Nvidia: The Price Is Too High

seekingalpha09-13

The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.We also believe that Nvidia is...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

WealthBuilder
09-13
WealthBuilder
If you see the QR , last 6 quarters , every quarter revenue increased by 4 Billion . Latest quarter Q2 is 30, if linear growth Q3 would be 34 and Q4 will be 38, this is excluding Blackwell that Jensen said demand is incredible , let's say 5 billion from Balck well , total Q4 will be 43. Continue into next fiscal year assuming demand remains strong which I think it will unless Jensen lied saying demand is incredible . i think 200 Billion revenue is achievable
WealthBuilder
09-13
WealthBuilder
Another rubbish article. When Blackwell is shipped out , you can write again . Next fiscalyear will be 200 Billion revenue and by then everyone will say should have bought last year
FearX
09-13
FearX
do you know how difficult it is to meet the numbers? Don't just throw your thesis without a sense on the financials lol..
cheeyang
09-13
cheeyang
Stop showing your limited knowledge
Icywinddale
09-13
Icywinddale
u know ZERO. Wrote something worth reading.

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2466270404?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2024-09-13 20:08","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","id":"2466270404","market":"sh","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Nvidia: The Price Is Too High","media":"seekingalpha","content":"<div>\n<p>The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.We also believe that Nvidia is...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720611-nvidia-the-price-is-too-high\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: The Price Is Too High</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: The Price Is Too High\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-13 20:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720611-nvidia-the-price-is-too-high><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.We also believe that Nvidia is...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720611-nvidia-the-price-is-too-high\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"IE00B5949003.HKD","symbol_name":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720611-nvidia-the-price-is-too-high","article_id":"2466270404","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2466270404","pubTimestamp":1726229310,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.We also believe that Nvidia is","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4588":"碎股","HK0000306701.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4579":"人工智能","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BZ199S13.USD":"BNY MELLON MOBILITY INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC","LU0048584097.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","IE00BYXW3230.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"AA\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","HK0000320264.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","HK0000320223.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","HK0000306685.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) INC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","BK4543":"AI"},"translate_title":"英伟达：价格太高","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1},"content_text":"The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.We also believe that Nvidia is overvalued, its upside is limited, and its stock is a SELL for us.Nvidia Disappoints The MarketTwo weeks ago, Nvidia released its Q2’25 earnings report, which showed that the revenues during the quarter were $30.04 billion, up 122.4% Y/Y and above the consensus by $1.29 billion. Despite such results, the company’s shares initially declined after the results were revealed.In part, the decline was caused by the expectations that Nvidia’s growth rate is about to normalize in the upcoming quarters, which means that the triple-digit growth rate is likely to be a thing of the past next year and beyond.If we look closely at the performance of Nvidia’s stock, we’ll see that it started to gain momentum in May 2023. That is when the Q1’24 report was released, which showed that while the company’s revenues declined Y/Y, major growth was expected in the following quarter thanks to the increased demand for its first generative AI GPUs from the H100 series that started to gain traction back then. As the generative AI revolution began to gather steam, the sales for the company’s AI GPUs were accelerating, which made Nvidia trade at excessive multiples that are mostly far beyond the sector’s median multiples.Ever since that report came in, the market’s perception was that the company needed to significantly beat the consensus estimates and meaningfully increase its guidance all the time for the shares to continue to trade at those high multiples. This has been the case in recent quarters so far. In Q3’24, Q4’24, and Q1’25, Nvidia beat the revenue consensus by a wide margin and announced a major guidance increase that was above the street expectations by a significant margin as well. Thanks to this, Nvidia’s shares rallied, and the company was able to become one of the most valuable businesses in the world in less than two years.However, after the recent Q2’25 report came in, there’s a sign that the pace of growth appears to be slowing down, and it’s one of the main reasons why the stock has been declining recently. CNN reported that investors were likely disappointed that Nvidia didn’t beat the estimates by a wider margin. Another Seeking Alpha contributor Jonathan Weber also noted that while the revenue estimates were beaten by around 4%, it’s not as great when compared to a year ago when revenue estimates were beaten by around 20%. If we look at Nvidia’s earnings history, we’ll see that the revenue beat in absolute numbers has been shrinking during each consecutive quarter starting from Q2’24. Professor Aswath Damodaran noted that there are clear signs of more slowing to come, as scaling will continue to push revenue growth down.Earnings History (Seeking Alpha)In addition to that, the guidance also was relatively weak and contributed to the decline in share price as well. In Q3, Nvidia expects to generate $32.5 billion in revenues, which is less than a billion dollars from the consensus of $31.71 billion. This was one of the biggest disappointments of the recent earnings report, as the market expected a better guidance. Professor Aswath Damodaran also explained what to make from this guidance and what’s to come next, and we fully share his point of view:As a company that has played the expectations game well, it should come as no surprise that Nvidia provided guidance for future quarters in its second quarter report, and here too, there were reminders that comparisons would get more challenging in future quarters, as they predicted that revenue growth rates would come back to earth, and that margins would, at best, level off or perhaps even decline.Additional Issues To ConsiderWhile the guidance has been rather disappointing, there’s also a possibility that it would be more challenging for Nvidia to meet it, and especially exceed it, as it faces some additional challenges right now. Last month, news came in that Nvidia’s upcoming Blackwell GPUs will be delayed, which resulted in a short-term selloff of the company’s shares. Nvidia in the recent conference call hinted that the potential delay was due to the technical change to improve the production yields of Blackwell and the production ramp-up is expected only in Q4. As such, there’s a possibility that the overall performance in Q3 could also disappoint investors when the next earnings report comes out in November.There’s also a risk that the guidance in the next earnings report could also disappoint investors, since the company faces some external risks that are outside of its control. In the Q1 earnings call, the management admitted that their data center revenue in China is down significantly due to the American chip export restrictions that were implemented last year. In the recent Q2 earnings call, they repeated that their current sales in China are below the previous levels. Since the China-USA relations are not expected to significantly improve anytime soon and Beijing has recently retaliated by imposing its export restrictions as well, the macro risks will remain and will likely continue to undermine Nvidia’s efforts to grow revenues across the globe.As a result of all of that, we believe that Nvidia is not a good investment right now and its shares have a decent chance of continuing to depreciate or trade sideways in the upcoming months.The Intrinsic Value of NvidiaRight now, we believe that Nvidia’s stock is also overvalued, especially since it trades at a forward P/E of 38x, while the sector’s median P/E is only 23x. Seeking Alpha’s Quant system also gives Nvidia a rating of D- for valuation. To figure out Nvidia’s intrinsic value and how big is its downside, we created our valuation model.To create a model, we added some initial data that can be seen on the left side of the table below. The tax rate in our model is 21%. This is the current corporate tax rate in the United States. While Nvidia’s effective tax rate was lower in the last year, our model covers a period of the next five years where the tax rate might increase. This is why it makes sense to assume a higher rate in the model. We made this model at a time when Nvidia was trading at $116.91 per share, and the long-term debt and the cash reserves data was added from the latest earnings report. The perpetual growth rate is 3%, which is close to the historical inflation and GDP rate.The discount rate in our model is 10.28%. The calculation for the discount rate is presented in the middle and right columns of the table, which can be seen below. First, we calculated the cost of debt and the after-tax cost of debt by using Nvidia’s TTM financial data. Then we calculated the cost of equity by using the risk-free rate of 3.86%, the beta of 1.68, and the inflation-adjusted market-return rate of 7.70%. In the end, we weighted Nvidia’s debt profile with its equity and figured out the discount rate.Nvidia’s Valuation (Bears of Wall Street)Once we filled in the entry data, we moved on to forecasting Nvidia’s growth in the upcoming years. The sales growth rate of 106% in the model is similar to the overall expectations for the current fiscal year. While the pace of growth is expected to subside going forward, the company still had strong growth at the beginning of this fiscal year, which is why in FY25 we’ll still see a triple-digit rate for sales. After that, a normalization of the growth rate is expected to happen and is reflected in our model. The EBIT as a percentage of sales is 62% in the model, which is close to the company’s historical performance in recent months. The tax rate is 21%, while the assumptions for the rest of the metrics closely match up with Nvidia’s historical performance.Our forecast helped us figure out the present value of Nvidia’s FCF in the upcoming years. We were then able to calculate the cumulative value of Nvidia’s FCF, apply the discount and perpetual growth rates, and figure out the terminal value and the present value of Nvidia’s terminal value. We then added Nvidia’s present value of the terminal value to the cumulative present value of its FCF to calculate the company’s enterprise value, which in our case is $1.94 trillion.Once the enterprise value was found, we then added Nvidia’s cash, subtracted the long-term debt from it, and arrived at an equity value of $1.97 trillion. After that, we divided Nvidia’s equity value by the number of its shares and arrived at the intrinsic value of $79.33 per share. This means that Nvidia’s stock is overvalued by around 32%. That’s why we believe that Nvidia is a SELL right now.Nvidia’s Valuation (Bears of Wall Street)It’s also important to note that at a market cap of nearly ~$2. 65 trillion, it’s hard to justify Nvidia’s current price, even after the recent decline caused by the latest earnings report. The whole generative AI market under one of the most optimistic assumptions is expected to be worth $1.3 trillion in 2032. In addition, the overall cloud market could be worth only as much as $1.8 trillion by 2029. Considering this, Nvidia’s current valuation today simply doesn’t make a lot of sense to us.Risks To Our Bearish ThesisDespite all the negativity, several risks could undermine our bearish thesis. The most obvious is the potential greater ramp-up of sales in the second half of the year, which would make the market excited again about Nvidia’s growth prospects. The potential delay of Blackwell shipments could be offset by the potential increase of the company’s Hopper series GPUs, especially since their supply and availability have improved. This could ensure that Nvidia performs well in Q3, and makes investors once again excited about investing into its shares if the beat is significant.We also know from the latest conference call that the demand for Blackwell is above supply. If no further delays are announced, then when the Q3 report comes out, Nvidia could also announce a far more optimistic guidance for Q4, which could help revive the stock’s momentum later this year.Final ThoughtsNvidia’s biggest issue is that its stock is priced for perfection, and any earnings report that includes an earnings beat without an impressive margin and relatively disappointing guidance would likely prevent a further appreciation of shares. This has been the case with the latest earnings report and the subsequent reaction of the market to it.The macro challenges are also not going anywhere away, and potential catalysts might not even materialize in the end if the company fails to grow its sales due to potential supply issues or delays. That is why Nvidia’s upside is not guaranteed and until the Q3 numbers come out, its shares could continue to experience weakness. This is why at the current price, Nvidia stock is a SELL for us.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"analysis","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":349012351471760,"gmtCreate":1726238261389,"gmtModify":1726238265689,"author":{"id":"4171803256903022","authorId":"4171803256903022","authorIdStr":"4171803256903022","name":"WealthBuilder","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4171803256903022"},"htmlText":"If you see the QR , last 6 quarters , every quarter revenue increased by 4 Billion . Latest quarter Q2 is 30, if linear growth Q3 would be 34 and Q4 will be 38, this is excluding Blackwell that Jensen said demand is incredible , let's say 5 billion from Balck well , total Q4 will be 43. Continue into next fiscal year assuming demand remains strong which I think it will unless Jensen lied&nbsp;saying demand is incredible . i think&nbsp;200 Billion revenue is achievable&nbsp;","listText":"If you see the QR , last 6 quarters , every quarter revenue increased by 4 Billion . Latest quarter Q2 is 30, if linear growth Q3 would be 34 and Q4 will be 38, this is excluding Blackwell that Jensen said demand is incredible , let's say 5 billion from Balck well , total Q4 will be 43. Continue into next fiscal year assuming demand remains strong which I think it will unless Jensen lied&nbsp;saying demand is incredible . i think&nbsp;200 Billion revenue is achievable&nbsp;","text":"If you see the QR , last 6 quarters , every quarter revenue increased by 4 Billion . Latest quarter Q2 is 30, if linear growth Q3 would be 34 and Q4 will be 38, this is excluding Blackwell that Jensen said demand is incredible , let's say 5 billion from Balck well , total Q4 will be 43. Continue into next fiscal year assuming demand remains strong which I think it will unless Jensen lied saying demand is incredible . i think 200 Billion revenue is achievable","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/349012351471760","repostId":2466270404,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2466270404","pubTimestamp":1726229310,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2466270404?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-13 20:08","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: The Price Is Too High","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2466270404","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.We also believe that Nvidia is","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.</p></li><li><p>Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.</p></li><li><p>We also believe that Nvidia is overvalued, its upside is limited, and its stock is a SELL for us.</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_3486510891\">Nvidia Disappoints The Market</h2><p>Two weeks ago, Nvidia released its Q2’25 earnings report, which showed that the revenues during the quarter were $30.04 billion, up 122.4% Y/Y and above the consensus by $1.29 billion. Despite such results, the company’s shares initially declined after the results were revealed.</p><p>In part, the decline was caused by the expectations that Nvidia’s growth rate is about to normalize in the upcoming quarters, which means that the triple-digit growth rate is likely to be a thing of the past next year and beyond.