Latest consumer inflation data cements Fed rate cut odds at 25 basis points

seekingalpha09-11

U.S. market participants on Wednesday strengthened their bets that the Federal Reserve would deliver only a quarter-point interest rate cut next week after the latest core consumer inflation data came...

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Government data showed the headline consumer price index (CPI) increasing 0.2% M/M in August, in-line with estimates. However, core CPI advanced 0.3% M/M, a tad higher than the consensus of +0.2%. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Fed's monetary policy committee next week rose to 85% after the CPI report, while that of a larger 50 basis point cut fell to 15%. The size of the Fed's anticipated rate cut had been up for debate following last week's mixed data on the labor market. Today's inflation indicator has now cemented that number at 25 basis points. \"We will see what happens with the (producer price index) but today’s CPI data will reduce the sense of urgency to go 50bps at the September meeting. That raises downside risk to the economy as the Fed drags out policy recalibration,\" Renaissance Macro Research said on X (formerly Twitter). \"At this stage, firmer consumer price inflation is a problem because it implies weaker real incomes (labor markets have clearly slowed) and a Fed that thinks it should slow walk the route back to neutral. Odds of recession are rising,\" RenMac added. Wall Street (SP500) on Thursday reacted in a largely negative manner to the CPI data, with the blue-chip Dow (DJI) last down more than 1%.  For investors looking to keep a pulse on the market, they may look towards exchange-traded funds that mirror the price movements of the benchmark averages, as well as the Treasury and fixed income funds. See some funds below: Market Tracking ETFs: (DIA), (DDM), (UDOW), (DOG), (DXD), (SDOW), (SPY), (VOO), (IVV), (RSP), (SSO), (UPRO), (SH), (SDS), (SPXU), (QQQ), (QQQM), (QLD), (TQQQ), (QID), and (SQQQ). Treasury ETFs: (TLT), (TLH), (IEF), (IEI), (SHY), (SGOV), (SCHO), and (BIL). Bond ETFs: (AGG), (BND), (VCIT), (MUB), (MBB), (JNK), (LQD), (HYG), and (TIP).","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"economic","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2466236255"}