Hesai's Market Share: A Golden Investment Opportunity

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Hesai, the market leader in LiDAR, dominates with a 37% market share and exclusive contracts with 19 OEMs, including top Chinese EV makers.The LiDAR market is expected to grow at a 39% CAGR, reaching ...

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Hesai has significant competitive advantages over its competitors and has contracts signed with leading automotive OEMs, especially the Chinese EV makers, for large volumes of product. Several have designated it as an exclusive supplier. Hesai has developed a significant competitive advantage in its scale and balance sheet over the other start-up companies targeting this market, as well as a cost/feature advantage that may have forced the largest competitor to exit LiDAR development. Hesai appears to have developed a moat around its business and a significant and sustainable competitive advantage. I forecast that Hesai shares could rise as much as 400% in the coming years, I am awarding it a Strong Buy recommendation and have added the stock to my portfolio. Background LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) is a sensing technology that uses lasers to send out pulses of light that bounce of objects and then return to a scanner. The time taken for the light to return is used to calculate the distance to the object. The data measured by the sensor is used to develop a point cloud that computers with AI capabilities can be trained on to recognize what is in the space around a car. The technology is used in many fields, but I am focussing on its applications in the automotive industry for driver assist functions and autonomous vehicles. I have written 11 articles on this market sector, beginning with my February 2022 review of the LiDAR industry, where I covered the leading market participants at that time, the types of technology they were exploring and tried to lay out a likely timeline for the adoption of this technology. The landscape of the industry has changed, the take-up of electric vehicles in the West has been slower than expected, autonomous vehicles still seem many years away and the RoboTaxi industry remains small. As a result, the companies I reviewed in my earlier articles have not generated the sales expected and do not look as attractive as they once did. China is the one market where electric vehicles are sold in the expected volumes, and the Chinese auto manufacturers are moving quickly towards Level 3 autonomy, at which point the human driver will be free to do something else. China is also seeing a surge in RoboTaxi developments. The leading Chinese OEM manufacturers seem committed to LiDAR technology, which has led to a large and growing market for LiDAR in China. Consequently, the Chinese LiDAR manufacturers that were not featured in my original review have become the dominant players. In this article, I explain why I have invested in the largest Chinese LiDAR maker, Hesai. LiDAR Market Overview Hesai was picked out as the largest LiDAR manufacturer for the third time in July this year by the Yole Group. Yole is my preferred market analyst for this industry. They supply information to industry competitors and provide an annual report on sales. Yole also provides strip-down reviews of all the leading manufacturers' products, which I used in my first article on the industry, comparing the products of what seemed to be the leading manufacturers at that time. Key points from the Yole 2024 LiDAR report are: The LiDAR market for passenger cars grew 145% from 2022 to 2023, with approximately 762,000 LiDAR installed in passenger vehicles. Hesai has become the market leader, with more than 26% of this market. Hesai has a 74% market share of the RoboTaxi market, valued at $124 Million in 2023. Hesai achieved the largest volume of any LiDAR manufacturer, shipping 300,000 units to 18 OEM customers for use in 70 different car models. Yole commented that recent design wins and new OEM partnerships announced by Hesai will likely extend its lead over other manufacturers in 2024. On a longer-term basis, Yole forecasts the LiDAR market will grow with a CAGR of 39%, reaching $3.6 billion by 2029. They also note that the market is moving from supplying RoboTaxis to supplying personal cars and light commercial vehicles. Sales to PC and LCV now dominate the market regarding unit sales. The PC/LCV market reached $414 million in 2023. Since 2018, Yole has monitored 200 LiDAR design wins for different manufacturers, most of which are from Chinese OEMs. They also note that Chinese OEMs fit LiDAR into less expensive cars, whereas in Europe and the US, LiDAR remains confined to the class F segment; in China, they are commonplace in classes D and E and have begun to arrive in class C. Hesai had a 37% market share of all LiDAR sales in 2023, with RoboSense (a publicly traded company on the Hong Kong stock exchange Ticker 2498.HK) in second place with 21%. Yole noted that Chinese-produced LiDAR systems are now priced around $200 whereas European and US versions