Old Dominion: A Classy Operator But Not Quite Cheap Enough

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Old Dominion Freight Line is a cut above its competitors in LTL trucking, with 99% on-time delivery, 0.1% loss ratio and winning best national carrier 15 times in a row.This superiority is borne out ...

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Some margin of safety would be required for me to recommend a buy.   RichLegg/E+ via Getty Images In a commodity business, the one thing that can set you apart is operational excellence. Some companies have brand value, some companies have a patent, others have a differentiated product, but in a commodity market, where the product is broadly uniform, prices are more-or-less dictated to the providers, meaning that their operational efficiency is the only difference between success and failure. The trucking business is not quite a commodity business - there are better and worse ways to get things from A to B - but many sources of competitive advantage which apply in other industries do not apply here. Old Dominion Freight Line (NASDAQ:ODFL) is a classy operator in this competitive business. The stock price appreciation over the past 10-20 years shows that: its 10-year total return is 750% compared to the S&P 500’s 190%. But recently the stock has underperformed, roughly flat over a 1-year time horizon while the S&P has risen ~38%. Though this recent underperformance looks like it might present an opportunity, especially as we could be due for an upswing for the trucking industry, I think the stock is currently trading around fair value, leaving no margin of safety if my projections for the business’s performance over the long-term turn-out to be wrong. Therefore, though I admire Old Dominion’s business model and consistent execution, and I do own shares, I can only recommend a hold at these prices. The Company Operations Old Dominion Freight Line provides less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carriage services. Put simply, this means that they provide freight by road for businesses that need to send shipments which are too large for FedEx or UPS (>150 lbs) but not large enough to fill a whole truck (<15,000 lbs). Old Dominion operates a network of regional hubs and local “spokes” called Pickup & Delivery (P&D) Centers. The P&D Centers, as the name suggests, deal with the pickup and delivery of the shipments from/to businesses or consumers in the local area. The regional hubs organize shipments by destination and move them between regions and across the country. As of June 2024, it operated 261 service centers in the 48 contiguous states. Customers either pay a tariff determined by the company’s internal freight-costing system or, for larger customers, agree a negotiated service contract. Differentiation In an industry like logistics, it is difficult for a company to set itself apart. The job is to move a thing from point A to point B safely, within a predetermined time period and at a reasonable cost. Many companies can do that. There are pockets where specialism is required - say moving very high-value items - but for the most part, the job is simple enough that many companies can offer a similar service. It’s no wonder then that the market is competitive and fragmented. The way for a company to set itself apart in this industry is to display operational excellence, and over the past decade and more, Old Dominion has been doing just that. As I mentioned, one important KPI for this industry is on-time delivery (OTD). This chart from ODFL’s investor presentation shows that it has improved markedly on that measure in the last 20 years to the point where it almost always delivers on time. ODFL Investor Presentation It’s difficult to find data from other carriers, and estimates of the industry average for on-time delivery range between 85% and 97% from the various sources I have looked at. But regardless, we can say that ODFL is operating above the industry average. What I find particularly impressive is the very small dip in 2021 during the supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic. Another KPI is the loss ratio, i.e. how many shipments are damaged in transit. ODFL measures this by cargo claims as a percentage of revenue, and it has also been going in the right direction: ODFL Investor Presentation A 0.1% loss ratio is as close to perfect as you are likely to get. But we want outside confirmation that Old Dominion is a classy outfit. The company was recently named the number 1 national LTL carrier for quality by Mastio & Company. But the impressive thing is that they have been accorded this title for the 15th year in a row! This survey was based on interviews with 1,600 logistics professionals across the US, so is probably a more reliable gauge of how popular the service is than an industry award, which is often judged by small groups of “experts”, and may thus be affected by industry politics. The press release states: ‘Shippers and logistics professionals consistently responded with OD as their top carrier, ranking OD #1 in an impressive 23 of the 28 evaluated categories, including “carrier is trustworthy,” “shipments delivered when promised,” and “ease of doing business with the carrier.”’ This chart from ODFL, based on data from Mastio's 2023 survey, shows that Old Dominion offers by far the best service. While they charge premium prices, they are by no means the most expensive, and Mastio believes they are charging fairly. ODFL Investor Presentation Further confirmation of ODFL's superior offering comes from net promoter scores (NPS) and customer satisfaction scores (CSAT). Here is a comparison of Old Dominion and some of its competitors:        Company NPS CSAT   Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. 40 80   J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. 34 62   FedEx Corporation 21 66   Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. 0 66   Landstar System, Inc. -6 33   XPO Logistics, Inc. -38 37   Estes -42 35   Saia, Inc. -56 20   Click to enlarge Data from comparably.com Old Dominion comes out on top on both metrics, showing they have a clear lead when it comes to customer satisfaction. Financials This lead should show up in market share growth and superior operating metrics to competitors. ODFL has demonstrated both, growing market share from around 2.9% of the LTL market in 2002 to 12% today. Its margins, return on invested capital and lack of debt compare favorably to its competitors:         Company Free Cash Flow Margin (10-Year Median) ROIC (10-Year Median) Debt/Equity   Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. 10.2% 21.2% 0   TFI International Inc. 8.4% 9.4% 1   Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. 6.1% 9.4% 0.2   Landstar System, Inc. 6.0% 23.3% 0.3   J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. 3.7% 18.3% 0.6   XPO Logistics, Inc. 3.3% 4.0% 2.1   Saia, Inc. 3.1% 13.3% 0.2   FedEx Corporation 2.0% 6.7% 1.1   Click to enlarge Old Dominion has the highest FCF margin over a 10-year period, the second-highest return on invested capital and the lowest debt. A note: all of these are public companies that provide LTL services. Some of them do not have LTL as their main line of business, so there is no direct comparison. There are also some large private companies in the LTL space, but it’s obviously not possible to compare their financials. The Culture I think part of Old Dominion’s operating superiority over its competitors comes from its culture. Until recently, it was a family-run business - the CEO was the grandson of the founders. This report from McKinsey explored the reasons for the outperformance of family businesses over time and concluded that there were four main reasons:  They focus on purpose beyond profits They take a long-term perspective and reinvest in the business They are financially conservative and cautious about debt and high-risk investments Their internal processes allow for efficient decision-making  I think the history of Old Dominion displays aspects of all these. Regarding the first, the company has been relentlessly focused in the last 20 years on improving the quality of their service by increasing on-time deliveries and reducing loss rates. This has been achieved partly through an extensive Driver Training Program. They made a significant investment in creating and running this training program and the result has been better safety, lower loss rates, higher on-time deliveries and improved driver retention (the 10-year average turnover rate for driver graduates is 7.4%). This example also covers the second point about taking a long-term perspective and reinvesting in the business. Another example is the fact that during cyclical downturns in the trucking industry, they have historically not laid off drivers. This is the move that most companies would make to protect profits in the next year or two, but Old Dominion shows loyalty to its drivers, which is reciprocated when the cycle turns up. One of the reasons they are able to do this is linked to point three. The company is certainly financially conservative with close to zero debt. They have not made any large acquisitions in the past 10 years, despite having opportunities to do so, e.g. with the recent bankruptcy of a large competitor. The fourth point is a little harder to determine, but there are examples of the company making big decisions which have improved its operations. One was the standardization of practices across all Service Centers. Though individual Service Centers were operating quite efficiently with their different methods, the management realized that employee retention and overall efficiency would be improved if employees could move round the country and immediately be equally productive in any Service Center. Thus, they initiated a process of standardization which was difficult but set the company up for greater success. The company was run by members of the Congdon family from its foundation in 1934 until 2018. Earl Congdon Jr and David Congdon, both former CEOs, still sit on the board. The current CEO is Kevin “Marty” Freeman. He took over in 2023 and has been with the company since 1992. It doesn’t surprise me at all that the company has promoted from within. It’s too early to judge whether he will adequately continue the legacy of the Congdon family, but he surely has a good understanding of the value of the company and the reasons for its success. Another positive of family-owned businesses is that they generally have good insider alignment. Insiders own about 10% of the company. As of the latest proxy, Kevin Freeman owns 64,432 shares, with a market value of around $12.8m. Given he has worked at Old Dominion since he was 19, I presume that this accounts for the vast majority