Copper Price On A More Sustainable Path

seekingalpha09-03

The copper market has stabilized after a speculative rally and subsequent correction, with financial excesses cleaned up and fundamentals now driving prices.Positive copper premiums indicate improved ...

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href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718605-copper-price-on-more-sustainable-path><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The copper market has stabilized after a speculative rally and subsequent correction, with financial excesses cleaned up and fundamentals now driving prices.Positive copper premiums indicate improved ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718605-copper-price-on-more-sustainable-path\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4566","symbol_name":"资本集团","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718605-copper-price-on-more-sustainable-path","article_id":"2464820412","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/182513787/image_182513787.jpg"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2464820412","pubTimestamp":1725354393,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"The copper market has stabilized after a speculative rally and subsequent correction, with financial excesses cleaned up and fundamentals now driving prices.Positive copper premiums indicate improved ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4566":"资本集团","FCX":"麦克莫兰铜金","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason 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and fundamentals now driving prices.Positive copper premiums indicate improved import profits, especially in China, suggesting a bottoming out of prices around $4/lb.Global copper inventories are stabilizing, with a promising demand recovery signaled by recent stock drawdowns and increased physical load-out at LME warehouses.Long-term copper supply faces challenges due to underinvestment in exploration and development, making sustained prices above $4/lb critical for future production feasibility.   tunart/iStock via Getty Images The parabolic copper rally started in the middle of March amid news about Chinese smelters probably cutting back production due to copper concentrate scarcity. A round of hyperbolic public commentary statements started a feedback loop that kept the fire burning until the end of May. Then, after the short-squeeze boom, the rational bust followed suit, and now we are wondering what will come next. Financial excesses have been cleaned up Funds have slashed their long positions after pushing up their long positions to a six-year-high.   CME Commitment of Traders According to the COT report of August 27, fund managers’ long positions are still net long but roughly at the same level at the beginning of the year, 64,976 contracts vs. 59,378, up 9.43%, a far cry from 133,449 on May 21. At that point, 13.7% of fund managers’ long positions were not counterparted by producers holding short contracts to hedge output, so almost 14% were held by speculators; by contrast, now there are even more short contracts held by producers than managed money long contracts. Therefore, speculative bets have been erased, with futures contract volumes returning to the mean and a market more driven by fundamentals.   CME Commitment of Traders In that respect, though producers’ short contracts outweigh managed money long ones, their positioning is the least bearish after bottoming in May, when they were locking in skyrocket prices above $5/lb. Clearly, they don't believe prices around the $4-$4.10 justify the previously high hedging levels. This signals that the price should be bottoming out at these levels.   CME Commitment of Traders Copper premiums turned positive The Yangshan copper premium, the fee paid on top of the benchmark LME copper price for refined copper to be custom cleared and imported into China through the Yangshan bonded area in Shanghai, has spiked to $63 a ton for the week ending August 9, from being just at the 0 level in the outset of July, and almost doubled in just a week from being at just $24 at the end of July. Now, it is sitting between $46 and $60 at a four-year trading range support level.   Bloomberg This premium indicates improved import profits, incentivizing import activity to China. As copper prices went parabolic since the middle of March, copper premiums dropped to the negative territory for the first time since 2013. Chinese industrials were de-stocking their warehouses instead of investing in new copper inventory, awaiting better prices. This fact was evident by the relentless increase in inventories in the ShFE exchange, and the usual seasonal unwind of stocks around the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-March didn't take effect this year. Now that the positive premiums have returned to China, I expect the buildup in ShFE inventories to continue decreasing by more than the warehouse arbitrage suggested between Chinese LME and