China's stimulus-driven upside for industrial metals, grains to be short-lived - BMI

seekingalpha10-04

BMI (a unit of Fitch Solutions) expects that September’s wave of Mainland Chinese stimulus measures is likely to fuel support for industrial metals over the short term, but the impact on agricultural ...

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Mainland China’s sluggish demand has been a major drag over the past year, placing a cap on metal prices, and BMI argues that a sustained long-term upward trend in industrial metal prices is unlikely to materialise until there's \"a turning point in the Chinese property sector, which constitutes a large portion of industrial metals’ demand.\" At the same time, base metals prices are likely to be supported by a weaker dollar in the coming months, given their inverse relationship to the greenback, analysts said. ETFs: (NYSEARCA:COPX), (CPER), (OTC:JJC) The Bloomberg Industrial Metals sub-index increased by 9% in the year-to-date as of October 1, gaining 7.6% m-o-m. Precious metals also continued to edge higher in September, remaining the best-performing commodity sub-asset class in the year-to-date so far. Notably, iron ore, previously the hardest hit, is leading the pack in terms of weekly gains, with iron ore (62% Fe content) prices at Qingdao Port having increased by 11.6% between September 24-29, to $99.8/tonne as of September 29, edging closer to the $100/tonne mark for the first time since mid-July 2024, the brokerage noted. As for the base metals, copper, aluminium and nickel also enjoyed a lift. Copper prices closed above $10,000/tonne at $10,081/tonne on September 26. China is the world’s largest consumer of the metal. In a similar vein, BMI does not expect the stimulus to provide either sustainable support to agricultural prices within China or long-lived momentum to international grain prices, with other factors set to continue shaping sentiment. Despite recent bullish price development, corn and soybean futures contracts recorded losses in the month of September as a whole. Regarding international grain markets, unfavourable weather conditions in Brazil, leading to drought in certain areas, have raised some concern in relation to the harvest of the safrinha corn crop, BMI said, adding, in Russia too, unfavourable weather conditions have had a negative impact on agriculture.  BMI further notes, the grain markets will remain sensitive to, and prone to short-run upward movements on, negative production developments due to still sizeable net short positions, which in turn raise the likelihood of event-driven bouts of short covering. ETFs: (WEAT), (NYSEARCA:CORN), (SOYB), (DBA), (MOO)","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2472581599"}