The winners & losers on market if negative gearing were gone

The Market Herald09-27

Negative gearing has resurfaced in political discussions, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese suggesting that the Treasury might be reconsidering this long-standing property tax incentive. However, ...

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe winners & losers on market if negative gearing were gone\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-27 11:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://themarketonline.com.au/the-winners-losers-on-market-if-negative-gearing-were-gone-2024-09-27/><strong>The Market Herald</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Negative gearing has resurfaced in political discussions, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese suggesting that the Treasury might be reconsidering this long-standing property tax incentive. \nHowever, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://themarketonline.com.au/the-winners-losers-on-market-if-negative-gearing-were-gone-2024-09-27/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"PDN.AU","symbol_name":"PALADIN ENERGY LTD","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://themarketonline.com.au/the-winners-losers-on-market-if-negative-gearing-were-gone-2024-09-27/","article_id":"2470177481","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2470177481","pubTimestamp":1727407620,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"markerherald_stock","name":"The Market Herald"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Negative gearing has resurfaced in political discussions, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese suggesting that the Treasury might be reconsidering this long-standing property tax incentive.However, Labor’s bruising loss in the 2019 election still lingers, making it difficult to envision the government taking the gamble of upsetting property investors—particularly with the current housing crisis that we’re in.Politically, it seems like an improbable move. But since the topic is back on the table, let’s examine the potential market impact if they were bold enough to proceed.What removing negative gearing means for the market. Removing negative gearing would likely cause a seismic shift in investor behaviour.If that advantage were taken away, many of those same investors might start eyeing the stock market as the next best vehicle to grow their wealth.Take away the tax perks of negative gearing, and suddenly income-producing stocks like Telstra  and APA Group  become a prime alternative.T","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"themarketonline.com.au","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"PDN.AU":"PALADIN ENERGY LTD","BK7504":"锂钴概念","MGR.AU":"MIRVAC GROUP","BK7501":"新冠治疗股","BK7095":"多种金属与采矿","BK7148":"燃气公用事业","BK7087":"多样化房地产投资信托v","APA.AU":"APA GROUP","NAB.AU":"NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LTD","BK7135":"综合性银行","MIN.AU":"MINERAL RESOURCES LTD","TLS.AU":"TELSTRA GROUP LTD","WHC.AU":"WHITEHAVEN COAL LTD","BK7507":"资源股","BK7083":"煤与消费用燃料","SGP.AU":"STOCKLAND","BK7040":"食品零售","BK7042":"综合电信业务","BK7510":"REITs概念","COL.AU":"COLES GROUP LTD","BK7511":"ESG概念","CBA.AU":"COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRAL","BK7082":"大卖场与超市","BK7509":"中概股"},"translate_title":"如果负杠杆消失，市场上的赢家和输家","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"WHC.AU":1,"TLS.AU":1,"SGP.AU":1,"PDN.AU":1,"NAB.AU":1,"MIN.AU":1,"MGR.AU":1,"COL.AU":1,"CBA.AU":1,"APA.AU":1},"content_text":"Negative gearing has resurfaced in political discussions, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese suggesting that the Treasury might be reconsidering this long-standing property tax incentive. \nHowever, Labor’s bruising loss in the 2019 election still lingers, making it difficult to envision the government taking the gamble of upsetting property investors—particularly with the current housing crisis that we’re in. \nPolitically, it seems like an improbable move. But since the topic is back on the table, let’s examine the potential market impact if they were bold enough to proceed.\nWhat removing negative gearing means for the market\nRemoving negative gearing would likely cause a seismic shift in investor behaviour. \nFor years, Australians have viewed residential real estate as a wealth-building machine with a side bonus—tax minimisation. \nIf that advantage were taken away, many of those same investors might start eyeing the stock market as the next best vehicle to grow their wealth.\nFor starters, dividend-paying stocks would likely see a surge in interest. \nTake away the tax perks of negative gearing, and suddenly income-producing stocks like Telstra (ASX: TLS) and APA Group (ASX: APA) become a prime alternative. \nThese companies provide consistent dividends and could become even more attractive as a steady source of passive income without the headaches of dealing with tenants or property maintenance.