Commerzbank cuts year-end Brent oil forecast to $75/bbl as demand continues to lose momentum

seekingalpha09-19

Oil prices ticked higher on Thursday, after a large interest rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve, and as investors assessed potential supply disruptions amid rising tensions in the Middle East. ...

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Commerzbank has however, revised its oil price forecast for the end of the year significantly downwards and now expects the price of Brent to be only $75 vs $80 estimated earlier. It also revised the forecast for 2025 downwards by $10. The brokerage's year-end forecast for 2025 consequently falls to $80. Brent oil futures (CO1:COM) came under severe pressure at the beginning of September, briefly slipping below the $70 per barrel mark for the first time since the end of 2021. Although the price has since recovered somewhat, it is still lower than at the beginning of the year.  The price decline since the summer is primarily due to a worsening demand outlook, Commerzbank analysts noted, saying, despite the anything but rosy demand outlook, OPEC+ still intends to stick to its plan to gradually withdraw the voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day that have been in place since the beginning of the year. \"The sharp price decline at the beginning of the month has merely led to the start being postponed by two months to December. However, a glance at the implied market balance for the coming year shows that there is no leeway for an expansion of OPEC+ supply,\" analysts added. \"On the contrary, demand for oil from OPEC+ will actually decline next year, as oil supply outside OPEC+ is likely to increase much more than global demand.\"  In its monthly report, the International Energy Agency said it expects demand will rise by less than 1M bbl/day in both 2024 and 2025, weighed by a continued slowdown in Chinese consumption. \"Weak growth in China, following the post-COVID surge of 2023, now significantly drags on global gains,\" the IEA said. ETFs: (NYSEARCA:USO), (NYSEARCA:BNO), (UCO), (SCO), (USL), (DBO), (DRIP), (GUSH), (USOI) Meanwhile, for the first time since 2011, there were speculative net short positions in Brent in the last reporting week (as of September 10). \"This resulted in a change from net long positions of 24.9 thousand contracts to net short positions of 33.7 thousand contracts within a single week. This is highly unusual and indicates extremely negative market sentiment\", the brokerage said. Gold prices (XAUUSD:CUR), also rose on Thursday, but pulled back from its record high and is currently trading +1.23% higher at $2,590.62.   Gold on the most-traded December contract initially climbed 0.7% to ~$2,610/oz following the Fed's announcement, but then swung into negative territory as Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in his press conference following the rate cut announcement that no one should see the move as a \"new pace.\" On platinum (XPTUSD:CUR), Commerzbank said, the fact that the price has slipped back below the $1,000 per troy ounce mark could be related to the considerable ETF outflows of recent days. According to Bloomberg data, platinum ETF holdings have fallen by more than 120,000 ounces since the middle of last week. As a result, net inflows since the beginning of the year narrowed to 160,000 ounces. \"Should the ETF outflows continue, the remaining inflows would also be gone in a relatively short time.\" ETFs: (GLD), (GDX), (GDXJ), (IAU), (NUGT), (PHYS), (GLDM), (AAAU), (SGOL), (BAR), (OUNZ), (SLV), (PSLV), (SIVR), (SIL), (SILJ)       More on oil,  Brent Crude - Oil Slides Below $70 A Barrel, First Time Since December 2021 U.S. Oil Production Is Slowing, The Ramifications Will Be Significant Oil Demand Worries And Natural Gas Supply Risks Crude oil little changed after Fed rate cut, U.S. storage report Oil falls to $70 despite pager attack and rising Middle East tensions","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2468263521"}