Two-Thirds of Americans Fear Medicare Will Run Out. Here's Why They May Be Right

Americans are increasingly concerned about Medicare's stability; almost two-thirds fear the program will run out of funds by the time they need it.

The government health care plan for those 65 and older has become a stressor for many Americans. According to a recent survey by Nationwide, 63% of Americans think Medicare will run out before they are eligible, and one in five cite that scenario as their biggest retirement planning concern.

Is Medicare Running Out?

The latest estimate from the Medicare Board of Trustees projects that the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund, which covers the costs of Medicare Part A, will only be able to pay all scheduled benefits until 2036. This is five years later than estimated last year due to policy changes, higher income from a strong economy, and lower expenses than expected in 2023.

The trust fund reserve is dwindling as the aging population and increased health care prices cause the federal government to spend more on benefits than it takes in. Once the fund is depleted, the board of trustees expects that income will be able to continue paying only 89% of total scheduled benefits. 

The Supplementary Medical Insurance (SMI) Trust Fund, which covers Medicare Part B and Part D, isn't projected to run out because it is funded by premiums paid by enrollees and federal contributions from the Treasury, the board of trustees said.

Rising Costs of Health Care Also Worries Many Americans

While Medicare running out of funds has made more Americans worry about their future health care, the rising costs of health care and prescription drugs are creating a major barrier for many trying to build a financially stable net now.

Almost half said medical and health expenses reduced the amount they saved for retirement, and one-fourth have canceled or postponed an annual physical this year due to high inflation, according to Nationwide.

These worries have affected the way many Americans think about the upcoming election. More than two in five said stabilizing Medicare should be the top health care priority for the next administration. In addition, 43% said high health care and prescription drug prices should be the top health care priority by the next administration.

To help beneficiaries afford rising health care costs, Medicare will face significant changes in 2025, such as the out-of-pocket Part D drug expenses limit and a new opt-in payment plan. These, among many other changes under the Inflation Reduction Act, have been called the biggest revisions to Medicare since its inception in 2006 by some experts.