An ASML warning about the health of the semiconductor market is one factor weighing on AI chip stocks Tuesday - but one analyst says Nvidia investors shouldn't be worried
Nvidia Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. shares saw their Tuesday declines build after a semiconductor-equipment company warned of continued pressures in the broader chip market. But are investors in the hot artificial-intelligence chip names right to worry?
ASML Holding N.V. $(ASML)$ Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet said he expects a "more gradual" recovery in the chip sector than previously anticipated, though he made sure to note that AI isn't part of the problem. Rather, many areas of the market outside of AI are rebounding slowly, while there are still "strong developments and upside potential" in AI.
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst C.J. Muse reiterated that point in a note to clients as he defended shares of Nvidia $(NVDA)$, AMD $(AMD)$, Micron Technology Inc. $(MU)$ and Broadcom Inc. $(AVGO)$. "In no way shape or form does the company's updated outlook indicate any change in the AI growth story," Muse wrote after ASML's release.
AI graphics processing units have transformed Nvidia's business with such robust revenue that the company isn't swayed meaningfully by developments elsewhere in the semiconductor market. And while AMD isn't hauling in anywhere near as much AI revenue, the company saw 115% growth in data-center revenue during the second quarter. That helped AMD post 9% growth in overall revenue, even as the company's gaming and embedded businesses posted sharp sales declines.
Industrial and automotive are other areas of the semiconductor sector that have been weak. "While AI demand continues, recovery of othermarket segments appears to be taking longer than expected," Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon wrote. "We continue to be somewhat lukewarm on our broader analog coverage (auto, industrial), as well as PC."
ASML's warning weighed on shares of its U.S. peers Tuesday, with KLA Corp. $(KLAC)$ the S&P 500's SPX biggest daily decliner, off 14.7%. Applied Materials Inc.'s stock $(AMAT)$ fell 10.7% and Lam Research Corp.'s stock $(LRCX)$ declined 10.9%.
Shares of AI chip names had already been down prior to ASML's early release, likely reflecting concerns about the prospect of further export restrictions. The declines grew after the ASML warning, with Nvidia shares ending the day off 4.5% and AMD shares finishing the session off 5.2%. Intel Corp.'s stock $(INTC)$ lost 3.3%.
While the U.S. government has already restricted exports of advanced chip technologies to China, there could be more limitations in store for Nvidia and AMD, and that could be a bigger risk for the companies than non-AI industry trends.
Bloomberg News reported late Monday that the Biden administration has considered sales caps of the companies' advanced AI semiconductors, which could impact exports to the Middle East.
"Breaking news that the U.S. might cap some chip exports is yet more evidence of our strongly held view that markets should anticipate, regardless of election results, a postelection Washington paradigm shift that accelerates a transition to a national-security economy - if not an outright war economy, a close relative," wrote Terry Haines, founder of Pangaea Policy, an independent policy and political forecaster.
Representatives from Intel and Nvidia declined to comment, as did a spokesperson for the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security. AMD didn't immediately respond to a MarketWatch request for comment.
Nvidia's Tuesday stock decline marked a comedown from the record-high close seen in Monday's action.
"Nvidia's volatility relative to the S&P 500 is twice as high now than a decade ago," Datatrek analysts wrote Tuesday. The company "is a case study in how a larger market cap does not mean a less volatile stock and shows what happens when a business scales its disruptive technology into an addressable market with potentially explosive new opportunities."
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