Rose's Income Garden Portfolio Review: 6.3% Yield And Winners For 3 Metrics

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Rose's Income Garden has been active for 2.75 years with 85 stocks and a current yield of 6.3%.RIG has a total return of 12.08% YTD, outperforming SPY by 6.77% since inception on November 22, 2021....

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Anawat_s/iStock via Getty Images Rose’s Income Garden “RIG” RIG has been active now in The Macro Trading Factory for 2.75 years since the inception on November 22, 2021. It is based on my, Rose, 3 personal combined portfolios of 85 stocks that was established and built over 40+ years. It currently holds 85 stocks in 11 sectors, 12 if you include preferred shares separately and has a current yield of 6.3%. First a few statistics about RIG \"YTD\" year to date results to August 16th, 2024. This may also be considered a 2024 1H review for it, as SA only allows 2 per year. I have more freedom in the service and results are shown at the end of the day after the market closes. Total Return, including dividends, is 12.08% YTD. Since inception Nov. 2021, it is up 28.82%, beating SPY by 6.77%. Interestingly, it was up 11.32% YTD on August 7th when the market hit a low, but RIG only dipped a tiny 0.22% and became almost was even with SPY. That has changed as the market has made an upward rebound with RIG following, but not quite as fast. I enjoy the reliable rises and how it continues to collect great income on the way. RIG is built primarily for dividend income, which it is winning handily, representing 59% of the RIG gain with capital gains representing 41%. Metrics Used for Evaluation This article is a look at the RIG, mostly common stocks that offer P/E statistics and can be evaluated for a Chowder#. All will be explained under each section. Meaning no financial BDCs, real estate REITs, preferred shares or funds are listed. This review will be for mostly the 46 common stocks, with 2 others added just because. Data is garnered from FAST graphs, a paid subscriber service I use quite extensively. Because high earnings make for rising dividends and a higher market price, the criteria will be based on those metrics as follows. 1- Earnings per share “EPS” yield. The \"P/E\" price/earnings is used to determine \"EPS\" the first group of winners will be revealed from the original group of 48 stocks using that metric alone. 2- Dividend yield and 5-year dividend growth rate, \"5yDGR.\" The annual dividend is shown to reveal the dividend yield. The 5yDGR is used primarily for the Chowder#/ C#. I am also adding the 2-year DGR to show the dividend directional trend. These winners will then move on to the final review using the C#. 3- Chowder number / C#, obtained from dividend yield & 5yDGR. It is only an aid for suggesting investing success, as it is a measure of comparison to the S&P 500 (SPY) yield and growth. It is a must to examine each criterion/metric and also SPY. SPDR S&P ETF Trust (SPY) Below is a 6 year FASTgraph for SPY. It shows 4.5 past years and 1.5 years of estimates. Any number with an E behind means it is an estimate as well. The black line is for price, the white line is the dividend, and the dark green area represents earnings. The normal price/ earnings or P/E is shown by the blue line and is 22.65x, and it sells at the current price of $543.75 at a P/E of 23.71x, giving it an EPS yield of 4.22%. I will discuss the meaning of EPS yield below under that section. The earnings and dividend statistics are shown by year in black in the bottom lines of the chart. FAST Facts on the right side of the graph also list most of the statistics that are mentioned, but other exact information may come from other sources, such as my broker. SPY technical graph for 6 years (FAST graphs August 17, 2024) The current dividend yield is 1.26%, and it has a 5-year dividend growth rate of 5.48%. 1- Price/ Earnings “P/E” and Earnings per Share yield “EPS” Yield. The following explains how the 6.7% EPS metric is determined. Earnings drive success for any company, and without them, it will not grow nor pay a dividend. “P/E” is commonly used for most measurements and when inverted it becomes “EPS” earnings/share yield. The average P/E for most common stocks is 15, which is usually the orange line in the “FG” chart. 