Powell Is Cutting Rates, Bulls Cheer, But Reality Isn't So Neat

seekingalpha08-26

I closed out my hedges Thursday before the close but put the hedges back on Friday.Stocks rebounded sharply after Powell's statement on rate cuts.In my opinion, Powell will be more cautious about cuts...

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kjmson0202
08-30
kjmson0202
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Nerthuz Stocks rebounded on Friday after Powell’s Statement: “The direction is clear” Why?Did Powell say anything that we didn’t already know, and have known for weeks, if not longer?The Fed was going to cut in September, all the Fed presidents were hinting at it. Now the question is, is it .25% or .50%?Some interpreted Powell's breezy announcement as an opening to going .50%. 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Nerthuz Stocks rebounded on Friday after Powell’s Statement: “The direction is clear” Why? Did Powell say anything that we didn’t already know, and have known for weeks, if not longer? The Fed was going to cut in September, all the Fed presidents were hinting at it. Now the question is, is it .25% or .50%? Some interpreted Powell's breezy announcement as an opening to going .50%. Unless August's monthly Jobs number is very low and the unemployment percentage moves significantly higher, will Powell cut that deeply the first time out? I think the road ahead for economic numbers could be bumpier than market participants are currently prepared for. I think Powell starts slow because he is looking out further than the typical trader/investor. I think he has Q1 economic numbers of this year in mind and is concerned about a repeat next year. We saw a big spike in prices starting in January, this was especially true in services, many contracts and leases start at the beginning of the year and so do employee raises. So unless Powell really sees unemployment percentage jumping, the Fed will be loath to make deeper cuts. I don’t think they cut in October because they want to appear apolitical, November will be the next cut, perhaps then he cuts .50% in November if the unemployment percentage rate of 4.3%. Then he skips December and waits to see the January inflation numbers; if it’s a repeat of this year, he may want to hold off on more cuts. Perhaps my sequence is off, but Powell has a lot more to lose in cutting now than he did in raising Powell has saved his legacy and the Fed’s credibility by slaying the inflation dragon. He knew that historians would fault him less for pushing the economy in recession, than for letting inflation spiral out of control. Now in cutting, he does not want to be compared to Arthur Burns who knuckled under to President Nixon’s pressure to cut rates too soon, thereby reigniting inflation and making it worse by allowing it to seem intractable. Powell is very keen not to see a renewed spike in inflation, even as he says he is concerned about unemployment getting any higher. I think he would tolerate a higher number if he is thinking ahead to Q1 2025. That is my premise, of course, they could make a seasonal adjustment and discount contract renewals. I don’t think they will, in case the numbers don’t vary as much as this year had. I believe Powell will try the patience of the financial media and all the commentators who want deep cuts immediately. The economy is fine now, retail sales are strong and Q2 GDP is as well, Funny you should mention Q2 GDP because on Thursday we have the second estimate of Q2 GDP this Thursday at 830 am. GDP better not range too far from the first estimate because too hot, and market participants will remove .50% as a possibility, and too weak, and we get a growth scare. The growth scare is what I am most concerned about, the “long and variable lags” of fed tightening don’t seem to be very long now. Any significant slowing could rock this market. Let me be clear, I am not worried about cooling, a recession, or even renewed inflation. I am talking about the current narrative. If we understand where the current narrative is, we can assess what the risks of a sharp change in the narrative can do. This will hopefully let us zig when others are zagging. The current narrative is inflation is licked, the economy has landed softly, and the Fed is cutting -- Hooray! The Fed is cutting for the best reasons, not because the economy is faltering into a recession, and millions are being thrown out of work. No, the Fed is cutting because higher rates are no longer necessary, and as inflation is falling, real rates are too high. The real rate is the current Fed Funds Rate minus inflation. As inflation falls, the FFR gets more onerous, So the Fed is cutting to unleash more growth, the Fed has a dual mandate to fight inflation and encourage employment. The Fed assumes that this new level of growth will be healthy, non-inflationary