Golub Capital BDC's NAV, Valuation, And Dividend Vs. 14 BDC Peers - Part 2 (Includes Dividend Projection)

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Part 2 of this article compares GBDC’s recent dividend per share rates, yield percentages, and several other highly detailed (and useful) dividend sustainability metrics to 14 other BDC peers.This ...

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Part 2 (Includes Dividend Projection)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-11 16:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720361-golub-capital-bdcs-nav-valuation-and-dividend-versus-14-bdc-peers-part-2-includes-dividend-projection><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Part 2 of this article compares GBDC’s recent dividend per share rates, yield percentages, and several other highly detailed (and useful) dividend sustainability metrics to 14 other BDC peers.This ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720361-golub-capital-bdcs-nav-valuation-and-dividend-versus-14-bdc-peers-part-2-includes-dividend-projection\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"NEWT","symbol_name":"NEWTEKONE INC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720361-golub-capital-bdcs-nav-valuation-and-dividend-versus-14-bdc-peers-part-2-includes-dividend-projection","article_id":"2466472941","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1503371245/image_1503371245.jpg"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2466472941","pubTimestamp":1726042095,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Part 2 of this article compares GBDC’s recent dividend per share rates, yield percentages, and several other highly detailed (and useful) dividend sustainability metrics to 14 other BDC peers.This inc","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"NEWT":"NEWTEKONE INC","IE00B42XCP33.USD":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (USD) INC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BDC":"百通公司","PSEC":"普罗斯佩克特资本","ARCC":"阿瑞斯","TPVG":"Triplepoint Venture Growth BDC Corp","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00B3PB1722.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (GBP) INC","LU2430703095.HKD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (HKD) INC","SLRC":"SLR Investment Corp","BUY":"USCF SummerHaven SHPEI Index Fund","MFIC":"MidCap Financial Investment Corp","GBDC":"Golub Capital BDC","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","IE00BDGV0183.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (EUR) INC","NAV":"纳威司达","LU2125154935.USD":"ALLSPRING (LUX) WF GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"I\" (USD) INC","CSWC":"西南资本","LU0772969993.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) ACC","FSK":"FS KKR Capital","GAIN":"格拉德斯通投资","LU2360032135.SGD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (SGDHDG) INC","TSLX":"TPG Specialty Lending Inc","BLK":"贝莱德","IE00B64PRP62.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL MONEY MANAGERS \"C\" (GBP) ACC","OCSL":"Oaktree Specialty Lending Corp","LU1599440770.SGD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","IE00B3QW5Z07.USD":"GUINNESS GLOBAL MONEY MANAGERS \"C\" (USD) ACC","TCPC":"BlackRock Tcp","OBDC":"Blue Owl Capital Corporation","IE00BGHQF748.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL MONEY MANAGERS \"C\" (EUR) ACC","BXSL":"Blackstone Secured Lending Fund","IE00BGHQF631.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (EUR) ACC","MAIN":"Main Street Capital","LU1291159041.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Silver Age A2 Acc SGD-H","PFLT":"PennantPark Floating Rate Capital"},"translate_title":"Golub Capital BDC的资产净值、估值和股息与。14家BDC同行-第2部分（包括股息预测）","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BDC":1,"OBDC":1,"NEWT":1,"NAV":1,"MFIC":1,"MAIN":1,"OCSL":1,"PFLT":1,"PSEC":1,"SLRC":1,"TCPC":1,"TPVG":1,"TSLX":1,"ARCC":1,"BLK":1,"BUY":1,"BXSL":1,"CSWC":1,"FSK":1,"GAIN":1,"GBDC":1,"US5Y.BOND":0.9,"US7Y.BOND":0.9,"US10Y.BOND":0.9,"US12M.BOND":0.9,"US2Y.BOND":0.9,"US30Y.BOND":0.9,"US3Y.BOND":0.9,"US6M.BOND":0.9,"US912797GL51.BOND":0.6,"US912797GW17.BOND":0.6,"US912797HE00.BOND":0.6},"content_text":"Part 2 of this article compares GBDC’s recent dividend per share rates, yield percentages, and several other highly detailed (and useful) dividend sustainability metrics to 14 other BDC peers.This includes a comparative analysis of GBDC’s cumulative undistributed taxable income ratio, percentage of floating-rate debt investments, recent weighted average annualized yield, and weighted average interest rate on outstanding borrowings.GBDC’s “base” dividend sustainability remains strong. When comparing/analyzing all metrics (including additional metrics not mentioned), GBDC is currently deemed to be undervalued (BUY).Most BDCs will continue to have sustainable (and some special periodic) dividends over the foreseeable future (though special dividends likely decreasing over time). Credit risk will continue to be monitored/modeled.Simplyput, contrary to recent speculation, GBDC’s base dividend remains safe. In addition, GBDC is currently only one of several sector peers with a decent valuation.   