If the China rally has more to run, Macquarie says these 5 ASX stocks have the most upside

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For a country not known for handing out huge wads of cash at once to its citizens, the stimulus measures proposed by the Chinese government last week have sent ripple effects throughout global markets...

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIf the China rally has more to run, Macquarie says these 5 ASX stocks have the most upside\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-01 04:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/if-the-china-rally-has-more-to-run-macquarie-says-these-5-asx-stocks-have-the-most-upside><strong>LiveWire</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>For a country not known for handing out huge wads of cash at once to its citizens, the stimulus measures proposed by the Chinese government last week have sent ripple effects throughout global markets...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/if-the-china-rally-has-more-to-run-macquarie-says-these-5-asx-stocks-have-the-most-upside\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK7511","symbol_name":"ESG概念","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/if-the-china-rally-has-more-to-run-macquarie-says-these-5-asx-stocks-have-the-most-upside","article_id":"2472359535","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"livewire_stock","url":"https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/if-the-china-rally-has-more-to-run-macquarie-says-these-5-asx-stocks-have-the-most-upside","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2472359535","pubTimestamp":1727726417,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"livewire_stock","name":"Livewire Markets"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"For a country not known for handing out huge wads of cash at once to its citizens, the stimulus measures proposed by the Chinese government last week have sent ripple effects throughout global markets. Not just because the stimulus measures were significant but because this time, the proposal comes with the promise of more to come.Nowhere is this renewed optimism more apparent than in stocks. The Shanghai stock market soared 5% yesterday alone. Here at home over the last five days, the S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index has risen more than 11% while the equivalent Banks Index has fallen more than 4%. Commonwealth Bank , the poster child of the Australian banking sector and the world's most expensive bank by valuation, lost 7% off its share price last week alone.Banks vs Materials Index, over the last three months. . But with the Fed also starting to cut interest rates, which story will be the more powerful for markets?And with the Miners up by double digits in just five trading sessions, are ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"livewiremarkets.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK7511":"ESG概念","BK7506":"金矿股","RRR.AU":"REVOLVER RESOURCES HOLDINGS","NEM.AU":"Newmont Corp","RRR":"Red Rock Resorts","BK7046":"综合性资本市场","TWE.AU":"TREASURY WINE ESTATES LTD","BK4150":"赌场与赌博","S32.AU":"SOUTH32 LTD","WDS.AU":"WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LTD","MQG.AU":"Macquarie","BK7142":"石油与天然气的勘探与生产","NST.AU":"NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LTD","CBA.AU":"COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRAL","BK7108":"石油天然气设备与服务","BK7055":"建筑与工程","BK7095":"多种金属与采矿","STO.AU":"SANTOS LIMITED","BK7104":"黄金","BK7110":"铜","BK7135":"综合性银行","BK7507":"资源股","WOR.AU":"WORLEY LTD","BK7505":"食品股","BK7097":"酿酒商与葡萄酒商"},"translate_title":"麦格理表示，如果中国股市反弹还有更多空间，这5只澳大利亚证券交易所股票的上涨空间最大","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"WOR.AU":1,"WDS.AU":1,"TWE.AU":1,"STO.AU":1,"S32.AU":1,"RRR.AU":1,"RRR":1,"NST.AU":1,"NEM.AU":1,"MQG.AU":1,"CBA.AU":1},"content_text":"For a country not known for handing out huge wads of cash at once to its citizens, the stimulus measures proposed by the Chinese government last week have sent ripple effects throughout global markets. Not just because the stimulus measures were significant but because this time, the proposal comes with the promise of more to come.\nNowhere is this renewed optimism more apparent than in stocks. The Shanghai stock market soared 5% yesterday alone. Here at home over the last five days, the S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index has risen more than 11% while the equivalent Banks Index has fallen more than 4%. Commonwealth Bank (ASX: CBA), the poster child of the Australian banking sector and the world's most expensive bank by valuation, lost 7% off its share price last week alone.