growth. Otherwise, cutting would be at cross purposes to their mandate, and as I said earlier, if inflation starts up again it will stay more deeply fixed in the psyche of the average American. Inflation expectations depend on the Fed having the credibility that it can control inflation. If the Fed loses that gravitas a la Arthur Burns, we are in big trouble. We have two Fed Presidents speak on Wednesday, I bet they walk back some of Powell’s dovish tone. We’ve had this before; I don’t know if it’s his tone, or perhaps he is naturally optimistic, but most of the time he comes off reassuring. Then the Fed President walked a significant portion of his dovish delivery. Except during Jackson Hole's August 2022 “pain” speech, there he was really trying to be a scold. On August 28 at 11:15 AM, Waller gives a speech; less people will be listening to Bostic at 6 pm. Bostic has recently turned dovish, but if he pulls back it will go out on the news. Perhaps I am getting too in the weeds, but if there is some moderation from these Fed Presidents, I think that will be an important indication of Powell’s intent as it stands right now. Not enough to move markets, though. As I noted earlier, Thursday the 29th, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimates that real gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 2.8% in the second quarter of 2024, which is higher than the 1.4% increase in the first quarter. GDP estimates from the 1st to the 2nd estimate vary widely, with some 818K thousand workers being taken off the employment rolls as the Labor Department adjusted the numbers from April 2023 to March 2024. My fear is that the GDP number will be far lower than 2.8%. The other number to watch for is also on Thursday, and that is the weekly initial and continuing jobless claims. Please remember how this usually minor number moved the market recently. So the GDP, if it comes in lower and the Jobless claims are higher, could set off some selling in the market. Friday we have the Core PCE number for July, I think it should show disinflation because the PPI had benign numbers. Finally, NVIDIA (NVDA) reports earnings on Wednesday Everyone is expecting the same high growth rate as before, they are expecting perfection. Never in my recollection has so much of the market’s fate been wrapped up in one company’s financial performance. If there is even the slightest miss, then Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN) along with NVDA will all sell off substantially. I think Apple (AAPL) and Meta Platforms (META) are safe. AAPL because they are going to leverage other AI services, and META because they have demonstrated that they are already successfully using AI in their operations. Why am I looking at all the negative reasons why the market might sell off? I say this simply because the market is fully priced right now. We close at 5634.61 and the all-time high is 5669.67; we could break above that level in one strong up day. Certainly, by this week, I am bullish longer term, but earnings have to keep growing to justify a higher level in the indexes. So sure, maybe we hit 5700, 5800, or 6000 by the end of the year, but right now, I think we are fully priced. I know all you technicians will tell me that valuation is a poor timing mechanism and I agree, that is why I am listing a bunch of possibilities right here for this week. A week from tomorrow we will start September and there will be ample time before the next FOMC meeting for something to tip the market over. Maybe a .25% cut will be the signal for some selling. I haven’t looked at the SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust (SPY); maybe it can tell us something   TradingViewThis is not a satisfying chart at all. Perhaps I am exposing my own bias here but that bounce seems too hyperbolic to me, it is nearly through any resistance as you can see in the circle on the left of the red trend line. To me, this could easily turn out to be a double top, which would signal a corrective consolidation phase. As I said, I might be displaying my own bias here in that someone could easily say that we are about to break out and keep riding up to 5700+. If it does, it will be doing it without being. I might hold on to my longs, of course, but I will cut my hedges loose and admit that I was wrong. If I am right, then we could see another trip to 5300 to 5200. Am I the only one that remembers 65+ on the VIX? That doesn’t happen as a one-time thing. I am not predicting another VIX at that level, but for us to be riding 15 and under right now feels hugely complacent to me. The title of this article that I want to stress is Bulls Are Cheering, But Reality Isn’t So Neat. I think we are fully valued, and Goldie Locks could end up being eaten by the 3 bears. What to do? For traders, put cash to the side, for the investor, bide your