MicroStockHub Focus of Article: The focus of this two-part article is a very detailed analysis comparing Golub Capital BDC Inc.’s (NASDAQ:GBDC) to some of the company’s business development company (“BDC”) peers (all sector peers I currently fully cover). I am writing this two-part article due to the continued requests that such an analysis be specifically performed on GBDC and some of the company’s BDC peers at periodic intervals. For readers who just want the summarized conclusions/results, I would suggest to scroll down to the “Conclusions Drawn” section at the bottom of each part of the article. PART 1 of this article analyzed GBDC’s recent quarterly results and compared several of the company’s metrics to 14 BDC peers. PART 1 helps lead to a better understanding of the topics and analysis that will be discussed in PART 2. The link to PART 1’s analysis is provided below: REIT Forum Version (Expanded Analytics/Sorted Tables):  Scott Kennedy’s BDC Series: Golub Capital BDC’s NAV, Valuation, And Dividend Versus 14 BDC Peers – Part 1 (Post Q2 2024 Earnings) Public Version: Golub Capital BDC's NAV, Valuation, And Dividend Versus 14 BDC Peers - Part 1 (Includes Recommendations As Of 8/23/2024) PART 2 of this article compares GBDC’s recent dividend per share rates, yield percentages, and several other highly unique dividend sustainability metrics to 14 BDC peers. This analysis will show recent past data with supporting documentation within Table 11 below. This article will also provide GBDC’s dividend sustainability projection for calendar Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 which is partially based on the metrics shown in Table 11 and several additional metrics shown in Table 12 below. By analyzing these metrics, one will better understand which BDC generally has a safer dividend rate going forward versus other peers who have a higher risk for a dividend decrease or a higher probability of a dividend increase and/or a special periodic dividend being declared. This is not the only data that should be examined to initiate a position within a particular stock/sector or project future dividend per share rates. However, I believe this analysis would be a good “starting-point” to begin a discussion on the topic. At the end of this article, there will be a conclusion regarding various comparisons between GBDC and the 14 other BDC peers. In addition, I will provide my current BUY, SELL, or HOLD recommendation and price target on GBDC. Dividend projections for calendar Q4 2024 (or next set of dividend declarations) and excess taxable income balances for the other 14 BDC peers are exclusive to our subscribers. Side Note: As of 9/6/2024, GBDC had a stock price that “reset” lower regarding the company’s regular quarterly dividend accrual. In other words, this company’s “ex-dividend date” has occurred. In addition, MidCap Financial Investment Corp. (MFIC), GBDC, Sixth Street Specialty Lending Inc. (TSLX), and Blue Owl Capital Corp. (OBDC) (formerly ORCC) had a stock price that reset lower regarding each company’s special periodic dividend accrual. MFIC, Ares Capital Corp. (ARCC), Oaktree Specialty Lending Corp. (OCSL), FS KKR Capital Corp. (FSK), Gladstone Investment Corp. (GAIN), Main Street Capital Corp. (MAIN), SLR Investment Corp. (SLRC), BlackRock (BLK) TCP Capital Corp. (TCPC), TSLX, Capital Southwest Corp. (CSWC), PennantPark Floating Rate Capital Ltd. (PFLT), OBDC, TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG), and Blackstone Secured Lending Fund (BXSL) had a stock price that had not reset lower regarding each company’s regular September 2024 monthly/quarterly dividend accrual. In addition, FSK, MAIN, and CSWC had a stock price that had not reset lower regarding the company’s special periodic dividend accrual. Readers should take this into consideration as the analysis is presented below. Dividend Per Share Rates and Yield Percentages Analysis - Overview: Let us start this analysis by first getting accustomed to the information provided in Table 11 below. This will be beneficial when comparing GBDC to the 14 other BDC peers regarding quarterly dividend per share rates and yield percentages. Table 11 – Dividend Per Share Rates and Yield Percentages The REIT Forum (Source: Table created entirely by myself, obtaining historical stock prices from NASDAQ and each company’s dividend per share rates from the SEC’s