Commodities brace for September volatility after fourth weekly gain - Saxo Bank

seekingalpha08-30

With the commodities sector heading for its fourth consecutive weekly gain, the market braces for September volatility, driven by the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate cut decisions, with industrial metals ...

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Throughout August, the sector has been supported by a combination of a softer dollar (DXY), lower Treasury yields, helping gold (XAUUSD:CUR) achieve a second-consecutive monthly gain, up 2.9% so far.  Traders and analysts watching U.S. economic data have gone from fearing a sharp slowdown to a soft landing, and with inflation continuing to drift lower and China showing signs of improvement, the demand outlook for growth- and demand-dependent commodities has improved, Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen said in a note on Friday. \"At this point, however, plenty of uncertainty exists, so while we see the month-long correction as having run its course, the prospect for a strong rebound remains limited until the global economic outlook strengthens further—not least in China and Europe, where expectations for economic growth continue to deteriorate,\" Hansen added. Overall, the Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index trades up around 1.3% on the month, and 2.2% on the year, with losses across the energy sector and a much-reduced loss in grains, being more than offset by gains across industrial and precious metals. The oil benchmarks face a second-straight monthly loss (CO1:COM) (CL1:COM). According to Hansen, September is expected to deliver some volatility, not least driven by the market's response to how the FOMC will present and deliver the expected rate cut. While interest rate-sensitive investors may cheer the beginning of a rate cut cycle, which may increase appetite for industrial metals towards restocking, and gold as the lower cost of carry helps attract fresh demand, gold has, for various reasons, struggled during September recently. The grains sector will also be watched closely during September as the result of this year’s Northern Hemisphere harvest becomes known.  On oil, the brokerages, the opposing forces between soft demand into the fourth quarter, Libya cuts and an OPEC+ increase will likely keep prices range bound with the upside limited for now. Finally copper, from a technical standpoint, the recent rally has seen traders turn towards a \"buy-on-dip strategy as opposed to the sell-into-rallies\" that was seen during the May to July correction, and while Saxo Bank believe the worst of the correction is over, futures prices in London and New York have yet to challenge key resistance around $9,500 per ton and $4.5 per pound respectively.  ETFs: (NYSEARCA:GLD), (GDX), (GDXJ), (IAU), (NUGT), (PHYS), (GLDM), (AAAU), (SGOL), (BAR), (OUNZ), (SLV), (PSLV), (SIVR), (SIL), (SILJ) ETFs: (NYSEARCA:USO), (BNO), (UCO), (SCO), (USL), (DBO), (DRIP), (GUSH), (USOI), (UNG), (BOIL), (KOLD), (UNL), (FCG) ETFs: (WEAT), (CORN), (SOYB), (DBA), (MOO)","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"Economic Data","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2463768470"}