</p><p>If we look closely at the performance of Nvidia’s stock, we’ll see that it started to gain momentum in May 2023. That is when the Q1’24 report was released, which showed that while the company’s revenues declined Y/Y, major growth was expected in the following quarter thanks to the increased demand for its first generative AI GPUs from the H100 series that started to gain traction back then. As the generative AI revolution began to gather steam, the sales for the company’s AI GPUs were accelerating, which made Nvidia trade at excessive multiples that are mostly far beyond the sector’s median multiples.</p><p>Ever since that report came in, the market’s perception was that the company needed to significantly beat the consensus estimates and meaningfully increase its guidance all the time for the shares to continue to trade at those high multiples. This has been the case in recent quarters so far. In Q3’24, Q4’24, and Q1’25, Nvidia beat the revenue consensus by a wide margin and announced a major guidance increase that was above the street expectations by a significant margin as well. Thanks to this, Nvidia’s shares rallied, and the company was able to become one of the most valuable businesses in the world in less than two years.</p><p>However, after the recent Q2’25 report came in, there’s a sign that the pace of growth appears to be slowing down, and it’s one of the main reasons why the stock has been declining recently. CNN reported that investors were likely disappointed that Nvidia didn’t beat the estimates by a wider margin. Another Seeking Alpha contributor Jonathan Weber also noted that while the revenue estimates were beaten by around 4%, it’s not as great when compared to a year ago when revenue estimates were beaten by around 20%. If we look at Nvidia’s earnings history, we’ll see that the revenue beat in absolute numbers has been shrinking during each consecutive quarter starting from Q2’24. Professor Aswath Damodaran noted that <em>there are clear signs of more slowing to come, as scaling will continue to push revenue growth down.</em></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1e0ecde52260da152c697a1556ad66bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"137\"/></p><p>Earnings History (Seeking Alpha)</p><p>In addition to that, the guidance also was relatively weak and contributed to the decline in share price as well. In Q3, Nvidia expects to generate $32.5 billion in revenues, which is less than a billion dollars from the consensus of $31.71 billion. This was one of the biggest disappointments of the recent earnings report, as the market expected a better guidance. Professor Aswath Damodaran also explained what to make from this guidance and what’s to come next, and we fully share his point of view:</p><blockquote><p>As a company that has played the expectations game well, it should come as no surprise that Nvidia provided guidance for future quarters in its second quarter report, and here too, there were reminders that comparisons would get more challenging in future quarters, as they predicted that revenue growth rates would come back to earth, and that margins would, at best, level off or perhaps even decline.</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_3089099913\">Additional Issues To Consider</h2><p>While the guidance has been rather disappointing, there’s also a possibility that it would be more challenging for Nvidia to meet it, and especially exceed it, as it faces some additional challenges right now. Last month, news came in that Nvidia’s upcoming Blackwell GPUs will be delayed, which resulted in a short-term selloff of the company’s shares. Nvidia in the recent conference call hinted that the potential delay was due to the technical change to improve the production yields of Blackwell and the production ramp-up is expected only in Q4. As such, there’s a possibility that the overall performance in Q3 could also disappoint investors when the next earnings report comes out in November.</p><p>There’s also a risk that the guidance in the next earnings report could also disappoint investors, since the company faces some external risks that are outside of its control. In the Q1 earnings call, the management admitted that their data center revenue in China is down significantly due to the American chip export restrictions that were implemented last year. In the recent Q2 earnings call, they repeated that their current sales in China are below the previous levels. Since the China-USA relations are not expected to significantly improve anytime soon and Beijing has recently retaliated by imposing its export restrictions as well, the macro risks will remain and will likely continue to undermine Nvidia’s efforts to grow revenues across the globe.</p><p>As a result of all of that, we believe that Nvidia is not a good investment right now and its shares have a decent chance of continuing to depreciate or trade sideways in the upcoming months.</p><h2 id=\"id_2000837632\">The Intrinsic Value of Nvidia</h2><p>Right now, we believe that Nvidia’s stock is also overvalued, especially since it trades at a forward P/E of 38x, while the sector’s median P/E is only 23x. Seeking Alpha’s Quant system also gives Nvidia a rating of D- for valuation. To figure out Nvidia’s intrinsic value and how big is its downside, we created our valuation model.</p><p>To create a model, we added some initial data that can be seen on the left side of the table below. The tax rate in our model is 21%. This is the current corporate tax rate in the United States. While Nvidia’s effective tax rate was lower in the last year, our model covers a period of the next five years where the tax rate might increase. This is why it makes sense to assume a higher rate in the model. We made this model at a time when Nvidia was trading at $116.91 per share, and the long-term debt and the cash reserves data was added from the latest earnings report. The perpetual growth rate is 3%, which is close to the historical inflation and GDP rate.</p><p>The discount rate in our model is 10.28%. The calculation for the discount rate is presented in the middle and right columns of the table, which can be seen below. First, we calculated the cost of debt and the after-tax cost of debt by using Nvidia’s TTM financial data. Then we calculated the cost of equity by using the risk-free rate of 3.86%, the beta of 1.68, and the inflation-adjusted market-return rate of 7.70%. In the end, we weighted Nvidia’s debt profile with its equity and figured out the discount rate.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4525cc5cfd74d912557f2358499ce023\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"183\"/></p><p>Nvidia’s Valuation (Bears of Wall Street)</p><p>Once we filled in the entry data, we moved on to forecasting Nvidia’s growth in the upcoming years. The sales growth rate of 106% in the model is similar to the overall expectations for the current fiscal year. While the pace of growth is expected to subside going forward, the company still had strong growth at the beginning of this fiscal year, which is why in FY25 we’ll still see a triple-digit rate for sales. After that, a normalization of the growth rate is expected to happen and is reflected in our model. The EBIT as a percentage of sales is 62% in the model, which is close to the company’s historical performance in recent months. The tax rate is 21%, while the assumptions for the rest of the metrics closely match up with Nvidia’s historical performance.</p><p>Our forecast helped us figure out the present value of Nvidia’s FCF in the upcoming years. We were then able to calculate the cumulative value of Nvidia’s FCF, apply the discount and perpetual growth rates, and figure out the terminal value and the present value of Nvidia’s terminal value. We then added Nvidia’s present value of the terminal value to the cumulative present value of its FCF to calculate the company’s enterprise value, which in our case is $1.94 trillion.</p><p>Once the enterprise value was found, we then added Nvidia’s cash, subtracted the long-term debt from it, and arrived at an equity value of $1.97 trillion. After that, we divided Nvidia’s equity value by the number of its shares and arrived at the intrinsic value of $79.33 per share. This means that Nvidia’s stock is overvalued by around 32%. That’s why we believe that Nvidia is a SELL right now.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c7c5c3fa734baa66f95a87eecfb553f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"228\"/></p><p>Nvidia’s Valuation (Bears of Wall Street)</p><p>It’s also important to note that at a market cap of nearly ~$2. 65 trillion, it’s hard to justify Nvidia’s current price, even after the recent decline caused by the latest earnings report. The whole generative AI market under one of the most optimistic assumptions is expected to be worth $1.3 trillion in 2032. In addition, the overall cloud market could be worth only as much as $1.8 trillion by 2029. Considering this, Nvidia’s current valuation today simply doesn’t make a lot of sense to us.</p><h2 id=\"id_815598079\">Risks To Our Bearish Thesis</h2><p>Despite all the negativity, several risks could undermine our bearish thesis. The most obvious is the potential greater ramp-up of sales in the second half of the year, which would make the market excited again about Nvidia’s growth prospects. The potential delay of Blackwell shipments could be offset by the potential increase of the company’s Hopper series GPUs, especially since their supply and availability have improved. This could ensure that Nvidia performs well in Q3, and makes investors once again excited about investing into its shares if the beat is significant.</p><p>We also know from the latest conference call that the demand for Blackwell is above supply. If no further delays are announced, then when the Q3 report comes out, Nvidia could also announce a far more optimistic guidance for Q4, which could help revive the stock’s momentum later this year.</p><h2 id=\"id_584510153\">Final Thoughts</h2><p>Nvidia’s biggest issue is that its stock is priced for perfection, and any earnings report that includes an earnings beat without an impressive margin and relatively disappointing guidance would likely prevent a further appreciation of shares. This has been the case with the latest earnings report and the subsequent reaction of the market to it.</p><p>The macro challenges are also not going anywhere away, and potential catalysts might not even materialize in the end if the company fails to grow its sales due to potential supply issues or delays. That is why Nvidia’s upside is not guaranteed and until the Q3 numbers come out, its shares could continue to experience weakness. This is why at the current price, Nvidia stock is a SELL for us.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: The Price Is Too High</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: The Price Is Too High\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-13 20:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720611-nvidia-the-price-is-too-high><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.We also believe that Nvidia is...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720611-nvidia-the-price-is-too-high\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4588":"碎股","HK0000306701.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4579":"人工智能","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BZ199S13.USD":"BNY MELLON MOBILITY INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC","LU0048584097.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","IE00BYXW3230.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"AA\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","HK0000320264.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","HK0000320223.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","HK0000306685.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) INC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","BK4543":"AI"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720611-nvidia-the-price-is-too-high","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2466270404","content_text":"The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.We also believe that Nvidia is overvalued, its upside is limited, and its stock is a SELL for us.Nvidia Disappoints The MarketTwo weeks ago, Nvidia released its Q2’25 earnings report, which showed that the revenues during the quarter were $30.04 billion, up 122.4% Y/Y and above the consensus by $1.29 billion. Despite such results, the company’s shares initially declined after the results were revealed.In part, the decline was caused by the expectations that Nvidia’s growth rate is about to normalize in the upcoming quarters, which means that the triple-digit growth rate is likely to be a thing of the past next year and beyond.If we look closely at the performance of Nvidia’s stock, we’ll see that it started to gain momentum in May 2023. That is when the Q1’24 report was released, which showed that while the company’s revenues declined Y/Y, major growth was expected in the following quarter thanks to the increased demand for its first generative AI GPUs from the H100 series that started to gain traction back then. As the generative AI revolution began to gather steam, the sales for the company’s AI GPUs were accelerating, which made Nvidia trade at excessive multiples that are mostly far beyond the sector’s median multiples.Ever since that report came in, the market’s perception was that the company needed to significantly beat the consensus estimates and meaningfully increase its guidance all the time for the shares to continue to trade at those high multiples. This has been the case in recent quarters so far. In Q3’24, Q4’24, and Q1’25, Nvidia beat the revenue consensus by a wide margin and announced a major guidance increase that was above the street expectations by a significant margin as well. Thanks to this, Nvidia’s shares rallied, and the company was able to become one of the most valuable businesses in the world in less than two years.However, after the recent Q2’25 report came in, there’s a sign that the pace of growth appears to be slowing down, and it’s one of the main reasons why the stock has been declining recently. CNN reported that investors were likely disappointed that Nvidia didn’t beat the estimates by a wider margin. Another Seeking Alpha contributor Jonathan Weber also noted that while the revenue estimates were beaten by around 4%, it’s not as great when compared to a year ago when revenue estimates were beaten by around 20%. If we look at Nvidia’s earnings history, we’ll see that the revenue beat in absolute numbers has been shrinking during each consecutive quarter starting from Q2’24. Professor Aswath Damodaran noted that there are clear signs of more slowing to come, as scaling will continue to push revenue growth down.Earnings History (Seeking Alpha)In addition to that, the guidance also was relatively weak and contributed to the decline in share price as well. In Q3, Nvidia expects to generate $32.5 billion in revenues, which is less than a billion dollars from the consensus of $31.71 billion. This was one of the biggest disappointments of the recent earnings report, as the market expected a better guidance. Professor Aswath Damodaran also explained what to make from this guidance and what’s to come next, and we fully share his point of view:As a company that has played the expectations game well, it should come as no surprise that Nvidia provided guidance for future quarters in its second quarter report, and here too, there were reminders that comparisons would get more challenging in future quarters, as they predicted that revenue growth rates would come back to earth, and that margins would, at best, level off or perhaps even decline.Additional Issues To ConsiderWhile the guidance has been rather disappointing, there’s also a possibility that it would be more challenging for Nvidia to meet it, and especially exceed it, as it faces some additional challenges right now. Last month, news came in that Nvidia’s upcoming Blackwell GPUs will be delayed, which resulted in a short-term selloff of the company’s shares. Nvidia in the recent conference call hinted that the potential delay was due to the technical change to improve the production yields of Blackwell and the production ramp-up is expected only in Q4. As such, there’s a possibility that the overall performance in Q3 could also disappoint investors when the next earnings report comes out in November.There’s also a risk that the guidance in the next earnings report could also disappoint investors, since the company faces some external risks that are outside of its control. In the Q1 earnings call, the management admitted that their data center revenue in China is down significantly due to the American chip export restrictions that were implemented last year. In the recent Q2 earnings call, they repeated that their current sales in China are below the previous levels. Since the China-USA relations are not expected to significantly improve anytime soon and Beijing has recently retaliated by imposing its export restrictions as well, the macro risks will remain and will likely continue to undermine Nvidia’s efforts to grow revenues across the globe.As a result of all of that, we believe that Nvidia is not a good investment right now and its shares have a decent chance of continuing to depreciate or trade sideways in the upcoming months.The Intrinsic Value of NvidiaRight now, we believe that Nvidia’s stock is also overvalued, especially since it trades at a forward P/E of 38x, while the sector’s median P/E is only 23x. Seeking Alpha’s Quant system also gives Nvidia a rating of D- for valuation. To figure out Nvidia’s intrinsic