6, 2024.</p><p>The topic of this week’s economy policy symposium is <em>&#34;Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy.&#34;</em> What should investors expect Fed Chair Powell to say?</p><h2 id=\"id_1433277202\">Remarks Beyond Inflation</h2><p>Investors should expect Fed Chair Powell to briefly mention that monetary policy is working its way through the economic system. He will mention that the core PCE of 2.6% in June 2024 continues a downward trend. However, the index’s drop from 2.8% in March 2024 is small. Powell may mention that the consumer price index trended generally lower in the last 12 months. However, CPI rose between January 2024 to March. That delayed the Fed from lowering interest rates throughout this year.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7c55b85ae059bbb7bf83db75e569f400\" alt=\"BLS\" title=\"BLS\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\"/><span>BLS</span></p><p>Powell may praise the effectiveness of monetary policy in lowering the price of new and used vehicles. Still, automotive firms like Ford (F), Stellantis (STLA), and General Motors (GM) continue to offer high-end vehicles. After car loan rates rose, people could not afford them. Once dealers capitulate by cutting prices, the CPI figures will fall further.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/afc1965d07df80d3a31c824b8a31940b\" alt=\"BLS\" title=\"BLS\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"389\"/><span>BLS</span></p><p>The Fed Chair may not address the ongoing inflationary pressures in goods more important than vehicles: shelter. Shelter inflation increased by 0.4% in July, after falling for two consecutive months. It is up by 5.1% in the last year.</p><p>On Saturday, August 17, changes to real estate commissions to agents will go into effect. Instead of sellers paying 6% in commission, buyers must negotiate their agent’s fees before they start viewing homes. This antitrust litigation settlement might lower the overall transaction costs of buying a home. Consumers would benefit further if the government reduced the fees that home inspectors, banks, and real estate lawyers charged.</p><h2 id=\"id_3397014866\">Banking Stability</h2><p>The Symposium will reassess the effectiveness of monetary policy. This may include re-evaluating the Fed’s proposal to increase bank capital requirements. <em>Bloomberg</em> reported that Fed Chair Powell met with CEO’s of JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), Morgan Stanley (MS), and Bank of America (BAC). Year-to-date, shares of those banks are up by between 8.78% in the case of Morgan Stanley and by 25.79% for JPMorgan.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1ecedd5409e1b91eec5de47f55eafe7d\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha\" title=\"Seeking Alpha\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>JPM stock has a strong industry rank, despite trading at a premium valuation. If the Fed increased capital requirements, it might hurt JPMorgan stock’s momentum the most.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5febe4882c8cd2867cda37e5669ddc44\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha\" title=\"Seeking Alpha\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p>Citi scored the best on valuation, as shown in the scores above. Bank of America scores the best on profitability with an A+.</p><h2 id=\"id_1581511042\">Impact on Non-US Country Banks</h2><p>Symposium participants might address the impact of the Fed’s much anticipated 25 bps rate cut next month on foreign central banks. Japan’s Black Friday moment comes to mind. When markets speculated that the Fed would not change rates, the Yen fell to levels not seen in nearly three decades.</p><p>The Bank of Japan responded by defending its currency by raising interest rates. This led to a yen carry trade unwinding, followed by the Nikkei falling by 12.4%. Fortunately, the Bank of Japan wants to avoid another round of panicked selling. Thanks, partly to the yen strengthening, the bank will slow its pace of rate hikes.</p><h2 id=\"id_1901328842\">Your Takeaway</h2><p>Powell’s participation at Jackson Hole will capture business news headlines this week. Markets will listen intently to his commentary on July’s job and inflation reports. The Fed Chair previously said that favorably slowing inflation and a cooling labor market would let the Central Bank cut rates in September.</p><p>The event comes at a crucial time. Cisco Systems (CSCO) cut 7% of its staff after posting fiscal Q4 results. Intel (INTC) cut 15% of its staff. Unfortunately, job cuts are not limited to California and the technology sector. Mastercard (MA) is reportedly cutting 3% of its staff globally.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jackson Hole Symposium Preview: Interest Rate Cut Ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJackson Hole Symposium Preview: Interest Rate Cut Ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-19 11:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4715425-jackson-hole-symposium-preview-interest-rate-cut-ahead><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>S&P 500 index gained 29% since last year's Jackson Hole Symposium.Expect Fed Chair Powell to address the effectiveness of monetary policy, even though price declines are most pronounced in the car ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4715425-jackson-hole-symposium-preview-interest-rate-cut-ahead\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0942090050.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD)  INC","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","LU0390134368.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFXG1179.USD":"BNY MELLON U.S. EQUITY INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","LU0096362180.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL FOCUS \"DU\" (USD)","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0310800965.