ShFE warehouses. In other parts of the world, copper demand seems supported in recovering from some weakness. In Europe, copper premium delivered to Germany has been on a downtrend for the year, signaling anemic demand but exhibiting a slowing second derivative and achieving a 0% biweekly change at the end of July. Also, the Rotterdam premium, which usually serves as a market through which copper is imported into Europe, shows a positive change year-to-date, pointing to at least a demand stabilization in the continent. In the US, the Midwest US premium has been recovering since May and is climbing steeply into positive territory. Wrapping up the signals suggested by global copper premiums, demand for copper in the US appears well-supported, Europe mainly flat, and China regaining its import appetite to restock after three months of copper rally that incentivized Chinese industrials to put purchase orders on hold. China is very tactical in its trading, stepping aside when copper climbed too fast too soon, and it will also be very supportive of the price whenever it drops to support levels at $4/lb. This is evident by the inverted relationship between the import premiums and copper prices.   Bloomberg The information reflected in import premiums encourages me to think of this slump as having bottomed out by August 7, amid a mix of financial excesses being cleaned up aided by the summertime low season, and now with buyers returning to the market supporting price. Global inventories begin to stabilize Copper inventories often rise during the summer. Therefore, a combination of factors is behind the recent build-up. After a big buildup in global inventories during the first week of August, in the latest two weeks, we saw a modest stock drawdown for the first time since May, which also overlapped with a jump in metal awaiting physical load-out at the LME warehouses, almost 11% of total inventories in the week ended August, 23. A promising signal of demand recovery, still far from the 20% ratio at the beginning of March, but a significant jump from year-to-date lows at just 1.40% in the week ended June 21.   SHFE, LME, COMEX exchanges   LME Exchange This also fits the reduction in the ratio of warrant stocks vs. deliverable stocks both in the ShFe exchange (which peaked on June 14 at 82.14% of total inventory, now at 56.94%) and CME (peaking on July 5 at 93.52% of total stock, now at 56.4%). Both ratios probably signal less financial demand and more fundamental demand, as only warranted stocks are eligible for delivery against futures contracts.   Chinese-brand stocks are held at high levels in the LME While LME inventories have more than doubled since the beginning of April, CME stocks haven't grown that much because there are not so many options for the shorts to deliver metal, as Chinese brand copper is not allowed for CME delivery, and China is the world leader producer of refined copper. The share of copper inventories of Chinese origin in LME warehouses was 45% at the end of June, up from 0.25% at the beginning of the year. The buildup has sharply spiked since April, matching the rally in copper prices, and the explanation could be that demand in China was holding back, waiting for better prices to replenish their inventories. In June, I expected some stabilization as the copper price entered a correction phase and Chinese industrials returned to the market as a buying force; that didn't happen either in July, with LME-Chinese copper share climbing to 53.14%. So, there must be another explanation, and that could be, of course, the warehouse arbitrage. Warehouse arbitrage impacting inventory movements With a huge amount of visible copper inventories, warehouse arbitrage may be more attractive than physical arbitrage. Big players have been reported to move metals to LME warehouses for profitable financial deals in the first half of 2024, where LME-approved warehouses share storage fees with commodity traders that deliver metals to them. This can result in almost half of the storage costs being shared with trading companies; in addition, Singapore warehouse operators have agreed to offer financial incentives like specific dollar amounts per ton to attract metal to their facilities. I think some of these movements are causing earthquakes under the surface. Although the current narrative is led by a softening final demand for copper in China, curiously, where inventories are piling up, they are not far away from China. Looking at LME stocks, the total share of copper stored in LME facilities located in Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia, and Singapore swelled to 85% in mid-August, up from just 30% at the beginning of April, with almost all of the stocks located in Taiwan and South Korea, from being nearly empty in April.   