value and how big is its downside, we created our valuation model.To create a model, we added some initial data that can be seen on the left side of the table below. The tax rate in our model is 21%. This is the current corporate tax rate in the United States. While Nvidia’s effective tax rate was lower in the last year, our model covers a period of the next five years where the tax rate might increase. This is why it makes sense to assume a higher rate in the model. We made this model at a time when Nvidia was trading at $116.91 per share, and the long-term debt and the cash reserves data was added from the latest earnings report. The perpetual growth rate is 3%, which is close to the historical inflation and GDP rate.The discount rate in our model is 10.28%. The calculation for the discount rate is presented in the middle and right columns of the table, which can be seen below. First, we calculated the cost of debt and the after-tax cost of debt by using Nvidia’s TTM financial data. Then we calculated the cost of equity by using the risk-free rate of 3.86%, the beta of 1.68, and the inflation-adjusted market-return rate of 7.70%. In the end, we weighted Nvidia’s debt profile with its equity and figured out the discount rate.Nvidia’s Valuation (Bears of Wall Street)Once we filled in the entry data, we moved on to forecasting Nvidia’s growth in the upcoming years. The sales growth rate of 106% in the model is similar to the overall expectations for the current fiscal year. While the pace of growth is expected to subside going forward, the company still had strong growth at the beginning of this fiscal year, which is why in FY25 we’ll still see a triple-digit rate for sales. After that, a normalization of the growth rate is expected to happen and is reflected in our model. The EBIT as a percentage of sales is 62% in the model, which is close to the company’s historical performance in recent months. The tax rate is 21%, while the assumptions for the rest of the metrics closely match up with Nvidia’s historical performance.Our forecast helped us figure out the present value of Nvidia’s FCF in the upcoming years. We were then able to calculate the cumulative value of Nvidia’s FCF, apply the discount and perpetual growth rates, and figure out the terminal value and the present value of Nvidia’s terminal value. We then added Nvidia’s present value of the terminal value to the cumulative present value of its FCF to calculate the company’s enterprise value, which in our case is $1.94 trillion.Once the enterprise value was found, we then added Nvidia’s cash, subtracted the long-term debt from it, and arrived at an equity value of $1.97 trillion. After that, we divided Nvidia’s equity value by the number of its shares and arrived at the intrinsic value of $79.33 per share. This means that Nvidia’s stock is overvalued by around 32%. That’s why we believe that Nvidia is a SELL right now.Nvidia’s Valuation (Bears of Wall Street)It’s also important to note that at a market cap of nearly ~$2. 65 trillion, it’s hard to justify Nvidia’s current price, even after the recent decline caused by the latest earnings report. The whole generative AI market under one of the most optimistic assumptions is expected to be worth $1.3 trillion in 2032. In addition, the overall cloud market could be worth only as much as $1.8 trillion by 2029. Considering this, Nvidia’s current valuation today simply doesn’t make a lot of sense to us.Risks To Our Bearish ThesisDespite all the negativity, several risks could undermine our bearish thesis. The most obvious is the potential greater ramp-up of sales in the second half of the year, which would make the market excited again about Nvidia’s growth prospects. The potential delay of Blackwell shipments could be offset by the potential increase of the company’s Hopper series GPUs, especially since their supply and availability have improved. This could ensure that Nvidia performs well in Q3, and makes investors once again excited about investing into its shares if the beat is significant.We also know from the latest conference call that the demand for Blackwell is above supply. If no further delays are announced, then when the Q3 report comes out, Nvidia could also announce a far more optimistic guidance for Q4, which could help revive the stock’s momentum later this year.Final ThoughtsNvidia’s biggest issue is that its stock is priced for perfection, and any earnings report that includes an earnings beat without an impressive margin and relatively disappointing guidance would likely prevent a further appreciation of shares. This has been the case with the latest earnings report and the subsequent reaction of the market to it.The macro challenges are also not going anywhere away, and potential catalysts might not even materialize in the end if the company fails to grow its sales due to potential supply issues or delays. That is why Nvidia’s upside is not guaranteed and until the Q3 numbers come out, its shares could continue to experience weakness. This is why at the current price, Nvidia stock is a SELL for us.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":349010400575528,"gmtCreate":1726237871326,"gmtModify":1726238188608,"author":{"id":"4171803256903022","authorId":"4171803256903022","authorIdStr":"4171803256903022","name":"WealthBuilder","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4171803256903022"},"htmlText":"Another rubbish article. When Blackwell is shipped out , you can write again . Next fiscalyear will be 200 Billion revenue and by then everyone will say should have bought last year","listText":"Another rubbish article. When Blackwell is shipped out , you can write again . Next fiscalyear will be 200 Billion revenue and by then everyone will say should have bought last year","text":"Another rubbish article. When Blackwell is shipped out , you can write again . Next fiscalyear will be 200 Billion revenue and by then everyone will say should have bought last year","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/349010400575528","repostId":2466270404,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2466270404","pubTimestamp":1726229310,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2466270404?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-13 20:08","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: The Price Is Too High","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2466270404","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.We also believe that Nvidia is","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.</p></li><li><p>Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.</p></li><li><p>We also believe that Nvidia is overvalued, its upside is limited, and its stock is a SELL for us.</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_3486510891\">Nvidia Disappoints The Market</h2><p>Two weeks ago, Nvidia released its Q2’25 earnings report, which showed that the revenues during the quarter were $30.04 billion, up 122.4% Y/Y and above the consensus by $1.29 billion. Despite such results, the company’s shares initially declined after the results were revealed.</p><p>In part, the decline was caused by the expectations that Nvidia’s growth rate is about to normalize in the upcoming quarters, which means that the triple-digit growth rate is likely to be a thing of the past next year and beyond.</p><p>If we look closely at the performance of Nvidia’s stock, we’ll see that it started to gain momentum in May 2023. That is when the Q1’24 report was released, which showed that while the company’s revenues declined Y/Y, major growth was expected in the following quarter thanks to the increased demand for its first generative AI GPUs from the H100 series that started to gain traction back then. As the generative AI revolution began to gather steam, the sales for the company’s AI GPUs were accelerating, which made Nvidia trade at excessive multiples that are mostly far beyond the sector’s median multiples.</p><p>Ever since that report came in, the market’s perception was that the company needed to significantly beat the consensus estimates and meaningfully increase its guidance all the time for the shares to continue to trade at those high multiples. This has been the case in recent quarters so far. In Q3’24, Q4’24, and Q1’25, Nvidia beat the revenue consensus by a wide margin and announced a major guidance increase that was above the street expectations by a significant margin as well. Thanks to this, Nvidia’s shares rallied, and the company was able to become one of the most valuable businesses in the world in less than two years.</p><p>However, after the recent Q2’25 report came in, there’s a sign that the pace of growth appears to be slowing down, and it’s one of the main reasons why the stock has been declining recently. CNN reported that investors were likely disappointed that Nvidia didn’t beat the estimates by a wider margin. Another Seeking Alpha contributor Jonathan Weber also noted that while the revenue estimates were beaten by around 4%, it’s not as great when compared to a year ago when revenue estimates were beaten by around 20%. If we look at Nvidia’s earnings history, we’ll see that the revenue beat in absolute numbers has been shrinking during each consecutive quarter starting from Q2’24. Professor Aswath Damodaran noted that <em>there are clear signs of more slowing to come, as scaling will continue to push revenue growth down.</em></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1e0ecde52260da152c697a1556ad66bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"137\"/></p><p>Earnings History (Seeking Alpha)</p><p>In addition to that, the guidance also was relatively weak and contributed to the decline in share price as well. In Q3, Nvidia expects to generate $32.5 billion in revenues, which is less than a billion dollars from the consensus of $31.71 billion. This was one of the biggest disappointments of the recent earnings report, as the market expected a better guidance. Professor Aswath Damodaran also explained what to make from this guidance and what’s to come next, and we fully share his point of view:</p><blockquote><p>As a company that has played the expectations game well, it should come as no surprise that Nvidia provided guidance for future quarters in its second quarter report, and here too, there were reminders that comparisons would get more challenging in future quarters, as they predicted that revenue growth rates would come back to earth, and that margins would, at best, level off or perhaps even decline.</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_3089099913\">Additional Issues To Consider</h2><p>While the guidance has been rather disappointing, there’s also a possibility that it would be more challenging for Nvidia to meet it, and especially exceed it, as it faces some additional challenges right now. Last month, news came in that Nvidia’s upcoming Blackwell GPUs will be delayed, which resulted in a short-term selloff of the company’s shares. Nvidia in the recent conference call hinted that the potential delay was due to the technical change to improve the production yields of Blackwell and the production ramp-up is expected only in Q4. As such, there’s a possibility that the overall performance in Q3 could also disappoint investors when the next earnings report comes out in November.</p><p>There’s also a risk that the guidance in the next earnings report could also disappoint investors, since the company faces some external risks that are outside of its control. In the Q1 earnings call, the management admitted that their data center revenue in China is down significantly due to the American chip export restrictions that were implemented last year. In the recent Q2 earnings call, they repeated that their current sales in China are below the previous levels. Since the China-USA relations are not expected to significantly improve anytime soon and Beijing has recently retaliated by imposing its export restrictions as well, the macro risks will remain and will likely continue to undermine Nvidia’s efforts to grow revenues across the globe.</p><p>As a result of all of that, we believe that Nvidia is not a good investment right now and its shares have a decent chance of continuing to depreciate or trade sideways in the upcoming months.</p><h2 id=\"id_2000837632\">The Intrinsic Value of Nvidia</h2><p>Right now, we believe that Nvidia’s stock is also overvalued, especially since it trades at a forward P/E of 38x, while the sector’s median P/E is only 23x. Seeking Alpha’s Quant system also gives Nvidia a rating of D- for valuation. To figure out Nvidia’s intrinsic value and how big is its downside, we created our valuation model.</p><p>To create a model, we added some initial data that can be seen on the left side of the table below. The tax rate in our model is 21%. This is the current corporate tax rate in the United States. While Nvidia’s effective tax rate was lower in the last year, our model covers a period of the next five years where the tax rate might increase. This is why it makes sense to assume a higher rate in the model. We made this model at a time when Nvidia was trading at $116.91 per share, and the long-term debt and the cash reserves data was added from the latest earnings report. The perpetual growth rate is 3%, which is close to the historical inflation and GDP rate.</p><p>The discount rate in our model is 10.28%. The calculation for the discount rate is presented in the middle and right columns of the table, which can be seen below. First, we calculated the cost of debt and the after-tax cost of debt by using Nvidia’s TTM financial data. Then we calculated the cost of equity by using the risk-free rate of 3.86%, the beta of 1.68, and the inflation-adjusted market-return rate of 7.70%. In the end, we weighted Nvidia’s debt profile with its equity and figured out the discount rate.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4525cc5cfd74d912557f2358499ce023\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"183\"/></p><p>Nvidia’s Valuation (Bears of Wall Street)</p><p>Once we filled in the entry data, we moved on to forecasting Nvidia’s growth in the upcoming years. The sales growth rate of 106% in the model is similar to the overall expectations for the current fiscal year. While the pace of growth is expected to subside going forward, the company still had strong growth at the beginning of this fiscal year, which is why in FY25 we’ll still see a triple-digit rate for sales. After that, a normalization of the growth rate is expected to happen and is reflected in our model. The EBIT as a percentage of sales is 62% in the model, which is close to the company’s historical performance in recent months. The tax rate is 21%, while the assumptions for the rest of the metrics closely match up with Nvidia’s historical performance.</p><p>Our forecast helped us figure out the present value of Nvidia’s FCF in the upcoming years. We were then able to calculate the cumulative value of Nvidia’s FCF, apply the discount and perpetual growth rates, and figure out the terminal value and the present value of Nvidia’s terminal value. We then added Nvidia’s present value of the terminal value to the cumulative present value of its FCF to calculate the company’s enterprise value, which in our case is $1.94 trillion.</p><p>Once the enterprise value was found, we then added Nvidia’s cash, subtracted the long-term debt from it, and arrived at an equity value of $1.97 trillion. After that, we divided Nvidia’s equity value by the number of its shares and arrived at the intrinsic value of $79.33 per share. This means that Nvidia’s stock is overvalued by around 32%. That’s why we believe that Nvidia is a SELL right now.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c7c5c3fa734baa66f95a87eecfb553f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"228\"/></p><p>Nvidia’s Valuation (Bears of Wall Street)</p><p>It’s also important to note that at a market cap of nearly ~$2. 65 trillion, it’s hard to justify Nvidia’s current price, even after the recent decline caused by the latest earnings report. The whole generative AI market under one of the most optimistic assumptions is expected to be worth $1.3 trillion in 2032. In addition, the overall cloud market could be worth only as much as $1.8 trillion by 2029. Considering this, Nvidia’s current valuation today simply doesn’t make a lot of sense to us.</p><h2 id=\"id_815598079\">Risks To Our Bearish Thesis</h2><p>Despite all the negativity, several risks could undermine our bearish thesis. The most obvious is the potential greater ramp-up of sales in the second half of the year, which would make the market excited again about Nvidia’s growth prospects. The potential delay of Blackwell shipments could be offset by the potential increase of the company’s Hopper series GPUs, especially since their supply and availability have improved. This could ensure that Nvidia performs well in Q3, and makes investors once again excited about investing into its shares if the beat is significant.</p><p>We also know from the latest conference call that the demand for Blackwell is above supply. If no further delays are announced, then when the Q3 report comes out, Nvidia could also announce a far more optimistic guidance for Q4, which could help revive the stock’s momentum later this year.</p><h2 id=\"id_584510153\">Final Thoughts</h2><p>Nvidia’s biggest issue is that its stock is priced for perfection, and any earnings report that includes an earnings beat without an impressive margin and relatively disappointing guidance would likely prevent a further appreciation of shares. This has been the case with the latest earnings report and the subsequent reaction of the market to it.