EDGAR Database) Using Table 11 above as a reference, the following information is presented in regards to GBDC and 14 other BDC peers (see each corresponding column): 1) dividend per share rate for calendar Q2 2024 (including any special periodic dividend); 2) stock price as of 6/14/2024; 3) trailing 12-month (“TTM”) dividend yield (dividend per share rate from calendar Q3 2023 – Q2 2024 [includes all special periodic dividends]); 4) annual forward dividend yield based on the dividend per share rate for calendar Q2 2024 using the stock price as of 6/14/2024 (for monthly dividend payers, the latest monthly dividend per share rate during the quarter); 5) annual forward dividend yield based on the dividend per share rate for calendar Q2 2024 using the NAV as of 3/31/2024 (for monthly dividend payers, the latest monthly dividend per share rate during the quarter); 6) TTM dividend increase (decrease) percentage (for monthly dividend payers, dividend per share rate fluctuation from June 2023 - June 2024); 7) dividend per share rate for calendar Q3 2024 (including any special periodic dividend); 8) stock price as of 9/6/2024; 9) TTM dividend yield (dividend per share rate from calendar Q4 2023 – Q3 2024 [includes all special periodic dividends]); 10) annual forward dividend yield based on the dividend per share rate for calendar Q3 2024 using the stock price as of 9/6/2024 (for monthly dividend payers, the latest monthly dividend per share rate during the quarter); 11) annual forward dividend yield based on the dividend per share rate for calendar Q3 2024 using my projected CURRENT NAV (NAV as of 9/6/2024; for monthly dividend payers, the latest monthly dividend per share rate during the quarter); 12) TTM dividend increase (decrease) percentage (for monthly dividend payers, dividend per share rate fluctuation from September 2023 - September 2024); and 13) 5-year dividend increase (decrease) percentage (for monthly dividend payers, dividend per share rate fluctuation from September 2019 - September 2024). Let us now begin the comparative analysis between GBDC and the 14 other BDC peers. Analysis of GBDC: Using Table 11 above as a reference, GBDC declared a base dividend of $0.39 per share while declaring special periodic dividends totaling $0.11 per share for Q2 2024. This was a total $0.04 per share increase when compared to the prior quarter. GBDC’s stock price traded at $15.67 per share on 6/14/2024. When calculated, this was a TTM dividend yield (including special periodic dividends when applicable) of 11.55%, an annual forward yield (excluding special periodic dividends when applicable) to GBDC’s stock price as of 6/14/2024 of 9.96%, and an annual forward yield (excluding special periodic dividends when applicable) to the company’s NAV as of 6/30/2024 of 10.18%. When comparing each yield percentage to GBDC’s BDC peers within this analysis, the company’s TTM yield based on its stock price as of 6/14/2024 and the company’s annual forward yield based on its stock price as of 6/14/2024 was near (less than 0.50%) average while its annual forward yield to its NAV as of 6/30/2024 was slightly (at or greater than 0.50% but less than 1.00%) below average. When combining this type of data with various other analytical metrics, I correctly projected GBDC had a very high (90%) probability of a stable - slightly increasing base dividend per share rate for Q2 2024 while continuing to declare a relatively unchanged total special periodic dividend (which ultimately came to fruition).  To provide readers several additional, important metrics to consider regarding each BDC’s dividend sustainability, Table 12 is provided below. Again, it should be noted there are additional dividend sustainability metrics that I perform for each company. However, those metrics are more elaborate in detail and require additional analysis/discussion which I believe is beyond the scope of this particular article. That type of analysis would be better suited when analyzing each company on a “standalone” basis versus a sector comparison article. I have discussed some of these more elaborate metrics in prior ARCC, GAIN, MAIN, NEWTEK Business Services Corp. (NEWT), OCSL, Prospect Capital Corp. (PSEC), SLRC, and TSLX articles (see my profile page for links to prior articles regarding those companies). Table 12 – Several Additional Dividend Sustainability Metrics (6/30/2024 Versus 6/30/2023) The REIT Forum (Source: Table created entirely by myself, partially using data obtained from the SEC’s EDGAR Database [link provided below Table 11]) Using Table 12 above as a reference, a very important metric to consider regarding a BDC’s long-term dividend sustainability is each company’s cumulative undistributable taxable income (“UTI”) outstanding shares of common stock ratio (highly valuable “forward-looking” data). Cumulative UTI is “built up”/retained net investment company taxable income (“ICTI”) in excess of previously paid dividend distributions since an entity’s initial public offering (“IPO”) or after the most recent tax year when an entity overdistributed its ICTI with no such surplus to offset the difference. This figure/metric has been covered, at length, in previous BDC dividend sustainability articles. To calculate this ratio, I take a company’s cumulative UTI and divide this amount by its outstanding shares of common stock. The higher this ratio is, the more positive the results regarding a company’s future dividend sustainability. Since most BDC peers have continued to gradually net increase their outstanding shares of common stock, this ratio shows if a company has been able to increase its cumulative UTI balance by a similar proportion. GBDC had a cumulative UTI coverage of outstanding shares of common stock ratio of 0.29 as of 6/30/2024 (see blue reference “C”). When calculated, this was a (0.07) decrease during the TTM (nothing too alarming). Regarding this very minor decrease, I would point out GBDC has distributed special periodic dividends totaling $0.29 per share over the TTM. This also factors in GBDC’s base dividend increase from $0.33 per share during Q2 2023 to $0.39 per share during Q2 2024. If these events did not occur, GBDC’s cumulative UTI coverage of outstanding shares of common ratio would have modestly - notably increased. GBDC continued to have a minor - modest net ICTI surplus to distribute over the foreseeable future. GBDC’s ratio, both as of 6/30/2023 and 6/30/2024, was slightly less attractive versus the mean of 0.55 and 0.59 of the 15 BDC peers within this analysis, respectively. In addition, I would point out GBDC has not decreased the company’s base dividend per share rate since Q2 2020. Yes, GBDC has not reduced the company’s quarterly dividend per share rate for 4+ years (while periodically declaring minor - modest special periodic dividends). During this time, GBDC has increased the company’s base dividend from $0.29 per share to $0.39 per share. For example, since Q3 2019, MFIC, FSK, TCPC, and TPVG have declared a net decrease to each company’s dividend (excluding any current special periodic dividends) of (16%), (16%), (6%), and (17%), respectively (includes accounting for MFIC’s and FSK’s reverse stock split of 1:3 and 1:4, respectively; excludes special periodic dividend classifications). In comparison, even when considering GBDC’s Q2 2020 base quarterly dividend decrease, the company has net increased its base quarterly dividend by 22% since Q3 2019. I believe that is a very important point to consider. In addition, GBDC’s management team continues to imply the company’s current quarterly base dividend per share rate, at worst, will remain unchanged over the foreseeable future (currently at $0.39 per share). There also remains the possibility for continued minor special periodic dividends being declared over the foreseeable future to release some of the company’s minor - modest cumulative UTI balance (to remain in compliance with the Internal Revenue Code (“IRC”). That said, to remain non-bias, I expect GBDC’s special periodic dividends to net decline over time. This will be the general trend in the BDC during a lower/declining interest rate/yield environment.  In my opinion, another important metric to consider regarding a BDC’s dividend sustainability is a company’s weighted average annualized yield on its debt investments (asset side of the balance sheet). GBDC had a weighted average annualized yield on the company’s debt investments of 12.00% as of 6/30/2024 (see blue reference “D”). This percentage remained slightly below the mean of 12.78% of the 15 BDC peers within this analysis. GBDC’s weighted average annualized yield on the company’s debt investments increased 0.40% during the TTM without any material change in portfolio characteristics. Outside 1 outlier, this was fairly consistent with the overall trend within the BDC sector due to the fairly recent very quick increase in the U.S. London Interbank Offered Rate (“LIBOR”)/Standard Overnight Financing Rate (“SOFR”)/PRIME (various debt investments “reset” higher) partially offset by a notable tightening of spreads over the past several years. Broadly speaking, this metric has likely plateaued during Q4 2023 and will likely slightly – modestly decline during 2024 - 2025 (nothing too alarming though). In addition, it should be noted the higher LIBOR/SOFR/PRIME rose, the more underlying credit risk (non-accruals) needs to be respected (and monitored). This will have heightened importance during 2024 - 2025. I personally do not see spreads within this specific sector getting much tighter. In fact, a