time you can have some great stocks going on sale soon. As for me, I closed out most of my Hedges on Thursday at the close, but I was foolhardy enough to take execute options back on the Direxion Daily S&P500® Bull 3X Shares ETF (SPXL). I am also Long Calls on Silver ETF (SLV), and I was hoping to get on the SPDR® Gold Shares ETF (GLD) Calls as well, but they got away from me. Why am I interested in precious metals? Have you seen the Dollar Index DXY? It’s fixing to break the buck for the first time in several years. I think Central Banks will keep buying Gold. Silver is a catch-up trade to Gold; Silver has been lagging behind Gold, but you get periods when Silver gets better equilibrium to gold. I’m long SentinelOne (S) going into earnings on Tuesday, I don’t usually stay in options going into earnings, but this time, I think they will announce some new big customers. I am not short CrowdStrike (CRWD) but they will have to announce that they are setting aside money to pay for lawsuits. If they get sold off low enough, I will add more shares to my investment account. CRWD will get past this issue with the airlines and others, who are less public about the operational problems they had. They will have to reveal what discounts they are giving to keep affected customers. I am also long Palantir (PLTR), it has been a lot of fun, but I may have overstayed my welcome on the trading side. I have been a long-term investor in PLTR since the day it was listed. If NVDA does knock it out of the park, I will likely get long the Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares ETF (SOXL) for some long calls.  Ok, I hope you all have a great week and in spite of my gloomy predictions, I hope all your longs go up!","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":343932924977152,"gmtCreate":1724997497703,"gmtModify":1724997501092,"author":{"id":"4121924010492232","authorId":"4121924010492232","name":"kjmson0202","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c71dfb465f0cd6e163fa721476708d30","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4121924010492232","authorIdStr":"4121924010492232"},"htmlText":"룔&nbsp;","listText":"룔&nbsp;","text":"룔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/343932924977152","repostId":2462805749,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2462805749","pubTimestamp":1724639429,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2462805749?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-08-26 10:30","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Powell Is Cutting Rates, Bulls Cheer, But Reality Isn't So Neat","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2462805749","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"I closed out my hedges Thursday before the close but put the hedges back on Friday.Stocks rebounded sharply after Powell's statement on rate cuts.In my opinion, Powell will be more cautious about cuts in 2024 and early 2025 in case inflation might rise in Q1 2025 like it did in 2024.The market is fully priced, with potential correction ahead; I favor having more cash, shorting individual stocks via Puts, and hedging strategies.   Nerthuz Stocks rebounded on Friday after Powell’s Statement: “The direction is clear” Why?Did Powell say anything that we didn’t already know, and have known for weeks, if not longer?The Fed was going to cut in September, all the Fed presidents were hinting at it. Now the question is, is it .25% or .50%?Some interpreted Powell's breezy announcement as an opening to going .50%. Unless August's monthly Jobs number is very low and the unemployment percentage moves significantly higher, will Powell cut that deeply the first time out?","content":"<html><body><ul><li>I closed out my hedges Thursday before the close but put the hedges back on Friday.</li><li>Stocks rebounded sharply after Powell's statement on rate cuts.</li><li>In my opinion, Powell will be more cautious about cuts in 2024 and early 2025 in case inflation might rise in Q1 2025 like it did in 2024.</li><li>The market is fully priced, with potential correction ahead; I favor having more cash, shorting individual stocks via Puts, and hedging strategies.</li></ul><figure><picture> <img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"1207px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1004684602/image_1004684602.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1004684602/image_1004684602.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1004684602/image_1004684602.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1004684602/image_1004684602.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1004684602/image_1004684602.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1004684602/image_1004684602.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1004684602/image_1004684602.