</p><p>The macro challenges are also not going anywhere away, and potential catalysts might not even materialize in the end if the company fails to grow its sales due to potential supply issues or delays. That is why Nvidia’s upside is not guaranteed and until the Q3 numbers come out, its shares could continue to experience weakness. This is why at the current price, Nvidia stock is a SELL for us.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: The Price Is Too High</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: The Price Is Too High\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-13 20:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720611-nvidia-the-price-is-too-high><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.We also believe that Nvidia is...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720611-nvidia-the-price-is-too-high\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4588":"碎股","HK0000306701.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4579":"人工智能","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BZ199S13.USD":"BNY MELLON MOBILITY INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC","LU0048584097.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","IE00BYXW3230.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"AA\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","HK0000320264.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","HK0000320223.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","HK0000306685.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) INC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","BK4543":"AI"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720611-nvidia-the-price-is-too-high","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2466270404","content_text":"The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.We also believe that Nvidia is overvalued, its upside is limited, and its stock is a SELL for us.Nvidia Disappoints The MarketTwo weeks ago, Nvidia released its Q2’25 earnings report, which showed that the revenues during the quarter were $30.04 billion, up 122.4% Y/Y and above the consensus by $1.29 billion. Despite such results, the company’s shares initially declined after the results were revealed.In part, the decline was caused by the expectations that Nvidia’s growth rate is about to normalize in the upcoming quarters, which means that the triple-digit growth rate is likely to be a thing of the past next year and beyond.If we look closely at the performance of Nvidia’s stock, we’ll see that it started to gain momentum in May 2023. That is when the Q1’24 report was released, which showed that while the company’s revenues declined Y/Y, major growth was expected in the following quarter thanks to the increased demand for its first generative AI GPUs from the H100 series that started to gain traction back then. As the generative AI revolution began to gather steam, the sales for the company’s AI GPUs were accelerating, which made Nvidia trade at excessive multiples that are mostly far beyond the sector’s median multiples.Ever since that report came in, the market’s perception was that the company needed to significantly beat the consensus estimates and meaningfully increase its guidance all the time for the shares to continue to trade at those high multiples. This has been the case in recent quarters so far. In Q3’24, Q4’24, and Q1’25, Nvidia beat the revenue consensus by a wide margin and announced a major guidance increase that was above the street expectations by a significant margin as well. Thanks to this, Nvidia’s shares rallied, and the company was able to become one of the most valuable businesses in the world in less than two years.However, after the recent Q2’25 report came in, there’s a sign that the pace of growth appears to be slowing down, and it’s one of the main reasons why the stock has been declining recently. CNN reported that investors were likely disappointed that Nvidia didn’t beat the estimates by a wider margin. Another Seeking Alpha contributor Jonathan Weber also noted that while the revenue estimates were beaten by around 4%, it’s not as great when compared to a year ago when revenue estimates were beaten by around 20%. If we look at Nvidia’s earnings history, we’ll see that the revenue beat in absolute numbers has been shrinking during each consecutive quarter starting from Q2’24. Professor Aswath Damodaran noted that there are clear signs of more slowing to come, as scaling will continue to push revenue growth down.Earnings History (Seeking Alpha)In addition to that, the guidance also was relatively weak and contributed to the decline in share price as well. In Q3, Nvidia expects to generate $32.5 billion in revenues, which is less than a billion dollars from the consensus of $31.71 billion. This was one of the biggest disappointments of the recent earnings report, as the market expected a better guidance. Professor Aswath Damodaran also explained what to make from this guidance and what’s to come next, and we fully share his point of view:As a company that has played the expectations game well, it should come as no surprise that Nvidia provided guidance for future quarters in its second quarter report, and here too, there were reminders that comparisons would get more challenging in future quarters, as they predicted that revenue growth rates would come back to earth, and that margins would, at best, level off or perhaps even decline.Additional Issues To ConsiderWhile the guidance has been rather disappointing, there’s also a possibility that it would be more challenging for Nvidia to meet it, and especially exceed it, as it faces some additional challenges right now. Last month, news came in that Nvidia’s upcoming Blackwell GPUs will be delayed, which resulted in a short-term selloff of the company’s shares. Nvidia in the recent conference call hinted that the potential delay was due to the technical change to improve the production yields of Blackwell and the production ramp-up is expected only in Q4. As such, there’s a possibility that the overall performance in Q3 could also disappoint investors when the next earnings report comes out in November.There’s also a risk that the guidance in the next earnings report could also disappoint investors, since the company faces some external risks that are outside of its control. In the Q1 earnings call, the management admitted that their data center revenue in China is down significantly due to the American chip export restrictions that were implemented last year. In the recent Q2 earnings call, they repeated that their current sales in China are below the previous levels. Since the China-USA relations are not expected to significantly improve anytime soon and Beijing has recently retaliated by imposing its export restrictions as well, the macro risks will remain and will likely continue to undermine Nvidia’s efforts to grow revenues across the globe.As a result of all of that, we believe that Nvidia is not a good investment right now and its shares have a decent chance of continuing to depreciate or trade sideways in the upcoming months.The Intrinsic Value of NvidiaRight now, we believe that Nvidia’s stock is also overvalued, especially since it trades at a forward P/E of 38x, while the sector’s median P/E is only 23x. Seeking Alpha’s Quant system also gives Nvidia a rating of D- for valuation. To figure out Nvidia’s intrinsic value and how big is its downside, we created our valuation model.To create a model, we added some initial data that can be seen on the left side of the table below. The tax rate in our model is 21%. This is the current corporate tax rate in the United States. While Nvidia’s effective tax rate was lower in the last year, our model covers a period of the next five years where the tax rate might increase. This is why it makes sense to assume a higher rate in the model. We made this model at a time when Nvidia was trading at $116.91 per share, and the long-term debt and the cash reserves data was added from the latest earnings report. The perpetual growth rate is 3%, which is close to the historical inflation and GDP rate.The discount rate in our model is 10.28%. The calculation for the discount rate is presented in the middle and right columns of the table, which can be seen below. First, we calculated the cost of debt and the after-tax cost of debt by using Nvidia’s TTM financial data. Then we calculated the cost of equity by using the risk-free rate of 3.86%, the beta of 1.68, and the inflation-adjusted market-return rate of 7.70%. In the end, we weighted Nvidia’s debt profile with its equity and figured out the discount rate.Nvidia’s Valuation (Bears of Wall Street)Once we filled in the entry data, we moved on to forecasting Nvidia’s growth in the upcoming years. The sales growth rate of 106% in the model is similar to the overall expectations for the current fiscal year. While the pace of growth is expected to subside going forward, the company still had strong growth at the beginning of this fiscal year, which is why in FY25 we’ll still see a triple-digit rate for sales. After that, a normalization of the growth rate is expected to happen and is reflected in our model. The EBIT as a percentage of sales is 62% in the model, which is close to the company’s historical performance in recent months. The tax rate is 21%, while the assumptions for the rest of the metrics closely match up with Nvidia’s historical performance.Our forecast helped us figure out the present value of Nvidia’s FCF in the upcoming years. We were then able to calculate the cumulative value of Nvidia’s FCF, apply the discount and perpetual growth rates, and figure out the terminal value and the present value of Nvidia’s terminal value. We then added Nvidia’s present value of the terminal value to the cumulative present value of its FCF to calculate the company’s enterprise value, which in our case is $1.94 trillion.Once the enterprise value was found, we then added Nvidia’s cash, subtracted the long-term debt from it, and arrived at an equity value of $1.97 trillion. After that, we divided Nvidia’s equity value by the number of its shares and arrived at the intrinsic value of $79.33 per share. This means that Nvidia’s stock is overvalued by around 32%. That’s why we believe that Nvidia is a SELL right now.Nvidia’s Valuation (Bears of Wall Street)It’s also important to note that at a market cap of nearly ~$2. 65 trillion, it’s hard to justify Nvidia’s current price, even after the recent decline caused by the latest earnings report. The whole generative AI market under one of the most optimistic assumptions is expected to be worth $1.3 trillion in 2032. In addition, the overall cloud market could be worth only as much as $1.8 trillion by 2029. Considering this, Nvidia’s current valuation today simply doesn’t make a lot of sense to us.Risks To Our Bearish ThesisDespite all the negativity, several risks could undermine our bearish thesis. The most obvious is the potential greater ramp-up of sales in the second half of the year, which would make the market excited again about Nvidia’s growth prospects. The potential delay of Blackwell shipments could be offset by the potential increase of the company’s Hopper series GPUs, especially since their supply and availability have improved. This could ensure that Nvidia performs well in Q3, and makes investors once again excited about investing into its shares if the beat is significant.We also know from the latest conference call that the demand for Blackwell is above supply. If no further delays are announced, then when the Q3 report comes out, Nvidia could also announce a far more optimistic guidance for Q4, which could help revive the stock’s momentum later this year.Final ThoughtsNvidia’s biggest issue is that its stock is priced for perfection, and any earnings report that includes an earnings beat without an impressive margin and relatively disappointing guidance would likely prevent a further appreciation of shares. This has been the case with the latest earnings report and the subsequent reaction of the market to it.The macro challenges are also not going anywhere away, and potential catalysts might not even materialize in the end if the company fails to grow its sales due to potential supply issues or delays. That is why Nvidia’s upside is not guaranteed and until the Q3 numbers come out, its shares could continue to experience weakness. This is why at the current price, Nvidia stock is a SELL for us.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":348989827403976,"gmtCreate":1726232763487,"gmtModify":1726232767412,"author":{"id":"3585300524739374","authorId":"3585300524739374","authorIdStr":"3585300524739374","name":"FearX","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3585300524739374"},"htmlText":"do you know how difficult it is to meet the numbers? Don't just throw your thesis without a sense on the financials lol..&nbsp;","listText":"do you know how difficult it is to meet the numbers? Don't just throw your thesis without a sense on the financials lol..&nbsp;","text":"do you know how difficult it is to meet the numbers? Don't just throw your thesis without a sense on the financials lol..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348989827403976","repostId":2466270404,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2466270404","pubTimestamp":1726229310,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2466270404?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-13 20:08","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: The Price Is Too High","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2466270404","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.We also believe that Nvidia is","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.</p></li><li><p>Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.</p></li><li><p>We also believe that Nvidia is overvalued, its upside is limited, and its stock is a SELL for us.</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_3486510891\">Nvidia Disappoints The Market</h2><p>Two weeks ago, Nvidia released its Q2’25 earnings report, which showed that the revenues during the quarter were $30.04 billion, up 122.4% Y/Y and above the consensus by $1.29 billion. Despite such results, the company’s shares initially declined after the results were revealed.</p><p>In part, the decline was caused by the expectations that Nvidia’s growth rate is about to normalize in the upcoming quarters, which means that the triple-digit growth rate is likely to be a thing of the past next year and beyond.</p><p>If we look closely at the performance of Nvidia’s stock, we’ll see that it started to gain momentum in May 2023. That is when the Q1’24 report was released, which showed that while the company’s revenues declined Y/Y, major growth was expected in the following quarter thanks to the increased demand for its first generative AI GPUs from the H100 series that started to gain traction back then. As the generative AI revolution began to gather steam, the sales for the company’s AI GPUs were accelerating, which made Nvidia trade at excessive multiples that are mostly far beyond the sector’s median multiples.</p><p>Ever since that report came in, the market’s perception was that the company needed to significantly beat the consensus estimates and meaningfully increase its guidance all the time for the shares to continue to trade at those high multiples. This has been the case in recent quarters so far. In Q3’24, Q4’24, and Q1’25, Nvidia beat the revenue consensus by a wide margin and announced a major guidance increase that was above the street expectations by a significant margin as well. Thanks to this, Nvidia’s shares rallied, and the company was able to become one of the most valuable businesses in the world in less than two years.</p><p>However, after the recent Q2’25 report came in, there’s a sign that the pace of growth appears to be slowing down, and it’s one of the main reasons why the stock has been declining recently. CNN reported that investors were likely disappointed that Nvidia didn’t beat the estimates by a wider margin. Another Seeking Alpha contributor Jonathan Weber also noted that while the revenue estimates were beaten by around 4%, it’s not as great when compared to a year ago when revenue estimates were beaten by around 20%. If we look at Nvidia’s earnings history, we’ll see that the revenue beat in absolute numbers has been shrinking during each consecutive quarter starting from Q2’24. Professor Aswath Damodaran noted that <em>there are clear signs of more slowing to come, as scaling will continue to push revenue growth down.</em></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1e0ecde52260da152c697a1556ad66bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"137\"/></p><p>Earnings History (Seeking Alpha)</p><p>In addition to that, the guidance also was relatively weak and contributed to the decline in share price as well. In Q3, Nvidia expects to generate $32.5 billion in revenues, which is less than a billion dollars from the consensus of $31.71 billion. This was one of the biggest disappointments of the recent earnings report, as the market expected a better guidance. Professor Aswath Damodaran also explained what to make from this guidance and what’s to come next, and we fully share his point of view:</p><blockquote><p>As a company that has played the expectations game well, it should come as no surprise that Nvidia provided guidance for future quarters in its second quarter report, and here too, there were reminders that comparisons would get more challenging in future quarters, as they predicted that revenue growth rates would come back to earth, and that margins would, at best, level off or perhaps even decline.