Bottom-up default shifts significantly lower for telecoms, pharma; higher for tech

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2463076307?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1058471606/image_1058471606.jpg","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2024-08-30 23:58","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","id":"2463076307","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Bottom-up default shifts significantly lower for telecoms, pharma; higher for tech","media":"seekingalpha","content":"<div>\n<p>Telecommunications (NYSEARCA:XTL), (IYZ) and pharmaceuticals (PJP), (XPH), (PPH) have seen the most downward shifts in their default probability, according to Goldman Sachs’ bottom-up default model. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4145562-bottom-up-default-shifts-significantly-lower-for-telecoms-pharma-higher-for-tech\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bottom-up default shifts significantly lower for telecoms, pharma; higher for tech</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBottom-up default shifts significantly lower for telecoms, pharma; higher for tech\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-30 23:58 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/4145562-bottom-up-default-shifts-significantly-lower-for-telecoms-pharma-higher-for-tech><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Telecommunications (NYSEARCA:XTL), (IYZ) and pharmaceuticals (PJP), (XPH), (PPH) have seen the most downward shifts in their default probability, according to Goldman Sachs’ bottom-up default model. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4145562-bottom-up-default-shifts-significantly-lower-for-telecoms-pharma-higher-for-tech\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"XLK","symbol_name":"高科技指数ETF-SPDR","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/4145562-bottom-up-default-shifts-significantly-lower-for-telecoms-pharma-higher-for-tech","article_id":"2463076307","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1058471606/image_1058471606.jpg"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2463076307","pubTimestamp":1725033514,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Telecommunications (NYSEARCA:XTL), (IYZ) and pharmaceuticals (PJP), (XPH), (PPH) have seen the most downward shifts in their default probability, according to Goldman Sachs’ bottom-up default model. L","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"XLK":"高科技指数ETF-SPDR","BK4582":"ESG ETF-MSCI","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","XTN":"SPDR S&P Transportation ETF","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","LU2237443895.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I -  GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","VGT":"信息技术ETF-Vanguard","PJP":"INVESCO PHARMACEUTICALS ETF","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","LU1791807156.HKD":"BGF WORLD FINANCIALS \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","RTH":"零售指数ETF-HOLDRs","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","HYLB":"Xtrackers USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","LU2237443622.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc USD","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU2237443465.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I -  GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","IE00BFXG1179.USD":"BNY MELLON U.S. EQUITY INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","XPH":"SPDR S&P Pharmaceuticals ETF","IYT":"运输指数ETF-iShares","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","PPH":"VanEck Pharmaceutical ETF","BK4588":"碎股","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","IYW":"美国科技ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","IYZ":"电信业ETF-iShares","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","HYG":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx高收益公司债","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","FTXR":"First Trust Nasdaq Transportation ETF","XRT":"零售指数ETF-SPDR标普"},"translate_title":"电信、制药行业自下而上的违约率大幅下降；科技含量更高","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"IYW":1,"XTN":1,"XRT":1,"XPH":1,"XLK":1,"VGT":1,"RTH":1,"PPH":1,"PJP":1,"IYZ":1,"IYT":1,"HYG":1,"FTXR":1,"HYLB":1},"content_text":"Telecommunications (NYSEARCA:XTL), (IYZ) and pharmaceuticals (PJP), (XPH), (PPH) have seen the most downward shifts in their default probability, according to Goldman Sachs’ bottom-up default model. Lotfi Karoui, chief credit strategist at Goldman Sachs, said that this decline “reflects a combination of a positive survivorship bias in the case of pharma (XPH) as well as some improvement in fundamentals in the case of wirelines.” In addition, retail (XRT), (RTH) has also seen a great drop in default risk due to strong performance this year, Karoui said. On the other hand, technology (VGT), (IYW), (XLK) and transportation services (XTN), (IYT), (FTXR) have seen rises in default risk. “There has been a marked increase in stress in the CCC bucket (vulnerable issuers), while BB and B issuers (higher risk and ‘significantly higher’ risk of default issuers) have seen decent declines in the aggregate probabilities of default,” Karoui said. CCC issuers face a higher probability of default relative to one year prior, while higher-quality high-yield (HYG), (HYLB) bonds have improved. “Capturing the upside from the historically elevated dispersion in the HY bond market will be best achieved via sector and single name selection, as opposed to a heavy allocation on the CCC bucket.” Here is a summary of the default risk per sector:  Telecoms: about 2.8% in 2Q2024 vs. 5.1% in 2Q2023 Technology: about 2.8% in 2Q2024 vs. 1% in 2Q2023 Transportation services: about 3% in 2Q2024 vs. 0.4% in 2Q2023 Media and entertainment: about 3% in 2Q2024 vs. 2% in 2Q2023 Leisure: about 2.4% in 2Q2024 vs. 2.9% in 2Q2023 REITs: about 2% in 2Q2024 vs. 0.5% in 2Q2023 Health care: about 1.8% in 2Q2024 vs. 2% in 2Q2023 Paper: about 1.8% in 2Q2024 vs. 1.7% in 2Q2023 Airlines: about 1% in 2Q2024 vs. 0.1% in 2Q2023 Cable and satellite: about % in 2Q2024 vs. % in 2Q2023 Consumer cyclical services: about 1% in 2Q2024 vs. 0.9% in 2Q2023 Chemicals: about 0.8% in 2Q2024 vs. 0.2% in 2Q2023 Metals and mining: about 0.8% in 2Q2024 vs. 0.7% in 2Q2023 Retail: about 0.8% in 2Q2024 vs. 2% in 2Q2023 Other finance: about 0.6% in 2Q2024 vs. 1% in 2Q2023 Pharmaceuticals: about 0.5% in 2Q2024 vs. 3.2% in 2Q2023","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.4","shortVersion":"4.29.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2463076307"}