Chasing Goldilocks

seekingalpha08-18

U.S. equity markets rallied while benchmark interest rates remained near the lows of the year after a critical slate of inflation data showed further encouraging signs of cooling price pressures.The ...

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChasing Goldilocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-18 21:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4715427-chasing-goldilocks><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>U.S. equity markets rallied while benchmark interest rates remained near the lows of the year after a critical slate of inflation data showed further encouraging signs of cooling price pressures.The ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4715427-chasing-goldilocks\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SRG","symbol_name":"Seritage Growth Properties","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4715427-chasing-goldilocks","article_id":"2460716794","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/668600163/image_668600163.jpg"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2460716794","pubTimestamp":1723986000,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"U.S. equity markets rallied while benchmark interest rates remained near the lows of the year after a critical slate of inflation data showed further encouraging signs of cooling price pressures.The C","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"SRG":"Seritage Growth Properties","BK4205":"房地产经营公司","BK4588":"碎股","MORT":"VanEck Mortgage REIT Income ETF","BK4181":"酒店及度假村房地产投资信托","ORC":"Orchid Island Capital Inc.","BK4233":"房地产运营公司","CIM":"奇美拉投资","BK4110":"抵押房地产投资信托","AMH":"American Homes 4 Rent","BK4218":"酒店及度假村房地产信托","DX":"德尼克斯投资","LFT":"Lument Finance Trust, Inc.","SOHO":"Sotherly Hotels Inc.","BK4225":"医疗保健房地产信托","BK4215":"住宅房地产投资信托","SACH":"Sachem Capital Corp.","CFA.SI":"NikkoAM-STC Asia REIT","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4228":"单户式住宅房地产信托","BK4203":"医疗保健房地产投资信托","MPW":"Medical Properties Trust","BK4080":"零售业房地产投资信托"},"translate_title":"追逐金发姑娘","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AMH":1,"SOHO":1,"SACH":1,"ORC":1,"MPW":1,"MORT":1,"LFT":1,"DX":1,"CIM":1,"SRG":1,"US12M.BOND":0.9,"US10Y.BOND":0.9,"US2Y.BOND":0.9,"CFA.SI":0.9,"US30Y.BOND":0.9,"US3Y.BOND":0.9,"US5Y.BOND":0.9,"US6M.BOND":0.9,"US7Y.BOND":0.9,"US912797GL51.BOND":0.6,"US912797GW17.BOND":0.6,"US912797HE00.BOND":0.6},"content_text":"U.S. equity markets rallied while benchmark interest rates remained near the lows of the year after a critical slate of inflation data showed further encouraging signs of cooling price pressures.The Consumer Price Index posted a downside surprise for a fourth straight month, underscored by a \"2-Handle\" on Headline CPI, which follows a period of historically high inflation from 2021 to 2023.Sparking a renewed \"Goldilocks\" narrative, Retail Sales data was notably stronger than expected in July - posting its strongest monthly increase in 18 months - while Jobless Claims also moderated.The S&P 500 rallied 3.9% this week, lifting the major benchmark to back within 2% of record highs. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 surged more than 5%, while Small- and Mid-Caps underperformed.Real estate equities were laggards this week following a period of notable outperformance during earnings season. American Homes was in focus on reports of a potential deal to add 1,700 homes to its portfolio.   Matteo Colombo Real Estate Weekly Outlook iREIT®+Hoya U.S. equity markets rallied this week while benchmark interest rates remained near the lows of the year after a critical slate of inflation data showed further signs of cooling price pressures in July, clearing the major hurdles for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates next month. Posting gains for a second week following a three-week skid in late July, the S&P 500 rallied 3.9% this week, lifting the major benchmark to back within 2% of recent record-highs. Continuing to lead the rebound after dipping into \"correction territory\" in early August, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 surged 5.4% this week, extending its gains from the August 8th bottom to nearly 10%. Gains were relatively top-heavy this week, however, with the Small-Cap 600 and Mid-Cap 400 each posting more muted gains of around 2.5%. Real estate equities were also laggards this