</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_3089099913\">Additional Issues To Consider</h2><p>While the guidance has been rather disappointing, there’s also a possibility that it would be more challenging for Nvidia to meet it, and especially exceed it, as it faces some additional challenges right now. Last month, news came in that Nvidia’s upcoming Blackwell GPUs will be delayed, which resulted in a short-term selloff of the company’s shares. Nvidia in the recent conference call hinted that the potential delay was due to the technical change to improve the production yields of Blackwell and the production ramp-up is expected only in Q4. As such, there’s a possibility that the overall performance in Q3 could also disappoint investors when the next earnings report comes out in November.</p><p>There’s also a risk that the guidance in the next earnings report could also disappoint investors, since the company faces some external risks that are outside of its control. In the Q1 earnings call, the management admitted that their data center revenue in China is down significantly due to the American chip export restrictions that were implemented last year. In the recent Q2 earnings call, they repeated that their current sales in China are below the previous levels. Since the China-USA relations are not expected to significantly improve anytime soon and Beijing has recently retaliated by imposing its export restrictions as well, the macro risks will remain and will likely continue to undermine Nvidia’s efforts to grow revenues across the globe.</p><p>As a result of all of that, we believe that Nvidia is not a good investment right now and its shares have a decent chance of continuing to depreciate or trade sideways in the upcoming months.</p><h2 id=\"id_2000837632\">The Intrinsic Value of Nvidia</h2><p>Right now, we believe that Nvidia’s stock is also overvalued, especially since it trades at a forward P/E of 38x, while the sector’s median P/E is only 23x. Seeking Alpha’s Quant system also gives Nvidia a rating of D- for valuation. To figure out Nvidia’s intrinsic value and how big is its downside, we created our valuation model.</p><p>To create a model, we added some initial data that can be seen on the left side of the table below. The tax rate in our model is 21%. This is the current corporate tax rate in the United States. While Nvidia’s effective tax rate was lower in the last year, our model covers a period of the next five years where the tax rate might increase. This is why it makes sense to assume a higher rate in the model. We made this model at a time when Nvidia was trading at $116.91 per share, and the long-term debt and the cash reserves data was added from the latest earnings report. The perpetual growth rate is 3%, which is close to the historical inflation and GDP rate.</p><p>The discount rate in our model is 10.28%. The calculation for the discount rate is presented in the middle and right columns of the table, which can be seen below. First, we calculated the cost of debt and the after-tax cost of debt by using Nvidia’s TTM financial data. Then we calculated the cost of equity by using the risk-free rate of 3.86%, the beta of 1.68, and the inflation-adjusted market-return rate of 7.70%. In the end, we weighted Nvidia’s debt profile with its equity and figured out the discount rate.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4525cc5cfd74d912557f2358499ce023\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"183\"/></p><p>Nvidia’s Valuation (Bears of Wall Street)</p><p>Once we filled in the entry data, we moved on to forecasting Nvidia’s growth in the upcoming years. The sales growth rate of 106% in the model is similar to the overall expectations for the current fiscal year. While the pace of growth is expected to subside going forward, the company still had strong growth at the beginning of this fiscal year, which is why in FY25 we’ll still see a triple-digit rate for sales. After that, a normalization of the growth rate is expected to happen and is reflected in our model. The EBIT as a percentage of sales is 62% in the model, which is close to the company’s historical performance in recent months. The tax rate is 21%, while the assumptions for the rest of the metrics closely match up with Nvidia’s historical performance.</p><p>Our forecast helped us figure out the present value of Nvidia’s FCF in the upcoming years. We were then able to calculate the cumulative value of Nvidia’s FCF, apply the discount and perpetual growth rates, and figure out the terminal value and the present value of Nvidia’s terminal value. We then added Nvidia’s present value of the terminal value to the cumulative present value of its FCF to calculate the company’s enterprise value, which in our case is $1.94 trillion.</p><p>Once the enterprise value was found, we then added Nvidia’s cash, subtracted the long-term debt from it, and arrived at an equity value of $1.97 trillion. After that, we divided Nvidia’s equity value by the number of its shares and arrived at the intrinsic value of $79.33 per share. This means that Nvidia’s stock is overvalued by around 32%. That’s why we believe that Nvidia is a SELL right now.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c7c5c3fa734baa66f95a87eecfb553f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"228\"/></p><p>Nvidia’s Valuation (Bears of Wall Street)</p><p>It’s also important to note that at a market cap of nearly ~$2. 65 trillion, it’s hard to justify Nvidia’s current price, even after the recent decline caused by the latest earnings report. The whole generative AI market under one of the most optimistic assumptions is expected to be worth $1.3 trillion in 2032. In addition, the overall cloud market could be worth only as much as $1.8 trillion by 2029. Considering this, Nvidia’s current valuation today simply doesn’t make a lot of sense to us.</p><h2 id=\"id_815598079\">Risks To Our Bearish Thesis</h2><p>Despite all the negativity, several risks could undermine our bearish thesis. The most obvious is the potential greater ramp-up of sales in the second half of the year, which would make the market excited again about Nvidia’s growth prospects. The potential delay of Blackwell shipments could be offset by the potential increase of the company’s Hopper series GPUs, especially since their supply and availability have improved. This could ensure that Nvidia performs well in Q3, and makes investors once again excited about investing into its shares if the beat is significant.</p><p>We also know from the latest conference call that the demand for Blackwell is above supply. If no further delays are announced, then when the Q3 report comes out, Nvidia could also announce a far more optimistic guidance for Q4, which could help revive the stock’s momentum later this year.</p><h2 id=\"id_584510153\">Final Thoughts</h2><p>Nvidia’s biggest issue is that its stock is priced for perfection, and any earnings report that includes an earnings beat without an impressive margin and relatively disappointing guidance would likely prevent a further appreciation of shares. This has been the case with the latest earnings report and the subsequent reaction of the market to it.</p><p>The macro challenges are also not going anywhere away, and potential catalysts might not even materialize in the end if the company fails to grow its sales due to potential supply issues or delays. That is why Nvidia’s upside is not guaranteed and until the Q3 numbers come out, its shares could continue to experience weakness. This is why at the current price, Nvidia stock is a SELL for us.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: The Price Is Too High</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: The Price Is Too High\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-13 20:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720611-nvidia-the-price-is-too-high><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.We also believe that Nvidia is...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720611-nvidia-the-price-is-too-high\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4588":"碎股","HK0000306701.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4579":"人工智能","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BZ199S13.USD":"BNY MELLON MOBILITY INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC","LU0048584097.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","IE00BYXW3230.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"AA\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","HK0000320264.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","HK0000320223.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","HK0000306685.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) INC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","BK4543":"AI"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720611-nvidia-the-price-is-too-high","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2466270404","content_text":"The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.We also believe that Nvidia is overvalued, its upside is limited, and its stock is a SELL for us.Nvidia Disappoints The MarketTwo weeks ago, Nvidia released its Q2’25 earnings report, which showed that the revenues during the quarter were $30.04 billion, up 122.4% Y/Y and above the consensus by $1.29 billion. Despite such results, the company’s shares initially declined after the results were revealed.In part, the decline was caused by the expectations that Nvidia’s growth rate is about to normalize in the upcoming quarters, which means that the triple-digit growth rate is likely to be a thing of the past next year and beyond.If we look closely at the performance of Nvidia’s stock, we’ll see that it started to gain momentum in May 2023. That is when the Q1’24 report was released, which showed that while the company’s revenues declined Y/Y, major growth was expected in the following quarter thanks to the increased demand for its first generative AI GPUs from the H100 series that started to gain traction back then. As the generative AI revolution began to gather steam, the sales for the company’s AI GPUs were accelerating, which made Nvidia trade at excessive multiples that are mostly far beyond the sector’s median multiples.Ever since that report came in, the market’s perception was that the company needed to significantly beat the consensus estimates and meaningfully increase its guidance all the time for the shares to continue to trade at those high multiples. This has been the case in recent quarters so far. In Q3’24, Q4’24, and Q1’25, Nvidia beat the revenue consensus by a wide margin and announced a major guidance increase that was above the street expectations by a significant margin as well. Thanks to this, Nvidia’s shares rallied, and the company was able to become one of the most valuable businesses in the world in less than two years.However, after the recent Q2’25 report came in, there’s a sign that the pace of growth appears to be slowing down, and it’s one of the main reasons why the stock has been declining recently. CNN reported that investors were likely disappointed that Nvidia didn’t beat the estimates by a wider margin. Another Seeking Alpha contributor Jonathan Weber also noted that while the revenue estimates were beaten by around 4%, it’s not as great when compared to a year ago when revenue estimates were beaten by around 20%. If we look at Nvidia’s earnings history, we’ll see that the revenue beat in absolute numbers has been shrinking during each consecutive quarter starting from Q2’24. Professor Aswath Damodaran noted that there are clear signs of more slowing to come, as scaling will continue to push revenue growth down.Earnings History (Seeking Alpha)In addition to that, the guidance also was relatively weak and contributed to the decline in share price as well. In Q3, Nvidia expects to generate $32.5 billion in revenues, which is less than a billion dollars from the consensus of $31.71 billion. This was one of the biggest disappointments of the recent earnings report, as the market expected a better guidance. Professor Aswath Damodaran also explained what to make from this guidance and what’s to come next, and we fully share his point of view:As a company that has played the expectations game well, it should come as no surprise that Nvidia provided guidance for future quarters in its second quarter report, and here too, there were reminders that comparisons would get more challenging in future quarters, as they predicted that revenue growth rates would come back to earth, and that margins would, at best, level off or perhaps even decline.Additional Issues To ConsiderWhile the guidance has been rather disappointing, there’s also a possibility that it would be more challenging for Nvidia to meet it, and especially exceed it, as it faces some additional challenges right now. Last month, news came in that Nvidia’s upcoming Blackwell GPUs will be delayed, which resulted in a short-term selloff of the company’s shares. Nvidia in the recent conference call hinted that the potential delay was due to the technical change to improve the production yields of Blackwell and the production ramp-up is expected only in Q4. As such, there’s a possibility that the overall performance in Q3 could also disappoint investors when the next earnings report comes out in November.There’s also a risk that the guidance in the next earnings report could also disappoint investors, since the company faces some external risks that are outside of its control. In the Q1 earnings call, the management admitted that their data center revenue in China is down significantly due to the American chip export restrictions that were implemented last year. In the recent Q2 earnings call, they repeated that their current sales in China are below the previous levels. Since the China-USA relations are not expected to significantly improve anytime soon and Beijing has recently retaliated by imposing its export restrictions as well, the macro risks will remain and will likely continue to undermine Nvidia’s efforts to grow revenues across the globe.As a result of all of that, we believe that Nvidia is not a good investment right now and its shares have a decent chance of continuing to depreciate or trade sideways in the upcoming months.The Intrinsic Value of NvidiaRight now, we believe that Nvidia’s stock is also overvalued, especially since it trades at a forward P/E of 38x, while the sector’s median P/E is only 23x. Seeking Alpha’s Quant system also gives Nvidia a rating of D- for valuation. To figure out Nvidia’s intrinsic value and how big is its downside, we created our valuation model.To create a model, we added some initial data that can be seen on the left side of the table below. The tax rate in our model is 21%. This is the current corporate tax rate in the United States. While Nvidia’s effective tax rate was lower in the last year, our model covers a period of the next five years where the tax rate might increase. This is why it makes sense to assume a higher rate in the model. We made this model at a time when Nvidia was trading at $116.91 per share, and the long-term debt and the cash reserves data was added from the latest earnings report. The perpetual growth rate is 3%, which is close to the historical inflation and GDP rate.The discount rate in our model is 10.28%. The calculation for the discount rate is presented in the middle and right columns of the table, which can be seen below. First, we calculated the cost of debt and the after-tax cost of debt by using Nvidia’s TTM financial data. Then we calculated the cost of equity by using the risk-free rate of 3.86%, the beta of 1.68, and the inflation-adjusted market-return rate of 7.70%. In the end, we weighted Nvidia’s debt profile with its equity and figured out the discount rate.Nvidia’s Valuation (Bears of Wall Street)Once we filled in the entry data, we moved on to forecasting Nvidia’s growth in the upcoming years. The sales growth rate of 106% in the model is similar to the overall expectations for the current fiscal year. While the pace of growth is expected to subside going forward, the company still had strong growth at the beginning of this fiscal year, which is why in FY25 we’ll still see a triple-digit rate for sales. After that, a normalization of the growth rate is expected to happen and is reflected in our model. The EBIT as a percentage of sales is 62% in the model, which is close to the company’s historical performance in recent months. The tax rate is 21%, while the assumptions for the rest of the metrics closely match up with Nvidia’s historical performance.Our forecast helped us figure out the present value of Nvidia’s FCF in the upcoming years. We were then able to calculate the cumulative value of Nvidia’s FCF, apply the discount and perpetual growth rates, and figure out the terminal value and the present value of Nvidia’s terminal value. We then added Nvidia’s present value of the terminal value to the cumulative present value of its FCF to calculate the company’s enterprise value, which in our case is $1.94 trillion.Once the enterprise value was found, we then added Nvidia’s cash, subtracted the long-term debt from it, and arrived at an equity value of $1.97 trillion. After that, we divided Nvidia’s equity value by the number of its shares and arrived at the intrinsic value of $79.33 per share. This means that Nvidia’s stock is overvalued by around 32%. That’s why we believe that Nvidia is a SELL right now.Nvidia’s Valuation (Bears of Wall Street)It’s also important to note that at a market cap of nearly ~$2. 