remain over $750. Hesai Progress Baidu (BIDU) launched its RoboTaxi (autonomous driving travel service as they call it) Apollo Go in Wuhan in 2022. Five hundred self-driving cars charging $0.50 for six-mile journeys have been available to Wuhan's 11 million inhabitants, and by the end of 2024 the fleet will be extended to 1,000 vehicles. Hesai is the exclusive supplier to Baidu, and each robotaxi has four of Hesai's latest AT128 LiDAR units. Baidu has said it will deploy 100,000 robotaxis across 11 Chinese cities, making the deal with Hesai worth $250 million. In the Q2 earnings call the Hesai CEO said This move is expected to be the first extensive deployment of robotaxi technologies in the Chinese market and Baidu's advancements are just the tip of the iceberg The five leading robotaxi companies in China have all signed exclusive LiDAR supply deals with Hesai, and that business alone could deliver revenue of close to $1 billion in the coming decade. (Q2 earnings) LiDAR is being adopted at a breakneck pace in China. This year, the top 10 best-selling EV manufacturers used LiDAR in 60% of their vehicles (Q2 earnings), and installations rose 250% in 12 months. Hesai has reported design wins with eight of the top 10 domestic manufacturers and 19 OEMs in total. Hesai reported series production partnerships with six of the top 10 global OEM manufacturers and signed exclusive supply deals with 13 of the 19 OEM customers mentioned above. The new ATX lower cost LiDAR system for ADAS has secured design wins from seven OEMs, and Hesai is guiding to millions of unit sales in 2025-2027 for this product alone. The AT512, designed for Level 3 autonomy in passenger cars, already has two major OEM customers. (Q2 earnings) Yole group provides a strip down analysis of Hesai products, including the AT128 used by Li-Auto in its L9 premium SUV (Hesai is the exclusive supplier to Li-Auto). The strip-down showed cutting-edge technology and identified the 128 laser configuration, providing accurate long-range results. Yole said, it likely took several years of collaboration between Lumentum and Hesai to master the process and achieve qualification for this novel technology in an automotive grade system. Hesai has significantly reduced the prices of its LiDAR technology by using its own integrated ASIC chips (Q2 earnings) and integrating novel technology from suppliers. Although Hesai's business is being driven by adoption in China, it is making significant progress outside of China. Hesai were removed from the US government blacklist recently, and in the Q2 earnings the CEO said they had secured four design wins with global OEM customers. Three of these are for JVs in China, two are with American companies, and one is with a European firm. The fourth is for a global OEM's worldwide shipments. Two additional European OEMs have awarded Proof of Concept awards to Hesai. It means Hesai is supplying 80% of Chinese Domestic car manufacturers and 60% of the top 10 manufacturers worldwide. Threats and Competition LiDAR is not the only way to provide the information a computer system needs to see what is around a car. Hesai faces two competitive threats: First, from different technology, and second, from other LiDAR suppliers. In the Q2 2024 earnings call the Hesai CEO noted that installations of LiDAR sensors are growing ten times as quickly as that of other sensors. Still, the competitive sensors are being offered by two large-scale companies that should be looked at. Tesla (TSLA) Tesla is seen by many as the benchmark for all things EV. Tesla continues to pursue a \"vision only\" path for sensing in autonomous driving. Tesla uses cameras, not LiDAR or radar. Tesla's view is not universally accepted. When I interviewed the CEO of Arbe Robotics (ARBE) he said that of the 50 OEMs he deals with 49 do not believe Level 3 autonomous driving can be achieved with cameras only. He also said \"Tesla has one problem, it cannot be done\" (I will put a link to the interview in the comments section of this article) We all understand the limitations of cameras; they cannot see through fog or snow and have trouble dealing with changes in light, such as when cars enter or leave tunnels. It is OK at Level 2, you can just blame the human but when you get to Level 3 autonomy carmakers are allowing the human the freedom to do something else and not keep their eyes on the road. A recent Wall Street Journal article (unfortunately behind a pay wall) looked at the data from 200 crashes involving Tesla's driver assist technology. The WSJ believes other technology could have stopped all of these crashes and that Tesla's insistence on cameras only is putting the general public at risk. Both the CEO of Arbe (interview) and the CEO of Hesai (Q2 earnings) have stated that their products would have avoided 100% of the crashes reported by the WSJ. MobilEye (MBLY) MobilEye is the biggest company in the autosensing field and consequently the largest potential competitor to Hesai. On September 9th, MobilEye announced they were ending internal development of LiDAR sensors, deciding to focus on the EyeQ6 computer vision system that combines cameras and 4D imaging radar. MobilEye had been developing FMCW LiDAR, a more advanced version of LiDAR capable of detecting speed and position. MobilEye will offer third-party LiDAR to customers in the future. In Q2, they announced that their original autosensing product EyeQ (a single camera system on a chip) volumes had doubled from Q1 to Q2 and the flagship SuperVision product sold 70,000 units in the first half of 2024. 