Goldman sees Fed base case for 25bp rate cut in speeches by bank leaders Waller, Williams

seekingalpha09-07

Goldman Sachs said speeches by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams suggest the central bank’s leadership considers a rate cut sized at 25 basis points ...

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Waller and Williams on Friday each spoke of support for loosening policy rates. The Labor Department on Friday released a mixed August jobs report, with hiring slowing by more than expected and the unemployment rate slipping to 4.2%.  Goldman Sachs economists highlighted portions of Waller’s speech at an event hosted by the University of Notre Dame, and Williams’ speech at an event at the Council on Foreign Relations.  The economists noted that Waller said he expected that “cuts will be done carefully,” and that the Federal Open Market Committee can act “quickly and forcefully” if “subsequent data show a significant deterioration in the labor market.”  Goldman called Waller’s characterization of the economy as \"fairly positive.” It also pointed out the governor saying he would be an advocate of “front-loading cuts … if that is appropriate.” Williams in part said that “the stance of monetary policy can be moved to a more neutral setting over time,” with Goldman saying that suggested that the FOMC is likely to start cutting by 25 basis points.  “In our view, these comments are consistent with our forecast for a 25bp cut in September and indicate that the Fed leadership is open to 50bp cuts at subsequent meetings if the labor market continues to deteriorate,” Goldman Sachs Economist Jan Hatzius said.  In a separate note, Goldman left its view of an upcoming rate cut of 25bp unchanged after the release of the August jobs report Friday. “We don’t believe today’s report is sufficiently weak to push the FOMC to a 50bp cut at the September meeting,” Hatzius said.  In the markets, stocks (SP500) (COMP:IND) (DJI) dropped sharply Friday and Treasury yields (US2Y)(US10Y) fell.  Here are some exchange-traded funds tied to stock indexes investors can track: (SPY), (VOO), (IVV), (QQQ), (DIA), (DDM), (DOG), (QQQ), (QLD), and (SQQQ). ETFs tied to Treasuries and bonds that investors can track: (TLT), (TLH), (SHY), (SGOV), (LQD), (HYG), and (TIP). More on the economy and the markets","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"economic","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2465047629"}