65 trillion, it’s hard to justify Nvidia’s current price, even after the recent decline caused by the latest earnings report. The whole generative AI market under one of the most optimistic assumptions is expected to be worth $1.3 trillion in 2032. In addition, the overall cloud market could be worth only as much as $1.8 trillion by 2029. Considering this, Nvidia’s current valuation today simply doesn’t make a lot of sense to us.Risks To Our Bearish ThesisDespite all the negativity, several risks could undermine our bearish thesis. The most obvious is the potential greater ramp-up of sales in the second half of the year, which would make the market excited again about Nvidia’s growth prospects. The potential delay of Blackwell shipments could be offset by the potential increase of the company’s Hopper series GPUs, especially since their supply and availability have improved. This could ensure that Nvidia performs well in Q3, and makes investors once again excited about investing into its shares if the beat is significant.We also know from the latest conference call that the demand for Blackwell is above supply. If no further delays are announced, then when the Q3 report comes out, Nvidia could also announce a far more optimistic guidance for Q4, which could help revive the stock’s momentum later this year.Final ThoughtsNvidia’s biggest issue is that its stock is priced for perfection, and any earnings report that includes an earnings beat without an impressive margin and relatively disappointing guidance would likely prevent a further appreciation of shares. This has been the case with the latest earnings report and the subsequent reaction of the market to it.The macro challenges are also not going anywhere away, and potential catalysts might not even materialize in the end if the company fails to grow its sales due to potential supply issues or delays. That is why Nvidia’s upside is not guaranteed and until the Q3 numbers come out, its shares could continue to experience weakness. This is why at the current price, Nvidia stock is a SELL for us.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":348943088128312,"gmtCreate":1726231242737,"gmtModify":1726231246554,"author":{"id":"3580489378983205","authorId":"3580489378983205","authorIdStr":"3580489378983205","name":"cheeyang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08fa982f605ab633c4bdab795e3394fc","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b6219675842600ebb42baa43c645832","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3580489378983205"},"htmlText":"Stop showing your limited knowledge&nbsp;","listText":"Stop showing your limited knowledge&nbsp;","text":"Stop showing your limited knowledge","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348943088128312","repostId":2466270404,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2466270404","pubTimestamp":1726229310,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2466270404?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-13 20:08","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: The Price Is Too High","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2466270404","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.We also believe that Nvidia is","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.</p></li><li><p>Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.</p></li><li><p>We also believe that Nvidia is overvalued, its upside is limited, and its stock is a SELL for us.</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_3486510891\">Nvidia Disappoints The Market</h2><p>Two weeks ago, Nvidia released its Q2’25 earnings report, which showed that the revenues during the quarter were $30.04 billion, up 122.4% Y/Y and above the consensus by $1.29 billion. Despite such results, the company’s shares initially declined after the results were revealed.</p><p>In part, the decline was caused by the expectations that Nvidia’s growth rate is about to normalize in the upcoming quarters, which means that the triple-digit growth rate is likely to be a thing of the past next year and beyond.</p><p>If we look closely at the performance of Nvidia’s stock, we’ll see that it started to gain momentum in May 2023. That is when the Q1’24 report was released, which showed that while the company’s revenues declined Y/Y, major growth was expected in the following quarter thanks to the increased demand for its first generative AI GPUs from the H100 series that started to gain traction back then. As the generative AI revolution began to gather steam, the sales for the company’s AI GPUs were accelerating, which made Nvidia trade at excessive multiples that are mostly far beyond the sector’s median multiples.</p><p>Ever since that report came in, the market’s perception was that the company needed to significantly beat the consensus estimates and meaningfully increase its guidance all the time for the shares to continue to trade at those high multiples. This has been the case in recent quarters so far. In Q3’24, Q4’24, and Q1’25, Nvidia beat the revenue consensus by a wide margin and announced a major guidance increase that was above the street expectations by a significant margin as well. Thanks to this, Nvidia’s shares rallied, and the company was able to become one of the most valuable businesses in the world in less than two years.</p><p>However, after the recent Q2’25 report came in, there’s a sign that the pace of growth appears to be slowing down, and it’s one of the main reasons why the stock has been declining recently. CNN reported that investors were likely disappointed that Nvidia didn’t beat the estimates by a wider margin. Another Seeking Alpha contributor Jonathan Weber also noted that while the revenue estimates were beaten by around 4%, it’s not as great when compared to a year ago when revenue estimates were beaten by around 20%. If we look at Nvidia’s earnings history, we’ll see that the revenue beat in absolute numbers has been shrinking during each consecutive quarter starting from Q2’24. Professor Aswath Damodaran noted that <em>there are clear signs of more slowing to come, as scaling will continue to push revenue growth down.</em></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1e0ecde52260da152c697a1556ad66bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"137\"/></p><p>Earnings History (Seeking Alpha)</p><p>In addition to that, the guidance also was relatively weak and contributed to the decline in share price as well. In Q3, Nvidia expects to generate $32.5 billion in revenues, which is less than a billion dollars from the consensus of $31.71 billion. This was one of the biggest disappointments of the recent earnings report, as the market expected a better guidance. Professor Aswath Damodaran also explained what to make from this guidance and what’s to come next, and we fully share his point of view:</p><blockquote><p>As a company that has played the expectations game well, it should come as no surprise that Nvidia provided guidance for future quarters in its second quarter report, and here too, there were reminders that comparisons would get more challenging in future quarters, as they predicted that revenue growth rates would come back to earth, and that margins would, at best, level off or perhaps even decline.</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_3089099913\">Additional Issues To Consider</h2><p>While the guidance has been rather disappointing, there’s also a possibility that it would be more challenging for Nvidia to meet it, and especially exceed it, as it faces some additional challenges right now. Last month, news came in that Nvidia’s upcoming Blackwell GPUs will be delayed, which resulted in a short-term selloff of the company’s shares. Nvidia in the recent conference call hinted that the potential delay was due to the technical change to improve the production yields of Blackwell and the production ramp-up is expected only in Q4. As such, there’s a possibility that the overall performance in Q3 could also disappoint investors when the next earnings report comes out in November.</p><p>There’s also a risk that the guidance in the next earnings report could also disappoint investors, since the company faces some external risks that are outside of its control. In the Q1 earnings call, the management admitted that their data center revenue in China is down significantly due to the American chip export restrictions that were implemented last year. In the recent Q2 earnings call, they repeated that their current sales in China are below the previous levels. Since the China-USA relations are not expected to significantly improve anytime soon and Beijing has recently retaliated by imposing its export restrictions as well, the macro risks will remain and will likely continue to undermine Nvidia’s efforts to grow revenues across the globe.</p><p>As a result of all of that, we believe that Nvidia is not a good investment right now and its shares have a decent chance of continuing to depreciate or trade sideways in the upcoming months.</p><h2 id=\"id_2000837632\">The Intrinsic Value of Nvidia</h2><p>Right now, we believe that Nvidia’s stock is also overvalued, especially since it trades at a forward P/E of 38x, while the sector’s median P/E is only 23x. Seeking Alpha’s Quant system also gives Nvidia a rating of D- for valuation. To figure out Nvidia’s intrinsic value and how big is its downside, we created our valuation model.</p><p>To create a model, we added some initial data that can be seen on the left side of the table below. The tax rate in our model is 21%. This is the current corporate tax rate in the United States. While Nvidia’s effective tax rate was lower in the last year, our model covers a period of the next five years where the tax rate might increase. This is why it makes sense to assume a higher rate in the model. We made this model at a time when Nvidia was trading at $116.91 per share, and the long-term debt and the cash reserves data was added from the latest earnings report. The perpetual growth rate is 3%, which is close to the historical inflation and GDP rate.</p><p>The discount rate in our model is 10.28%. The calculation for the discount rate is presented in the middle and right columns of the table, which can be seen below. First, we calculated the cost of debt and the after-tax cost of debt by using Nvidia’s TTM financial data. Then we calculated the cost of equity by using the risk-free rate of 3.86%, the beta of 1.68, and the inflation-adjusted market-return rate of 7.70%. In the end, we weighted Nvidia’s debt profile with its equity and figured out the discount rate.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4525cc5cfd74d912557f2358499ce023\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"183\"/></p><p>Nvidia’s Valuation (Bears of Wall Street)</p><p>Once we filled in the entry data, we moved on to forecasting Nvidia’s growth in the upcoming years. The sales growth rate of 106% in the model is similar to the overall expectations for the current fiscal year. While the pace of growth is expected to subside going forward, the company still had strong growth at the beginning of this fiscal year, which is why in FY25 we’ll still see a triple-digit rate for sales. After that, a normalization of the growth rate is expected to happen and is reflected in our model. The EBIT as a percentage of sales is 62% in the model, which is close to the company’s historical performance in recent months. The tax rate is 21%, while the assumptions for the rest of the metrics closely match up with Nvidia’s historical performance.</p><p>Our forecast helped us figure out the present value of Nvidia’s FCF in the upcoming years. We were then able to calculate the cumulative value of Nvidia’s FCF, apply the discount and perpetual growth rates, and figure out the terminal value and the present value of Nvidia’s terminal value. We then added Nvidia’s present value of the terminal value to the cumulative present value of its FCF to calculate the company’s enterprise value, which in our case is $1.94 trillion.</p><p>Once the enterprise value was found, we then added Nvidia’s cash, subtracted the long-term debt from it, and arrived at an equity value of $1.97 trillion. After that, we divided Nvidia’s equity value by the number of its shares and arrived at the intrinsic value of $79.33 per share. This means that Nvidia’s stock is overvalued by around 32%. That’s why we believe that Nvidia is a SELL right now.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c7c5c3fa734baa66f95a87eecfb553f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"228\"/></p><p>Nvidia’s Valuation (Bears of Wall Street)</p><p>It’s also important to note that at a market cap of nearly ~$2. 65 trillion, it’s hard to justify Nvidia’s current price, even after the recent decline caused by the latest earnings report. The whole generative AI market under one of the most optimistic assumptions is expected to be worth $1.3 trillion in 2032. In addition, the overall cloud market could be worth only as much as $1.8 trillion by 2029. Considering this, Nvidia’s current valuation today simply doesn’t make a lot of sense to us.</p><h2 id=\"id_815598079\">Risks To Our Bearish Thesis</h2><p>Despite all the negativity, several risks could undermine our bearish thesis. The most obvious is the potential greater ramp-up of sales in the second half of the year, which would make the market excited again about Nvidia’s growth prospects. The potential delay of Blackwell shipments could be offset by the potential increase of the company’s Hopper series GPUs, especially since their supply and availability have improved. This could ensure that Nvidia performs well in Q3, and makes investors once again excited about investing into its shares if the beat is significant.</p><p>We also know from the latest conference call that the demand for Blackwell is above supply. If no further delays are announced, then when the Q3 report comes out, Nvidia could also announce a far more optimistic guidance for Q4, which could help revive the stock’s momentum later this year.</p><h2 id=\"id_584510153\">Final Thoughts</h2><p>Nvidia’s biggest issue is that its stock is priced for perfection, and any earnings report that includes an earnings beat without an impressive margin and relatively disappointing guidance would likely prevent a further appreciation of shares. This has been the case with the latest earnings report and the subsequent reaction of the market to it.</p><p>The macro challenges are also not going anywhere away, and potential catalysts might not even materialize in the end if the company fails to grow its sales due to potential supply issues or delays. That is why Nvidia’s upside is not guaranteed and until the Q3 numbers come out, its shares could continue to experience weakness. This is why at the current price, Nvidia stock is a SELL for us.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: The Price Is Too High</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: The Price Is Too High\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-13 20:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720611-nvidia-the-price-is-too-high><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.We also believe that Nvidia is...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720611-nvidia-the-price-is-too-high\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4588":"碎股","HK0000306701.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4579":"人工智能","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BZ199S13.USD":"BNY MELLON MOBILITY INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC","LU0048584097.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","IE00BYXW3230.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"AA\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","HK0000320264.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","HK0000320223.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","HK0000306685.