PRAGUE, Sept 18 (Reuters) - Central Europe's currencies held firm on Wednesday, as along with other global markets, they weighed the odds of a super-sized U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut later in the day.
A weaker dollar against the euro, central Europe's reference currency, gave support to the region's currencies, as markets waited to see if the Fed would kick off its easing cycle with a cut of 50 basis points.
What it decides could influence central Europe's policymakers that started their easing cycles over the last year.
The Polish central bank has taken a long pause after initial rate cuts a year ago and Romania's central bank made a slow start.
But the Hungarian and Czech central banks have steadily cut interest rates, although they are slowing the pace now. Both are due to meet on policy next week.
ING said the Fed decision will have more of an impact for Hungary.
"Our economists see a 25-bp rate cut as the baseline, which, if the Fed is dovish, could promise more rate cuts in the future, leaving the forint exposed," ING said in a note.
The forint ticked up less than 0.1% to 394.35 to the euro, caught in the middle of the range of 390-390 in which it has hovered since June. The Czech crown added 0.2% to 25.06 per euro, gaining a second straight day as it inches back toward the psychological 25.00 level.
Markets are betting on another 25-bp Czech rate cut after the central bank slowed its pace of easing in August.
Czech central banker Jan Kubicek told Reuters this week he favoured another quarter-point rate cut this month given soft economic data, a slightly firmer currency, near-target inflation and lower wage growth.
"For risk assets, including the crown, the Fed decision will be a source of volatility and so we are counting on greater fluctuations," CSOB said.
In Poland, the zloty was flat at 4.271 to the euro. Romania's leu was also little changed at 4.975 per euro.
Stock markets drifted with Prague and Warsaw indices easing a touch and Budapest little changed, in line with steadied global equity markets waiting on the Fed.
CEE SNAPSHOT AT
MARKETS 1131
CET
CURRENCIES
Latest Previo Daily Change
us
trade close change in 2024
Czech <EURCZK 25.0600 25.100 +0.16% -1.43%
crown => 0
Hungary <EURHUF 394.3500 394.55 +0.05% -2.83%
forint => 00
Polish <EURPLN 4.2710 4.2710 +0.00% +1.72%
zloty =>
Romania <EURRON 4.9750 4.9740 -0.02% -0.01%
n leu =>
Serbian <EURRSD 117.0300 117.07 +0.03% +0.18%
dinar => 00
Note: calculated from 1800 CET
daily
change
Latest Previo Daily Change
us
close change in 2024
Prague 1569.45 1574.2 -0.31% +10.99
900 %
Budapes 72683.56 72685. -0.00% +19.90
t 08 %
Warsaw <.WIG20 2335.40 2334.8 +0.02% -0.32%
> 6
Buchare 17498.88 17507. -0.05% +13.84
st 85 %
Spread Daily
vs Bund change
in
Czech spread
Republi
c
<CZ2YT= 3.2500 0.0090 +101bps +0bps
2-year RR>
<CZ5YT= 3.3710 -0.033 +132bps -5bps
5-year RR> 0
<CZ10YT 3.6950 0.0130 +152bps -1bps
10-year =RR>
Poland
<PL2YT= 4.6350 -0.029 +239bps -4bps
2-year RR> 0
<PL5YT= 4.9950 -0.006 +294bps -3bps
5-year RR> 0
<PL10YT 5.3250 0.0110 +315bps -2bps
10-year =RR>
FORWARD RATE
AGREEMENTS
3x6 6x9 9x12 3M
interba
nk
Czech <CZKFRA 3.83 3.44 3.11 4.31
Rep ><PRIBO
R=>
Hungary <HUFFRA 6.08 6.07 5.60 6.46
><BUBOR
=>
Poland <PLNFRA 5.76 5.30 4.68 5.85
><WIBOR
=>
Note: are for ask prices
FRA
quotes
************************************************
**************
(Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague and Pawel Florkiewicz in Warsaw; editing by Barbara Lewis)
((jason.hovet@thomsonreuters.com))
((For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets: All emerging market news Spot FX rates Eastern Europe spot FX Middle East spot FX Asia spot FX Latin America spot FX Other news and reports World central bank news Economic Data Guide Official rates Emerging Diary Top events Diaries Diaries Index ))
Comments