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Trade's Reckoning With Tariffs; Mediating Montreal's Port Impasse By Paul Page
A second term for Donald Trump has the potential to remake the global trading system, and with it the flow of goods around the world. The former president is promising to wield tariffs far more forcefully than he did in his first term, making levies not just a tool for negotiation but an end unto themselves.
The WSJ's Greg Ip writes that tariffs under Trump could reach their highest level since the 1930s, pushing some prices up in the short term and potentially stunting growth as consumers and businesses adjust to the new taxes on imported goods. The long-term impact depends crucially on whether other countries retaliate, and how far Trump would be willing to negotiate.
The outcome could be anything from an all-out trade war, to a new trading system among U.S. allies united by their collective frustration with China.
Oren Cass, founder of American Compass, a conservative think tank that is close to Trump advisers and backs Trump's tariff plan, says the goal "isn't some kind of negotiation where we all get back to 1995," when the World Trade Organization came into force. Rather, he says, it's a "fundamental rebalancing."
One expert says that U.S. tariffs would go from among the lowest to highest among major economies. If other countries retaliated, the rise in global trade barriers would have no modern precedent.
The outcome could disrupt trade flows that have helped build supply chains from China to the U.S. and Europe, along with strings of containerships and networks of trucks and rail lines to move goods to inland points.
A Tax Policy Center analysis says Kentucky, Indiana, Tennessee, Mississippi and Michigan would be hit hardest by Donald Trump's proposed tariffs. (WSJ) China is studying higher tariffs on imports of some cars following a European Union move to raise duties on Chinese electric vehicles. (WSJ) The head of the International Monetary Fund says rising trade barriers are a headwind for global economic growth. (WSJ) CONTENT FROM: PENSKE Gain AI. Gain Ground with Penske.
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Learn More Quotable Transportation
Canada's government is trying to end uncertainty and disruption at the country's second largest seaport. Labor Minister Steven MacKinnon is trying to get dockworkers at the Port of Montreal and the port's employers to agree to mediation, the WSJ's Robb M. Stewart reports, in an effort to break a deadlock that has slowed down and redirected shipments through the major North American gateway . MacKinnon gave the sides until the end of the day on Friday to accept or reject the offer. MacKinnon said the mediation would come with an understanding that the employers and longshore union would agree that there would be no strike, lockout or other action during the negotiations. Dockworkers staged a three-day strike earlier this month and now are rejecting overtime, backing up cargo. One freight executive says shippers are already routing cargo through Vancouver on the West Coast and Halifax, Nova Scotia.
Number of the Day In Other News
Retail sales in the U.S. rose 0.4% in September , and were up 0.6% excluding the decline in gasoline sales. (MarketWatch)
China's economic growth slowed to 4.6% in the third quarter. (WSJ)
U.S. industrial production fell 0.3% in September , held down by the strike at Boeing and by the two recent hurricanes. (MarketWatch)
Europe's central bank is stepping up the pace of its rate cuts. (WSJ)
European Union exports to China declined 11% in August. (WSJ)
Japan's exports dropped for the first time in 10 months in September, including a 2.4% decline in shipments to the U.S. (WSJ)
CSX says securities regulators subpoenaed the freight railroad over its second-quarter earnings report. (WSJ)
Paint supplier PPG is cutting 1,800 jobs and selling its North American architectural-coatings business. (WSJ)
Nestlé slashed its annual outlook and says it will expand discounting to boost consumer spending. (WSJ)
Peer-to-peer cargo van-sharing business Fluid Market, a sister company to IKEA, filed for bankruptcy protection . (WSJ)
Human rights group Oxfam filed a complaint at the United Nations over what it says are worker abuses at Amazon and Walmart. (Sourcing Journal)
Deere & Co. is laying off around 300 people amid falling demand for farm and construction equipment. (Des Moines Register)
The U.K. sanctioned 18 crude tankers and four gas carriers in a drive against Russia's shadow fleet. (TradeWinds)
Swiss watch exports plummeted 20.8% by volume in September, including a 49.7% drop in shipments to China. $(WWD)$
DHL says the Tesla Semi truck exceeded the company's expectations under a two-week test in its operations in California. (Clean Trucking)
Growing numbers of Chinese truckers are switching from diesel-powered rigs to liquefied natural gas. (Financial Times)
Autone raised $17 million in a Series A funding round backing its supply-chain management platform for fashion companies. (TechCrunch)
Executive Insight
Here is our weekly roundup of stories from across WSJ Pro that we think you'll find useful.
In cyberattacks, one of a company's biggest costs is notifying all those affected. In some cases, it can even sink a business. Antitrust regulators will soon require much more information from private-equity firms looking to make deals in the U.S., including details of ownership structures. From Weird Barbie to Hot Wheels , Mattel is looking to build a more flexible supply chain. Boston's new women's soccer team pulled its "Too Many Balls" debut advertising campaign after online backlash. About Us
Paul Page is editor of WSJ Logistics Report. Reach him at [paul.page@wsj.com].
Follow the WSJ Logistics Report team: @PaulPage , @bylizyoung and @pdberger . Follow the WSJ Logistics Report on X at @WSJLogistics .
This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 18, 2024 07:03 ET (11:03 GMT)
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