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) INC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","BK4543":"AI"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720611-nvidia-the-price-is-too-high","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2466270404","content_text":"The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.We also believe that Nvidia is overvalued, its upside is limited, and its stock is a SELL for us.Nvidia Disappoints The MarketTwo weeks ago, Nvidia released its Q2’25 earnings report, which showed that the revenues during the quarter were $30.04 billion, up 122.4% Y/Y and above the consensus by $1.29 billion. Despite such results, the company’s shares initially declined after the results were revealed.In part, the decline was caused by the expectations that Nvidia’s growth rate is about to normalize in the upcoming quarters, which means that the triple-digit growth rate is likely to be a thing of the past next year and beyond.If we look closely at the performance of Nvidia’s stock, we’ll see that it started to gain momentum in May 2023. That is when the Q1’24 report was released, which showed that while the company’s revenues declined Y/Y, major growth was expected in the following quarter thanks to the increased demand for its first generative AI GPUs from the H100 series that started to gain traction back then. As the generative AI revolution began to gather steam, the sales for the company’s AI GPUs were accelerating, which made Nvidia trade at excessive multiples that are mostly far beyond the sector’s median multiples.Ever since that report came in, the market’s perception was that the company needed to significantly beat the consensus estimates and meaningfully increase its guidance all the time for the shares to continue to trade at those high multiples. This has been the case in recent quarters so far. In Q3’24, Q4’24, and Q1’25, Nvidia beat the revenue consensus by a wide margin and announced a major guidance increase that was above the street expectations by a significant margin as well. Thanks to this, Nvidia’s shares rallied, and the company was able to become one of the most valuable businesses in the world in less than two years.However, after the recent Q2’25 report came in, there’s a sign that the pace of growth appears to be slowing down, and it’s one of the main reasons why the stock has been declining recently. CNN reported that investors were likely disappointed that Nvidia didn’t beat the estimates by a wider margin. Another Seeking Alpha contributor Jonathan Weber also noted that while the revenue estimates were beaten by around 4%, it’s not as great when compared to a year ago when revenue estimates were beaten by around 20%. If we look at Nvidia’s earnings history, we’ll see that the revenue beat in absolute numbers has been shrinking during each consecutive quarter starting from Q2’24. Professor Aswath Damodaran noted that there are clear signs of more slowing to come, as scaling will continue to push revenue growth down.Earnings History (Seeking Alpha)In addition to that, the guidance also was relatively weak and contributed to the decline in share price as well. In Q3, Nvidia expects to generate $32.5 billion in revenues, which is less than a billion dollars from the consensus of $31.71 billion. This was one of the biggest disappointments of the recent earnings report, as the market expected a better guidance. Professor Aswath Damodaran also explained what to make from this guidance and what’s to come next, and we fully share his point of view:As a company that has played the expectations game well, it should come as no surprise that Nvidia provided guidance for future quarters in its second quarter report, and here too, there were reminders that comparisons would get more challenging in future quarters, as they predicted that revenue growth rates would come back to earth, and that margins would, at best, level off or perhaps even decline.Additional Issues To ConsiderWhile the guidance has been rather disappointing, there’s also a possibility that it would be more challenging for Nvidia to meet it, and especially exceed it, as it faces some additional challenges right now. Last month, news came in that Nvidia’s upcoming Blackwell GPUs will be delayed, which resulted in a short-term selloff of the company’s shares. Nvidia in the recent conference call hinted that the potential delay was due to the technical change to improve the production yields of Blackwell and the production ramp-up is expected only in Q4. As such, there’s a possibility that the overall performance in Q3 could also disappoint investors when the next earnings report comes out in November.There’s also a risk that the guidance in the next earnings report could also disappoint investors, since the company faces some external risks that are outside of its control. In the Q1 earnings call, the management admitted that their data center revenue in China is down significantly due to the American chip export restrictions that were implemented last year. In the recent Q2 earnings call, they repeated that their current sales in China are below the previous levels. Since the China-USA relations are not expected to significantly improve anytime soon and Beijing has recently retaliated by imposing its export restrictions as well, the macro risks will remain and will likely continue to undermine Nvidia’s efforts to grow revenues across the globe.As a result of all of that, we believe that Nvidia is not a good investment right now and its shares have a decent chance of continuing to depreciate or trade sideways in the upcoming months.The Intrinsic Value of NvidiaRight now, we believe that Nvidia’s stock is also overvalued, especially since it trades at a forward P/E of 38x, while the sector’s median P/E is only 23x. Seeking Alpha’s Quant system also gives Nvidia a rating of D- for valuation. To figure out Nvidia’s intrinsic value and how big is its downside, we created our valuation model.To create a model, we added some initial data that can be seen on the left side of the table below. The tax rate in our model is 21%. This is the current corporate tax rate in the United States. While Nvidia’s effective tax rate was lower in the last year, our model covers a period of the next five years where the tax rate might increase. This is why it makes sense to assume a higher rate in the model. We made this model at a time when Nvidia was trading at $116.91 per share, and the long-term debt and the cash reserves data was added from the latest earnings report. The perpetual growth rate is 3%, which is close to the historical inflation and GDP rate.The discount rate in our model is 10.28%. The calculation for the discount rate is presented in the middle and right columns of the table, which can be seen below. First, we calculated the cost of debt and the after-tax cost of debt by using Nvidia’s TTM financial data. Then we calculated the cost of equity by using the risk-free rate of 3.86%, the beta of 1.68, and the inflation-adjusted market-return rate of 7.70%. In the end, we weighted Nvidia’s debt profile with its equity and figured out the discount rate.Nvidia’s Valuation (Bears of Wall Street)Once we filled in the entry data, we moved on to forecasting Nvidia’s growth in the upcoming years. The sales growth rate of 106% in the model is similar to the overall expectations for the current fiscal year. While the pace of growth is expected to subside going forward, the company still had strong growth at the beginning of this fiscal year, which is why in FY25 we’ll still see a triple-digit rate for sales. After that, a normalization of the growth rate is expected to happen and is reflected in our model. The EBIT as a percentage of sales is 62% in the model, which is close to the company’s historical performance in recent months. The tax rate is 21%, while the assumptions for the rest of the metrics closely match up with Nvidia’s historical performance.Our forecast helped us figure out the present value of Nvidia’s FCF in the upcoming years. We were then able to calculate the cumulative value of Nvidia’s FCF, apply the discount and perpetual growth rates, and figure out the terminal value and the present value of Nvidia’s terminal value. We then added Nvidia’s present value of the terminal value to the cumulative present value of its FCF to calculate the company’s enterprise value, which in our case is $1.94 trillion.Once the enterprise value was found, we then added Nvidia’s cash, subtracted the long-term debt from it, and arrived at an equity value of $1.97 trillion. After that, we divided Nvidia’s equity value by the number of its shares and arrived at the intrinsic value of $79.33 per share. This means that Nvidia’s stock is overvalued by around 32%. That’s why we believe that Nvidia is a SELL right now.Nvidia’s Valuation (Bears of Wall Street)It’s also important to note that at a market cap of nearly ~$2. 65 trillion, it’s hard to justify Nvidia’s current price, even after the recent decline caused by the latest earnings report. The whole generative AI market under one of the most optimistic assumptions is expected to be worth $1.3 trillion in 2032. In addition, the overall cloud market could be worth only as much as $1.8 trillion by 2029. Considering this, Nvidia’s current valuation today simply doesn’t make a lot of sense to us.Risks To Our Bearish ThesisDespite all the negativity, several risks could undermine our bearish thesis. The most obvious is the potential greater ramp-up of sales in the second half of the year, which would make the market excited again about Nvidia’s growth prospects. The potential delay of Blackwell shipments could be offset by the potential increase of the company’s Hopper series GPUs, especially since their supply and availability have improved. This could ensure that Nvidia performs well in Q3, and makes investors once again excited about investing into its shares if the beat is significant.We also know from the latest conference call that the demand for Blackwell is above supply. If no further delays are announced, then when the Q3 report comes out, Nvidia could also announce a far more optimistic guidance for Q4, which could help revive the stock’s momentum later this year.Final ThoughtsNvidia’s biggest issue is that its stock is priced for perfection, and any earnings report that includes an earnings beat without an impressive margin and relatively disappointing guidance would likely prevent a further appreciation of shares. This has been the case with the latest earnings report and the subsequent reaction of the market to it.The macro challenges are also not going anywhere away, and potential catalysts might not even materialize in the end if the company fails to grow its sales due to potential supply issues or delays. That is why Nvidia’s upside is not guaranteed and until the Q3 numbers come out, its shares could continue to experience weakness. This is why at the current price, Nvidia stock is a SELL for us.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":348977889988880,"gmtCreate":1726220390662,"gmtModify":1726220394262,"author":{"id":"3574807189087941","authorId":"3574807189087941","authorIdStr":"3574807189087941","name":"Icywinddale","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3bd2fbf9d90e26b2f600b2c5d7c54244","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574807189087941"},"htmlText":"u know ZERO. Wrote something worth reading.","listText":"u know ZERO. Wrote something worth reading.","text":"u know ZERO. Wrote something worth reading.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348977889988880","repostId":2466270404,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2466270404","pubTimestamp":1726229310,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2466270404?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-09-13 20:08","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: The Price Is Too High","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2466270404","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.We also believe that Nvidia is","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.</p></li><li><p>Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.</p></li><li><p>We also believe that Nvidia is overvalued, its upside is limited, and its stock is a SELL for us.</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_3486510891\">Nvidia Disappoints The Market</h2><p>Two weeks ago, Nvidia released its Q2’25 earnings report, which showed that the revenues during the quarter were $30.04 billion, up 122.4% Y/Y and above the consensus by $1.29 billion. Despite such results, the company’s shares initially declined after the results were revealed.</p><p>In part, the decline was caused by the expectations that Nvidia’s growth rate is about to normalize in the upcoming quarters, which means that the triple-digit growth rate is likely to be a thing of the past next year and beyond.</p><p>If we look closely at the performance of Nvidia’s stock, we’ll see that it started to gain momentum in May 2023. That is when the Q1’24 report was released, which showed that while the company’s revenues declined Y/Y, major growth was expected in the following quarter thanks to the increased demand for its first generative AI GPUs from the H100 series that started to gain traction back then. As the generative AI revolution began to gather steam, the sales for the company’s AI GPUs were accelerating, which made Nvidia trade at excessive multiples that are mostly far beyond the sector’s median multiples.</p><p>Ever since that report came in, the market’s perception was that the company needed to significantly beat the consensus estimates and meaningfully increase its guidance all the time for the shares to continue to trade at those high multiples. This has been the case in recent quarters so far. In Q3’24, Q4’24, and Q1’25, Nvidia beat the revenue consensus by a wide margin and announced a major guidance increase that was above the street expectations by a significant margin as well. Thanks to this, Nvidia’s shares rallied, and the company was able to become one of the most valuable businesses in the world in less than two years.</p><p>However, after the recent Q2’25 report came in, there’s a sign that the pace of growth appears to be slowing down, and it’s one of the main reasons why the stock has been declining recently. CNN reported that investors were likely disappointed that Nvidia didn’t beat the estimates by a wider margin. Another Seeking Alpha contributor Jonathan Weber also noted that while the revenue estimates were beaten by around 4%, it’s not as great when compared to a year ago when revenue estimates were beaten by around 20%. If we look at Nvidia’s earnings history, we’ll see that the revenue beat in absolute numbers has been shrinking during each consecutive quarter starting from Q2’24. Professor Aswath Damodaran noted that <em>there are clear signs of more slowing to come, as scaling will continue to push revenue growth down.</em></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1e0ecde52260da152c697a1556ad66bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"137\"/></p><p>Earnings History (Seeking Alpha)</p><p>In addition to that, the guidance also was relatively weak and contributed to the decline in share price as well. In Q3, Nvidia expects to generate $32.5 billion in revenues, which is less than a billion dollars from the consensus of $31.71 billion. This was one of the biggest disappointments of the recent earnings report, as the market expected a better guidance. Professor Aswath Damodaran also explained what to make from this guidance and what’s to come next, and we fully share his point of view:</p><blockquote><p>As a company that has played the expectations game well, it should come as no surprise that Nvidia provided guidance for future quarters in its second quarter report, and here too, there were reminders that comparisons would get more challenging in future quarters, as they predicted that revenue growth rates would come back to earth, and that margins would, at best, level off or perhaps even decline.</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_3089099913\">Additional Issues To Consider</h2><p>While the guidance has been rather disappointing, there’s also a possibility that it would be more challenging for Nvidia to meet it, and especially exceed it, as it faces some additional challenges right now. Last month, news came in that Nvidia’s upcoming Blackwell GPUs will be delayed, which resulted in a short-term selloff of the company’s shares. Nvidia in the recent conference call hinted that the potential delay was due to the technical change to improve the production yields of Blackwell and the production ramp-up is expected only in Q4. As such, there’s a possibility that the overall performance in Q3 could also disappoint investors when the next earnings report comes out in November.</p><p>There’s also a risk that the guidance in the next earnings report could also disappoint investors, since the company faces some external risks that are outside of its control. In the Q1 earnings call, the management admitted that their data center revenue in China is down significantly due to the American chip export restrictions that were implemented last year. In the recent Q2 earnings call, they repeated that their current sales in China are below the previous levels. Since the China-USA relations are not expected to significantly improve anytime soon and Beijing has recently retaliated by imposing its export restrictions as well, the macro risks will remain and will likely continue to undermine Nvidia’s efforts to grow revenues across the globe.</p><p>As a result of all of that, we believe that Nvidia is not a good investment right now and its shares have a decent chance of continuing to depreciate or trade sideways in the upcoming months.</p><h2 id=\"id_2000837632\">The Intrinsic Value of Nvidia</h2><p>Right now, we believe that Nvidia’s stock is also overvalued, especially since it trades at a forward P/E of 38x, while the sector’s median P/E is only 23x. Seeking Alpha’s Quant system also gives Nvidia a rating of D- for valuation. To figure out Nvidia’s intrinsic value and how big is its downside, we created our valuation model.</p><p>To create a model, we added some initial data that can be seen on the left side of the table below. The tax rate in our model is 21%. This is the current corporate tax rate in the United States. While Nvidia’s effective tax rate was lower in the last year, our model covers a period of the next five years where the tax rate might increase. This is why it makes sense to assume a higher rate in the model. We made this model at a time when Nvidia was trading at $116.91 per share, and the long-term debt and the cash reserves data was added from the latest earnings report. The perpetual growth rate is 3%, which is close to the historical inflation and GDP rate.