SPYV: Notching New Highs Ahead Of Spooky September Seasonality

seekingalpha08-24

The value style has worked off its July relative lows versus the growth factor.Value stocks more broadly are hitting all-time highs after Fed Chair Powell's remarks in Jackson Hole, WY.SPDR Portfolio ...

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GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4716857-spyv-notching-new-highs-ahead-of-spooky-september-seasonality><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The value style has worked off its July relative lows versus the growth factor.Value stocks more broadly are hitting all-time highs after Fed Chair Powell's remarks in Jackson Hole, WY.SPDR Portfolio ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4716857-spyv-notching-new-highs-ahead-of-spooky-september-seasonality\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SPXU","symbol_name":"三倍做空标普500ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4716857-spyv-notching-new-highs-ahead-of-spooky-september-seasonality","article_id":"2461968626","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/160716299/image_160716299.jpg"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2461968626","pubTimestamp":1724484980,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"The value style has worked off its July relative lows versus the growth factor.Value stocks more broadly are hitting all-time highs after Fed Chair Powell's remarks in Jackson Hole, WY.SPDR Portfolio 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Georgijevic Value stocks are notching all-time highs. Fed Chair Powell’s missive from the foothills of the Grand Tetons in Wyoming on Friday morning was immediately met with buying across the board. While large caps came off their morning highs by the afternoon on August 23, there remains a bullish aura around cyclical stocks ahead of the FOMC’s imminent rate-cutting cycle.  I reiterate a buy rating on the SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value ETF (NYSEARCA:SPYV). The value factor has had its fits and starts throughout 2024, but with sectors like Financials, Real Estate, and Utilities making significant advances over the past handful of months, it’s clear that there is durable risk appetite for old-school blue-chip equities. I see further upside heading into the end of the year but acknowledge that September is historically a weak month. The S&P 500 is down four Septembers running, actually, and SPYV has not gotten through the final month of the third quarter unscathed either. Still, SPYV valuation is reasonable while the technicals are strong. Value Rallying to New Highs, Working Off Its July Lows vs Growth   Stockcharts.com According to SSGA Funds, SPYV offers investors access to undervalued S&P 500 companies compared to the broader market. The underlying index, the S&P 500 Value Index, gauges the performance of large-cap value stocks in the U.S. equity market. The index includes stocks from the S&P 500 that display strong value characteristics, such as favorable book value-to-price ratios, earnings-to-price ratios, and sales-to-price ratios. The index's composition is weighted based on the market capitalization of its constituents. SPYV has grown since I last analyzed the ETF back in April. Assets under management is now $22.9 billion as of August 22, 2024, up from just $22 billion more than four months ago. The fund sports an exceptionally low 0.04% annual expense ratio while its forward dividend yield is about half a percentage point above that of the S&P 500. Share-price momentum, meanwhile, is strong, improving on a B+ score from late May. SPYV is also considered a somewhat low-risk equity ETF given its diversification across sectors and modest annual standard deviation percentage. Its ETF Grade by Seeking Alpha’s modeling is a solid B+. Finally, SPYV is a very actively traded fund – average daily volume is more than 2.8 million shares while its 30-day median bid/ask spread is tight at two basis points, per SSGA Funds, earning it a solid liquidity grade. For a refresher on the allocation, the 4-star, Silver-rated ETF by Morningstar is focused on the top left of the style box, evidence of its large-cap value tilt. But there is notable exposure to domestic mid-caps, which can add to its cyclical risk. With shares up about 6% from my April outlook, SPYV’s price-to-earnings ratio is up just one turn, so it remains a decent value compared with the P/E on the SPX which is now near 22.  A key risk is that its momentum factor grade is low (i.e., it does not hold significant weights in recent winners like NVIDIA (NVDA) and Eli Lilly (LLY)) and the portfolio’s earnings quality is low. SPYV: Portfolio & Factor Profiles   Morningstar What I like about SPYV is that its sector breakout is well mixed across the US stock market. Financials, which is notching all-time highs this month, is the biggest weight, but it’s just 22.4% of the allocation. Health Care is another overweight while Information Technology is just 9% of the fund – more than 20 percentage points under its weight in the SPX. SPYV: Holdings & Dividend Information   Seeking Alpha Seasonally, September is the worst month of the year when scanning SPYV’s 10-year historical trend. The average loss is 2.2%, and the ETF has not returned a positive figure since September of 2019. So, I would not be shocked to see some consolidation of this year’s gain now through early in the fourth quarter. SPYV: Weak September Seasonals, Bullish Q4   Seeking Alpha The Technical Take With some recent relative strength, strong absolute momentum, and concerning near-term seasonal risks, SPYV’s technical chart is healthy. Notice in the chart below that the fund is at fresh all-time highs on a weekly closing basis. Now up two weeks in a row, SPYV is near its upside measured move price objective based on its consolidation from mid-2021 through the third quarter of last year. The $9 range, which I detailed earlier this year, portended a target of $52. That has come to pass – another sign that we could see the upside move take a modest pause. But with a rising long-term 40-week moving average, which is about the same as a 200-day moving average, the bulls control the primary trend. I would, however, like to see the RSI momentum gauge at the top of the graph improve, but it has been holding the 60 level, not reaching oversold or overbought conditions recently.  Overall, with an uptrending chart, we could see a near-term pause, but I remain bullish over the intermediate term. SPYV: Bullish Uptrend, Price Target of $52 Archived   Stockcharts.com The Bottom Line  I reiterate a buy rating on SPYV. Despite the near-term risk of a pullback or consolidation based on seasonals and one chart pattern indicator, the fundamentals appear sound given the valuation and SPYV’s diversification as the Fed begins its rate-cutting cycle soon.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2461968626"}