Mobileye: Bright Future, But Intel Overhang Is A Problem

seekingalpha09-11

Mobileye Global Inc.'s stock has plummeted due to poor performance, and the Lidar development news isn't necessarily helpful.Intel's rumored share sale is a major overhang, with the chip giant needing...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2466642174?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1668813458/image_1668813458.jpg","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2024-09-11 00:04","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","id":"2466642174","market":"nz","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Mobileye: Bright Future, But Intel Overhang Is A Problem","media":"seekingalpha","content":"<div>\n<p>Mobileye Global Inc.'s stock has plummeted due to poor performance, and the Lidar development news isn't necessarily helpful.Intel's rumored share sale is a major overhang, with the chip giant needing...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720213-mobileye-bright-future-but-intel-overhang-is-a-problem\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Mobileye: Bright Future, But Intel Overhang Is A Problem</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMobileye: Bright Future, But Intel Overhang Is A Problem\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-11 00:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720213-mobileye-bright-future-but-intel-overhang-is-a-problem><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Mobileye Global Inc.'s stock has plummeted due to poor performance, and the Lidar development news isn't necessarily helpful.Intel's rumored share sale is a major overhang, with the chip giant needing...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720213-mobileye-bright-future-but-intel-overhang-is-a-problem\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4141","symbol_name":"半导体产品","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4720213-mobileye-bright-future-but-intel-overhang-is-a-problem","article_id":"2466642174","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1668813458/image_1668813458.jpg"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2466642174","pubTimestamp":1725984295,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Mobileye Global Inc.'s stock has plummeted due to poor performance, and the Lidar development news isn't necessarily helpful.Intel's rumored share sale is a major overhang, with the chip giant needing","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","INVZ":"Innoviz Technologies Ltd.","LU0321505868.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Dividend Maximiser A Dis SGD","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU0321505439.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Dividend Maximiser A Acc SGD","LU0081259029.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - TECH OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","BK4124":"机动车零配件与设备","BK4562":"SPAC上市公司","MBLY":"Mobileye Global Inc.","BK4529":"IDC概念","LAZR":"Luminar Technologies, Inc.","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4157":"电子设备和仪器","INTC":"英特尔","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4537":"激光雷达概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4588":"碎股"},"translate_title":"Mobileye：前景光明，但英特尔悬垂是个问题","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MBLY":1,"LAZR":1,"INVZ":1,"INTC":0.7},"content_text":"Mobileye Global Inc.'s stock has plummeted due to poor performance, and the Lidar development news isn't necessarily helpful.Intel's rumored share sale is a major overhang, with the chip giant needing cash amid struggles in its foundry business and AI market miss.Mobileye Global stock is fairly valued at 5x forward sales, but significant improvement in business performance is needed before considering it a Buy.   Just_Super Mobileye Global Inc. (NASDAQ:MBLY) was once a promising auto tech company, but the investment thesis has completely unraveled in the last year. The stock has been crushed, and now Intel (INTC) is rumored to be exploring dumping their large position. My investment thesis is more Neutral on the stock now with the lower valuation, but major headwinds still exist. Source: Finviz Horrible News Flow Just in September alone, Mobileye has canceled internal Lidar development and Intel is rumored to be looking to sell their 88% position. The Lidar development can be spun either way and is a positive in reducing expenses, while the Intel news is a massive overhang on the stock, whether true or not. The Lidar news is a mixed message. The auto tech company is cutting 100 employees by year-end while forecasting Lidar R&D costs for 2024 at $60 million with $5 million in stock-based compensation. In essence, Mobileye should cut the R&D costs by about $60 million going forward. The company spent $256 million on R&D in Q2 '24 and $499 million in the 1H. Mobileye was on pace for ~$1 billion in R&D expense, so the cuts only amount to 6% of spending. The negative is that Mobileye wasn't able to develop compelling technology internally, while the news is apparently suggesting that the company can utilize external Lidars at affordable prices in the future. Since the company points to next-generation FMCW Lidar, this could suggest plans to move forward with using Innoviz Technologies (INVZ) after announcing a partnership back in early 2023. The potential opportunity is for Mobileye to acquire a beaten down Lidar player, with Innoviz only having a valuation of $100 million now while the leader in the space, Luminar Technologies (LAZR) is down to a valuation of $400 million. Mobileye has a $10 billion valuation in a sign of the disconnect, and the potential to snap up a Lidar technology leader and reduce competition in the space in one swoop. The major negative is that Intel is rumored to be looking to sell shares. The chip giant is under a major cash crunch trying to develop a foundry business, while chip sales are struggling to produce positive cash flows now due to missing out on the massive AI opportunity. Intel spun off Mobileye back in late 2022, and shareholders have always feared the chip giant would ultimately unload more shares. Intel now needs the cash, but Mobileye is down $20 from the average prices just in mid-2024 and some $30 from the levels in 2023. Internal Struggles The ultimate issue facing Mobileye is the horrible results in the last year. The company came into the year expecting 30% growth and highlighting a large order book, but an inventory correction followed by macro weakness has harmed the business. Mobileye recently reported Q2 revenues were down 3% YoY while again slashing guidance for 2024 to only $1.64 billion from a prior revenue of $1.895 billion. The company blamed the challenges in the macro environment in China, but one has to wonder if the ADAS company isn't losing out to competition in the country. Overall, Mobileye reduced EyeQ sales estimates by 3.5 million units for the 2H. The auto tech company is only about cash flow breakeven now after the weak results, but analysts still forecast this major increase in sales for 2025 back to $2.2 billion. Remember, 2023 sales hit a record of nearly $2.1 billion. The company still suggests orders are strong, with future revenues far above the current revenue levels. Mobileye entered the year expecting sales to top $2 billion while the 2023 design wins were $7.4 billion and the auto tech company forecast 2024 numbers should top those levels due to SuperVision wins with higher ASPs. Source: Mobileye Q2'24 earnings release Regardless, the big problem with Mobileye entering this year was the expensive valuation multiple of the stock. Mobileye traded at multiples topping 12x forward EV/S, while the stock still trades around 5x forward sales targets of $2 billion. Data by YCharts The stock is probably fairly valued here due to the potential of advanced ADAS and autonomous technologies, offset by a slew of recent disappointments. Ultimately, though, the big headwind is Intel potentially unloading a massive amount of stock, with the current float below 100 million of the 800+ million shares outstanding and mostly controlled by Intel. Takeaway The key investor takeaway is that Mobileye has fallen 60% since our previous research, but the stock still isn't a Buy. At best, our investment call is Neutral on the stock, and we are looking for Intel to potentially unload a large batch of shares to set up the bottoming process. Mobileye still has a promising future in ADAS and AVs, but the company needs to turn around the business before the stock is a Buy.  Editor's Note: This article covers one or more microcap stocks. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"Business Data,analysis","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2466642174"}