MW This type of index fund might help you after the S&P 500's concentration peaks
By Philip van Doorn
The U.S. large-cap benchmark stock index is heavily concentrated on a handful of stocks. There is an easy way to broaden your risk - one that has performed better over the years.
S&P 500 index funds have been wonderful tools for investors who wish to avoid the risk of selecting their own stocks. Over recent years, the index has performed even better than usual, as it has rewarded the success of rapidly growing Big Tech companies. But the U.S. stock market's concentration by market capitalization is nearing a peak level - a lot of risk is spread among a handful of stocks.
As of Aug. 30, the portfolio of the $566 billion SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY - the first and largest exchange-traded fund tracking the S&P 500 SPX - was 19.6% concentrated in three stocks: Apple Inc. $(AAPL)$, Microsoft Corp. $(MSFT)$ and Nvidia Corp. $(NVDA)$. These are wonderful companies, but such a high concentration runs counter to the diversification that an index-fund investor might want. A decade ago, the top three holdings of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust made up 7.9% of the fund's investment portfolio, according to its semi-annual report as of June 30, 2014.
The S&P 500's average annual return for five years through August, with dividends reinvested, was 15.9%, according to FactSet. To put that performance in perspective, the 20-year average annual return was 9.8% and the 30-year average return was 10.7%.
How concentrated is the S&P 500U.S. stock market relative to historical levels?
"Where we stand now is among the most concentrated periods in modern U.S. history," according to a report about stock-market concentration designed for institutional investors authored by Benjamin R. Nastou, the co-chief investment officer for quantitative solutions at MFS Investment Management; Derek W. Beane, a portfolio manager for the firm's target-date funds; and Jonathan Perlman, a quantitative senior research associate at the firm.
MFS is based in Boston and has about $628 billion in assets under management, in mutual funds and institutional accounts.
The MFS report featured an analysis of the entire U.S. stock market. The researchers looked at five periods of market concentration over the last century, with peaks in 1932, 1957, 1973 and 2000, followed by the current cycle. They measured concentration troughs to peaks for the 1957, 1973 and 2000 cycles, for an average period of 10.3 years. (This data wasn't available for the 1932 concentration peak.) Then following the four peaks, the average period of increasing diversification was 10.7 years.
During an interview with MarketWatch, Beane said he and his co-authors couldn't predict when the current concentration cycle might end, and that the level of concentration can crest at peaks or troughs for stock prices.
"Markets favoriting concentration or diversification last 10 years or so on average. Now we are close to 18 years," in the current cycle of increasing concentration, he said.
"What we have seen historically is markets reach some sort of tipping point," after which the level of concentration is reduced, he said.
And that is when stock-market allocation strategies that haven't performed so well during periods of increasing concentration can come to the fore. Among the strategies that fare better as concentration is reduced are equal-weighting and small-cap value, Beane said.
The MFS team's analysis of the U.S. stock market's performance during 10-year periods following the four concentration peaks showed that an equal-weighted index of all U.S. stocks would have risen 8% more on an average annualized basis than a cap-weighted index.
An equal-weighted approach
Considering how successful the cap-weighted approach for an S&P 500 index fund has been, you might not want to give up on it. But you can lower your overall portfolio risk by allocating a portion to an equal-weighted fund and possibly enhance returns over the long haul.
The Invesco Equal-Weight S&P 500 Index RSP has $61.9 billion in assets under management. Nick Kalivas, who heads Invesco's factor strategy for the firm's exchange-traded funds, told MarketWatch last week that "the concentration risk issue is really present with a lot of investors," based on the flow of money into and out of the firm's funds this year.
He said that RSP had seen $6 billion in net inflow of investors' cash so far in 2024.
RSP holds all 500 stocks in the S&P 500 and rebalances them quarterly to equal weighting. The fund was established in 2003. As you might expect, the cap-weighted SPY has performed better over the past 10 years.
Here are three charts showing total returns for the two ETFs, with dividends reinvested and net of annual expenses, which are 0.20% of average assets under management for RPS and 0.095% for SPY.
First, 10 years through August:
And here is how the ETFs performed for the previous 10-year period through August 2014:
Finally, here is how the two performed for the full 20-year period, through Friday:
For 20 years, the cap-weighted approach has outperformed the equal-weighted approach, but a lot of that reflects the extraordinary top-weighted action for SPY over the past two years.
The 20-year chart shows a smoother ride for the equal-weighted approach. And for 10 years through August 2014, the equal-weighted RSP performed much better than SPY did.
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One more data point might be of interest: The S&P 500 trades at a weighted forward price-to-earnings ratio of 21.4, based on Friday's closing prices and consensus 12-month earnings-per-share estimates among analysts polled by FactSet. This compares with an average rolling forward P/E of 18 over the past 10 years.
Meanwhile, RSP trades at a forward P/E of 16.4, compared with a 10-year average forward P/E of 16.4.
Beane also mentioned small-cap value as a strategy that can perform better when the stock market's concentration is reduced. Many funds are following such a strategy. One example is the MFS Blended Research Small Cap Equity Fund BRSJX. Another is the Invesco S&P SmallCap Value with Momentum ETF XSVM, which was profiled here.
Again, there is no way to predict when the current period of increasing stock-market concentration will reverse, but you should at least be aware that this element of risk is increasing in an S&P 500 index fund.
"Having diversification within your portfolio is more important than the timing of the diversification," Beane said.
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-Philip van Doorn
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September 03, 2024 11:37 ET (15:37 GMT)
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