ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:CNOB) just released its latest third-quarter report and things are not looking great. ConnectOne Bancorp missed analyst forecasts, with revenues of US$61m and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.41, falling short by 5.8% and 7.3% respectively. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
See our latest analysis for ConnectOne Bancorp
After the latest results, the four analysts covering ConnectOne Bancorp are now predicting revenues of US$361.1m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a major 45% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plunge 35% to US$1.13 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$361.2m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.29 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a real cut to EPS estimates.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$28.00, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic ConnectOne Bancorp analyst has a price target of US$30.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$25.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting ConnectOne Bancorp is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that ConnectOne Bancorp's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 35% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 7.3% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.7% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that ConnectOne Bancorp is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for ConnectOne Bancorp. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$28.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple ConnectOne Bancorp analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also see whether ConnectOne Bancorp is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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