week following a period of notable outperformance during earnings season. The Equity REIT Index gained 0.1% this week, with 10-of-18 property sectors in positive territory, while the Mortgage REIT Index gained 1.3%. Homebuilders and the broader Housing Index gained roughly 1% despite disappointing home construction data. iREIT®+Hoya Bond markets also finished higher on a volatile week, as rates tumbled early in the week on cooler-than-expected inflation data but pared much of the move later in the week following surprisingly solid retail sales and jobless claims data. Ahead of the Fed's closely watched Jackson Hole Symposium in the week ahead, the 10-Year Treasury Yield finished the week lower by 6 basis points to close at 3.88% - above its early-August lows of 3.78% but still below recent highs in the prior week of 4.00%. The policy-sensitive 2-Year Treasury Yield finished flat on the week at 4.05%. Swaps markets now price-in 1.25 rate cuts in September (down from 1.51 last week) and 3.75 rate cuts by the end of the year (down from 4.06 implied last week). Despite the more-muted rate cut expectations, the US Dollar remained under pressure, weakening to its lowest levels of the year. Elsewhere, WTI Crude Oil finished flat on the week at $75.50/barrel, trading towards the lower end of its 2024 range. The VIX - a standard measure of equity market volatility - fell to below 15 this week, continuing a moderation following an extreme surge last week. iREIT®+Hoya Real Estate Economic Data Below, we recap the most important macroeconomic data points over this past week affecting the residential and commercial real estate marketplace. iREIT®+Hoya All eyes were on the Consumer Price Index report this week, which posted a downside surprise for a fourth straight month, following three months of hotter-than-expected reports earlier this year. Headline CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month and increased by 2.89% from a year ago - below consensus estimates of +0.2% and 3.00%, respectively. This marked the first month that the Headline CPI showed a \"2-handle\" since March 2021, having spiked to a multi-decade high of 9.0% in June 2022. During this roughly three-year period, the cumulative increase in CPI inflation has totaled nearly 20%. Core CPI - which excludes food and energy - rose 0.2% on the month and 3.17% on the year, which was roughly in-line with expectations of 0.2% and 3.20%, respectively. CPI-ex-Shelter - the metric we watch most closely given the substantial lags in the BLS' shelter inflation metrics - was flat on the month, which dragged the year-over-year increase back down to 1.72%. iREIT®+Hoya Energy prices were flat on the month, while declines in airfares, clothing, and used vehicle prices helped to offset increases in insurance costs. We see a continued - but waning - distortion from the lagged recognition of shelter inflation, which accounted for effectively 100% of the increase in the Core CPI on a monthly basis and 60% of the increase on an annual basis. The CPI: Shelter index rose 0.4% on a monthly basis and 5.1% from a year ago - still well above private market metrics showing 1-3% rent growth - but this annual increase was the lowest since late 2021. We've highlighted for several years that the BLS' survey methodology - which samples rental units only every six months and measures in-place rent levels rather than market rents (new lease rates) - is prone to significant lags of up to 18 months. Over the past four quarters, apartment REITs have reported blended rent growth of just 0.9%, while single-family rental and manufactured housing REITs have seen more buoyant blended rent growth of around 5%. Using these REIT figures and weighting by the composition of the national rental housing stock, blended rent growth has averaged roughly 2.5% over the past four quarters. iREIT®+Hoya Meanwhile, Producer Price Index also showed cooler-than-expected wholesale price trends in July, an encouraging report following several months of reaccelerating price pressures. The Headline PPI increased 0.1% in July from the prior month and 2.25% on a year-over-year basis - below the consensus estimates of 0.2% and 2.4%, respectively. Core PPI followed the same pattern, posting a cooler-than-expected 0.0% monthly increase and 2.4% annual increase - below estimates of 0.2% and 2.7%, respectively. Services prices decreased 0.2% - the first monthly decline this year - as the \"noisy\" trade services index pulled back following a sharp jump last month. Goods prices climbed 0.6% - the most since February - driven by a rebound in gasoline and diesel fuel prices. Core PPI ex-Trade - which smooths out some of the noise in trade-related prices - was a bit less encouraging, rising 0.3% on the month and 3.3% from a year earlier. Some of the forward-looking components of the PPI series were also less encouraging, including the index of Proceeded Goods: Intermediate Demand, which jumped 0.7% from a month earlier - the most since February, driven by higher diesel costs. iREIT®+Hoya A key look into the health and sentiment of the U.S. consumer, data this week showed that Retail Sales were notably stronger than expected in July - posting its strongest monthly increase in eighteen months - pushing back on concerns of material consumer weakness. Total Retail Sales jumped 1.0% in July - well above expectations of 0.4% - which lifted the year-over-year increase to 2.7%. Core Retail Sales - which exclude auto and gas - also rose 0.4% in July, lifting the year-over-year increase to 3.4%. Spending figures in June were revised lower, however, and the strong report follows a stretch of relatively weak retail sales reports since early Spring. The rebound in July was relatively broad-based - with ten of the 13 categories posting increase - led by electronics/appliances, grocery stores, and home improvement retailers. Car sales also rebounded sharply in July, following a sharp dip in June related to a cyberattack on auto dealerships. Meanwhile, employment data this week also showed surprisingly buoyant trends. Initial Jobless Claims fell for a second week to the lowest level since early July, decreasing to 227k - well below forecasts of 235k. Continuing Claims also declined after swelling to its highest level since 2021 last week. iREIT®+Hoya Equity REIT & Homebuilder Week In Review Best & Worst Performance This Week Across the REIT Sector iREIT®+Hoya As analyzed in our Earnings Recap, REIT earnings season wrapped-up this week with reports from the final half-dozen small-cap names. Amid an otherwise underwhelming earnings season across the broader equity market, REIT earnings results were notably better than expected. Of the 96 equity REITs that provide full-year FFO guidance, 57 (59%) raised their outlook, while 13 (14%) lowered - well above the historical second-quarter average \"raise rate\" of 40-45%. By comparison, FactSet reports that 53% of the 272 S&P 500 constituents that have provided Earnings Per Share (\"EPS\") guidance have issued a positive revision. Last earnings season, 41% of REITs raised their outlook, while 11% lowered. Upside surprises at the property-sector level included Strip Center, Sunbelt Apartment, NYC/Sunbelt Office, Senior Housing, and Industrial REITs. Favorable expense trends (disinflation) and moderating supply growth drove incremental upside. Losers included Self-Storage, Hotel, Timber/Farmland, and Mortgage REITs. The West Coast - particularly California - was a region of notable weakness. External growth remained limited, but there were signs that animal spirits are beginning to come alive. iREIT®+Hoya Single-Family Rental: On that note, American Homes (AMH) - the second-largest SFR REIT with ownership in roughly 60,000 homes - traded flat this week after Bloomberg reported that AMH is in advanced talks to purchase a portfolio of 1,700 rental homes from London-based private equity firm Man Group, which had partnered with prop tech firm and brokerage firm Roofstock on the portfolio dubbed “Project Monarch.” The homes are located in Florida, Texas, and Nevada, among other states, with average market rents of roughly $2,100. Man Group has invested in SFRs since 2012 through several equity and debt investments, focusing primarily on build-to-rent (\"BTR\") communities through several recent joint ventures with Bouwinvest and Patrizia. Man notes that it has managed the acquisition and/or development of more than 5,200 homes/lots in 18 markets, including 13 purpose-built rental communities. The potential deal would be among the largest in recent years, as both SFR REITs have scaled-back their traditional acquisition pacing, focusing instead on BTR through a combination of internal pipelines and homebuilder partnerships. iREIT®+Hoya Hotel: Small-cap Sotherly Hotels (SOHO) - which owns 10 Hilton and Hyatt-branded hotels across East