Outline For The Election Playbook: Part 2

seekingalpha08-27

High single stock risk and lower market breadth, which could be seen during election years, underscores the importance of broad diversification.Tighter races have tended to lead to higher volatility. ...

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOutline For The Election Playbook: Part 2\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-27 18:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4717303-outline-for-election-playbook-part-2><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>High single stock risk and lower market breadth, which could be seen during election years, underscores the importance of broad diversification.Tighter races have tended to lead to higher volatility. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4717303-outline-for-election-playbook-part-2\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4535","symbol_name":"淡马锡持仓","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4717303-outline-for-election-playbook-part-2","article_id":"2462152973","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/2156705579/image_2156705579.jpg"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2462152973","pubTimestamp":1724754000,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"We examined the performance of markets before and after presidential elections and compared it to the performance of markets in non-election years. On average, in election years that end with no change in political party, the performance of the market has been statistically similar to non-election years.  However, in years with elections that end in a party switch, the market has  underperformed non-election years.1 Figure 1: Market performance in election years compared to non-election years   Chart description: Line chart depicting average S&P 500 price performance of the 12 months preceding and 12 months following: election days, with and without party change; and what would be an election day if it had taken place in a non-election year. Values are represented as a percentage of price on election day or hypothetical election day.   On average, U.S. markets have outperformed in the 12 months following a presidential election with no change in party, regardless of which party won or ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","FDN":"First Trust Dow Jones Internet I","LU2592432038.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1670627923.USD":"M&G (LUX) NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","USMV":"美国最小波动率ETF-iShares","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","LU2505996681.GBP":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (GBPHDG) INC","DYNF":"iShares U.S. Equity Factor Rotation Active ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU2505996509.AUD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (AUDHDG) INC","BK4135":"资产管理与托管银行","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","LU1291159041.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Silver Age A2 Acc SGD-H","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU0731783394.SGD":"Fidelity Global Dividend A-MINCOME(G)-SGD","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","LU1599440770.SGD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (SGDHDG) INC","QUAL":"iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","IDU":"iShares U.S. Utilities ETF","LU2430703095.HKD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (HKD) INC","LU1989771016.USD":"东方汇理环球老龄化投资基金 A2 Acc","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4567":"ESG概念","LU2430703178.SGD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1670628061.USD":"M&G (LUX) NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) INC","BLK":"贝莱德","LU2430703251.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (USD) INC","BK4139":"生物科技","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)"},"translate_title":"选举剧本大纲：第2部分","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"IEI":1,"USMV":1,"QUAL":1,"IDU":1,"DYNF":1,"VIRI":0.9,"FDN":0.9,"BLK":0.9},"content_text":"High single stock risk and lower market breadth, which could be seen during election years, underscores the importance of broad diversification.Tighter races have tended to lead to higher volatility. Investors concerned about volatility this year may have options, including minimum volatility exposures, buffered funds, and sectors that are historically less tethered to election outcomes.ETFs are diversified funds that can be appropriate for both core holdings and tactical trading around specific events.   J Studios/DigitalVision via Getty Images By Kristy Akullian, CFA Political outcomes and market outcomes can be intertwined, but it’s difficult to prove whether one causes the other. In fact, markets have tended to be agnostic about political leadership in the long term. As detailed in part 1 of our election playbook, investors who held the course as political winds changed earned nearly twice as much in the last decade vs those who plumped purely for their party. We take a more granular look at the market’s performance during election cycles here in part 2, focusing on:  The performance of markets before and after presidential elections. How markets have responded to contested races, and which sectors have stood out if election-related volatility was elevated.  Do Elections Matter To The Markets? We examined the performance of markets before and after presidential elections and compared it to the performance of markets in non-election years. On average, in election years that end with no change in political party, the performance of the market has been statistically similar to non-election years.  However, in years with elections that end in a party switch, the market has (on average) underperformed non-election years.1 Figure 1: Market performance in election years compared to non-election years   Chart description: Line chart depicting average S&P 500 price performance of the 12 months preceding and 12 months following: election days, with and without party change; and what would be an election day if it had taken place in a non-election year. Values are represented as a percentage of price on election day or hypothetical election day. (Index performance is for illustrative purposes only. Index performance does not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.) (Source: Bloomberg, Reuters. Market as represented by SPX Index, rebased to 0 on election day. As of August 7, 2024. Election years include 8 elections in the years: 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020. Of these, 5 resulted in a presidential change in party, while 3 did not.) On average, U.S. markets have outperformed in the 12 months following a presidential election with no change in party, regardless of which party won or lost.2 We believe, the outperformance likely does not stem from the continuity of political policy but rather likely a reflection that the factors that bolster