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nBanks vs Materials Index, over the last three months. (Source: Market Index)\nBut with the Fed also starting to cut interest rates, which story will be the more powerful for markets? And with the Miners up by double digits in just five trading sessions, are there any more gains to be had?\nMacquarie has penned a note that answers these and other questions, and this wire will summarise that note. \nA quick recap of what was announced\nFor those who are not caught up already, the Chinese government (through the People's Bank of China) announced a raft of stimulus measures which are the largest since the COVID pandemic hit. You can read a comprehensive list of the stimulus measures in this article by Antipodes' John Stavliotis. But the basic stuff that has moved markets is as follows:\n\nA 30-basis point cut in the 1-year medium-term lending facility rate (from 2.60% to 2.30%)\nA 20-basis point cut in the 7-day reverse repo rate (from 1.90% to 1.70%).\nReserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut by 50bps which frees up about US $142 billion of liquidity which could be used to generate new lending measures.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nSource: Reuters\nThe cuts are larger than what analysts were expecting, but economists and analysts remain divided. \nHelen Qiao, Bank of America's Greater China Chief Economist, says there is not just more stimulus coming - she argues it's actually already in the works.\n\"In our view, policy formulation of more fiscal stimulus may already be underway. We expect the announcement of a fiscal package in the coming weeks, include demand-boosting stimulus on consumption and investment, as well as further enhancement of social security, healthcare, and pro-birth measures,\" Qiao wrote to clients.\nMeanwhile, Citi's commodities team, led by Wenyu Yao, are not as convinced:\n\"China's recent stimulus U-turn has clearly been supportive for base metals but there is a lack of detail that would convince us measures will sufficiently bolster demand to meet recent market optimism,\" Yao wrote. \nANZ tend to agree:\n\"The package is sufficient for our 4.9% GDP forecast this year. However, it remains too small and too late for the ongoing property woes,\" ANZ's Zhaopeng Xing wrote.\nAs for the Macquarie team, they offer the following:\n\"We are not convinced the scale of China's stimulus is enough to drive sustained upside to commodities in the context of a slowing global cycle. Without this, we think disinflation trends continue and that central banks ease in response to rising unemployment risks,\" they write in a research note released last Friday.\n\"To chase China-exposed stocks after their strong run this week, we think investors need to have some confidence the gains could continue.\"\nBut if you've got confidence...\nThey argue that the most upside will be gleaned not necessarily in the ASX-listed miners but in other China-exposed ASX stocks. \nStocks that have gained on the China news but still have more than 10% upside, according to Macquarie's own forecasts include:\n\nWorley (ASX: WOR)\nTreasury Wine Estates (ASX: TWE)\nSouth32 (ASX: S32)\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nWorley, Treasury Wine, and South32 shares in the last month. Spot when the stimulus was announced. (Source: TradingView)\n\nIn addition, Woodside (ASX: WDS) and Santos (ASX: STO) both offer 20%+ upside. But, as Macquarie's analysts add: \"We would be wary chasing industrial mining and energy stocks after this week's rally.\" \nOne big reason the Macquarie team are not chasing the miners is how the rise in commodity prices stacks up against existing year-end forecasts. For instance, iron ore prices are up significantly on the stimulus news, \"but this rise only lifted prices to be roughly in line with consensus for 2025 and 2026. In other words, iron ore prices would need to rally further to drive earnings upside for related miners.\"\nIn addition, with oil prices falling on prospects key OPEC+ member Saudi Arabia may raise output, Macquarie analysts say earnings downgrades cannot be out of the question.\nIn fact, the only commodity that is positioned for further upgrades is actually the one that's rallying the hardest - gold. Gold stocks tend to outperform following the first Fed cut, and hence, this is why Macquarie's strategy portfolio is overweight Newmont Mining (ASX: NEM) and Northern Star (ASX: NST).\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe price of gold vs Newmont and Northern Star shares so far in 2024. (Source: TradingView)\n\n \n\n\nNever miss an update\n\n    Enjoy this wire? Hit the ‘like’ button to let us know. \n    Stay up to date with my current content by \n    following me below and you’ll be notified every time I post a wire","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.28.3","shortVersion":"4.28.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2472359535"}