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1004684602/image_1004684602.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1004684602/image_1004684602.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>Nerthuz</p></figcaption></figure> <h2>Stocks rebounded on Friday after Powell’s Statement: “The direction is clear”</h2> <p>Why? Did Powell say anything that we didn’t already know, and have known for weeks, if not longer? The Fed was going to cut in September, all the Fed presidents were hinting at it. Now<span> the question is, is it .25% or .50%? Some interpreted Powell's breezy announcement as an opening to going .50%. Unless August's monthly Jobs number is very low and the unemployment percentage moves significantly higher, will Powell cut that deeply the first time out? I think the road ahead for economic numbers could be bumpier than market participants are currently prepared for. I think Powell starts slow because he is looking out further than the typical trader/investor. I think he has Q1 economic numbers of this year in mind and is concerned about a repeat next year. We saw a big spike in prices starting in January, this<span> was especially true in services, many contracts and leases start at the beginning of the year and so do employee raises. So unless Powell really sees unemployment percentage jumping, the Fed will be loath to make deeper cuts. I don’t think they cut in October because they want to appear apolitical, November will be the next cut, perhaps then he cuts .50% in November if the unemployment percentage rate of 4.3%. Then he skips December and waits to see the January inflation numbers; if it’s a repeat of this year, he may want to hold off on more cuts.</span></span></p> <h2>Perhaps my sequence is off, but Powell has a lot more to lose in cutting now than he did in raising</h2> <p>Powell has saved his legacy and the Fed’s credibility by slaying the inflation dragon. He knew that historians would fault him less for pushing the economy in recession, than for letting inflation spiral out of control. Now in cutting, he does not want to be compared to Arthur Burns who knuckled under to President Nixon’s pressure to cut rates too soon, thereby reigniting inflation and making it worse by allowing it to seem intractable. Powell is very keen not to see a renewed spike in inflation, even as he says he is concerned about unemployment getting any higher. I think he would tolerate a higher number if he is thinking ahead to Q1 2025. That is my premise, of course, they could make a seasonal adjustment and discount contract renewals. I don’t think they will, in case the numbers don’t vary as much as this year had. I believe Powell will try the patience of the financial media and all the commentators who want deep cuts immediately.</p> <h2>The economy is fine now, retail sales are strong and Q2 GDP is as well,</h2> <p>Funny you should mention Q2 GDP because on Thursday we have the second estimate of Q2 GDP this Thursday at 830 am. GDP better not range too far from the first estimate because too hot, and market participants will remove .50% as a possibility, and too weak, and we get a growth scare. The growth scare is what I am most concerned about, the “long and variable lags” of fed tightening don’t seem to be very long now. Any significant slowing could rock this market. Let me be clear, I am not worried about cooling, a recession, or even renewed inflation. I am talking about the current narrative. If we understand where the current narrative is, we can assess what the risks of a sharp change in the narrative can do. This will hopefully let us zig when others are zagging.</p> <h2>The current narrative is inflation is licked, the economy has landed softly, and the Fed is cutting -- Hooray!</h2> <p>The Fed is cutting for the best reasons, not because the economy is faltering into a recession, and millions are being thrown out of work. No, the Fed is cutting because higher rates are no longer necessary, and as inflation is falling, real rates are too high. The real rate is the current Fed Funds Rate minus inflation. As inflation falls, the FFR gets more onerous, So the Fed is cutting to unleash more growth, the Fed has a dual mandate to fight inflation and encourage employment. The Fed assumes that this new level of growth will be healthy, non-inflationary growth. Otherwise, cutting would be at cross purposes to their mandate, and as I said earlier, if inflation starts up again it will stay more deeply fixed in the psyche of the average American. Inflation expectations depend on the Fed having the credibility that it can control inflation. If the Fed loses that gravitas a la Arthur Burns, we are in big trouble.</p> <h2>We have two Fed Presidents speak on Wednesday, I bet they walk back some of Powell’s dovish tone.