Toyota Stays With Hybrids And Hydrogen

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Toyota is struggling in China, but that isn’t the only market threatened by its insistence on making cars with an internal combustion engine.The SE Asian NEV market is 80% dominated by Chinese brands,...

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For this reason, I’m cautious about investment in Toyota.Tramino/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images It can be hard to work out what is happening during a revolution, and it is especially important to pay attention to who is spinning the story. I'm on the record for coming to the conclusion that the BEV (Battery Electric Vehicle) revolution is now well underway. The switch from horse and cart to the ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) happened in not much more than a decade, as indicated by famous photos of Easter Day parades in New York in 1900 and 1913. China is providing an insight into the astonishing progress in the development of fully electric vehicles, and anyone who follows the Chinese BEV developments (including Tesla in China) will understand that the BEV revolution is well underway. The Chinese don't spend a lot of time on marketing the BEV, they just make superb BEVs through innovation in a cost-effective way. The Japanese market is holding fast to denying full electrification. Toyota (NYSE:TM) (OTCPK:TOYOF) has a superb marketing team that works relentlessly to try to reframe the revolutions happening in transport as an anything-but-full-electrification with batteries. This strategy, that goes back decades, still has two paths which were formulated a long time ago, based on the assumption that batteries would never become a satisfactory solution for decarbonizing wheeled transport. Toyota is pushing hybrid vehicles (still with an ICE) and also hydrogen as a substitute for gasoline and diesel, either in an ICE powered by hydrogen or FCEV (Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles). Here I consider very recent announcements by Toyota that make clear that the company still isn't accepting the rise of the BEV. I continue to have the view that Toyota is not a safe investment as it continues to bet that the BEV revolution will fade. Hybrids It is clear that marketing has won in relation to the end of cars powered just by an ICE. Despite hybrids mostly costing more than conventional ICE cars, the move is away from selling vehicles with just an ICE. BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF)(OTCPK:BYDDY) started this a few years ago when it decided not to sell cars without a substantial battery. It is important to note that the ICE is on borrowed time and the first country to ban the sale of new cars which have an ICE, Norway, plans to do this starting NEXT YEAR (2025). A new Government in the UK has resolved to bring back the date when cars with an ICE are banned from 2035 to 2030. If you check out IEA forecasts, you'll note that cars with an ICE (including hybrids) begin to disappear from 2030 onwards. The rise of the PHEV? Toyota pioneered the hybrid as a gasoline-powered car with a small battery to recover energy from regenerative braking. China has been where the definition of a hybrid is changing from a car solely powered by gasoline, to a car with a substantial battery (that can be charged externally) to run the vehicle, with an ICE to recharge the battery in longer distance driving. So the ICE is essentially a generator to charge the battery from which the vehicle is driven. I think purchasing a PHEV today, when a BEV version avoids the hassles of having an ICE, makes little sense, but Toyota's marketers have succeeded in buying a little more time for the ICE to continue. BYD has perfected a PHEV that is primarily an electric vehicle with significant range (~100km). Toyota has understood and acknowledged the transforming nature of BYD's technology by licensing the BYD powertrain technology and LFP lithium-ion battery. For me, this is not only an acknowledgement of BYD's hybrid technology but also the LFP battery technology. I've covered this development in a recent article. This is surprising considering that Toyota talks a big story about its own battery technology. BYD is clear about the BEV being the future even in the near term, but it has decided to make money from its hybrid and battery developments in the meantime. It has also developed some PHEV models, which are gaining recognition for their quality. For example, BYD recently introduced its Sealion 6 PHEV, and it has quickly become Australia's best-selling PHEV. Note that Toyota doesn't sell a PHEV in Australia, although it is considering offering PHEV vehicles soon, perhaps in response to BYD's recent success. While Toyota started the hybrid story a long time ago now, it is clear