LME Exchange We cannot rule out some warehouse incentives attracting traders to Taiwan. Also, there is some anticipation that Chinese demand could rise in the second half of the year because some things don't add up: the narrative of the copper crashing because China is faltering, but almost all copper stocks are near China. Either:  There is an expectation of China's demand recovery in the near term or Warehouse arbitrage is attracting metal to the region. If the latter is true, it could cause some disruptions in the future as a significant portion of inventories are not located near where it will be needed, which may cause copper import premiums to increase in other countries.  Chinese demand recovery case Expectations for a China recovery also seem plausible; Chinese record exports in May ignited fears of a slump in demand. However, this was overlaid with very solid import data, weak on copper concentrates imports but strong on copper scrap imports. It was followed by June and July concentrate imports, exhibiting year-over-year growth. Sure, exports are also at a record level. Still, it seems copper is not far from the country, suggesting some tactical moves by market participants rather than a structural pessimism about demand growth. It is also worth remembering that Chinese smelters’ overcapacity justifies lower concentrate imports, as spot TC/RC are very low. However, satellite data from Earth-i revealed smelters’ inactive capacity crashed from a peak of 26% at the end of May to less than 10% in the first week of August. Last year, concentrate imports peaked in August, so a bet on the usual autumn rebound in industrial activity seems underway.   Earth-i It is relevant to recognize China's role in the copper market. Sure, it is the biggest consumer, representing 50% of global demand. Still, it also controls about the same share of the smelting and refining capacity, adding 97% of global capacity in the last five years and 80% in fabrication capacity, two-thirds of which makes wire rods, giving China 50% of the global market share. Going forward, you could only expect Chinese copper exports in semi-fabricated and finished goods to increase. That is not indicative of a weak domestic demand but a result of its dominant position in downstream processing. They still need to import massive amounts of raw materials (concentrate and scrap) to maintain that status, as China’s domestic supply accounts for just 8% of global mine production. China is experiencing an uneven recovery among its end-use sectors. The slowdown is more acute in the steel sector, which depends more on real estate and infrastructure spending; there, Chinese demand probably won't ever recover to previous consumption rates. For copper, we have traditional uses and energy transition sectors. In July, China’s industrial profit showed a +4.1 increase YoY, higher than June, two consecutive months of acceleration, with high-tech manufacturing growing by 12.8% YoY, contributing to 60% of total industrial profit growth. These are copper-sensitive industries: lithium-ion battery production increased by 45.6%, semiconductor device manufacturing by +16%, smart consumer devices by +9.2%, and the equipment manufacturing sector (33% of total industry profits) grew by 6.1%, which included railways, shipbuilding, aerospace, and electronics. So the conclusion is that while domestic demand may continue to be weak, led by the property sector slump, other industry sectors, more driven by foreign demand, are still growing at a healthy clip.   Bloomberg Also, China’s industrial production declined from the beginning of the year highs, but it continues to grow above 5% YoY. The divergence between iron ore (steel) and copper is also evident in its output growth. For July, while the smelting and pressing of ferrous metals declined -1.5% YoY, the smelting of non-ferrous metals increased by +9.4% YoY.   National Bureau of Statistics - China  Global Production: African supply rising strongly, offsetting Americas’ decline Americas’ declining supply The largest copper producer country, Chile, representing about 23% of global copper production, has not increased its output, producing 400 to 500 thousand metric tonnes of copper per month for two decades. Chile’s copper output has been dented by a long-running drought in the country’s arid north, and it is eager to increase production: BHP has been reported to reopen Cerro Colorado by the decade's end. Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) and the state-owned company Codelco conducted a joint venture agreement. Codelco registered an 8.4% drop in production in the first half of the year, and all efforts are directed towards reaching 1.7 million tons of annual production by 2030, roughly the same production figures reached in 2019. However, future copper demand will probably be much higher, and little help will come from the world's largest copper miner to increase supply.   