Economic Resilience To Finish The Third Quarter

seekingalpha09-24

The S&P 500 reached a new all-time high, with the market broadening and Fed officials supporting further rate cuts, suggesting a positive outlook.The Purchasing Managers Index, or PMI, indicates ...

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The bull market continues to broaden, and commentary from Fed officials wasn't a headwind yesterday. That is a welcome change. Those who spoke basically endorsed another half point of rate cuts by year-end, which implies 25 basis points at the November and December meetings. Given that the first cut was outsized, I expect we will see a measured and gradual approach. There should be quarter-point rate cuts from here on out at each meeting until we fall to a neutral rate of approximately 3% at some point next year. That positive rate of change in policy should pave the way to our soft landing and set the stage for a rebound in growth next summer. Economic growth should be the focus moving forward. Finviz In my view, one of the most important real-time indicators of economic activity comes from the S&P Global survey of executives at manufacturing and services companies during the middle of each month. This \"flash\" survey constitutes the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for both sectors with readings above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 indicating contraction. The story remained the same in September, as it has all summer. Overall business activity remains robust to finish the third quarter, led by strength in services, which is offsetting continued weakness in manufacturing, resulting in a composite index reading of 54.4. Trading Economics The trend in the index continues to reflect a positive rate of change since the fall of 2022, shortly after the rate of inflation peaked at 9.1%. There has been a slight moderation in activity in advance of the unknowns of the Presidential election for obvious reasons. Companies are hesitant to invest and plan until they have a better idea of the policies that will be in place in 2025. Regardless, I expect the manufacturing side of the survey, which is dwarfed by services, to start reflecting growth again in early 2025. Lower mortgage rates should help resurrect the housing sector, and lower borrowing costs should stimulate demand for durable goods. That will be welcome as services are bound to cool some in the coming months. Trading Economics  We are finally in a period when good news for the economy means good news for stocks because inflation is at bay and an easing cycle has begun. That means the focus should be on looking for signs of weakness that indicate a rate of change may be upon us that is moving in the wrong direction. That isn't happening today, and it may not happen for a very long time, but when things are going exceedingly well, it is time to raise our antennas for what could go wrong.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"Economic Data,analysis","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.28.1","shortVersion":"4.28.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2469972413"}