By Teresa Rivas
As the old saying goes, money shouts, but wealth whispers. China's recent stimulus is ricocheting across the luxury sector, but for noise in the market this week, the gains may not be long lived.
This week's stimulus package is China's largest since the pandemic, and far-ranging, including interest rate cuts by its central bank, the People's Bank of China, which also said it would further help local governments buy up unsold property amid the nation's real estate slump.
Yet more salient to consumers is the package's half percentage-point reduction in existing mortgages. Details about the plan are scant, but it could provide a much-needed boost to spending at a time when job losses and wallowing property values -- a major source of personal wealth -- have dampened demand.
Certainly it seems like that's what investors are hoping, given that major luxury brands' stocks popped when plan was announced on Tuesday and are surging again today. Kering rose 9.6%, LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton gained 9.9%, Hermès International climbed 9.1%, Burberry Group advanced 8.7%, Cie. Financière Richemont was up 8%, Moncler junmped 6.6%, and Prada ended the day up 4.7%.
While many different retailers and Western brands are keen to tap into China's market, it's a particularly crucial region for luxury companies, as Barron's reported just this past weekend.
China had long been held up as a major growth driver for heritage brands, given its very large and growing population of increasingly middle- and higher-income consumers hungry for status symbols. According to McKinsey, China delivered more than half the global growth in luxury spending between 2012 and 2018; in the latter year, Chinese consumers accounted for about a third of total worldwide luxury spending.
While luxury companies have other problems that have led to falling sales too, China's major prepandemic contributions are a major reason why the stocks have suffered. The thinking is that as long as China's economy lags, there's little hope of a luxury rebound.
"Muted sector revenue growth will now likely continue into the second half of 2024 and 2025," wrote Bank of America analyst Adam Gildea when he downgraded a number of luxury stocks and cut his 2025 earnings per share estimates by an average of 17% for the group, below consensus. "The recent deterioration has been the Chinese consumer, which was the only driver of revenue growth in the first half of 2024."
A day later, the China stimulus news was announced and many investors are betting that the Chinese consumer will finally feel a little more spendy. And if the stimulus does work in dragging the Chinese economy out of its prolonged postpandemic slump, then luxury will be a beneficiary.
However that isn't a foregone conclusion. Although Beijing's decision to throw money at the problem may help in the short run, many strategists argue that the package doesn't address fundamental problems that will continue to weigh on the nation's economy.
With so many Chinese citizens' wealth tied up in the real estate market, it's a huge drag on consumers, making its growth targets almost moot, as Barron's noted; without a swift, multipronged approach to the property crisis, it's more like a Band-Aid on a broken leg. Likewise, many of the plan's components have been tried before with little impact, while doubling down on exporting cheap goods has led to a global backlash and domestic deflation.
In short, China's move doesn't look like a silver bullet, and if hoped-for consumer spending doesn't materialize, the shine may soon be off some luxury stocks' recent gold-plated gains.
Write to Teresa Rivas at teresa.rivas@barrons.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 26, 2024 13:55 ET (17:55 GMT)
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