that BYD is the new winner and BYD will make some money by licensing its powerful PHEV technology to Toyota. This is clear acknowledgement by Toyota that it is off the pace with hybrid technology. Presumably, Toyota has done this deal with BYD to try to give a life for its latest engine technology. This is a bit like getting a better horse in the horse and cart era. What does the data say about BEV versus PHEV sales? Reading much of the press in the US and Europe, one might be excused for thinking that the heat has come off the BEV transition and that the world has decided not to exit the ICE. Instead, there are a lot of claims that PHEV (which still have an ICE) expansion is overtaking the BEV shift. The BEV approach is being driven hard by a lot of new entrants to the industry (especially in China) with no legacy ICE to complicate things. Only BYD is successfully navigating a BEV transition, while keeping a finger on the ICE. It has stopped making cars powered solely by an ICE, but it is providing the industry leading PHEV technology, where the ICE is an electric generator and the car is driven electrically. Norway is the country that has committed to the end of the ICE and is getting on with it; 90% of new car sales in Norway are fully electric BEVs, and it will end sales of new cars with an ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) in 2025, although there remains a way to go before the country's car fleet becomes fully electric. Japanese companies rounding the wagons Toyota is doubling down on its path to become a \"Kodak\" company and denying the revolution that is happening, as transport gets fully electrified. Anyone following this closely will know that Toyota has resolutely refused to plan for growing its almost minimal BEV portfolio, instead obfuscating about the term \"electrified\". At Toyota, \"electrified\" includes \"conventional hybrid,\" which is entirely gasoline-powered. There are various ways to address adversity. One is to retreat and seek strength in collaboration. This is what the Japanese car industry is doing in the face of a revolution in how wheeled transport is powered, and how the emergence of an industrial powerhouse in China is driving this change. A second carmaker alliance in Japan is emerging to complement the Toyota, Mazda (OTCPK:MZDAF) and Subaru (OTCPK:FUJHF) alliance on ICE developments. This involves Honda (HMC), Nissan (OTCPK:NSANF) and Mitsubishi (OTCPK:MMTOF). Threats to Toyota in SE Asia Toyota has dominated the SE Asian market, and its view has been that this market would lag other markets in electrification. It is clear that the SE Asian market is not behaving in this way, with dramatic adoption of electrification, which is dominated (80%) by Chinese brands, especially BYD. BYD is the manufacturer of 5 of the top 10 cars in China in 2024. BYD is expanding its manufacturing beyond China, to substantially grow its already massive BEV production. It is building manufacturing facilities in Hungary, Thailand, Indonesia, Mexico and Brazil. These will address markets in SE Asia, Europe and Brazil that Toyota thinks it owns currently. Thailand is BYD's biggest overseas market already, and is beginning to challenge Toyota's well established presence in Thailand. In H1 2024, Japanese manufacturers dominated Thai sales with 7 of the top 12 positions, but Chinese manufacturers made up 4 of the top 12. Toyota maintained its dominance (No. 1 car sales at 134,064), but BYD is already No. 4 with 17,421 car sales. With several special events surrounding Toyota (e.g. the Daihatsu scandal; temporary recall of the Prius Prime hybrid), a clear pattern is not obvious. But in the past 3 months (June, July, August), Toyota has seen a year-on-year decline in worldwide sales and Japanese sales down year-on-year for the past 8 consecutive months. Is this the beginning of Toyota losing market share to BEV sales? Toyota's quality edge? One thing that few question, is that, Toyota makes quality cars that are reliable and not expensive to fix. This is a hard won reputation that has taken decades to build. A chink in the armour appeared recently, when Toyota recalled ~211,000 2023-2024 Prius Prime Hybrid Electric Vehicles in Japan, the US, Europe and Asia. The issue was faulty rear door latches that can open while driving due to short-circuit of the latches, resulting from substantial water entry (e.g. car wash). Chairman Akio Toyoda's response to the problem might not go down well with Toyota owners … \"I hate to say this at this time, but in the case of a car, it is called a recall, but in the case of a smartphone, it is called an update.