15 inverted is 1/15 = .066 or as a percent = EPS Yield of 6.7%, which represents an average investment or a share price of $15 for each $1 received as earnings. Being inversely related, as any stock price rises, so will the P/E (if the earnings are the same) and the EPS Yield will go lower. The P/E trend can be followed easily and is the paramount important factor for proper common stock valuation. The financial sector holds many “RICs”/ Regulated Investment companies where “FFO” / Funds from operations are used instead of earnings which will not be covered here which might have to be a separate article. 2- Dividend Yield and the 5-year Dividend Growth Rate/ 5yDGR It is common to use 5 years of dividend growth = 5yr DGR/ “5yDGR” to measure an investment's dividend raising success. The last 2 years will show a more current trend, hopefully more up than down. A positive trend is the investor friend. When the 5yr DGR is added to a company dividend yield, it can offer a comparison to the S&P 500/ SPY and the trend for success. The dividend yield of the S&P 500 or SPY is currently 1.26% To beat that current SPY yield by a 50% advantage one would need a 1.89% dividend yield to make most investors happy and some might want more. As mentioned after the chart of SPY the 5-year DGR is 5.48% and should be remembered for future use. 3- Chowder Rule/ Number - C# The C# is the 5yDGR added to the current individual stock dividend yield. It is important to know this is used primarily to make a purchase but can be a measure for stock continued performance. First, here is an overview of the C#'s and how they relate to SPY and dividend yield. For SPY the C# used for comparison is 5.48 + 1.89 = 7.37. One could say any stock that has that # or more would be beating SPY, as the 1.89 used was giving a 1.5x boost to the current yield of 1.26%. C# Levels There are 3 main C# levels that cover most all investible dividend paying stocks. The highest numbers are definitely and primarily based on lower dividend yielding stocks, whereas the 3rd level number is more for high-yield type investments. These are the original levels picked years ago, and some adjustment for personal needs/ desires is advised. # 15 When the yield is less than 2%, or the level needed to beat SPY. This is primarily used for most growth stocks with a lower yield. Each investor can decide if a lower # will suffice as it is based on beating SPY. # 12 When the yield is greater than 2%. In some cases, one could argue that a C# of 10 might be enough for just meeting inflationary means and not expecting a lot of growth from the investments. Again, that would be up to each and every individual to determine their own needs in that regard. # 8 These are, in general, solid safe dividend payers that do not rely greatly on price appreciation, but more on a solid dividend high yield, definitely near or over 3%. Utilities are considered to be a defensive investing sector and definitely get this lower #. The telecoms, some RICs and MLPs are also considered to be in this category, as they are winners for high yield, but not necessarily known for exceptional dividend raises. RIG 48 Stock Review 1- Earnings / Share Yield \"EPS\" The evaluation has been done for 48 stocks showing known statistics using the following abbreviations: Credit Rating = S&P credit rating Sector = Investing sector the stock is in such as:  C-Staple = Consumer Staple  Tech = Technology  Cons Discr = Consumer Discretionary  Fin/Tech = Technology financial  Comm = Communications Current Pr/Sh = Current price per share EPS %Yld = Inverse of the current P/E as taken from FASTgraphs “FG”. They are listed alphabetically and in 2 groups of 24. 19 EPS Winners. 19 pass the EPS% yield of at least 6.5% (6.7% is the exact #, but I am cheating down a bit). Those that meet the yield will have the ticker and number in bold print. The winners are listed after this chart for part 2 of the article evaluating P/E.          