PRAGUE, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Poland's zloty led losses in central Europe on Thursday, retreating close to two-month lows it hit earlier this month, as a firmer dollar continued to drag on the region ahead of an expected European Central Bank interest rate cut.
The ECB is likely to lower interest rates for a third time this year later in the day. At the same time, central banks in Hungary and the Czech Republic are showing more caution in easing campaigns started last year.
Expectations of a cut by the ECB have been a support factor for central Europe's currencies as lower euro zone rates create a more advantageous rate differential for the region.
But the dollar on Thursday also touched a multi-week high, on the back of a potential Donald Trump win at the upcoming U.S. election. That move cut into the risk appetite and put a drag on central Europe.
"The biggest issue here is the support, at least in polls, for Donald Trump," said Piotr Poplawski, senior economist at ING.
"This is something quite negative for emerging market currencies and the market started pricing in the whole Trump trade scenario. In this scenario we have the (United States) looking more isolationist."
The zloty bore the brunt, losing 0.5% to 4.32 to the euro and returning to the weak side of the psychological level of 4.30 after recent firming.
In Hungary, the forint steadied at 401.60 to the euro.
"The commentary from the ECB will be the key thing to watch later today, that can give some direction to the market," an FX trader in Budapest said.
Markets were also watching an economic conference in Budapest where Deputy Central Bank Governor Barnabas Virag is due to speak, only days before a central bank rate meeting scheduled for Oct. 22.
Virag last week flagged a likely pause in the easing of the bank's main interest rate - which remains the European Union's highest alongside Romania's - after an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and a shift in the U.S. rate outlook pushed the forint to 18-month lows beyond the big 400 per euro level.
The Czech crown was also treading water at softer levels after weakening this month, as it inched up 0.1% to 25.268 to the euro. Romania's leu was a tad stronger at 4.974 to the euro.
CEE SNAPSHOT AT
MARKETS 1138
CET
CURRENCIES
Latest Previo Daily Change
us
trade close change in 2024
Czech <EURCZK 25.2680 25.297 +0.11% -2.24%
crown => 0
Hungary <EURHUF 401.6000 401.55 -0.01% -4.59%
forint => 00
Polish <EURPLN 4.3200 4.2985 -0.50% +0.57%
zloty =>
Romania <EURRON 4.9740 4.9762 +0.04% +0.01%
n leu =>
Serbian <EURRSD 116.9400 117.03 +0.08% +0.26%
dinar => 00
Note: calcula 1800 CET
daily ted
change from
Latest Previo Daily Change
us
close change in 2024
Prague 1616.82 1612.5 +0.27% +14.34
200 %
Budapes 75212.10 75170. +0.06% +24.07
t 39 %
Warsaw <.WIG20 2329.28 2341.0 -0.50% -0.59%
> 0
Buchare 17464.76 17485. -0.12% +13.62
st 07 %
Spread Daily
vs Bund change
in
Czech spread
Republi
c
<CZ2YT= 3.4010 0.0370 +121bps +1bps
2-year RR>
<CZ5YT= 3.6580 0.0320 +159bps +0bps
5-year RR>
<CZ10YT 3.9330 0.0630 +172bps +3bps
10-year =RR>
Poland
<PL2YT= 5.0010 0.0310 +281bps +0bps
2-year RR>
<PL5YT= 5.3840 0.0960 +332bps +6bps
5-year RR>
<PL10YT 5.6120 0.0280 +340bps -1bps
10-year =RR>
FORWARD RATE
AGREEMENTS
3x6 6x9 9x12 3M
interba
nk
Czech <CZKFRA 3.77 3.48 3.29 4.13
Rep ><PRIBO
R=>
Hungary <HUFFRA 6.17 5.90 5.68 6.35
><BUBOR
=>
Poland <PLNFRA 5.81 5.49 5.06 5.86
><WIBOR
=>
Note: are for
FRA ask
quotes prices
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******
(Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague, Anita Komuves in Budapest, Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk and Alan Charlish in Warsaw; Editing by Shinjini Ganguli)
((jason.hovet@thomsonreuters.com))
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