By Krisztina Than
BUDAPEST, Oct 24 (Reuters) - Central European currencies mostly traded slightly firmer on Thursday after a selloff in the previous session driven by jitters about the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
The dollar got a boost as investors no longer expect an outsized 50-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, a view that is reflected in rising Treasury yields.
The dollar was also supported by anticipation that Donald Trump could win a second term as U.S. president, as his tax and tariff policies are considered inflationary, which markets anticipate would keep U.S. rates high and hit trading partner currencies.
"There is a little bit of recovery in CEE3 today, euro/dollar is bouncing higher from the lows so there is some relief," said a Warsaw-based FX trader.
By 0838 GMT, the zloty was up 0.15% against the euro at 4.341, while the Hungarian forint , which has been the region's poorest performer with a 4.8% fall this year, was steady, hovering near its levels around 403 hit on Wednesday.
"Emerging market currencies weakened substantially yesterday while the dollar firmed," brokerage Equilor said in a note, adding that even though local markets in Hungary were closed, the forint also fell past 403 to the euro in illiquid trading, hitting its lowest level since January 2023.
The forint's weakness forced the National Bank of Hungary to pause its rate cuts at its meeting on Tuesday.
Even after cuts totalling 11.5 percentage points since May 2023, Hungary's benchmark interest rate at 6.5% is the highest in the European Union, with the National Bank of Hungary $(NBH)$ heading for what could be an extended pause in rate cuts.
"Given the importance the NBH places on exchange rate developments, we continue to believe the level of the Forint continues to act as the 'binding constraint' on the pace of rate reduction," Goldman Sachs said in a note this week.
On Friday, ratings agency Standard and Poor's is expected to release its review of Hungary's debt ratings and the wait for that has kept investors cautious.
The Czech crown was 0.17% firmer at 25.23.
"The Czech crown is in slightly defensive mode, but the uncertainty before the US election is clearly affecting it significantly less than the forint or zloty. The currency pair thus remains in the 25.20-25.30 range EUR/CZK," CSOB analysts said in a note.
CEE SNAPSHOT AT
MARKETS 1025 CET
CURRENCI
ES
Latest Previous Daily Change
trade close change in 2024
EURCZK= Czech <EURCZK= 25.2300 25.2740 +0.17 -2.09%
crown > %
EURHUF= Hungar <EURHUF= 402.5500 402.8500 +0.07 -4.81%
y > %
forint
EURPLN= Polish <EURPLN= 4.3410 4.3475 +0.15 +0.08%
zloty > %
EURRON= Romani <EURRON= 4.9734 4.9743 +0.02 +0.02%
an leu > %
EURRSD= Serbia <EURRSD= 116.9600 117.0600 +0.09 +0.24%
n > %
dinar
Note: calculat 1800
daily ed from CET
change
Latest Previous Daily Change
close change in 2024
.PX Prague 1639.87 1639.810 +0.00 +15.97%
0 %
.BUX Budape 74052.55 73846.09 +0.28 +22.16%
st %
.WIG20 Warsaw 2270.39 2256.21 +0.63 -3.10%
%
.BETI Buchar 17464.98 17442.24 +0.13 +13.62%
est %
Spread Daily
vs change in
Bund
Czech spread
Republ
ic
CZ2YT=R <CZ2YT=R 3.4440 -0.0340 +136b +2bps
R 2-year R> ps
CZ5YT=R <CZ5YT=R 3.7670 -0.0450 +170b +0bps
R 5-year R> ps
CZ10YT= <CZ10YT= 4.0430 -0.0250 +177b +2bps
RR 10-yea RR> ps
r
Poland
PL2YT=R <PL2YT=R 4.9660 -0.1670 +288b -11bps
R 2-year R> ps
PL5YT=R <PL5YT=R 5.4520 -0.0620 +338b -2bps
R 5-year R> ps
PL10YT= <PL10YT= 5.8270 -0.0510 +355b -1bps
RR 10-yea RR> ps
r
FORWARD
RATE
AGREEMEN
TS
3x6 6x9 9x12 3M
interbank
Czech 3.82 3.57 3.43 4.11
Rep <PRIBOR=
>
Hungar 6.85 6.20 6.46 6.40
y
Poland 5.68 5.26 4.83 5.85
Note: are for
FRA ask
quotes prices
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(Reporting by Krisztina Than in Budapest; Additional reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague and Alan Charlish in Warsaw., Editing by Barbara Lewis)
((krisztina.than@thomsonreuters.com;))
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