market performance - macroeconomics, fiscal and monetary policies, corporate earnings, and investor sentiment - likely also helped convince the electorate to keep the same party in power. That said, we see evidence that some of the political uncertainty in elections has been associated with higher volatility in equity markets. Consistent with this idea of policy uncertainty, we found equity volatility has tracked slightly higher for the 90 days preceding presidential elections than in the 90 days following the election, with the heightened volatility even more pronounced in elections that ended with a party switch.3 We also analyzed the polling in each individual election in the sample period and found that the periods of rising equity volatility were contemporaneous with a tightening in the polling - tightly contested elections have been consistent with higher equity volatility. Figure 2: Average S&P 500 stock correlation around elections   Chart description: Line chart showing the average S&P 500 correlation for the 90 days preceding and 90 days following an election, for elections with and without a political party change. (Past performance does not guarantee future results.) (Source: Bloomberg, Reuters. Market as represented by SPX Index, correlation as defined by rolling 90d correlation. As of August 7, 2024. Averages calculated from S&P 500 correlations during election years since 1976.) Single stock risk has been elevated during election years, and market breadth has been lower; on average, the percentage of S&P 500 constituents that traded above their 200-day moving average has hovered in the upper 60s, but has dipped during election years before reversing back up to historical averages after November.4 When the number of outperformers narrows, the importance of diversification only grows. ETFs can provide a sensible way to mitigate risk though diversified funds, which can be appropriate for both core holdings and tactical trading around specific events. What Sectors Have Been Most (And Least) Affected By Elections? Among sectors, financials, energy, and materials have been notable outperformers in the 12 months following a presidential election.5 We do not attribute these results to the election cycle itself, but rather to the fact that the key supports for a cyclical upturn were already in place for the periods in the sample when elections took place. Notably, the sample contained a few unique factors that boosted the relative performance of these sectors, including the end of the global Financial Crisis in 2009 (Financials) and the end of the COVID lockdown in 2021 (Energy and Materials). Figure 3: Certain sectors stand out during election years: materials    Figure 4: Certain sectors stand out during election years: energy    Figure 5: Certain sectors stand out during election years: financials   Chart description: Figures 3, 4, and 5 are line charts showing price performance of the financials, energy, and materials sectors 12 months preceding and 12 months following election days. Values are represented as a percentage of price on election. (Index performance is for illustrative purposes only. Index performance does not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.) (Source: Bloomberg. Sectors as defined by S&P GICS. As of August 7, 2024. Election years include 8 elections in the years: 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020. Of these, 5 resulted in a presidential change in party, while 3 did not.) Conversely, both industrials and information technology sectors tended to be less sensitive to election outcomes, with their one-month return pre-election mirroring their one-month return post-election, dating back to 1992.6 Conclusion Against this backdrop, we encourage investors to stay invested. Rather than moving into - or staying in - cash, investors may consider buffered strategies, which look to track the return of a broad market up to an approximate upside limit, while seeking to maximize the downside protection against potential price declines. We also see opportunity in minimum volatility exposures, which can add resilience to portfolios as markets digest potential policy pivots and volatility could track higher. Defensive sectors like utilities can also benefit portfolios. Investors interested in minimum volatility or utilities could consider the iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF (USMV) or the iShares U.S. Utilities ETF (IDU). We continue to lean into quality in equities: margin resilience and profitability remain important against a backdrop of heightened macro volatility. The BlackRock U.S. Equity Factor Rotation ETF (DYNF) along with the iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF (QUAL) together can offer exposure to quality in your portfolio. Stay nimble in fixed income. Rates have already moved significantly in anticipation of the Fed being more aggressive with rate cuts, starting with its September meeting. With this in mind, we like the 3-7 year duration portion of the Treasury yield curve. Investors interested in treasuries with durations of 3 to 7 years, could explore the iShares 3-7 Year Treasure Bond ETF (IEI).  Footnotes 1 Source: Bloomberg. Market returns as represented by SPX Index, lookback period in reference to January 1, 1992, to December 31, 2020. As of August 9, 2024. 2 Source: Bloomberg. Market returns as represented by SPX Index, lookback period in reference to January 1, 1992, to December 31, 2020. As of August 9, 2024. 3 Source: Bloomberg. Volatility as represented by VIX Index, lookback period in reference to January 1, 1992, to December 31, 2020. As of August 9, 2024. 4 Source: Bloomberg. Lookback period in reference to January 1, 1992, to December 31, 2020. As of August 9, 2024. 5 Source: Bloomberg. Sector returns as represented by MSCI and S&P Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS), lookback period in reference to January 1, 1992, to December 31, 2020. As of August 9, 2024. 6 Source: Bloomberg. Sector returns as represented by MSCI and S&P Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS), lookback period in reference to January 1, 1992, to December 31, 2020. ‘Mirrored performance’ as represented by taking the 1m return before the election and the 1m return post-election, across each of the eleven sectors – industrials and info technology deemed as least sensitive by having the same directional performance in each timeframe (1m pre, 1m post) in seven of the last eight elections, the highest number relative to the rest of the sectors (and average of the 11 sectors). As of August 9, 2024. 7 Source: Bloomberg. As of August 20, 2024.  Carefully consider the Funds' investment objectives, risk factors, and charges and expenses before investing. 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All other trademarks are those of their respective owners. iCRMH0824U/S-3791712  This post originally appeared on the iShares Market Insights.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2462152973"}