of his net worth. The executive compensation plan states that the base salary is only 8% of the total potential annual compensation. The rest, a mixture of cash and stock awards, is based on performance. Furthermore, the company has a stock ownership policy, which sets a minimum amount of stock executives must hold as a multiple of their annual base salary. For example, the CEO must hold 6x his base salary in ODFL shares. I like to see this institutionalized insider alignment. It’s one of the many things that demonstrate that the company knows where its strength comes from. The Future Old Dominion’s annualized revenue growth over the past decade is around 10%. I think it should be able to sustain this. The LTL trucking market has grown at a 4.5% CAGR for the last 20 years, and Old Dominion’s market share has gone from 2.9% to 12%. I see no reason why the company can’t continue to take market share over the next 10 years, given the superior service it provides, its robust operating model and culture and its financial position. If the industry continues to grow at a 4.5% CAGR over the next 10 years, which, I think, is achievable merely with a combination of real GDP growth and inflation, and Old Dominion increases LTL market share from 12% to 20%, it can achieve 10% revenue growth. Given its market share roughly doubled in each of the last 10-year periods, I think an increase of two thirds over the next 10 years is well within the range of possibility. What about earnings? The business has experienced significant operating leverage over the past 10 years, with operating margin and net margin nearly doubling. I doubt that this pace of improvement in profitability can be maintained. However, there are some economies of scale in this business, and if the company can grow revenue, margins should continue to improve if at a slower rate. The company is continually producing plenty of free cash flow, which means it could use it to reduce share count. They have been doing this - the share count is down each of the last 10 years - but the pace of buybacks has not been dizzying, about 1.5% a year. I expect this to increase, though. As the company throws off more and more cash, it cannot all be used for CapEx, so more of it will be allocated to shareholder return. With small margin improvements and buybacks, I think it will be possible to attain 15% EPS growth over the next 10 years. The Risks Cyclicality Trucking is very much a cyclical industry, which tends to move up and down with economic (especially industrial) activity. We can see this in ODFL’s revenue growth, which averages 10% over the last 10 years but has had consecutive years of 6.6% and 0.6% (2015/16) and 30.9% and 19.1% (2021/22). However, unlike many cyclical stocks, ODFL has managed to consistently maintain profitability in downturns. It has been a public company since 1991, and it has made a profit every year. Although it’s certainly something to be aware of, I don’t think cyclicality poses existential risks for the company. Investors just need to be prepared for some draw-downs over a long holding period. On the bright side, these could be good opportunities to buy. The trucking industry has been in a cyclical downturn for a few years now, as indicated by the Truck Tonnage Index (for volume) and the PPI for trucking (for pricing):   Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis  Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Tonnage has not recovered from its 2019 peak and prices spiked during the pandemic and are normalizing from the peak in 2022. I can’t tell how long this will go on for, but I can say that it’s generally a better idea to buy cyclicals during a down cycle than at the top. Note: this data is for trucking as a whole. While there is no FRED data specifically for the Less-than-Truckload sub-industry, it accords with the pattern seen by ODFL. Loss of Competitive Advantage The competitive advantages I have listed in my analysis of the company are real and do constitute a moat in my opinion. However, the moat is a fairly narrow one because the advantages ODFL has need to be actively maintained. This “Process Power”, as identified by Hamilton Helmer, consists in the experience, expertise and mindset of the management. If they start to stray from the current values of the business or try new ideas that don’t work, this Process Power could evaporate pretty quickly. For example, if they choose to take on debt and make unwise acquisitions, the financial position could deteriorate. If they start cutting corners and decide to provide a cheaper service to gain market share that ends up being less reliable, margins (and maybe ultimately growth) could suffer. If they allow the working conditions and remuneration for their employees to deteriorate, it could lead to unionization, which would result in much less flexibility. None of these mistakes seem to be on the horizon, but I just mention them to point out that a moat based on process power is narrower than say that of Coca-Cola (KO) which has a priceless brand or Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V), which benefit from incredibly powerful network effects. Warren Buffett has said that he likes to own a business so good that an idiot could run it. I’m not sure that description applies to Old Dominion, but fortunately the management team appears to know what they are doing. Automation One