\nOn the flip side, stocks tied to the property sector, such as Mirvac (ASX: MGR) and Stockland (ASX: SGP), could face headwinds. \nA drop in property investor activity would likely slow residential development, affecting these companies’ bottom line. \nYet, given the political risks, I don’t see Labor pushing for such a drastic change, meaning these stocks will likely continue to thrive.\nMirvac has been accumulating recently, following a strong uptrend from 2009. Any breaks above $2.40 could signal the next leg up, with targets of $4.00 in sight. \nStockland has also been performing well, breaking above $5 and eyeing its GFC high of $8.80.\nWhat would this mean for margin lending?\nAnd then there’s the broader question: If property lending takes a hit, what about margin lending on the stock market? \nNegative gearing and margin lending aren’t worlds apart—both involve borrowing to invest, whether in property or equities. \nA shift in property tax rules could open the door for further scrutiny of margin lending, potentially leading to adjustments there as well.\nUltimately, while Labor may flirt with the idea of ending negative gearing, the reality is that it’s a political gamble they likely won’t take. \nIf they did, the ripple effects across the housing and stock market would be immediate and significant. Investors are adaptable, and they won’t stay on the sidelines for long.\nBest & worst performing sectors this week\nThe best-performing sectors include Materials – up over six per cent, followed by Energy and Information Technology – gaining more than one per cent. \nThe worst-performing sectors include Financials, down over three per cent, followed by Consumer Staples, down more than two per cent and Communication Services, down under half a per cent.\nThe best-performing stocks in the ASX top 100 include Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN), up more than 21 per cent, followed by Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN), up over 17 per cent and Whitehaven Coal (ASX:WHC), up some 16 per cent. The worst-performing stocks include Commonwealth Bank (ASX:CBA), down more than seven per cent, followed by Coles Group (ASX:COL) and National Australia Bank (ASX:NAB), which are both down more than five per cent.\nWhat’s next for the Australian stock market?\nA wave of buying on Thursday helped the All Ordinaries Index recover the losses earlier in the week, nudging it slightly higher. \nWhile the short-term bullish sentiment remains strong after an impressive September rally, the real focus should be on the medium to long-term outlook—especially now that the market has officially entered ‘bull market territory’. Here’s why.\nEnter the ‘bull market’\nA bull market is typically marked by an index rising over 20 per cent from its low. With the All Ords surpassing a 20 per cent gain from its June 2022 low, we’ve officially entered this phase. \nBeyond the textbook definition, there are other clear technical indicators: \n\nTrading near all-time highs, check. \nConsistently making higher lows and highs, check.\n\nSo, what can we expect as this bull market unfolds?\nHistorically, when the All Ords has risen over 20 per cent from significant lows since 2009 (excluding the GFC and the COVID lows), the index has continued to climb on average another 17 per cent before facing sustained downturns lasting from three months to a year.\nIf history is any guide – and I see no reason why it shouldn’t be, particularly with the bullish environment provided by the upcoming US presidential election and major shifts in interest rate policy by China and the US—the market is likely to continue rising, with a peak expected around 9,200 points.\nThis suggests there is still plenty of upside, especially with sectors like Materials yet to gain momentum. \nEnergy and utilities are also lagging, so now is the time to look for opportunities in these sectors as market capital flow begins to rotate into them.\nFor now, good luck and good trading.\nDale Gillham is Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%. He is also the author of Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in bookstores and online at www.wealthwithin.com.au\nDisclaimer: While Wealth Within holds an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL:226347) the information featured in this program is general in nature and therefore should not be relied upon. Before making any investment decisions, you should consult a licensed professional who can advise whether your investment decisions are appropriate for you.\nThe material provided in this article is for information only and should not be treated as investment advice. Viewers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For full disclaimer information, please click here.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2470177481"}