\" My take on this is that Toyota's faulty rear door latches were a true recall, because to fix the problem, the vehicle needed to be returned for a replacement of the faulty switches. There have been fixes with Tesla (TSLA) (Autosteer software issue) and BYD (Seagull, rear camera software bug) vehicles that merely required a software update that didn't need a return of the vehicle. These latter fixes could be described as over-the-air software fixes. Making sense of Toyota's marketing Toyota has muddied the waters in the BEV transition by using \"electrification\" ambiguously, equating it with \"electric, meaning BEV.\" In a very recent interview, Chairman Toyoda opened up new phraseology by seeking to count the carbon saved in hybrid vehicles as numbers of actual BEVs. Chairman Toyoda claims that Toyota sold 160,000 BEVs from 2021 to 2023 (figures from Toyota sales indicate 142,891 BEV sales in that period). He acknowledges that during that period, Tesla sold 4.11 million BEVs and BYD sold 2.81 million BEVs. Then he claimed that in the same period, Toyota sold 9.03 million hybrids. The data presented by Toyota for the breakout of HEV/PHEV/BEV/FCEV/MHEV sales is less, (7.15 million) than what was reflected in the total for \"electrified\" vehicle sales. It seems in the Toyota data sheets that perhaps 2021 HEV sales were low (due to COVID?), but that the overall sales might have been smoothed? Notwithstanding this uncertainty, the marketing pitch here is that the 9.03 (or is that really 7.15?) million hybrids saved CO2 emissions equivalent to 3 million BEVs. I find it hard to accept the logic of the argument, because the vast number of that 9.03 (or 7.15) million vehicles were conventional hybrids that are entirely powered by gasoline (with the battery charged by regenerative braking or the ICE in the hybrid). Chairman Toyoda then makes the huge leap that actually Toyota is the third-biggest BEV manufacturer with the following explanation: \"When seen from this perspective in terms of CO2 reduction converted into the number of BEVs, Tesla is first, BYD second and Toyota third.\" The next thing using this logic is that making small fuel-efficient ICE cars is like making BEVs. This makes no sense. Toyota is backing off from its BEV technology Perhaps the most curious development in the retreat from the BEV by legacy US manufacturers, Ford and GM, comes from Toyota, even though it isn't being very public about this. The fact that Toyota suppliers have been briefed, shows that it plans to reduce its 2026 target by 30% for BEVs to 1 million (down from 1.5 million). The explanation is almost certainly that reality is intruding for Toyota as 2026 approaches. It is 2024 and Toyota's BEV manufacture is small. They not only have to make the vehicles, but they need to sell them. In their 2024 BEV sales to the end of August, Toyota sold 97,058 BEVs, which is a long way from even a 1 million goal by 2026. In their home market (Japan) Toyota has sold 1,621 BEVs in 2024 (until end of August)! Note that for the whole of 2023, Toyota sold 104,018 BEVs, so the increase from 2023 to 2024 does not indicate a sales trajectory that could achieve even 1 million sales in 2026. It takes time to build a market. Toyota is still doubling down on hydrogen, even as its existing sales plummet Toyota is doubling down on hydrogen through a partnership with BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY), which plans to produce a new generation of fuel cell vehicles in 2028 and build a hydrogen distribution network. Meanwhile, Toyota's global sales of its existing FCEV vehicles in 2024 (Jan-Aug) were substantially down at 1375. \"Sales\" (mostly leasing?) of Toyota FCEVs in the past 3 years were: 2021, 5,918; 2022, 3,924; 2023, 4,203. Recently, sales in the biggest market for Toyota's Mirai (California) have fallen almost 80% from 2,044 units in Apr-Aug 2023, to 424 units in the following 6-month period (Oct 2023-March 2024). Surely, this results from the near absence of refueling facilities, with the exit of Shell being a big blow? In 2023, there were 59 public hydrogen refueling stations in the whole of the US... This brings a new dimension to range anxiety. It explains a big focus of the Toyota and BMW announcement on co-developing hydrogen infrastructure.... for the whole world? Toyota has talked about a \"hydrogen society\" for a long time, but tangible evidence of progress is lacking. Indeed, the Toyota/BMW partnership dates back to 2011! I watch the Australian market, and earlier this year there was an upbeat report on Toyota's plans to get serious about hydrogen by the end of the decade, with the possibility of hydrogen-powered Land Cruiser, Prado and HiLux vehicles. It gets weird when Toyota Australia VP, Sean Hanley, talks about a possible Toyota hydrogen ICE vehicle (rather than a FCEV). And then there was a dose of reality when the sales of FCEV Mirai in Australia for Q2 2024 were revealed as just 5 vehicles in contrast to 25,353 BEVs in Q2 2024. I know that Toyota and BMW have invested