Nasdaq chart structure not giving the 'warm and fuzzies': SA Election Forum

seekingalpha2024-10-30

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Wall Street's technology sector (NYSEARCA:XLK) has been one of the primary drivers of the current two-year-old bull run in U.S. equities, but Seeking Alpha analysts see some differing opinions on where tech stocks will head next.

In a conversation with Rena Sherbill, Seeking Alpha's director of content programming at the Election 2024 investing summit, Joe Albano, investing group leader of Tech Cache, said he sees some correction coming in tech, while Victor Dergunov, investing group leader of The Financial Prophet, said he believes the sector will continue to rally.

The summit session explored what the U.S. presidential election means for the technology sector.

Albano and Dergunov's varied opinions come at a time when the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (COMP:IND) has been notching new record highs, in a week in which no less than five members of the Magnificent 7 club report their quarterly results.

"I'll be honest, I've been looking since the summer for the tech side to correct," Albano said. "The thing that I'm concerned about is that with Nvidia (NVDA), with Meta Platforms (META), a lot of these big tech companies, they're running into lapping a strong year. And that's going to be kind of an issue when we get into 2025 where those growth numbers are going to start coming down," he added.

"I don't think there is enough of that momentum that we saw since the bottom in late 2022 to now...I'm thinking that we're going to see more of a correction in 2025 before we get maybe new highs," the investing group leader said.

"Even with the Nasdaq at highs, I think there's structures on the chart that aren't really giving me the warm and fuzzies for where we're going to be at the beginning of 2025 and even into Q2," Albano said.

The Nasdaq Composite (COMP:IND) earlier this summer slid into a technical correction on August 2, after the July jobs report stoked recession fears. On that day, the index closed at 16,776.16 points. It has surged +11.54% since then.

"It's the structure of the rally of the low from the summer that's really concerning to me because that structure does not look like the start of a new rally. It looks like something of an extreme bounce off those lows...there's not that great look to the chart that says 'hey this is going to continue to extend,'" Albano said.

The Financial Prophet's Dergunov, on the other hand, thinks that tech stocks will continue to rally.

"As (Albano) mentioned, we had a significant correction in August. That brought many stocks down by 30, 40, or even 50%, even more in some cases, and we're talking about significant companies like Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) and basically all the Magnificent 7," the investing group leader said.

"I think that was the big correction that many people were looking for. Of course, another correction is not out of the question, and it could happen basically at any time, but for now, the market looks relatively constructive," Dergunov added.

For investors looking to track the Nasdaq Composite (COMP:IND), here are some exchange-traded funds of interest: (QQQ), (QLD), (TQQQ), (QID), and (SQQQ).

Here are some tech-focused ETFs: (VGT), (XLK), (IYW), (FTEC), (IXN), and (RSPT).

For investors looking to track the elections through market instruments, here are some politically driven Republican and Democratic ETFs:

Readers interested in investing topics tied to the upcoming election can find more information at the ongoing Seeking Alpha Investing Forum: Election 2024; please visit the event website.

Dear readers: We recognize that politics often intersects with the financial news of the day, so we invite you to click here to join the separate political discussion.

More on the U.S. elections

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  • SA Asks: Which tech stocks could rise or fall on a Harris win?
  • Trump says he would replace income tax with tariffs on Joe Rogan podcast
  • Bill Ackman says Pershing not placing bets on U.S. presidential race outcome
  • Election scenarios by UBS: Blue Sweep, Red Sweep, split Congress for Harris or Trump
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