</h2> <p>We’ve had this before; I don’t know if it’s his tone, or perhaps he is naturally optimistic, but most of the time he comes off reassuring. Then the Fed President walked a significant portion of his dovish delivery. Except during Jackson Hole's August 2022 “pain” speech, there he was really trying to be a scold. On August 28 at 11:15 AM, Waller gives a speech; less people will be listening to Bostic at 6 pm. Bostic has recently turned dovish, but if he pulls back it will go out on the news. Perhaps I am getting too in the weeds, but if there is some moderation from these Fed Presidents, I think that will be an important indication of Powell’s intent as it stands right now. Not enough to move markets, though. As I noted earlier, Thursday the 29th, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimates that real gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 2.8% in the second quarter of 2024, which is higher than the 1.4% increase in the first quarter. GDP estimates from the 1st to the 2nd estimate vary widely, with some 818K thousand workers being taken off the employment rolls as the Labor Department adjusted the numbers from April 2023 to March 2024. My fear is that the GDP number will be far lower than 2.8%. The other number to watch for is also on Thursday, and that is the weekly initial and continuing jobless claims. Please remember how this usually minor number moved the market recently. So the GDP, if it comes in lower and the Jobless claims are higher, could set off some selling in the market. Friday we have the Core PCE number for July, I think it should show disinflation because the PPI had benign numbers.</p> <h2>Finally, NVIDIA (NVDA) reports earnings on Wednesday</h2> <p>Everyone is expecting the same high growth rate as before, they are expecting perfection. Never in my recollection has so much of the market’s fate been wrapped up in one company’s financial performance. If there is even the slightest miss, then Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN) along with NVDA will all sell off substantially. I think Apple (AAPL) and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a> (META) are safe. AAPL because they are going to leverage other AI services, and META because they have demonstrated that they are already successfully using AI in their operations.</p> <h2>Why am I looking at all the negative reasons why the market might sell off?</h2> <p>I say this simply because the market is fully priced right now. We close at 5634.61 and the all-time high is 5669.67; we could break above that level in one strong up day. Certainly, by this week, I am bullish longer term, but earnings have to keep growing to justify a higher level in the indexes. So sure, maybe we hit 5700, 5800, or 6000 by the end of the year, but right now, I think we are fully priced. I know all you technicians will tell me that valuation is a poor timing mechanism and I agree, that is why I am listing a bunch of possibilities right here for this week. A week from tomorrow we will start September and there will be ample time before the next FOMC meeting for something to tip the market over. Maybe a .25% cut will be the signal for some selling. I haven’t looked at the SPDR® S&amp;P 500® ETF Trust (SPY); maybe it can tell us something</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/25/saupload_c04f5fa6f627c3530151f9403b4b5495.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>TradingView</span></p></figcaption></figure><p>This is not a satisfying chart at all. Perhaps I am exposing my own bias here but that bounce seems too hyperbolic to me, it is nearly through any resistance as you can see in the circle on the left of the red trend line. To me, this could easily turn out to be a double top, which would signal a corrective consolidation phase. As I said, I might be displaying my own bias here in that someone could easily say that we are about to break out and keep riding up to 5700+. If it does, it will be doing it without being. I might hold on to my longs, of course, but I will cut my hedges loose and admit that I was wrong. If I am right, then we could see another trip to 5300 to 5200. Am I the only one that remembers 65+ on the VIX? That doesn’t happen as a one-time thing. I am not predicting another VIX at that level, but for us to be riding 15 and under right now feels hugely complacent to me. The title of this article that I want to stress is Bulls Are Cheering, But Reality Isn’t So Neat. I think we are fully valued, and Goldie Locks could end up being eaten by the 3 bears.</p> <h2>What to do?