By Giulia Petroni
A roundup of key agricultural commodity markets for the week Sept. 30-Oct.4 by Dow Jones Newswires in Barcelona.
GRAINS & OILSEEDS: The macro mood is bullish following the Federal Reserve's big interest-rate cut earlier this month and China's new batch of stimulus measures to support the economy and the country's struggling property market.
"Hedge funds have been covering shorts and adding new long positions for the past six weeks due to dry Brazil weather, the Fed's big cut, Chinese stimulus, better demand," Peak Trading Research analysts said in a note to investors.
This week, traders will be focusing on the USDA stocks report, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments later on Monday, China's golden week starting on Tuesday, and nonfarm payrolls data on Friday.
Meanwhile on the weather front, forecasts point to normal temperatures, with some rains from Hurricane Helene drifting up the Eastern Corn Belt. But according to Peak Trading Research, most of the Corn Belt will be dry this week, which is good for harvest.
In South America, there hasn't been much progress in planting and farmers will need to see some rain in October in order to improve ground moisture.
Chicago wheat futures are up 0.7% at $5.84 a bushel on Monday, while corn is up 0.2% at $4.19 a bushel. Soybean prices are down 0.3% at $10.63 a bushel.
SOFT COMMODITIES: Agricultural softs have experienced some upward momentum recently, driven by adverse weather conditions in key markets--such as the U.S. for cotton and Brazil for coffee and sugar, according to market watchers.
Cocoa prices are up 84% year to date but only 0.9% on the month, while coffee is up more than 42% year to date and 9.7% on the month. Sugar is up more than 8% year to date and roughly 15% on the month, as drought and increased wildfire incidents have hit output. BMI analysts cut their global production balance estimates, saying they forecast a surplus of 1.9 million tons from a previously expected surplus of 3.9 million tons.
"We expect tight global supplies to continue to support prices, noting the continued challenges in Brazil as a potential upward risk for prices," they said in a note to clients.
On Monday, cocoa is up 0.2% at $7,741 a metric ton, while coffee is down 0.3% at $2.68 a pound. Sugar is down 1.6% at $0.22 a pound.
Write to Giulia Petroni at giulia.petroni@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 30, 2024 12:08 ET (16:08 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2024 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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