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Balanced A Acc SGD","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD",".DJI":"道琼斯","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1064927863.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Europe Dynamic A (acc) SGD-H",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","LU2456880835.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU1496350171.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED BALANCED \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4715425-jackson-hole-symposium-preview-interest-rate-cut-ahead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2460271958","content_text":"S&P 500 index gained 29% since last year's Jackson Hole Symposium.Expect Fed Chair Powell to address the effectiveness of monetary policy, even though price declines are most pronounced in the car market.The symposium may reassess the impact of the Fed rate cut on foreign central banks, particularly Japan's response to market speculation.Mihajlo Maricic/iStock via Getty ImagesJackson Hole Economic Symposium 2024The upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium contrasts with last year’s event from an interest rate policy standpoint. In 2023, the S&P 500 (SP500) traded at the 4,300 level ahead of the event. The theme last year was “Structural Shifts in the Global Economy.” Back then, the Bureau of Labor Statistics posted strong employment data. Fed Chair Powell expected rate hikes would take time to work against high levels of inflation in rent. In addition, core PCE inflation of around 4% was above the Fed’s 2.0% target.Ahead of this year’s Symposium that will be held on August 22 – 24, 2024, the S&P 500 index will open at 5,554.25. This is 29% higher than last year. The stock market’s strong performance suggests that few investors expect the Fed to panic. That would include an emergency rate cut after Japan’s stock market fell on Aug. 6, 2024.The topic of this week’s economy policy symposium is \"Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy.\" What should investors expect Fed Chair Powell to say?Remarks Beyond InflationInvestors should expect Fed Chair Powell to briefly mention that monetary policy is working its way through the economic system. He will mention that the core PCE of 2.6% in June 2024 continues a downward trend. However, the index’s drop from 2.8% in March 2024 is small. Powell may mention that the consumer price index trended generally lower in the last 12 months. However, CPI rose between January 2024 to March. That delayed the Fed from lowering interest rates throughout this year.BLSPowell may praise the effectiveness of monetary policy in lowering the price of new and used vehicles. Still, automotive firms like Ford (F), Stellantis (STLA), and General Motors (GM) continue to offer high-end vehicles. After car loan rates rose, people could not afford them. Once dealers capitulate by cutting prices, the CPI figures will fall further.BLSThe Fed Chair may not address the ongoing inflationary pressures in goods more important than vehicles: shelter. Shelter inflation increased by 0.4% in July, after falling for two consecutive months. It is up by 5.1% in the last year.On Saturday, August 17, changes to real estate commissions to agents will go into effect. Instead of sellers paying 6% in commission, buyers must negotiate their agent’s fees before they start viewing homes. This antitrust litigation settlement might lower the overall transaction costs of buying a home. Consumers would benefit further if the government reduced the fees that home inspectors, banks, and real estate lawyers charged.Banking StabilityThe Symposium will reassess the effectiveness of monetary policy. This may include re-evaluating the Fed’s proposal to increase bank capital requirements. Bloomberg reported that Fed Chair Powell met with CEO’s of JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), Morgan Stanley (MS), and Bank of America (BAC). Year-to-date, shares of those banks are up by between 8.78% in the case of Morgan Stanley and by 25.79% for JPMorgan.Seeking AlphaJPM stock has a strong industry rank, despite trading at a premium valuation. If the Fed increased capital requirements, it might hurt JPMorgan stock’s momentum the most.Seeking AlphaCiti scored the best on valuation, as shown in the scores above. Bank of America scores the best on profitability with an A+.Impact on Non-US Country BanksSymposium participants might address the impact of the Fed’s much anticipated 25 bps rate cut next month on foreign central banks. Japan’s Black Friday moment comes to mind. When markets speculated that the Fed would not change rates, the Yen fell to levels not seen in nearly three decades.The Bank of Japan responded by defending its currency by raising interest rates. This led to a yen carry trade unwinding, followed by the Nikkei falling by 12.4%. Fortunately, the Bank of Japan wants to avoid another round of panicked selling. Thanks, partly to the yen strengthening, the bank will slow its pace of rate hikes.Your TakeawayPowell’s participation at Jackson Hole will capture business news headlines this week. Markets will listen intently to his commentary on July’s job and inflation reports. The Fed Chair previously said that favorably slowing inflation and a cooling labor market would let the Central Bank cut rates in September.The event comes at a crucial time. Cisco Systems (CSCO) cut 7% of its staff after posting fiscal Q4 results. Intel (INTC) cut 15% of its staff. Unfortunately, job cuts are not limited to California and the technology sector. Mastercard (MA) is reportedly cutting 3% of its staff globally.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":15,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":3,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2460271958"}