U.S. tariffs may be sticking around, and defensive sectors can help mitigate the risk: MS

seekingalpha09-20

Tariffs on imported goods may still be part of the U.S. economic landscape under the U.S. president coming into office in 2025, and three sectors could help soften related pressure on investors, ...

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Broadly, the tariff regime imposed by former President Donald Trump has continued under President Joe Biden, MS said in a report. Vice President Kamala Harris during her current presidential campaign has voiced disapproval of additional tariffs, but “has not expressed a desire to change the current tariff structure,” Monica Guerra, head of U.S. policy at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said. Guerra said that indicates trade and tariff policies under Harris may stay largely consistent with the Biden administration's. Trump has said he wants to impose further tariffs if he wins back the White House.  “Should tariffs rise and/or GDP experience negative pressure, we encourage investors to consider defensive stocks such as consumer staples, health care, utilities and select retailers with less exposure to offshore production costs,” the investment strategist said in Wednesday's report. She did not specify stock names.  The suggested S&P 500 (SP500) sectors, considered as defensive, have posted double-digit gains during 2024.  Trump’s plan to impose tariffs of 60% on China and a 10% universal tariff would add 2.5% to inflation and reduce GDP by 0.5% in the first two years of enactment, according to an MS assessment, Guerra said.  The Trump-Biden tariffs put $200-$300 in added, average annual costs on U.S. households since 2018, MS said, citing the Tax Foundation, an independent tax policy nonprofit.  Looking into market performance, solar and steel stocks were hurt in 2018 and 2019 by the imposition of tariffs on solar and steel imports. Guerra noted both the Invesco Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN) and the VanEck Steel ETF (NYSEARCA:SLX) declined by more than 11% in the first six months following the tariff enactments. The Biden administration has expanded tariff rates on solar cells, electric vehicles, and other industries, MS said.   In the equity market so far in 2024:  S&P 500 (SP500) Utilities Sector +23%, and the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (NYSEARCA:XLU) +23.2% Consumer Staples sector +16.4%, and the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (NYSEARCA:XLP) +14.9% Health Care sector +13.6%, and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (NYSEARCA:XLV) +14.3% S&P 500 (SP500) +19.8% Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) -21.9% VanEck Steel ETF (SLX) -7.9%","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"policyRegulatory","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2468064296"}