Codelco Annual Production (Investors presentation) This is the tone with the largest miners: lower ore grades, aging mines, increased depth and complexity of the orebodies, struggle to grow production, high costs to develop brownfield projects in existing assets, M&A at significant premiums, and lower appetite for financing greenfield exploration projects. Peru, the second-largest producer, is forecasted to have a low production growth rate until 2028, with just a 2.8% CAGR and currently a 0.6% advance in 2024. In fact, its place as the second-largest producer has recently been overtaken by DRC, which experienced an impressive growth in copper output of 14% CAGR from 2017 to 2022. In the short term, we also have uncertainty about the Cobre Panama story as the new administration of the country has proposed the possibility of a temporary mine reopening to cover the cost of a permanent closing, which would increase the current surplus in the market. Among the majors, BHP is scrambling to acquire copper assets: the Anglo American plc (OTCQX:AAUKF) takeover was rejected, and the joint venture to acquire Filo Corp has much smaller projects (Filo del Sol mine has an expected life of 13 years with an estimated annual output of 66K tonnes of copper). For its part, Rio Tinto's target is to increase production at 3% CAGR from 2024 to 2028; however, 2024 is on a path to fall short at 2% growth. However, BHP is trying hard to bet big on copper: 47% of 2025 BHP’s projected CAPEX would be dedicated to the copper segment, that is, $4.7 billion, almost doubling the expected investment in its traditional iron ore operations, which is $2.5 billion. According to BHP's last results, the output at the biggest copper mine, Escondida, along with the other Chilean assets, is expected to decline by 2027-2030. Investing in a new concentrator and leaching alternative will only maintain production until 2040, around the current four-year average.   BHP Q2 Earnings presentation These difficulties in growing production organically were evident by the mentioned BHP’s intent to make a massive purchase of Anglo American plc, which was a clear signal that they could not grow as they wanted, pivoting away from iron ore expected protracted weakness. The conclusion is that copper miners acquiring other companies do nothing to alleviate the potential supply shortage in the future. It only transfers one copper reserve from one balance sheet to another. Majors have underinvested in copper exploration and development for years, preferring M&A to the cost and risk of finding new copper deposits. African Supply Issues Besides DRC's explosive output growth, Zambia, the second-largest producer on the African continent, has proposed a new minerals regulation law allowing the government to obtain property rights in exploration areas before licenses are granted to investors if minerals are discovered. The prospect of this \"forced ownership\" could deter foreign investments in the country, as risk perception would be intensified. In addition, the Bill introduces discretionary decision-making powers to individual regulators, introducing corruption risks. According to the widely used Fraser Institute's Annual Survey, Zambia is already among the ten least attractive jurisdictions for mining investment. According to the Zambia Chamber of Mines, more than half of the targeted increase to 3 million copper tonnes of annual output by 2031 depends upon greenfield projects, so this regulation could considerably impact the expected global supply. After the Cobre Panama disruption suffered by First Quantum Minerals (FM:CA), the worst nightmare would be a bad result with its major expansion in Zambia for a total investment of $1.25 billion in its S3 project expected to be completed by mid-2025. I would put a high uncertainty premium on Zambia's 2031 targets. Production hit a 14-year low of 698,566 tons in 2023, and the plans to reach 1 million tons of copper production assume a 40% growth from last year's output and, from there, triple production in three years to reach the 3 million mark. It may be an unrealistic goal when the country keeps having issues with grid stability to power industrial operations due to its reliance on hydroelectric generation and its propensity to suffer drought crises. Weather-related issues have forced major miners in the country, such as First Quantum, to cover half of their power demand from imports. This relates to the cost of copper extraction and the minimum copper price to incentivize production; First Quantum projected an increase of $0.06/lb of copper in cash costs over 2024. First Half 2024 Copper Market Balance According to the ICSG Group's industry report, the current balance is estimated at a surplus of 488,000 tons compared to 115,000 tons a year ago, consistent with the principal exchanges' inventory data and copper price trend. The mine capacity utilization rate dropped to 78%, the lowest measure of the last five years, while the refinery capacity utilization rate increased to 85.1%, the highest in five years. Curiously, it suggests that the fear that sparked copper prices in March around the smelter's production cut has not hit the industry as badly as anticipated, consistent with satellite data in China. Refined copper consumption grew by 3.38%, at 13.366 