</p><p>The discount rate in our model is 10.28%. The calculation for the discount rate is presented in the middle and right columns of the table, which can be seen below. First, we calculated the cost of debt and the after-tax cost of debt by using Nvidia’s TTM financial data. Then we calculated the cost of equity by using the risk-free rate of 3.86%, the beta of 1.68, and the inflation-adjusted market-return rate of 7.70%. In the end, we weighted Nvidia’s debt profile with its equity and figured out the discount rate.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4525cc5cfd74d912557f2358499ce023\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"183\"/></p><p>Nvidia’s Valuation (Bears of Wall Street)</p><p>Once we filled in the entry data, we moved on to forecasting Nvidia’s growth in the upcoming years. The sales growth rate of 106% in the model is similar to the overall expectations for the current fiscal year. While the pace of growth is expected to subside going forward, the company still had strong growth at the beginning of this fiscal year, which is why in FY25 we’ll still see a triple-digit rate for sales. After that, a normalization of the growth rate is expected to happen and is reflected in our model. The EBIT as a percentage of sales is 62% in the model, which is close to the company’s historical performance in recent months. The tax rate is 21%, while the assumptions for the rest of the metrics closely match up with Nvidia’s historical performance.</p><p>Our forecast helped us figure out the present value of Nvidia’s FCF in the upcoming years. We were then able to calculate the cumulative value of Nvidia’s FCF, apply the discount and perpetual growth rates, and figure out the terminal value and the present value of Nvidia’s terminal value. We then added Nvidia’s present value of the terminal value to the cumulative present value of its FCF to calculate the company’s enterprise value, which in our case is $1.94 trillion.</p><p>Once the enterprise value was found, we then added Nvidia’s cash, subtracted the long-term debt from it, and arrived at an equity value of $1.97 trillion. After that, we divided Nvidia’s equity value by the number of its shares and arrived at the intrinsic value of $79.33 per share. This means that Nvidia’s stock is overvalued by around 32%. That’s why we believe that Nvidia is a SELL right now.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c7c5c3fa734baa66f95a87eecfb553f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"228\"/></p><p>Nvidia’s Valuation (Bears of Wall Street)</p><p>It’s also important to note that at a market cap of nearly ~$2. 65 trillion, it’s hard to justify Nvidia’s current price, even after the recent decline caused by the latest earnings report. The whole generative AI market under one of the most optimistic assumptions is expected to be worth $1.3 trillion in 2032. In addition, the overall cloud market could be worth only as much as $1.8 trillion by 2029. Considering this, Nvidia’s current valuation today simply doesn’t make a lot of sense to us.</p><h2 id=\"id_815598079\">Risks To Our Bearish Thesis</h2><p>Despite all the negativity, several risks could undermine our bearish thesis. The most obvious is the potential greater ramp-up of sales in the second half of the year, which would make the market excited again about Nvidia’s growth prospects. The potential delay of Blackwell shipments could be offset by the potential increase of the company’s Hopper series GPUs, especially since their supply and availability have improved. This could ensure that Nvidia performs well in Q3, and makes investors once again excited about investing into its shares if the beat is significant.</p><p>We also know from the latest conference call that the demand for Blackwell is above supply. If no further delays are announced, then when the Q3 report comes out, Nvidia could also announce a far more optimistic guidance for Q4, which could help revive the stock’s momentum later this year.</p><h2 id=\"id_584510153\">Final Thoughts</h2><p>Nvidia’s biggest issue is that its stock is priced for perfection, and any earnings report that includes an earnings beat without an impressive margin and relatively disappointing guidance would likely prevent a further appreciation of shares. This has been the case with the latest earnings report and the subsequent reaction of the market to it.</p><p>The macro challenges are also not going anywhere away, and potential catalysts might not even materialize in the end if the company fails to grow its sales due to potential supply issues or delays. That is why Nvidia’s upside is not guaranteed and until the Q3 numbers come out, its shares could continue to experience weakness. This is why at the current price, Nvidia stock is a SELL for us.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: The Price Is Too High</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: The Price Is Too High\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-13 20:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720611-nvidia-the-price-is-too-high><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.We also believe that Nvidia is...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720611-nvidia-the-price-is-too-high\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4588":"碎股","HK0000306701.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4579":"人工智能","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BZ199S13.USD":"BNY MELLON MOBILITY INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC","LU0048584097.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS  GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","IE00BYXW3230.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"AA\" (USD) ACC","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","HK0000320264.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","HK0000320223.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","HK0000306685.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) INC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","BK4543":"AI"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720611-nvidia-the-price-is-too-high","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2466270404","content_text":"The market has negatively reacted to Nvidia’s latest earnings report.Nvidia faces several risks that will likely undermine its efforts to grow its sales across the globe.We also believe that Nvidia is overvalued, its upside is limited, and its stock is a SELL for us.Nvidia Disappoints The MarketTwo weeks ago, Nvidia released its Q2’25 earnings report, which showed that the revenues during the quarter were $30.04 billion, up 122.4% Y/Y and above the consensus by $1.29 billion. Despite such results, the company’s shares initially declined after the results were revealed.In part, the decline was caused by the expectations that Nvidia’s growth rate is about to normalize in the upcoming quarters, which means that the triple-digit growth rate is likely to be a thing of the past next year and beyond.If we look closely at the performance of Nvidia’s stock, we’ll see that it started to gain momentum in May 2023. That is when the Q1’24 report was released, which showed that while the company’s revenues declined Y/Y, major growth was expected in the following quarter thanks to the increased demand for its first generative AI GPUs from the H100 series that started to gain traction back then. As the generative AI revolution began to gather steam, the sales for the company’s AI GPUs were accelerating, which made Nvidia trade at excessive multiples that are mostly far beyond the sector’s median multiples.Ever since that report came in, the market’s perception was that the company needed to significantly beat the consensus estimates and meaningfully increase its guidance all the time for the shares to continue to trade at those high multiples. This has been the case in recent quarters so far. In Q3’24, Q4’24, and Q1’25, Nvidia beat the revenue consensus by a wide margin and announced a major guidance increase that was above the street expectations by a significant margin as well. Thanks to this, Nvidia’s shares rallied, and the company was able to become one of the most valuable businesses in the world in less than two years.However, after the recent Q2’25 report came in, there’s a sign that the pace of growth appears to be slowing down, and it’s one of the main reasons why the stock has been declining recently. CNN reported that investors were likely disappointed that Nvidia didn’t beat the estimates by a wider margin. Another Seeking Alpha contributor Jonathan Weber also noted that while the revenue estimates were beaten by around 4%, it’s not as great when compared to a year ago when revenue estimates were beaten by around 20%. If we look at Nvidia’s earnings history, we’ll see that the revenue beat in absolute numbers has been shrinking during each consecutive quarter starting from Q2’24. Professor Aswath Damodaran noted that there are clear signs of more slowing to come, as scaling will continue to push revenue growth down.Earnings History (Seeking Alpha)In addition to that, the guidance also was relatively weak and contributed to the decline in share price as well. In Q3, Nvidia expects to generate $32.5 billion in revenues, which is less than a billion dollars from the consensus of $31.71 billion. This was one of the biggest disappointments of the recent earnings report, as the market expected a better guidance. Professor Aswath Damodaran also explained what to make from this guidance and what’s to come next, and we fully share his point of view:As a company that has played the expectations game well, it should come as no surprise that Nvidia provided guidance for future quarters in its second quarter report, and here too, there were reminders that comparisons would get more challenging in future quarters, as they predicted that revenue growth rates would come back to earth, and that margins would, at best, level off or perhaps even decline.Additional Issues To ConsiderWhile the guidance has been rather disappointing, there’s also a possibility that it would be more challenging for Nvidia to meet it, and especially exceed it, as it faces some additional challenges right now. Last month, news came in that Nvidia’s upcoming Blackwell GPUs will be delayed, which resulted in a short-term selloff of the company’s shares. Nvidia in the recent conference call hinted that the potential delay was due to the technical change to improve the production yields of Blackwell and the production ramp-up is expected only in Q4. As such, there’s a possibility that the overall performance in Q3 could also disappoint investors when the next earnings report comes out in November.There’s also a risk that the guidance in the next earnings report could also disappoint investors, since the company faces some external risks that are outside of its control. In the Q1 earnings call, the management admitted that their data center revenue in China is down significantly due to the American chip export restrictions that were implemented last year. In the recent Q2 earnings call, they repeated that their current sales in China are below the previous levels. Since the China-USA relations are not expected to significantly improve anytime soon and Beijing has recently retaliated by imposing its export restrictions as well, the macro risks will remain and will likely continue to undermine Nvidia’s efforts to grow revenues across the globe.As a result of all of that, we believe that Nvidia is not a good investment right now and its shares have a decent chance of continuing to depreciate or trade sideways in the upcoming months.The Intrinsic Value of NvidiaRight now, we believe that Nvidia’s stock is also overvalued, especially since it trades at a forward P/E of 38x, while the sector’s median P/E is only 23x. Seeking Alpha’s Quant system also gives Nvidia a rating of D- for valuation. To figure out Nvidia’s intrinsic value and how big is its downside, we created our valuation model.To create a model, we added some initial data that can be seen on the left side of the table below. The tax rate in our model is 21%. This is the current corporate tax rate in the United States. While Nvidia’s effective tax rate was lower in the last year, our model covers a period of the next five years where the tax rate might increase. This is why it makes sense to assume a higher rate in the model. We made this model at a time when Nvidia was trading at $116.91 per share, and the long-term debt and the cash reserves data was added from the latest earnings report. The perpetual growth rate is 3%, which is close to the historical inflation and GDP rate.The discount rate in our model is 10.28%. The calculation for the discount rate is presented in the middle and right columns of the table, which can be seen below. First, we calculated the cost of debt and the after-tax cost of debt by using Nvidia’s TTM financial data. Then we calculated the cost of equity by using the risk-free rate of 3.86%, the beta of 1.68, and the inflation-adjusted market-return rate of 7.70%. In the end, we weighted Nvidia’s debt profile with its equity and figured out the discount rate.Nvidia’s Valuation (Bears of Wall Street)Once we filled in the entry data, we moved on to forecasting Nvidia’s growth in the upcoming years. The sales growth rate of 106% in the model is similar to the overall expectations for the current fiscal year. While the pace of growth is expected to subside going forward, the company still had strong growth at the beginning of this fiscal year, which is why in FY25 we’ll still see a triple-digit rate for sales. After that, a normalization of the growth rate is expected to happen and is reflected in our model. The EBIT as a percentage of sales is 62% in the model, which is close to the company’s historical performance in recent months. The tax rate is 21%, while the assumptions for the rest of the metrics closely match up with Nvidia’s historical performance.Our forecast helped us figure out the present value of Nvidia’s FCF in the upcoming years. We were then able to calculate the cumulative value of Nvidia’s FCF, apply the discount and perpetual growth rates, and figure out the terminal value and the present value of Nvidia’s terminal value. We then added Nvidia’s present value of the terminal value to the cumulative present value of its FCF to calculate the company’s enterprise value, which in our case is $1.94 trillion.Once the enterprise value was found, we then added Nvidia’s cash, subtracted the long-term debt from it, and arrived at an equity value of $1.97 trillion. After that, we divided Nvidia’s equity value by the number of its shares and arrived at the intrinsic value of $79.33 per share. This means that Nvidia’s stock is overvalued by around 32%. That’s why we believe that Nvidia is a SELL right now.Nvidia’s Valuation (Bears of Wall Street)It’s also important to note that at a market cap of nearly ~$2. 65 trillion, it’s hard to justify Nvidia’s current price, even after the recent decline caused by the latest earnings report. The whole generative AI market under one of the most optimistic assumptions is expected to be worth $1.3 trillion in 2032. In addition, the overall cloud market could be worth only as much as $1.8 trillion by 2029. Considering this, Nvidia’s current valuation today simply doesn’t make a lot of sense to us.Risks To Our Bearish ThesisDespite all the negativity, several risks could undermine our bearish thesis. The most obvious is the potential greater ramp-up of sales in the second half of the year, which would make the market excited again about Nvidia’s growth prospects. The potential delay of Blackwell shipments could be offset by the potential increase of the company’s Hopper series GPUs, especially since their supply and availability have improved. This could ensure that Nvidia performs well in Q3, and makes investors once again excited about investing into its shares if the beat is significant.We also know from the latest conference call that the demand for Blackwell is above supply. If no further delays are announced, then when the Q3 report comes out, Nvidia could also announce a far more optimistic guidance for Q4, which could help revive the stock’s momentum later this year.Final ThoughtsNvidia’s biggest issue is that its stock is priced for perfection, and any earnings report that includes an earnings beat without an impressive margin and relatively disappointing guidance would likely prevent a further appreciation of shares. This has been the case with the latest earnings report and the subsequent reaction of the market to it.The macro challenges are also not going anywhere away, and potential catalysts might not even materialize in the end if the company fails to grow its sales due to potential supply issues or delays. That is why Nvidia’s upside is not guaranteed and until the Q3 numbers come out, its shares could continue to experience weakness. This is why at the current price, Nvidia stock is a SELL for us.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":15,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":4,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.28.3","shortVersion":"4.28.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2466270404"}