市场定价特朗普胜选全球资产走势将有何变化？

4E Exchange10-30

10月以来，特朗普在民调中后来居上，全球市场情绪迅速变化，交易主线也开始逐渐切换至对选情结果的押注。随着美国大选进入大决战阶段，市场似乎嗅到了越来越明确的信号，“聪明钱”已经大幅定价朝着特朗普倾斜。市场正在真金白银押注特朗普获胜当地时间周二，知名“特朗普概念股”，特朗普媒体集团股价继周一大涨21.59%后，又继续大涨8.76%，10月以来累计涨幅已达到220.54%。此外，KBW地区银行指数在过去...

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How will the global asset trend change?","themeId":"d837090faa384e23f76c880ec86f6846","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"10月以来，特朗普在民调中后来居上，全球市场情绪迅速变化，交易主线也开始逐渐切换至对选情结果的押注。随着美国大选进入大决战阶段，市场似乎嗅到了越来越明确的信号，“聪明钱”已经大幅定价朝着特朗普倾斜。市场正在真金白银押注特朗普获胜当地时间周二，知名“特朗普概念股”，特朗普媒体集团股价继周一大涨21.59%后，又继续大涨8.76%，10月以来累计涨幅已达到220.54%。此外，KBW地区银行指数在过去一个月内上涨了10%远超大盘，显示出市场对特朗普相关资产的显著信心。美元和美债收益率也显示出“特朗普交易”迹象。当前，美元指数的大幅攀升至104-105，连续第四周上涨，非美货币承压；10年期美债利率从此前低位回升至4.28%，较9月末抬升48bp。与此同时，比特币因特朗普对加密货币的支持而成为“特朗普交易”的核心资产之一。10 月30 日，时隔7 个月的比特币再次突破 7.3 万美元，距离历史高点仅仅差0.2%涨幅。数据显示10月以来，美国比特币现货ETF吸引了超过30亿美元的资金净流入，机构买盘强劲。比特币现货ETF的总净流入过去几周，美元走强、美债利率抬升、银行和加密板块走强，这些最为直接的“特朗普概念股”表现强势，市场正在以真金白银去押注特朗普会赢。特朗普当选后对主要资产的价格影响美国大选正在白热化阶段，特朗普当选的预期日益增强，市场开始押注其当选后的政策对不同资产类别的潜在影响。特朗普政策的经济影响可能在主要资产之间产生鲜明分化，全球经济格局也将随之变动。1、美元可能走强特朗普的政策主张包括提升关税和减税，预计会推高通胀预期，美联储在降息方面将变得更加谨慎，支撑美元强势。当前，美国经济基本面稳健，尤其是高就业率和温和通胀，为美元提供了有力支撑，美元预计将在全球外汇市场上继续走强。2、顺周期与科技板块或将成美股主线市场普遍看好特朗普当选后对美股的提振作用。美国经济较为坚挺，特朗普主张减税和放松管制，这有利于促进企业盈利和居民消费，特别是顺周期和科技板块将成为投资者重点关注的方向。在财政扩张、AI产业需求旺盛和全球资金再配置等宏观因素的支撑下，美股的中长期走势将更具吸引力。回顾历史，大选年美股大多录得上涨，如2016年大选，特朗普获胜后的扩张性政策推动了标普指数的迅速反弹，这也给今年的美股走势提供了历史参考。3、大宗商品需求或面临调整相比民主党，共和党的能源政策倾向于支持传统能源产业，特朗普当选可能放松对化石燃料的限制，推动油气产业扩张，或在中长期抑制油价。当前中东局势发酵可能性减弱，加之全球经济放缓对原油需求的下降预期，油价短期内或震荡走弱。而黄金市场当前在高位持续走强，已计入了较多特朗普政策框架下的避险和抗通胀需求，一定程度偏离美元和实际利率定价下的基本面支撑水平，若大选后不确定性降低，黄金的价格可能面临回调压力。4、比特币将迎来新一轮涨势今年美国大选的周期与比特币的周期严丝合缝，特朗普对加密市场政策友好，其本人也深度参与了各种加密活动和相关产品，“让比特币成为美国战略储备”的宣言更是让加密市场沸腾。特朗普胜选对币圈是极大利好，比特币将迎来新一轮涨势，加密资产在全球市场中的影响力也将达到新的高度。结语当前“特朗普交易”正深刻影响全球资产定价。大选的最终结果无论如何，全球市场将面临一次前所未有的资产重估机遇。4E作为阿根廷国家队官方合作伙伴，提供覆盖加密货币、大宗商品、股票、指数等600多种资产的交易服务，同时支持年化收益率高达5.5%的理财产品，用户持有USDT即可随时一键投资。此外，4E平台设有1亿美金风险保护基金，为用户的资金安全再添一重保障。借助4E，投资者可以紧跟美国大选市场动态，灵活调整策略，抓住每一个潜在机会。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2479217028"}

市场定价特朗普胜选 全球资产走势将有何变化？

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市场定价特朗普胜选全球资产走势将有何变化？