Credit     Company EPS%   Rating Sector Ticker Name Yield   A- Healthcare (ABBV) AbbVie 5.77   BBB+ Healthcare (AMGN) Amgen 5.93   BBB- Finance (ARCC) Ares Capital 11.61   BBB Tech (AVGO) Broadcom 3.15   BBB+ Comm (BCE) BCE Inc. 6.46   A+ Healthcare (BMY) Bristol Myers 7.3   BBB+ C-Staple (BTI) Brit Am Tobacco 13.04   A Industrial (CMI) Cummins 6.69   AA- Tech (CSCO) Cisco 8.13   BBB Healthcare (CVS) CVS Health 12.96   AA- Energy (CVX) Chevron 8.45   BBB+ Utility (D) Dominion 4.5   BBB+ Utility (DUK) Duke Energy 5.16   BBB+ Energy (ENB) Enbridge 5.3   BBB- Material (FMC) FMC Corp 5.72   A Ind-Def (GD) Gen Dynamics 4.62   BBB Cons Discr (GPC) Genuine Parts 6.83   A Cons Discr (HD) Home Depot 4.34   A C-Staple (HSY) Hershey 4.74   AAA Healthcare (JNJ) J & Johnson 6.21   A C-Staple (KMB) Kimberly Clark 4.98   A+ C-Staple (KO) Coca-Cola 4.06   A- Ind-Def (LMT) Lockheed Martin 4.89               Credit Type/   Company EPS%   Rating Sector Ticker Name Yield   A+ Fin/Tech (MA) Mastercard 2.96   BBB+ Consumer (MCD) McDonald's 4.42   BBB+ C-Staple (MDLZ) Mondelez 4.91     Utility (MGEE) Madison Gas El 4.14   BBB C-Staple (MO) Altria 10   A+ Healthcare (MRK) Merck 4.77     Tech (NVDA) Nvidia 1.92   A+ C-Staple (PEP) Pepsico 4.61   A Healthcare (PFE) Pfizer 8.1   A- C-Staple (PM) Philip Morris 5.39     Industrial (SBLK) Star Bulk Carrier 14.69   A+ Energy (SHEL) Shell Plc 11.69   A- Utility (SO) Southern 4.47   A- Real Estate (SPG) Simon Property 4.5   BBB Comm (T) ATT 11.74   A Utility (UGI) UGI Corp 12.44   A- Industrial (UNP) Union Pacific 4.58   AA- Fin/Tech (V) Visa 3.76   BBB Comm (VOD) Vodafone 9   BBB+ Comm (VZ) Verizon 11.36   BBB- Healthcare (WBA) Walgreens BA 27.41   A- Utility (WEC) Wis Electric 5.43   BBB Real Estate (WPC) WP Carey 5.21   A- Utility (XEL) Xcel Energy 6   AA- Energy (XOM) ExxonMobil 7.54   Click to enlarge 2- Price/Earnings -P/E The 19 winners for EPS Yield, and a few coming close, are now further reviewed for P/E. The following abbreviations are used: Now P/E = Price/Earnings as listed in FG P/E 1 year = P/E over the last year P/E 10 year = P/E 10-year average 9 True Winners The 9 winners have the stock name and ticker listed in bold. The few that come close are shown at the bottom of the chart below.           Stock Company EPS% Now P/E P/E   Ticker Name Yield P/E 1 year 10 years   ARCC Ares Capital 11.61 8.61x 8.8x 9.86x   BCE BCE Inc. 6.46 15.47x 16.98x 16.88x   BMY Bristol Myers 7.3 13.7x 8.09x 17.35x   BTI Brit Am Tobacco 13.04 7.67x 7.52x 12.23x   CMI Cummins 6.69 14.94x 13.81x 14.69x   CSCO Cisco 8.13 12.3x 13.44x 14.07x   CVS CVS Health 12.96 7.71x 9.88x 12.72x   CVX Chevron 8.45 11.84x 10.45x 18.34x   GPC Genuine Parts 6.83 14.65x 17.82x 19.49x   MO Altria 10 10x 8.8x 14.5x   PFE Pfizer 8.1 12.34x 11.72x 13.46x   SBLK Star Bulk Carrier 14.69 6.81x 7.4x 17.91x   SHEL Shell Plc 11.69 8.55x 6.54x 13.6x   T ATT 11.74 8.52x 7.06x 10.6x   UGI UGI Corp 12.44 8.04x 9.62x 16.79x   VOD Vodafone 9 11.12x 9.94x 22.05x   VZ Verizon 11.36 8.8x 7.81x 11.98x   WBA Walgreens BA 27.41 3.65x 6.66x 12.52x   XOM ExxonMobil 7.54 13.27x 9.17x 17.22x   These below almost win             JNJ J & Johnson 6.21 16.1x 16.6x 17.16x   XEL Xcel Energy 6 16.65x 20.3x 20.17x   Click to enlarge The 9 Winners Winners with both Low P/E and EPS Yield of 6.5% or more are: ARCC BCE, BTI, CSCO, CVS, GPC, SBLK, UGI, and even WBA. 5 Close to be Winners: Those with low P/E and not quite 6.5 EPS are: JNJ and XEL Those with high EPS and almost at low P/E are: MO, PFE and VZ. The 5 close winners are close and could or should be watched for a better price, especially in a volatile market. Now the last elimination is to apply the C# and see who wins out. 3- Chowder # Abbreviations used: 2024 E Div = 2024 estimated yearly $ dividend Div YLD = dividend yield using current price and shown yearly dividend 5yr DGR = 5-year dividend growth rate from “FG” 2yr DGR = 2-year dividend growth rate from “FG” C# = the dividend yield + the 5yr DGR Pass Y/N = Pass the Chowder #  Y = Yes  N = No A plus + or minus sign after the Y/N is in reference to the 2-year DGR entry. + plus = means the 2 yr DGR is growing and thus the C# could also rise in the future. - minus = means the 2 yr DGR is lower and the C# might be lower in the future. Winners that Pass the Chowder #. Those that Pass have the Stock Ticker in bold along with the Y under the Pass Y/N column. 6 Winners of all criteria. To reveal the final winners, I have added statistics to show pricing as well. Added are the current price, the 52-week Low and High prices for comparison for possible further due diligence or purchase. At the end of the chart are 5 that came close and should most likely be watched as well.               