140 million cars have EyeQ on board. (Mobileye website). SuperVision is an 11 camera + 1 optional LiDAR/Radar sensor. It is a whole car system, including MobilEye's Brain6 AI software stack. MobilEye is negotiating with 14 OEMs with this product. Some wins have already been announced, including with Zeekr. MobilEye does not appear to be making progress in the Chinese market, where lower prices are needed to allow the adoption of mainstream models. Currently, their share of this market is very small (Yole report) and they appear to be focussing on the vision-only version of SuperVision, the CEO said they were seeing traction from this product following TESLA stating they believe camera only to be the best way forward. (MBLY Q4 2023 earnings). MobilEye moving to a camera/radar system seems like a strategic move, but it may be an enforced one. MobilEye is struggling in China and not developing the traction expected. The Chinese LiDAR companies have significantly reduced the cost of their units and to compete a camera/radar system might be necessary for MobilEye. 4D Radar The other company, besides MobilEye, producing 4D Radar is Arbe. I am long ARBE already following my recent article on the company. Radar has advantages; it works over longer ranges and can see through many materials. The problem for radar is that it cannot see, it only detects. It can detect a traffic light, but not see if it is showing red or green. Radar is significantly cheaper than other sensors and will likely be combined with LiDAR and cameras to provide the most accurate map of the space around a vehicle. Other LiDAR Companies The original start-up LiDAR companies were left behind by Hesai and can no longer be considered a serious threat. Only Ouster (OUST) seems to have developed profitable revenue, LiDAR Start Ups (Author Database) Hesai has the strongest balance sheet and highest revenue of its immediate competitors. Ouster is outsourcing manufacturing to a company in Thailand (OUST Q4 2023 earnings call) and receives most of its sales from the robotics vertical rather than the auto industry where Hesai is focussed. Hesai Finances Hesai has a solid balance sheet, equity (assets – liabilities) stands at $540 million (CNY 3.8 Billion) and debt is $72 million (CNY 500 Million).   Hesai Balance Sheet (Author Database) I have converted the Balance sheet summary to USD but as Hesai report in Chinese currency the rest of this article will be in CNY. On a trailing 12-month basis, Free Cash Flow is approaching positive territory and the management guided approaching breakeven in Q4 2024. The chart below shows that PP&E has dropped to zero in the last 12 months. Operating cash flow turned positive in 2023 and looks set to continue in 2024. Hesai Cash Flow (CNY) (Author Database) Revenue Apart from the dip in revenue recorded at the beginning of 2024 it has been growing steadily since inception in 2019 Revenue Over Time (CNY) (Author Database) The dip in revenue at the start of this year was attributed to customer overstocking, a view backed up by MobilEye management, which reported the same problem in their earnings call. Valuing Hesai My valuation technique is to discount cash flows generated from a company's three-statement model. It is a crucial part of my investing strategy, and I will not invest in any company without a clear path to profitability and a fair value greater than 100% of today's share price. I will adjust the Share price figures to USD, but all other figures are in CNY. The most important driver for my Hesai model is revenue, but several others are worth explaining. Revenue: The revenue prediction is anchored on the 2029 Yole forecast for the market and Hesai holding on to its market share. Based on the orders and design wins already discussed and the historical revenue growth pattern, this seems a reasonable assumption. 