a lot in development of hydrogen-powered vehicles, but surely at some stage it will become time to acknowledge defeat? What the market thinks If you are a Seeking Alpha reader, you'll find that pretty much everyone recommends that you buy Toyota. Two Seeking Alpha authors in the last 90 days indicated a \"buy\" and \"strong buy\" rating. Four Wall Street analysts gave 1 \"strong buy\", 1 \"buy\" and 2 \"hold\" ratings. Seeking Alpha's Quant rating is \"hold\" with outstanding factor grades (\"A+\" for Profitability and Revisions, \"A\" for Growth, \"A-\" for Valuation and \"D+\" for Momentum. I've discussed BYD a lot, so the comparable ratings for BYDDF are: Eight authors gave 1 \"strong buy\", 2 \"buy\", 3 \"hold\" and 2 \"sell\" for an overall \"hold\" rating. One Wall Street analyst gave a \"buy\" rating. Seeking Alpha's Quant rating was \"strong buy\" with weaker performance on factor grades than Toyota received. BYDDF was \"A+\" for Profitability, \"A\" for Revisions, \"A-\" for Momentum, \"B-\" for Growth and \"C\" for valuation. I note that Toyota recently changed from a \"strong buy\" to a \"hold\" rating. If you read how Quant Rating is determined, you'll see that a D+ for Momentum disqualifies the stock from anything stronger than a neutral \"hold\". So this explains why Toyota's otherwise outstanding Quant Rating metrics have led to reversion to \"hold\". My investing analysis depends much more on qualitative factors. While Quant is very successful for many types of investments, my view is that it struggles for companies in times of great change, such as being experienced by the car industry currently. So I have a different perspective, which is influenced by my choice of investing in BYD some time ago (end of 2019). The 5-year chart below, comparing BYD and Toyota since my investment, shows that my BYDDF investment is up more than 600%, while a Toyota investment over the same period shows a 34% increase in share price. I've not sold because I think that BYD has a long way to run, notwithstanding the risk of investment in a Hong Kong listed Chinese company. Toyota, BYD 5 year charts (Seeking Alpha) One might say, but what about comparing Toyota and BYD in other investment time horizons? Below is the 1-year chart comparing BYD and Toyota. Toyota, BYD 1 year chart (Seeking Alpha) Over the past year, BYD is up 16.31% compared with Toyota's up 0.24%. Choosing other timeframes gives worse results for Toyota. A 3-month horizon gives BYD up 20.16% and Toyota down 10.74%, while a 6-month horizon gives BYD up 36.83% and Toyota down 27.4%. In short-term or long-term horizons, BYD substantially outperformed Toyota in terms of stock price appreciation. BYDDF has just started paying a dividend in 2024, which was 1.23% in dividend yield. Toyota paid a 2.66% dividend yield in 2024, but Seeking Alpha indicates that Toyota's ability to continue paying the current dividend is in question. I remain puzzled by the different views about Toyota and BYD, which may reflect caution about investing in a Chinese company. The above charts confirm my view that BYD is a better investment proposition than Toyota. But you, as investors, can reflect on the above if you are contemplating investment in Toyota (or BYD). Conclusion Investment in times of great change is always risky, with winners and losers emerging as the change consolidates. I'm with Ford (F) CEO Jim Farley that there is an unstoppable transition happening, as wheeled transport gets fully electrified with the BEV. And Farley is clear that superb and cheaper Chinese BEVs will come to the US, notwithstanding current attempts to keep them out. Ford has been reported to be backing off on the BEV in favour of hybrids, but that isn't what he says in the recent interview above. He has built a small \"skunkworks\" team to fast-track a cheaper BEV to compete with the superb Chinese BEVs seeking to dominate the global BEV market. Ford knows that we are entering the end of an era when transport was powered by gasoline. I see no sign that Toyota accepts the reality of the coming end of the Internal Combustion Engine, and it is doubling down on the failed attempts to establish hydrogen as the solution to the end of fossil fuel use to power wheeled transport. For these reasons alone, I'm very sceptical of an investment in Toyota as a long-term investor. Toyota may be a major player in the Japanese economy, but that won't be enough to keep cars powered by the internal combustion engine. I am not a financial advisor, but I follow closely the dramatic changes happening as wheeled transport gets electrified. I hope that my perspective is of some value to you and your financial advisor as you consider investment in the car industry.  Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. 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