million tons (the annual run rate of 26.732 million tons would represent just a 0.7% increase for 2024). Interestingly, China's demand grew by 3.5%, with net refined copper imports increasing by 9%, despite refined copper exports increasing by 74%. World demand, ex-China, grew by 3%, with weak demand in the US, EU, and Japan offset by growth in Asian countries. Mined and refined production Mined production for the first half is estimated at 11.137 million tons (the annual run-rate of 22.27 million tons would be below the 2023 production of 22.36 million tons). However, this first half is 3.11% higher than in 2023 from a low comparable base as Chile and Indonesia last year suffered some constraints, with solvent extraction-electrowinning growing much faster from a low base, at 7%, vs. 2% of concentrate production, reflective of the potential of leaching technologies in increasing production and saving costs in the value chain, especially if this could be extended to sulfide ores. With top producer Chile increasing output by 2.38% YoY and Peru dropping by 2%, the growth driver countries were DRC, growing by 8.5%, mainly due to the expansion of the Kamoa mine, and Indonesia increasing output by 33% (mind the low base effect in this case). Refined production increased by 6.2% in the first half due to increased capacity in DRC and China (together accounting for 53% of global refined production). Mined copper and consumption shortfall The shortfall between consumption and mined copper is covered by secondary refined production, which more than offsets the supply gap with 2.315 million tons of output, hence the balance surplus of 488 thousand tons. However, we are currently living by borrowing last year's proceeds. In 2023, less primary copper was refined (22.058 million tons) than mined (22.364 million tons), while in the first half of 2024, 11.137 million tons were mined, while 11.540 were refined. So, another way of thinking about the current surplus could be a timing mismatch of 403 thousand tons of primary metal being refined this year but mined last year. Secondary Production Analysis Closer attention to secondary copper production is needed because too much is said about supply being insufficient to meet copper needs in the future to meet energy-transition scenarios. Still, the reality is that for currently mined copper to cover consumption, mines would need to produce near full capacity. That didn't happen and won't happen, as 5% of annual supply disruptions are usual in the industry. Also, planned care, maintenance processes, and surging ore complexities as the digging operations are ongoing hinder operations. In reality, mines produce at an average of 80% of capacity, and primary production alone didn't meet consumption needs in any given year. That didn't cause copper prices to skyrocket because the gap is easily covered by secondary production from scrap metal, sometimes causing a comfortable surplus in the market like the one we are experiencing now. Therefore, a rapid improvement in efficiency and recycling technology would deflate copper prices if a greater proportion of scrap supply hit the market. Per the ICSG report, secondary refined copper production in the year's first half represented 16.7% of total refined production (versus 15.6% in 2020, 16.6% in 2021, 16.4% in 2022, 16.9% in 2023). In line with previous years. At least in the short term, I expect this ratio to be stable or even drop as new regulations in China may decrease the availability of blister and copper anode from scrap. Taking effect in August, the Fair Competition Review regulation in China forbids tax benefits on scrap processors without either approval from the State Council or permission by existing law. As many copper scrap processors rely on tax rebates from local governments, they may have to cut production, which could force smelters to look for primary feedstock instead of copper blisters derived from scrap metal. As 30% of China's refined copper production comes from scrap, the impact on available supply could be significant and support copper prices in the near term. From another perspective, the Recycling Input Rate (RIR) remains constant at around a third of supply (or consumption). The RIR is highly dependent on what was produced in the past and on the lifetime of products, the longer the lifetime, the lower the rate. Therefore, green policies like the new European Union rule to make cellphone batteries easier to replace by users to extend the life of the devices would lower the need for copper to build new electronic devices. Still, as the RIR would also be lower, it would simultaneously decrease the secondary supply of copper. Ultimately, the Overall Recycling Efficiency Rate, a measure of how much metal is extracted from the total scrap content, is still at very inefficient levels, at 56%. Also, secondary supply suffers from cyclicality, as a slowdown in industrial activities will produce less recyclable materials. Interestingly, in its latest commodity outlook, BHP