</h2> <p>For traders, put cash to the side, for the investor, bide your time you can have some great stocks going on sale soon. As for me, I closed out most of my Hedges on Thursday at the close, but I was foolhardy enough to take execute options back on the Direxion Daily S&amp;P500® Bull 3X Shares ETF (SPXL). I am also Long Calls on Silver ETF (SLV), and I was hoping to get on the SPDR® Gold Shares ETF (GLD) Calls as well, but they got away from me. Why am I interested in precious metals? Have you seen the Dollar Index DXY? It’s fixing to break the buck for the first time in several years. I think Central Banks will keep buying Gold. Silver is a catch-up trade to Gold; Silver has been lagging behind Gold, but you get periods when Silver gets better equilibrium to gold. I’m long SentinelOne (S) going into earnings on Tuesday, I don’t usually stay in options going into earnings, but this time, I think they will announce some new big customers. I am not short CrowdStrike (CRWD) but they will have to announce that they are setting aside money to pay for lawsuits. If they get sold off low enough, I will add more shares to my investment account. CRWD will get past this issue with the airlines and others, who are less public about the operational problems they had. They will have to reveal what discounts they are giving to keep affected customers. I am also long Palantir (PLTR), it has been a lot of fun, but I may have overstayed my welcome on the trading side. I have been a long-term investor in PLTR since the day it was listed. If NVDA does knock it out of the park, I will likely get long the Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares ETF (SOXL) for some long calls.</p> <div></div> <p><strong>Ok, I hope you all have a great week and in spite of my gloomy predictions, I hope all your longs go up!</strong></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell Is Cutting Rates, Bulls Cheer, But Reality Isn't So Neat</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell Is Cutting Rates, Bulls Cheer, But Reality Isn't So Neat\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-26 10:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4716985-powell-is-cutting-rates-bulls-cheer-but-reality-isnt-so-neat><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>I closed out my hedges Thursday before the close but put the hedges back on Friday.Stocks rebounded sharply after Powell's statement on rate cuts.In my opinion, Powell will be more cautious about cuts...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4716985-powell-is-cutting-rates-bulls-cheer-but-reality-isnt-so-neat\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1004684602/image_1004684602.jpg","relate_stocks":{"LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","SPXL":"Direxion每日三倍看多标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","GLD":"SPDR黄金ETF","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc.","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","IE00B894F039.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc SGD-H","SLV":"白银ETF(iShares)","SOXL":"三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","BK4566":"资本集团","CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AMZN":"亚马逊","BK4220":"综合零售","GDP":"古德里奇","FDN":"First Trust Dow Jones Internet I","BK4579":"人工智能","SPY":"标普500ETF","AAPL":"苹果","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","IE0003U64NQ7.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","MSFT":"微软","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","S":"SentinelOne, Inc","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4716985-powell-is-cutting-rates-bulls-cheer-but-reality-isnt-so-neat","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2462805749","content_text":"I closed out my hedges Thursday before the close but put the hedges back on Friday.Stocks rebounded sharply after Powell's statement on rate cuts.In my opinion, Powell will be more cautious about cuts in 2024 and early 2025 in case inflation might rise in Q1 2025 like it did in 2024.The market is fully priced, with potential correction ahead; I favor having more cash, shorting individual stocks via Puts, and hedging strategies.   Nerthuz Stocks rebounded on Friday after Powell’s Statement: “The direction is clear” Why? Did Powell say anything that we didn’t already know, and have known for weeks, if not longer? The Fed was going to cut in September, all the Fed presidents were hinting at it. Now the question is, is it .25% or .50%? Some interpreted Powell's breezy announcement as an opening to going .50%. Unless August's monthly Jobs number is very low and the unemployment percentage moves significantly higher, will Powell cut that deeply the first time out? I think the road ahead for economic numbers could be bumpier than market participants are currently prepared for. I think Powell starts slow because he is looking out further than the typical trader/investor. I think he has Q1 economic numbers of this year in mind and is concerned about a repeat next year. We saw a big spike in prices starting in January, this was especially true in services, many contracts and leases start at the beginning of the year and so do employee