gradual widening is inevitable in my professional opinion. To use an analogy, I believe there is a lot of “tension” on this particular rubber band. It cannot be “stretched” too much further (BDC spreads would not tighten too much further). There will eventually be a widening of spreads (release the rubber band’s tension). When spreads widen, asset pricing/valuations decrease so readers need to consider this impact on NAV. It takes time for these impacts to be felt across broader markets. These notions have already been taken into consideration when it comes to projecting dividend per share rates and recommendation ranges provided towards the end of this article (already “embedded” into all modeling through calendar Q3 2025).  The next metric shown in Table 12 is each BDC’s proportion of debt investments with floating interest rates (asset side of the balance sheet; additional forward-looking data). GBDC’s proportion of debt investments with floating interest rates was 99.20% as of 6/30/2024 (see blue reference “E”). This high floating-rate percentage was very beneficial during the fairly recent rapid rising interest rate environment, as GBDC previously quickly moved above the company’s weighted average cash LIBOR floor. While several BDC peers publicly disclose this figure, the majority of companies do not. Since I/my team personally calculate/confirm each BDC’s weighted average cash LIBOR floor each quarter (which is typically very time-consuming), I believe this is a strategic advantage to my/our service. As such, I have decided not to disclose these percentages (other services could simply “poach” this valuable information with no effort). This data, when combined with the other factors/metrics presented in this article (including several other factors not publicly disclosed), is used to determine dividend sustainability probabilities later in the article and project future NII per share amounts. This is 1 of the main reasons why I/we have beaten the institutional analysts’ consensus average in 46 out of the past 49 quarters within the combined mREIT and BDC sectors regarding earnings projections (when combining all fully covered sector peers). The last metric shown in Table 12 above is each BDC’s weighted average interest rate on all debt outstanding (liability side of the balance sheet). GBDC had a weighted average interest rate of 6.01% on the company’s outstanding borrowings as of 6/30/2024 (excludes commitment fees and loan issuance costs; see blue reference “F”). This compared to a weighted average interest rate of 4.92% as of 3/31/2024. This large quarterly increase was directly in relation to the recent completed merger with Golub Capital BDC 3, Inc. (GBDC 3). This private, affiliated BDC simply had a higher cost of capital when compared to GBDC. In particular, most of GBDC 3’s outstanding borrowings were floating-rate in nature. During the recent/current high-interest rate environment, this simply equated to a higher cost of capital. That said, post-merger, I anticipate GBDC will take measures to reduce the company’s weighted average interest rate in the coming quarters (especially regarding GBDC 3’s existing credit facility and debt securitization). When compared to the 15 BDC peers within this analysis, GBDC had a slightly above average weighted average interest rate on all debt outstanding. As of 6/30/2024, 53.57% of GBDC’s debt outstanding bore floating-rates (credit facilities and debt securitizations) while 46.43% of the company’s debt outstanding bore fixed-rates (unsecured notes). I believe taking a “snapshot” of each BDC’s weighted average interest rate on all debt outstanding allows readers to better understand which companies will experience generalized characteristics in the future (thus impacting future net investment income [NII]/TI). Once again using Table 11 as a reference, GBDC declared a base dividend of $0.39 per share while declaring special periodic dividends totaling $0.10 per share for Q2 2024. This was an unchanged base dividend and ($0.01) per share decrease in total special periodic dividends when compared to the prior quarter. GBDC’s stock price traded at $14.76 per share on 9/6/2024. When calculated, this was a TTM dividend yield (including special periodic dividends when applicable) of 12.80%, an annual forward yield (excluding special periodic dividends when applicable) to GBDC’s stock price as of 9/6/2024 of 10.57%, and an annual forward yield (excluding special periodic dividends when applicable) to my projected CURRENT NAV of 10.33%. When comparing each yield percentage to GBDC’s BDC peers within this analysis, the company’s TTM yield based on its stock price as of 9/6/2024 and the company’s annual forward yield based on its stock price as of 9/6/2024 remained near average while