anticipates scrap supply to outpace demand growth to meet 50% of total demand in 2050 (even higher than the 40% forecasted by Wood Mac) from the current 33%. Still, they are pivoting heavily towards copper. Why? Because they foresee headwinds in sourcing scrap supply due to regulatory constraints and logistic and economic challenges, particularly in developing countries. Along with that is the primary mine supply struggle to keep up. Copper price underpinnings The price setting dynamics must be underpinned by the cost curve structure, which will be determined by the cost of brownfield expansions in mature jurisdictions with low ore grades and greenfield expansions in a higher risk jurisdiction with potentially higher grades. At the very low end of the spectrum, copper price must be above the price estimate large miners use to determine the level of their reserves. If it is lower, then reserves rapidly would dry up, which in turn would cause a severe shortage and spike in prices. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) estimates its reserves based on a copper price of $3.5 per pound. BHP’s Escondida, Pampa Norte (now only Spence, as Cerro Colorado entered temporary care and maintenance in December 2023), and the Olympic Dam reserves price is $3.57/lb, and Copper South Australia at $3.40/lb. Rio Tinto uses a slightly more aggressive assumption at $3.62/lb for the Bingham Canyon and $3.80/lb for Oyu Tolgoi. Southern Copper Corp. (NYSE:SCCO), currently has the lowest price assumption between the majors at $3.30/lb. A sustained price decline below that range would require a downward revision to miners’ reserves price, leading to fewer reserves and deteriorating the global supply capacity. It would also cause damage to the depletion calculation as reserves are the denominator, and units of production are the numerator. If reserves decrease, it would cause a higher depletion charge and a reduction in the expected life of the mines. Not only is it critical that copper prices be sustained at above general reserves price to maintain the current expected level of reserves viable, but copper prices have to be significantly higher than cash costs. Large miners like Freeport already cut reserve levels during the last year at one of their biggest mines, Morenci, by 20%, based on increased cost assumptions and disruptions with operating mill rates. Just to provide some context of where the cash costs are: Codelco C1 cash costs have risen from $1.65/lb at the end of 2022 to $2.03/lb, though its costs are highly dependent on the dollar strength, which helped them to reduce cost from last year's $2.13/lb. With the current weakness in the US dollar, we can count on rising cash costs for the third quarter. BHP’s Escondida Cash Cost estimate for the medium term is estimated at $1.50-$1.80/lb; in Pampa Norte, at $2.05-$2.35/lb, and in Copper South Australia at $1.30-$1.80/lb. These costs are difficult to lower, as large mines suffer from declining ore grades, and according to E&MJ Engineering, copper grades of around 0.5% sharply increase the energy intensity of operations; all legacy mines have head grades even below that metric. We are also near the minimum price level to incentivize expansion projects: Taking the example of a major miner, FCX’s Bagdad, and El Abra expansions have an incentive price of at least $3.50/lb. BHP's new concentrator project to offset Escondida’s declining yield and a potential project to increase production in Copper South Australia assumes a copper price of $4.50/lb. Looking at other medium projects in junior miners: The pre-feasibility study of Los Andes Copper’s Vizcachitas project in central Chile, expected to add 168k tons per year, has a copper price assumption of $3.68/lb to reach a positive NPV of 8% for an expected mine life of 26 years commencing operations in 2030, and $3.5/lb for determining mineral reserves. Final Thoughts Once financial excesses in the futures market have been cleaned up, copper premiums have turned positive, and global inventories have begun to stabilize, the path has been paved for a more sustained copper price rally. A copper price below $4/lb is hardly justified, as it would be hitting critical levels used by miners to determine the economic feasibility of future production and current reserves levels. Any breach below that mark should cause quick spikes upwards because copper availability would dry up. Indeed, as investors, a bigger fear would probably be not a copper price crash, but copper rallies not long-lasting enough to incentivize primary production, given the lead times to develop mining projects, but enough to induce copper scrap hoarding in the short term, denting copper miners' profitability.  I believe the correction phase we have seen in copper prices since the end of May is a much more rational move to align prices with short-term fundamentals and will prompt a healthier path to stabilize prices at higher levels.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2464820412"}