Bearish Technical Patterns Emerge In Semiconductors And The Nasdaq

seekingalpha10-17

The semiconductor sector is underperforming, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF down over 12% since mid-July.The SMH ETF's technical breakdown below a key support zone ($246-$251) could signal further ...

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Now, it has hit a critical technical region that, if broken, could signal trouble ahead for the entire NASDAQ 100 (NDX). If the semis have trouble, it will be because Nvidia fails to push on to higher prices, and right now, from a technical and options market standpoint, there is an opportunity to see Nvidia move lower. Semiconductor Sector The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) peaked in mid-July and remains more than 12% below those highs. The latest blow to the group came after ASML Holding (ASML) surprised the market by issuing weaker-than-expected third-quarter bookings and weaker-than-expected 2025 guidance, sending the stock lower by more than 15%. But more importantly, it took the entire sector lower with it. From a technical standpoint, on October 14, the SMH tried to break out and rise above the upper end of a triangle pattern that had formed over several weeks. But then, on October 15, the SMH corrected, fell back into the triangle, and then dropped through the bottom of that triangle. This appears to have created a failed breakout attempt with a throw-over.   TradingView Perhaps more importantly, the support/resistance zone has been around $246 to $251 since May. That area has been crucial in the SMH's struggle to push through since August. A drop below that $246 price could signal further losses, potentially dropping back to around $215.   TradingView But overall, where the SMH goes, it will mostly depend on Nvidia (NVDA), which accounts for almost 22% of the weighting of the ETF. Nvidia recently hit resistance around $139.50, and the price has acted as such since the middle of June. If Nvidia can move higher and break out above $139.50, that likely means that the SMH finds the support needed at $246 and moves higher. However, if Nvidia were unable to break out and instead started to move lower again, it would likely result not only in the SMH moving lower but most likely support for the ETF breaking and pushing lower to that $215 region.   TradingView Luckily, Nvidia stock trades more like a casino, driven by options flows, and because of that, options positioning shows there is plenty of support at $130. One of the more substantial levels of gamma in Nvidia for this week's options expiration comes at $130, which means that the stock may be able to hold that price for a while longer. But it also shows us that there is plenty of resistance around $135.   Bloomberg More importantly, the opportunity for the stock to break support may come next week. This is when gamma levels at $130 will drop from a notional value of $130 million to less than $30 million. This means that the stock will be much more free to move lower if it so chooses.   Bloomberg This will also significantly impact the NASDAQ 100 and whether it can continue its upward momentum. The index has certainly not been able to make a new all-time high yet, and whether the Semis can largely determine it and, of course, Nvidia. After all, Nvidia accounts for 36.6% of the gains in the Bloomberg 100, a tracking proxy for the NASDAQ 100, in 2024.   Bloomberg Technically, the NASDAQ 100 futures appear to have a rising wedge that is present that seems very close to potentially breaking down. Additionally, volume levels in the future have been steadily declining and rose sharply on October 14, a down day. A move lower from here would be important because it would create a lower higher in the NASDAQ 100 futures and a true divergence from what has been seen in the S&P 500 thus far, which made a higher high.   TradingView Overall, the NASDAQ has a unique setup right now, which is being driven by the semiconductor sector, which is ultimately being driven by Nvidia.  Again, nothing is set in stone, and just because the setup is there doesn't mean the market will break lower. It just gives traders and investors something to watch, and support levels should start to break.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"analysis","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.0","shortVersion":"4.29.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2476921557"}