2024 revenue is the midpoint of management guidance. After 2029 I have revenue growing by 10% until 2034. SG&A + R&D: Hesai has been cutting costs, the forecast for 2024 is H1 2024 x2 and then increasing by 5% until 2029, after which it grows with revenue. CAPEX: I have no guidance, and historical spending shows no clear pattern. I have assumed zero in 2024 (TTM is zero) followed by a random value between zero and 500 million until 2029 and between 100 million and 500 million to 2034. I don’t like using random values and will adjust them as information arrives. Working Capital: Another important driver with many assumptions. Days Sales Outstanding shot up to 160 days in H1 2024, and inventory days went to 255. In 2023, these two figures were 111 and 148, respectively. I ran the model with both sets of figures (as well as the three-year averages). The worst-case scenario delayed break even by 1 year and reduced the fair value of shares by 11%. I am presenting the model using the three-year averages, the middle option. Gross Margin: Historically, this has moved from 30-40% it jumped to 45% in H1 2024; management said this was due to an unusually large one-off service contract, and they expect margin to approach 40% for the full year. For this model, I have set margin to 39% and will adjust it as future information arrives. (MobilEye reported Gross Margin for SuperVision slightly above 40% in Q2). Cash Flow Forecast (CNY) (Author Model) The model suggests Free Cash Flow to the firm in 2026, and the management gave firm guidance that they have order visibility beyond that date, adding to the degree of certainty I have about the forecasts. I calculated a terminal value using the Gordon Graham formula with growth set to zero. I then discounted the cash flows using various discounting rates to produce the following output (converted to USD with the exchange rate USD1 = CNY 7.3, a rate close to the average for the last 12 months)   Fair Value of Hesai Shares in USD (Author Model) In most of my work, I use an 8% discounting rate; however, when I wrote about EHang (EH), my only Chinese investment, I started a policy of using 12% for Chinese companies to accommodate the increased risk of currency conversion. Using 12% we get a fair value for the shares of $28, and the current price is $5.15. An enormous 400%+ upside represents the forecast exponential growth rate of this company's products and their position as the market leader. Risks The forecast revenue growth drives the $28 share price valuation, and revenue growth is the main risk associated with my bullish thesis. There are two potential problems: Firstly, the total market may not grow to the size expected and secondly, Hesai may not be able to keep its market share. I think it likely that the market will grow beyond current predictions, not undershoot them. EV sales in China are growing quickly, and Chinese EV makers are putting LiDAR into more and more models. I also believe the current slowdown in EV sales outside China will prove temporary as improved technologies increase vehicle range. Hesai has been increasing its market share, and I think that it is likely to continue to do so. The small LiDAR start us have not made enough progress, MobilEye has exited the sector and continues to offer a premium-priced solution as Hesai is lowering price. Other Chinese manufacturers are a threat, but Hesai now seems to have a technological advantage. It is my opinion that for Level 3 autonomous systems, regulators will require multiple redundancy and that cars will need to have all three sensor types Camera, Radar and LiDAR. Hesai will likely retain its market share with its low-cost high-performance LiDAR. Hesai is Chinese, which brings regulatory concerns. Much of its products are built on technology sourced from the US, and this may become subject to increased control (70% according to Yole). The company was on the US blacklist for supplying military components but has recently been removed. In my opinion, the benefit of being Chinese outweighs the risk for Hesai, it is a domestic supplier to the fastest growing market for electric cars and RoboTaxis which gives a big advantage. Conclusion Hesai has the largest market share in the LiDAR industry, it dominates the RoboTaxi market with over 70% of the market. The market is primed for near exponential growth, Hesai has market-leading technology and a price advantage. It is the first to produce at scale and has signed many of the world's largest automakers on long term exclusive contracts. My mathematical model values Hesai shares at $28, giving a 400% upside. In the West, sales of electric vehicles are not yet growing as expected and the Western LiDAR companies have struggled to develop market traction. Tesla remains committed to a vision-only system without LiDAR and MobilEye has ended research on its own LiDAR research, concentrating on its imaging radar and third-party LiDAR systems in the future. In my opinion, MobilEye has moved from competitor to potential customer, and Tesla will at some point change direction and integrate both LiDAR and Radar into its cars. When LiDAR was priced in the thousands of dollars, the idea of combining it with other sensors seemed prohibitive, but Hesai now sell these units for a couple of hundred dollars, making it a reasonable proposition. Hesai has developed scale; it has signed contracts with 19 OEM customers, and 13 of them are exclusive deals. The largest OEMs in China are integrating LiDAR into most of their cars, which means that the majority of Chinese cars will have Hesai on board.  If the market grows as forecast, Hesai is significantly undervalued, and I recommend it without reservation as a Strong Buy.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"analysis","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2473854254"}