potential risk that seems quite distant but is still worth considering is that of automation and autonomous vehicles. Let me paint the scenario. Tesla is about to start ramping up production of its Semi truck. Potential benefits of the product include:  Improved performance in acceleration and hill climbs owing to instant torque Lower energy costs Lower cost of vehicles  But beyond this, if Tesla is able to improve their self-driving software so that the trucks can operate autonomously, those who quickly adopt this new technology will have an advantage over those who don’t. This is because Tesla will price the software below the wage of a human driver in order to encourage adoption. If Old Dominion were to get caught on the wrong side of this equation, it could make its services uncompetitive, leading to a loss of market share and forced price cuts which would lower margins. However, thinking through the likely scenarios, I imagine that Old Dominion would most likely get on the right side of the new paradigm for the following reasons:  Their workers are not unionized. Truck companies whose workers are unionized will feel their wrath as soon as they start trying to automate. Automation would not replace all their drivers. It would only be useful for “line-haul” routes - those between hubs in the system - while P&D routes would still need a driver to load and unload items. This might help with the labor relations aspect. They are in a strong financial position which would allow them to spend a lot on CapEx in a short period of time. Other, more levered companies might put their solvency at risk by going all in on new vehicles, charging infrastructure, etc. They are a large customer. If there is a rush for orders of this product, larger customers are likely to be prioritized. Although some truckload (TL) companies may be ahead of Old Dominion, they will likely be near the front of the queue.  Even if Old Dominion were to get out ahead of this change, I can still see the disruption being painful, with higher CapEx requirements weighing on free cash flow, asset value write-offs if they have to retire diesel trucks early, low morale and perhaps discontent among the workforce. As I say, this seems at the moment like a remote possibility, but given that Waymo is already operating robotaxis in certain geo-fenced areas, so it's conceivable in the near(ish) future that autonomous trucks could drive common trucking highway routes between hubs. In any case, we are trying to think of risks the company will face over the long term, so the scenario is worth considering. Valuation ODFL is currently trading at around 35x forward earnings, which is expensive compared to its history. To mitigate this, we can say that a) it should have a premium multiple given its superiority to its peer group and b) since the trucking industry is in a down cycle, the earnings may be at a cyclical low and ready for an upswing, so the PE ratio is not the best measure of valuation. However, it’s also trading at elevated levels on Price/Book and pretty much any metric you could choose. Seeking Alpha’s valuation grade of D- confirms that the stock is, on its face, expensive:   Seeking Alpha Furthermore, I looked back at the PE coming out of previous cyclical downturns, and it was around 15x. Because Old Dominion is quite good at maintaining good earnings even during downturns, the phenomenon that often occurs in cyclical stocks where they have a high PE at the bottom doesn’t seem to happen here. I created a model to estimate the returns that investors could see for ODFL over the next 10 years. I made the following assumptions:  Revenue: 10% annual growth for the reasons given above. Net Margin: slight margin expansion on account of increasing scale. Shares outstanding: reducing around 3% a year - picking up the pace compared to recent history. Judging by their response to a question on the most recent earnings call, management will only buy back stock aggressively at lower multiples. I have assumed lower multiples going forward and therefore accelerated buybacks. If the multiple does not deflate, shares outstanding won’t decline as quickly, but the net effect on share price should be close to neutral. P/E: multiple comes down closer to historical levels.  These are the results: Model by the Author As you can see, the model suggests that the market is valuing ODFL quite fairly if my assumptions are in the right ballpark. Adding the small dividend yield of about 0.5%, shareholders would see a return slightly above the historical market average of 10%. I do expect the dividend yield to increase over time as the dividend has grown much faster than earnings since it was initiated in 2017 and the payout ratio is still very low. Even so, I wouldn’t expect the average dividend yield over the period to be much above 1%.  For most companies, I would look for a substantial margin of safety to recommend a buy, ideally 50%. However, my qualitative analysis of Old Dominion, combined with the fact that it appears the trucking industry is some way through a slow period, means that I would be comfortable buying with a margin of safety of more like 25%. With regard to the model above, that means a buy price of around $150, which is why I rate the shares a hold.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"analysis","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2478692766"}