its annual forward yield to my projected CURRENT NAV remained slightly below average. These percentages are not surprising when it comes to GBDC’s dividend sustainability due to the company’s weighted average annualized yield on debt investments and weighted average interest rate on debt outstanding (amongst the other factors discussed earlier). Various Comparisons Between GBDC and the Company’s 14 BDC Peers in Ranking Order: Investing Group Feature A majority of BDC peers have seen a relatively unchanged – very minor increase to each company’s cumulative UTI ratio over the past ~1 year. A handful of BDC peers have experienced a minor decrease (nothing alarming yet). Conclusions Drawn (PART 2): This article has compared GBDC and 14 other BDC peers in regards to recent dividend per share rates, yield percentages, and several other highly detailed (and useful) dividend sustainability metrics. This article also discussed GBDC’s dividend sustainability through Q1 2025. Using Table 11 above as a reference, the following were the recent dividend per share rates and yield percentages for GBDC: GBDC: Base dividend of $0.39 per share and special periodic dividends totaling $0.10 per share for calendar Q3 2024; 12.80% TTM dividend yield (when including special periodic dividends); 10.57% annual forward yield (when excluding special periodic dividends) to the company’s stock price as of 9/6/2024; and 10.33% annual forward yield (when excluding special periodic dividends) to my projected CURRENT NAV. Since GBDC had the most positive trailing 24-month weighted average annualized yield increase on the company’s debt investments (assets) when compared to the sector peers within this analysis (a positive catalyst/trend), a very low weighted average cash LIBOR/SOFR/PRIME floor (fairly recently a positive catalyst/trend; becomes a negative factor/trend when LIBOR/SOFR/PRIME NOTABLY decreases [only a gradual decrease is anticipated over the foreseeable future]), a minor - modest cumulative UTI balance (a neutral catalyst/trend), a very slightly above average interest rate on all debt outstanding (liabilities; a negative factor/trend), and a slightly above average percentage of floating interest rate debt investments (fairly recently a positive catalyst/trend; becomes a negative factor/trend when LIBOR/SOFR/PRIME NOTABLY decreases [only a gradual decrease is anticipated over the foreseeable future]), I continue to believe the company should have an annual forward yield to its NAV near - slightly above the average of the 15 BDC peers within this analysis. When combining this data with various other analytical metrics not discussed within this specific article (including projected non-accrual rates during 2024 - 2025 [anticipating a minor increase]; some factors were covered in PART 1), I believe the likelihood of GBDC having a stable base quarterly dividend of $0.39 per share through, at the least, Q1 2025 is very high (90% probability). I also believe GBDC will continue to declare a special periodic dividend in a range of $0.05 - $0.15 per share for Q4 2024. Looking back to prior dividend projections, more recently, this analysis correctly identified the growing probability a majority of sector peers would report an increase in monthly/quarterly dividends and various special periodic dividends during 2022 – Q3 2024. My BUY, SELL, or HOLD Recommendation: From the analysis provided above, including additional factors not discussed within this article, I currently rate GBDC as a SELL when I believe the company’s stock price is trading at or greater than a 12.5% premium to my projected CURRENT NAV (NAV as of 9/6/2024; $15.10 per share), a HOLD when trading at greater than a 2.5% premium but less than a 12.5% premium to my projected CURRENT NAV, and a BUY when trading at or less than a 2.5% premium to my projected CURRENT NAV. Therefore, with a closing price of $14.76 per common share as of 9/6/2024, I currently rate GBDC as UNDERVALUED from a stock price perspective. As such, I currently believe GBDC is a BUY recommendation.  My current price target for GBDC is approximately $17.00 per share. This is currently the price where my recommendation would change to a SELL. The current price where my BUY recommendation would change to a HOLD is approximately $15.50 per share. Put another way, the following are my CURRENT BUY, SELL, or HOLD per share recommendation ranges for GBDC (our Investing Group subscribers get this type of data on all 15 BDC stocks I currently cover on a weekly basis): $17.00 per share or above = SELL (Overvalued) $15.51 - $16.99 per share = HOLD (Appropriately Valued) $13.96 - $15.50 per share = BUY (Undervalued) $13.95 per share or below = STRONG BUY (Notably Undervalued) Most of the 15 BDC peers I currently cover should have a