raises. So unless Powell really sees unemployment percentage jumping, the Fed will be loath to make deeper cuts. I don’t think they cut in October because they want to appear apolitical, November will be the next cut, perhaps then he cuts .50% in November if the unemployment percentage rate of 4.3%. Then he skips December and waits to see the January inflation numbers; if it’s a repeat of this year, he may want to hold off on more cuts. Perhaps my sequence is off, but Powell has a lot more to lose in cutting now than he did in raising Powell has saved his legacy and the Fed’s credibility by slaying the inflation dragon. He knew that historians would fault him less for pushing the economy in recession, than for letting inflation spiral out of control. Now in cutting, he does not want to be compared to Arthur Burns who knuckled under to President Nixon’s pressure to cut rates too soon, thereby reigniting inflation and making it worse by allowing it to seem intractable. Powell is very keen not to see a renewed spike in inflation, even as he says he is concerned about unemployment getting any higher. I think he would tolerate a higher number if he is thinking ahead to Q1 2025. That is my premise, of course, they could make a seasonal adjustment and discount contract renewals. I don’t think they will, in case the numbers don’t vary as much as this year had. I believe Powell will try the patience of the financial media and all the commentators who want deep cuts immediately. The economy is fine now, retail sales are strong and Q2 GDP is as well, Funny you should mention Q2 GDP because on Thursday we have the second estimate of Q2 GDP this Thursday at 830 am. GDP better not range too far from the first estimate because too hot, and market participants will remove .50% as a possibility, and too weak, and we get a growth scare. The growth scare is what I am most concerned about, the “long and variable lags” of fed tightening don’t seem to be very long now. Any significant slowing could rock this market. Let me be clear, I am not worried about cooling, a recession, or even renewed inflation. I am talking about the current narrative. If we understand where the current narrative is, we can assess what the risks of a sharp change in the narrative can do. This will hopefully let us zig when others are zagging. The current narrative is inflation is licked, the economy has landed softly, and the Fed is cutting -- Hooray! The Fed is cutting for the best reasons, not because the economy is faltering into a recession, and millions are being thrown out of work. No, the Fed is cutting because higher rates are no longer necessary, and as inflation is falling, real rates are too high. The real rate is the current Fed Funds Rate minus inflation. As inflation falls, the FFR gets more onerous, So the Fed is cutting to unleash more growth, the Fed has a dual mandate to fight inflation and encourage employment. The Fed assumes that this new level of growth will be healthy, non-inflationary growth. Otherwise, cutting would be at cross purposes to their mandate, and as I said earlier, if inflation starts up again it will stay more deeply fixed in the psyche of the average American. Inflation expectations depend on the Fed having the credibility that it can control inflation. If the Fed loses that gravitas a la Arthur Burns, we are in big trouble. We have two Fed Presidents speak on Wednesday, I bet they walk back some of Powell’s dovish tone. We’ve had this before; I don’t know if it’s his tone, or perhaps he is naturally optimistic, but most of the time he comes off reassuring. Then the Fed President walked a significant portion of his dovish delivery. Except during Jackson Hole's August 2022 “pain” speech, there he was really trying to be a scold. On August 28 at 11:15 AM, Waller gives a speech; less people will be listening to Bostic at 6 pm. Bostic has recently turned dovish, but if he pulls back it will go out on the news. Perhaps I am getting too in the weeds, but if there is some moderation from these Fed Presidents, I think that will be an important indication of Powell’s intent as it stands right now. Not enough to move markets, though. As I noted earlier, Thursday the 29th, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimates that real gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 2.8% in the second quarter of 2024, which is higher than the 1.4% increase in the first quarter. GDP estimates from the 1st to the 2nd estimate vary widely, with some 818K thousand workers being taken off the employment rolls as the Labor Department adjusted the numbers from April 2023 to March 2024. My fear is that the GDP number will be far lower than 2.8%. The other number to watch for is also on Thursday, and that is the weekly initial and continuing jobless claims. Please remember how this usually minor number moved the