Week 40 Wrap: China’s nonsensical stimmy hype wanes (shocking!); HotCopper’s picks; oil & inflation

The Market Herald10-04 14:43

China hype wanes The defining event at the end of this week has been, perhaps, unsurprising – after just over a week, the thrill China’s latest stimulus announcements put into world markets has ...

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}\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; 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Don’t tell me I don’t do anything for you.One of the most watched stocks this week has been a company with no news out – stem cell player Mesoblast . Mesoblast jumped 11% on Friday with no news announced; over the last week, it’s up 37%. While there was a webinar on Friday, its strong performance precedes that one event.Israel has begun bombing Lebanon more thoroughly, except this time, it’s Beirut. We’ve seen a lot of action in the last","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"themarketonline.com.au","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"RCR.AU":"RINCON RESOURCES LTD","BK7067":"生物科技","BK7095":"多种金属与采矿","XJO.AU":"标普/澳交所 200指数","BK7501":"新冠治疗股","XKO.AU":"标普/澳交所 300指数","WCN.AU":"WHITE CLIFF MINERALS LTD","BK7508":"医药生物股","MSB.AU":"MESOBLAST LTD","XAO.AU":"标普/澳交所 普通股指数"},"translate_title":"第40周总结：中国荒谬的刺激炒作减弱（令人震惊！）；HotCopper的精选；石油与通货膨胀","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MSB.AU":1,"RCR.AU":1,"WCN.AU":1,"XAO.AU":0.9,"XJO.AU":0.9,"XKO.AU":0.9},"content_text":"China hype wanes \nThe defining event at the end of this week has been, perhaps, unsurprising – after just over a week, the thrill China’s latest stimulus announcements put into world markets has started to subside. \nStocks in Hong Kong crashed 30% on Thursday as excitement wore off, and we’ve also seen a pullback in ASX mining stocks on Friday – though, not in commodity markets, where most goods that benefitted last week remain higher MoM.\nI pondered on whether or not this would happen in last week’s wrap (in a way that suggested I thought it would) – and now, it’s come true. Don’t tell me I don’t do anything for you. \nStimulus thesis didn’t make sense \nMost curious about the last reaction to Chinese stimulus is that it was actually based more around artificially propping up the country’s stock market. \nThe PBOC is giving money to Chinese brokers to buy Chinese stocks, which if you think about it, wouldn’t actually do anything at all for the real Chinese economy. So there’s that. \nWhen it comes to the real Chinese economy, the PBOC just told banks to loosen barriers to entry for mortgages, and, cut interest rates slightly. But they’ve already done that, like, five times this year. Who cares? It was obviously the stocks thing that got people excited, but share markets aren’t economies.\nIt seems markets are realising they might have gotten a bit overexcited. But that’s enough thinly veiled gloating. Let’s talk about HotCopper.\nWhat HotCopper had its eyes on\nOne of the most watched stocks this week has been a company with no news out – stem cell player Mesoblast (ASX:MSB). Mesoblast jumped 11% on Friday with no news announced; over the last week, it’s up 37%. While there was a webinar on Friday, its strong performance precedes that one event. \nA long-running thread on HotCopper has long been devoted to Mesoblast – don’t forget stem cells were once a force of hype unparalleled by anything else in biotech – and for true believers who haven’t lost sight of the prize, Mesoblast has long been a healthy point of discussion. \nIts six month returns are perhaps most impressive: shares are up +77% over that timeframe. At market close on Friday 4th October, shares are worth $1.50.\nWhat else was HotCopper watching this week? White Cliff Minerals’ (ASX:WCN) Friday announcement it had found potentially the highest grade copper rock chips ever found was enough to spur healthy interest; earlier in the week, it was Rincon Resources’ (ASX:RCR) 212m copper hit (grading at 0.23%) practically from the surface, as well as some brief REE intersections.\n(Most investment bank analysts in the world broadly are bullish on copper right now; so is BHP, which this week said it expects copper demand to rise by 1Mtn per year into 2030.)\nMiddle East rears its head…again \nNo wrap of this week would be complete without talking about that great market catalyst: war. \nIsrael has begun bombing Lebanon more thoroughly, except this time, it’s Beirut. We’ve seen a lot of action in the last week: top Hezbollah commanders killed, Hamas commanders killed (also in Lebanon,) a mass shooting in Tel Aviv, and Iran fired 200 missiles into Israel. \n(In an unfortunate turn of events, it appears the only casualty of the Iranian strike was a Palestinian in the West Bank who was killed by a fallen missile fuselage.)\nAs of Friday, it now appears Israel may be seeking to strike Iranian oil infrastructure. In turn, oil prices jumped 5% on Friday above US$77/bbl, which represents an 8.3% gain for Brent Crude this week as at 4.30pm Sydney time October 4th 2024. \nThat could be a bad thing for Australia’s disinflation trajectory. On Friday, petrol prices in Sydney hit new all-time-high records. \nIt feels a bit like COVID all over again. I’ll be keeping a very close eye on things over the weekend. Speaking of weekends – have a good one. \n(And don’t forget to check my list below of headlines that I feel to be important – there’s a lot I haven’t talked about.) \nWhat HotCopper was watching \n\nRincon hits mammoth copper drill hit at 212m in width from surface \nWhite Cliff believes it’s uncovered the highest graded copper rock-chips ever found\nStem cell darling Mesoblast up nearly 80% over last 6 months; 40% gains in Week 40\n\nAustralian Economy\n\nAustralia delivers second straight budget surplus, first time in 15 years\nRetail sales jump in August on warmer weather; Citi says not conducive for RBA cut\nProperty watchers mixed in reaction to negative gearing change rumours \n92% of businesses in construction are reporting overdue invoices in last year \n\nAustralian Equities \n\nASX200 has best September quarter in a year; Monday clocks 8,270pts\nSigma rallies as it addresses regulator concerns on Chemist Warehouse deal\n\nInternational Equities\n\nHong Kong stocks fall on Thursday as stimulus rally loses steam\nApple falls -3% as iPhone 16 value proposition falters\n\nInternational Economies\n\nSaudi Arabia cuts GDP growth forecast to 0.8%\nHSBC call -50bps rate cut from NZ central bank in Week 41\nEurozone inflation falls below 2% for first time in 3 years\n\nCommodities\n\nIron Ore upside persists in second week post-China stimmy announcement…\nBut Goldman Sachs’ China analysts remain wary of iron ore boost longevity\nGoldman Sachs see US$2.9K/oz gold price in early 2025\nA week after Shell, Australia’s Origin also ditches hydrogen plans…\nBut China is leading record hydrogen project investment\n\nGeopolitics\n\nOil, gold rise as Israel and Lebanon share missile strikes; MidEast tension rises broadly\nUS ship queues grow as American dockworker strike continues\nUS and India agree to cooperate on critical battery minerals supply\n\nRegulatory, Odds & Ends\n\nOpenAI expects to lose US$5B this year; at same time, valuation doubles\nSEC appeals decision in fight to have greater oversight of US crypto markets \nRice prices fall to 16-year-low as India lifts export curbs on staple food\nQatar Airways to buy 25% of Virgin Australia","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.28.3","shortVersion":"4.28.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2472815129"}