Coast markets - gained 2% this week after it rounded out REIT earnings season this morning with a mixed report, echoing commentary from its larger peers noting a slowdown in leisure demand and some moderation in pricing power. Despite solid property-level performance over the past several years, SOHO has yet to regain its footing after being pummeled by the pandemic amid ongoing pressures from its elevated debt load. SOHO maintained its full-year outlook, calling for Revenue Per Available Room (\"RevPAR\") growth of 5.0% - the only hotel REIT that did not reduce its RevPAR outlook this earnings season. SOHO commented, \"despite leisure customers becoming more price conscious... forward booking trends remain relatively strong, particularly for the upscale and upper upscale lodging segments.... urban hotels are expected to outperform the broader lodging market, driven by positive corporate and group travel trends.\" iREIT®+Hoya Healthcare: Embattled hospital owner Medical Properties Trust (MPW) rallied more than 5% this week after it announced that it completed the sale of 11 freestanding emergency departments, primary care, and urgent care facilities in Colorado to University of Colorado Health for $86 million, and intends to use the proceeds from the transaction to reduce debt. MPW constructed the 11 facilities from 2015 to 2017 - initially for Adeptus Health - at a total initial cost of $64 million. Adeptus subsequently filed for bankruptcy protection shortly after completion of the facilities in 2017, but MPW was able to release the space without interruption to UC Health - a point that MPW emphasized in the press release given questions over its ability to efficiently re-purpose the space currently leased to Steward Health Care - its largest tenant - which filed for bankruptcy in May. MPW announced earlier this month that it has completed more than $2.5B in asset sales this year - already above its initial target for the year - which it has used to \"expedite debt paydown.\" MPW also announced last week that it would reduce its cash dividend by 50% as part of new amendments with its lenders, effective through late 2025. iREIT®+Hoya Mall: On the topic of distress, mall owner Seritage Growth (SRG) - a former REIT which emerged from the Sears bankruptcy - dipped another 6% this week after it reported second-quarter results showing continued slow progress on its years-long liquidation which began in early 2022. SRG noted that it generated $40M in sales proceeds in Q2 - below the $50M in sales proceeds in Q1 - but noted that it has five additional assets under contract for anticipated gross proceeds of $138.6 million. SRG noted that it recognized an $86M impairment on its development property in Aventura, FL - an asset that SRG has classified as one of its premier mixed-use projects - due to \"ongoing negotiations for rent relief with existing tenants that began in the second quarter of 2024.\" A class action lawsuit was filed in July which alleges that Seritage violated federal securities laws by \"issuing false, misleading, and/or omissive disclosures concerning... the identification and review of impairment indicators for investments in real estate and the Company’s value and projected gross proceeds of certain real estate assets.\" Prior to the strategic liquidation, SRG owned 170 properties - primarily anchor stores within Class B and C malls - but has trimmed its portfolio to 22 properties. iREIT®+Hoya Mortgage REIT Week in Review Mortgage REITs outperformed their equity REIT peers this week - with the VanEck Mortgage REIT Income ETF (MORT) advancing 1.3% - as earnings season concluded with results from a pair of small-cap mREITs. Sachem Capital (SACH) which invests in a mix of commercial and residential-backed loans with a focus in Connecticut, Florida, and New York - was little-changed this week after reporting another downbeat quarter. SACH reported a 3% decline in its Book Value Per Share (\"BVPS\") and EPS of -$0.09, driven by a sharp increase in its loan loss provisions. Roughly 21% of SACH's loan portfolio is on non-accrual status, up from 17% at the start of the year. SACH commented, \"I'd love to say we're in a good spot, but clarity is a big issue right now...we're taking this month by month. Once the distressed vibe gets out there, getting 100% [repayment] is very difficult. So, we're running into a little bit of that, where a borrower in distress can say, what if I give you 85%.