Gundlach says the Fed still a bit behind the curve after large 50bp rate cut

seekingalpha09-19

DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said Wednesday he wasn’t surprised by the Federal Reserve’s big rate cut of 50 basis points, but more cuts are needed as the U.S. economy may already be contracting. ...

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The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday in an 11-1 vote decided to slash the fed funds rate to 4.75% to 5%, the first rate cut since the pandemic-era. Gundlach this week said he believed the Fed, led by Chair Jerome Powell, would deliver a half-point rate reduction, reportedly telling a conference in California the Fed was “behind the curve” as job layoffs indicated the economy was already in recession.  The Fed is still “little bit” behind the curve, with some bond yields running in the 3.50% range, Gundlach told CNBC on Wednesday. He said seeing a drop in the 2-year Treasury yield (US2Y) by more than 50 basis points since July 31 is what likely spurred his confidence that the Fed would cut rates by a half-point.  “I think [Powell] felt good that he was now more in sync with the bond market. The bond market is very flat in yields in two years, out to five years, even 10 years - it's right about 350,” he said. That level “suggests that the base case is that the terminal rate for the Fed funds rate … is 350,” the bond-market specialist said. “I think [Powell] was uncomfortably out of sync with what was going on,” Gundlach said. See Seeking Alpha's Bonds Data page.  Trouble signs in the economy include high interest rates on credit cards, Gundlach said. “The level of debt on the consumer is very high. I expect to see weaker economic data in coming reports. I still think there's a good shot that the history books will say September ‘24 was a start of a recession,” Gundlach said.  U.S. Treasury yields edged up Wednesday afternoon, as traders sold bonds following the rate decision. The shorter-end 2-year yield (US2Y) was up 1 basis point at 3.63%. The 10-Year Treasury yield (US10Y) ticked up by 5 basis points to 3.71%. Here are some Treasury ETFs investors can monitor: (TLT), (TLH), (IEF), and (SGOV).  Some bond ETFs: (AGG), (BND), (MBB), (JNK), and (TIP).","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"policyRegulatory","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2468016566"}