Stock 2024 Div 5yr 2yr   Pass Current 52 Week 52 Week   Ticker F Div YLD DGR DGR C# Y/ N Pr/Sh LOW HIGH   ARCC 1.92 9.26% 4.7 9.05 14 Y+ 20.74 $18.55 $21.84   BCE 2.92 8.51% 4.5 1.42 13 Y- 34.31 $31.13 $42.96   BTI 2.93 8.13% 2.5 -0.2 10.1 Y 36.06 $28.25 $36.45   CSCO 1.6 3.23% 4.5 2.7 8 n 49.46 $44.50 $58.19   CVS 2.66 4.56% 4 10 8.7 n+ 58.35 $52.77 $83.25   GPC 4 2.88% 5.7 8 8.6 n 138.86 $126.35 $164.45   SBLK 2.6 12.29% 883 56.5 78 Y 21.15 $16.86 $27.47   UGI 1.5 6.16% 7.7 4.4 14.1 Y- 24.37 $20.19 $26.15   WBA 1 9.16% 3.2 cut 12.5 y- 10.92 $10.19 $28.20   These are almost winners                     MO 3.92 7.64% 5.1 4.45 12.8 Y 51.32 $39.07 $51.40   PFE 1.68 5.94% 5 2.5 10.8 y- 28.3 $25.20 $37.19   JNJ 4.96 3.11% 5.8 5.9 9 n+ 159.39 $143.13 $175.39   VZ 2.69 6.62% 2 2 8.6 Y 40.61 $30.14 $43.42   XEL 2.2 3.67% 6.5 6.6 10.2 Y+ 59.98 $46.79 $64.25   Click to enlarge 6 Winners Rose Take and Recommendations ARCC Ares Capital, a BDC most likely should not have been included, but because of being considered quite high quality and with an S&P credit rating of BBB- it was. It's a “fav” of mine and if you don’t own it, watch it and buy on dips as it still has a little bit of room to run higher in price. BCE Canadian Telecommunication company with high yield but earnings continue to not actually cover the dividend, however cash flows do. If bought cheap enough, it is still a good one to own for income and the reason I own it. It does have the foreign exchange rate to follow and sometimes can be confusing until the actual dividend is received in $US. BTI Consumer Staple tobacco company headquartered in the UK. It is near a 52-week high and most likely is not going to rise in price just too much more. It offers high yield and therefore good income. Most tobacco stocks are under loved for health concerns which should be considered before making a purchase. The product is legal to use and own, so owning it for income is its real value. It does have an ADR fee. SBLK Star Bulk Carriers is a dry bulk marine shipping carrier headquartered in the Marshall Islands and is doing just fine for income. No K1 tax form. It has a very variable dividend record but offers high yield and then some, especially if purchased near its lows. UGI Quality regulated gas utility headquartered in PA. is out of favor currently due to circumstances out of its control. I feel it is maligned wrongly owing to the \"green\" environmental policies of late. It is still holding the dividend strong and easily. I find it to be a good income stock and has a 36-year record of paying a rising dividend. WBA This healthcare consumer sector company is struggling hugely and not recommended. It needs to sell off some of their foreign holdings and do some major restructuring and I believe it actually is struggling to even do that but is trying. It cut the dividend last year, and I am not sure if it can keep it as it is now. Very close to win: MO - Altria Consumer staple sector tobacco company that has 54 years of paying a rising dividend. Quality high-yield income. PFE - Pfizer Pfizer is a healthcare sector big pharma company with 14 years of paying a rising dividend. I like the yield and admit that is why I own it. Buy it cheap and enjoy the yield. JNJ - J&J Johnson & Johnson healthcare drug manufacturer has the talc issues most likely behind it. It still has the highest S&P credit rating of AAA. It most likely is worth paying a premium to own for quality, reliable income with 62 years of raising the dividend. Likewise, it truly was on the edge for EPS yield and wins for low P/E and has a middle of the road C#. I stay long and it is a solid keeper. VZ Verizon, a telecommunication company that continues to raise its dividend by 2%, is a great income stock. XEL - Xcel Energy It was expensive, sunk a bit, is rising again. It continues to have a rising dividend payment for over 21 years, which makes it attractive. Summary/ Conclusion  RIG with its 6.3% high-yield and rising value continues to perform well because of the goals set long ago along. The goals continue to be diversification, value purchasing, positive earnings and dividend growth from its constituents. The evaluation process is always on going, and reviewing the 3 metrics in this article was helpful for me and hopefully helped others learn the process or just learn from it. New additions are welcome that will improve the portfolio, and a Want to Buy \"WTB\" list is also found at the service. The search is a task I enjoy and pursue with all the metrics, goals and desires in mind.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2460987883"}