stable dividend for calendar Q4 2024 (or each applicable company’s next set of dividend declarations). For some select BDC peers with a higher/growing cumulative UTI balance, this includes the possibility of a special periodic dividend (exact ranges/amounts for each covered BDC peer provided to subscribers). My Personal GBDC Past + Current Stock Disclosures: The following are my GBDC past and current stock disclosures and total returns since I have been writing on Seeking Alpha (since 2013): Table 18 – GBDC Past + Current Stock Disclosures/Returns The REIT Forum Source: Taken Directly from the REIT Forum’s © Spreadsheets/Data Final Note: All trades/investments I have performed over the past 8+ years have been disclosed to readers in “real time” (that day at the latest) via either the StockTalks feature of Seeking Alpha or, more recently, the “live chat” feature of our Investing Group (which cannot be changed/altered). Through these resources, readers can look up all my prior disclosures (buys/sells) regarding all companies I cover here at Seeking Alpha (see my profile page for a list of all stocks covered). Through StockTalk disclosures and/or the live chat feature of the REIT Forum, at the end of August 2024 I had an unrealized/realized gain “success rate” of 90.8% and a total return (includes dividends received) success rate of 96.1% out of 76 total past and present mREIT and BDC positions (updated monthly; multiple purchases/sales in one stock count as one overall position until fully closed out). I encourage other Seeking Alpha contributors to provide real-time buy and sell updates for their readers/subscribers which would ultimately lead to greater transparency/credibility. Beginning in January 2020, I transitioned all my real-time purchase and sale disclosures solely to members of the REIT Forum. All applicable public articles will still have my “main ticker” purchase and sale disclosures (just not real-time alerts). Understanding My/Our Valuation Methodology Regarding mREIT Common and BDC Stocks: The basic \"premise\" around my/our recommendations in the mREIT common and BDC sectors is value. Regarding operational performance over the long term, there are above average, average, and below average mREIT and BDC stocks. That said, better-performing mREIT and BDC peers can be expensive to own, as well as being cheap. Just because a well-performing stock outperforms the company’s sector peers over the long-term, this does not mean this stock should be owned at any price. As with any stock, there is a price range where the valuation is cheap, a price where the valuation is expensive, and a price where the valuation is appropriate. The same holds true with all mREIT common and BDC peers. As such, regarding my/our investing methodology, each mREIT common and BDC peer has their own unique BUY, SELL, or HOLD recommendation range (relative to estimated CURRENT BV/NAV). The better-performing mREITs and BDCs typically have a recommendation range at a premium to BV/NAV (varying percentages based on overall outperformance) and vice versa with the average/underperforming mREITs and BDCs (typically at a discount to estimated CURRENT BV/NAV). Each company’s recommendation range is \"pegged\" to estimated CURRENT BV/NAV because this way subscribers/readers can track when each mREIT and BDC peer moves within the assigned recommendation ranges (daily if desired). That said, the underlying reasoning why I/we place each mREIT and BDC recommendation range at a different premium or (discount) to estimated CURRENT BV/NAV is based on roughly 15-20 catalysts which include both macroeconomic catalysts/factors and company-specific catalysts/factors (both positive and negative). This investing strategy is not for all market participants. For instance, not likely a “good fit” for extremely passive investors. For example, investors holding a position in a particular stock, no matter the price, for say a period of 5+ years. However, as shown throughout my articles written here at Seeking Alpha since 2013, in the vast majority of instances I have been able to enhance my personal total returns and/or minimize my personal total losses from specifically implementing this particular investing valuation methodology. I hope this provides some added clarity/understanding for new subscribers/readers regarding my valuation methodology utilized in the mREIT common and BDC sectors.  Each investor's BUY, SELL, or HOLD decision is based on one's risk tolerance, time horizon, and dividend income goals. My personal recommendation will not fit each reader’s current investing strategy. The factual information provided within this article is intended to help assist readers when it comes to investing strategies/decisions. 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