\" iREIT®+Hoya Elsewhere, Lument Finance (LFT) - which focuses on multifamily loans - was also little-changed this week after reporting in-line results, recording EPS of $0.09 - covering its recently increased dividend of $0.08/share. LFT remarked that \"we're at-or-near the peak stress period\" for multifamily but does \"continue to work through some of these more challenging assets.\" LFT downgraded four loans with $84.2M to Risk-5 \"default\" status, which pulled its overall portfolio Risk Rating to 3.6 from 3.5. Elsewhere, on the residential mREIT side, Chimera Investment (CIM) rallied 3% this week after it launched a new exchange-listed \"baby bond\" this week, pricing $65M of its 9.250% senior notes due 2029, which will trade on the NYSE under the symbol “CIMO.” On the dividend front, Orchid Island (ORC) was little changed after it maintained its monthly dividend at $0.12/share (18.1% dividend yield), while Dynex Capital (DX) was also little changed after maintaining its monthly dividend at $0.13/share (12.9% dividend yield). iREIT®+Hoya 2024 Performance Recap Performance trends have shifted dramatically over the past month, as the long-underperforming real estate sector has closed some of the historically wide gap with other segments of the equity market amid a sharp pull-back in benchmark interest rates. Halfway through August, the Equity REIT Index is now higher by 5.3% this year, while the Mortgage REIT Index is higher by 2.2%. This compares with the 17.3% gain on the S&P 500, the 9.0% gain for the Mid-Cap 400, and the 4.9% gain for the Small-Cap 600. Within the REIT sector, 13 of the 18 property sectors are higher for the year, led by Healthcare, Residential, and Retail REITs - while Timber, Farmland, and Hotel REITs have lagged on the downside. At 3.88%, the 10-Year Treasury Yield is now flat on the year, but the 2-Year Treasury Yield has dipped by 38 basis points to 4.05%. The aggregate Bloomberg US Bond Index is now higher by 2.9% this year. WTI Crude Oil is higher by 14.4% this year, but the broader Commodities complex is essentially unchanged on the year as higher oil prices have been offset by a dip in Natural Gas prices. iREIT®+Hoya Economic Calendar In The Week Ahead Following a frenetic week of market-moving newsflow, the economic calendar slows down a bit in the week ahead. \"Fed Speak\" will be the major focus during the week as the Jackson Hole Symposium - the Federal Reserve's annual policy conference - begins on Thursday. Fed Chair Powell is slated to speak on Friday morning for the first time since early August, with investors key-in on commentary regarding the soft July employment data which sparked a sudden surge in volatility and recession concerns. We'll also see both major home sales reports earlier in the week, which will provide good insight into where the housing market stands as mortgage rates began to retreat in mid-summer after two years of abnormally tight monetary policy. On Thursday, Existing Home Sales data is expected to show an annualized sales velocity of 3.9M in July - still hovering around three-decade lows, and considerably below the typical 5.0-5.5M range. On Friday, we'll see New Home Sales data, which is expected to show sales activity at a 630k annualized sales pace in July - down about 5% from last year - as builders continue to contend with financing and affordability issues. On Thursday, we'll also be watching the weekly Jobless Claims report for indications of a further deterioration in employment trends, and also watching S&P's Purchasing Managers' Index (\"PMI\") reports on services and manufacturing activity in August. iREIT®+Hoya For an in-depth analysis of all real estate sectors, check out all of our quarterly reports: Apartments, Homebuilders, Manufactured Housing, Student Housing, Single-Family Rentals, Cell Towers, Casinos, Industrial, Data Center, Malls, Healthcare, Net Lease, Shopping Centers, Hotels, Billboards, Office, Farmland, Storage, Timber, Mortgage, and Cannabis. Disclosure: Hoya Capital Real Estate advises two Exchange-Traded Funds listed on the NYSE. In addition to any long positions listed below, Hoya Capital is long all components in the Hoya Capital Housing 100 Index and in the Hoya Capital High Dividend Yield Index. Index definitions and a complete list of holdings are available on our website. iREIT®+Hoya  Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2460716794"}