market recently. So the GDP, if it comes in lower and the Jobless claims are higher, could set off some selling in the market. Friday we have the Core PCE number for July, I think it should show disinflation because the PPI had benign numbers. Finally, NVIDIA (NVDA) reports earnings on Wednesday Everyone is expecting the same high growth rate as before, they are expecting perfection. Never in my recollection has so much of the market’s fate been wrapped up in one company’s financial performance. If there is even the slightest miss, then Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN) along with NVDA will all sell off substantially. I think Apple (AAPL) and Meta Platforms (META) are safe. AAPL because they are going to leverage other AI services, and META because they have demonstrated that they are already successfully using AI in their operations. Why am I looking at all the negative reasons why the market might sell off? I say this simply because the market is fully priced right now. We close at 5634.61 and the all-time high is 5669.67; we could break above that level in one strong up day. Certainly, by this week, I am bullish longer term, but earnings have to keep growing to justify a higher level in the indexes. So sure, maybe we hit 5700, 5800, or 6000 by the end of the year, but right now, I think we are fully priced. I know all you technicians will tell me that valuation is a poor timing mechanism and I agree, that is why I am listing a bunch of possibilities right here for this week. A week from tomorrow we will start September and there will be ample time before the next FOMC meeting for something to tip the market over. Maybe a .25% cut will be the signal for some selling. I haven’t looked at the SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust (SPY); maybe it can tell us something   TradingViewThis is not a satisfying chart at all. Perhaps I am exposing my own bias here but that bounce seems too hyperbolic to me, it is nearly through any resistance as you can see in the circle on the left of the red trend line. To me, this could easily turn out to be a double top, which would signal a corrective consolidation phase. As I said, I might be displaying my own bias here in that someone could easily say that we are about to break out and keep riding up to 5700+. If it does, it will be doing it without being. I might hold on to my longs, of course, but I will cut my hedges loose and admit that I was wrong. If I am right, then we could see another trip to 5300 to 5200. Am I the only one that remembers 65+ on the VIX? That doesn’t happen as a one-time thing. I am not predicting another VIX at that level, but for us to be riding 15 and under right now feels hugely complacent to me. The title of this article that I want to stress is Bulls Are Cheering, But Reality Isn’t So Neat. I think we are fully valued, and Goldie Locks could end up being eaten by the 3 bears. What to do? For traders, put cash to the side, for the investor, bide your time you can have some great stocks going on sale soon. As for me, I closed out most of my Hedges on Thursday at the close, but I was foolhardy enough to take execute options back on the Direxion Daily S&P500® Bull 3X Shares ETF (SPXL). I am also Long Calls on Silver ETF (SLV), and I was hoping to get on the SPDR® Gold Shares ETF (GLD) Calls as well, but they got away from me. Why am I interested in precious metals? Have you seen the Dollar Index DXY? It’s fixing to break the buck for the first time in several years. I think Central Banks will keep buying Gold. Silver is a catch-up trade to Gold; Silver has been lagging behind Gold, but you get periods when Silver gets better equilibrium to gold. I’m long SentinelOne (S) going into earnings on Tuesday, I don’t usually stay in options going into earnings, but this time, I think they will announce some new big customers. I am not short CrowdStrike (CRWD) but they will have to announce that they are setting aside money to pay for lawsuits. If they get sold off low enough, I will add more shares to my investment account. CRWD will get past this issue with the airlines and others, who are less public about the operational problems they had. They will have to reveal what discounts they are giving to keep affected customers. I am also long Palantir (PLTR), it has been a lot of fun, but I may have overstayed my welcome on the trading side. I have been a long-term investor in PLTR since the day it was listed. If NVDA does knock it out of the park, I will likely get long the Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares ETF (SOXL) for some long calls.  Ok, I hope you all have a great week and in spite of my gloomy predictions, I hope all your longs go up!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.2","shortVersion":"4.29.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2462805749"}