Games Workshop: Clock Ticking On The Amazon Deal

seekingalpha2024-08-17

Games Workshop Group PLC's revenue is up slightly, driven by aggressive pricing strategies and some volume increases, but core hobby uptake may be slowing.Margin increases and profit growth have been ...

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RobsonPL Games Workshop Group PLC (OTCPK:GMWKF) continues to perform solidly. However, as covered in our last article, the matter of the IP is becoming increasingly important for the value case. GW does not disclose volumes. However, based on some data of increases in model pricing in 2023, which is closely followed by the community which knows that they are paying a premium for their models, price is a primary driver in performance. With a new Space Marine II game coming out soon, we think the narrative may change this year around licensing as being a more prominent part of the GW revenue base. Larger than this is the series being negotiated with Amazon (AMZN), who would be given the IP to produce on their platform, which is developing to be increasingly IP rich. The issue is that the process to finalize that deal is being caught on a snag that might derail the initiative, with outstanding agreements around creative direction. GW may not find the opportunity to go from strength to strength, which its valuation requires. Latest Earnings   Headline earnings (FY PR) The core revenue was up a little ahead of 10%. The issue is that GW has been getting aggressive in its pricing over the last decade, where it was already pretty aggressive before. While it depends on the kits, where some are more entry level and price hikes have been less, many kits got price increases of around 10%. A non-weighted average price increase was around 4.6%, less than last year's apparently, which was at 6%. They will be targeting 3-5% changes going forward. Volumes would therefore be up around 5% or so as of the FY report, which is not bad. However, it does show that the core hobby isn't necessarily seeing as much uptake as it had been in its major growth phase some years ago after Age of Sigmar and other initiatives to make the hobby more commercial. That revenue growth has been able to lead to margin increases and strong profit growth thanks to operating leverage and improved unit economics on higher pricing ahead of inflation. Some usual profit growth has been a bit limited by higher warehousing costs, whose delta has a negative 2% effect on operating profit, and other costs associated with a larger footprint and higher labor costs. We may also see more factory investment, which will mean CAPEX followed by more depreciation, since they were mulling it over the last time we covered them. Bottom Line In our previous coverage, we explained that our forecasts for the Space Marine II game might lead to a considerable royalty contribution, enough to double the latest reported revenue figures for licensing revenues. While the game is likely to be a decent success, probably better than its predecessor, which is what we based the calculation on, even more important would be the deal that is pending agreements on creative direction with Amazon (AMZN). The agreement is tentative, but assuming everything goes through, Amazon would have yet another IP in its stable. Rings of Power was its entry to capitalize on Tolkien's Legendarium, and this would be another venture of a similar type. The issue is that RoP had massive attrition. Few people bothered to finish the first season. Many critics complained that it made a mockery of Middle Earth, and it was attacked for being “woke.” The issue is that there are similar narratives cropping up with the Warhammer 40k project with Amazon. These are qualitative but material risks as they create boycott worries, which can seriously impair a company, particularly one like GW's whose valuation for some years now has been on stilts. There was a strange retcon around the Adeptus Custodes lore that was not well received by the community. Furthermore, it is being highlighted in games media that without an agreement by December 2024, the deal will fall through, and it's the creative guidelines that are a sticking point. The continued lack of agreement is becoming a concern. GW has been very protective of its IP, a policy that has likely become more stringent over the years due to their occasional forays into other entertainment media, outside video games, being received rather poorly by critics and consumers. But they might be hamstrung by the lack of mainstream success of the Warhammer+ streaming service. We think that if they are sensible, they will not risk their IP being taken in a poor creative direction, and it should be a little alarming to investors that Amazon has its own track record with RoP. GW may be more sensitive to that now as well, with the backlash from the community from the Custodes retcon. Failure to finalize a deal would mean licensing revenues would not kick in as aggressively as they would have with a series release. Those revenues could be very considerable. The IP is excellent, and Henry Cavill is helming the series as executive producer and lending his star power as the lead. Moreover, a success here would also give Amazon the option to move forward with the other part of GW's IP, Warhammer Fantasy, meaning a clear timeline for monetizing the GW IPs. Licensing revenues, which are currently less than 10% of the revenue of a company that ultimately sells minis for a pretty niche hobby, more niche than the IP itself, should have a lot of space to grow. We would be following the news of the Amazon agreement carefully, as that could be the event that leads to a pivot in the GW narrative come later earnings releases. Though on a relative basis, we are already not too crazy about the valuation. Other IP-rich businesses like Hasbro (HAS) trade at considerable forward P/E discounts, around 15% cheaper in forward multiple. Hasbro has WotC and other strong brands. At above 20x we are also not crazy about earnings yield, especially as core growth peters out a little it would seem in terms of volumes. We think that there is room for disappointment if GW decides not to monetize its IP. We also think it would be bad for them to do it poorly, and Amazon may fail in handling the IP.  Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. 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