知名“大空头”：美股尚未完全定价特朗普的胜选前景

市场资讯10-29

专题：全球屏息以待美国大选市场将如何应对？金十数据比特币正在飙升、墨西哥比索在下跌、债券收益率也在上升。的确有一些证据表明，市场参与者已经开始计入特朗普在美国总统选举前获胜的可能性。但美股或许并非如此——至少不会有那么大的变化。摩根士丹利的首席美国股市策略师Mike Wilson研究了自10月1日以来等权重标普500的表现。金融板块是表现最好的行业，工业板块也是表现较好的行业之一。作为特朗普交易...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2479225440?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2024-10-29 15:21","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2479225440","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"知名“大空头”：美股尚未完全定价特朗普的胜选前景","media":"市场资讯","content":"<div>\n<p>专题：全球屏息以待美国大选 市场将如何应对？金十数据比特币正在飙升、墨西哥比索在下跌、债券收益率也在上升。的确有一些证据表明，市场参与者已经开始计入特朗普在美国总统选举前获胜的可能性。但美股或许并非如此——至少不会有那么大的变化。摩根士丹利的首席美国股市策略师Mike Wilson研究了自10月1日以来等权重标普500的表现。金融板块是表现最好的行业，工业板块也是表现较好的行业之一。作为特朗普交易...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241029152114ab7de44b&s=b\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>知名“大空头”：美股尚未完全定价特朗普的胜选前景</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n知名“大空头”：美股尚未完全定价特朗普的胜选前景\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-29 15:21 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241029152114ab7de44b&s=b><strong>市场资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>专题：全球屏息以待美国大选 市场将如何应对？金十数据比特币正在飙升、墨西哥比索在下跌、债券收益率也在上升。的确有一些证据表明，市场参与者已经开始计入特朗普在美国总统选举前获胜的可能性。但美股或许并非如此——至少不会有那么大的变化。摩根士丹利的首席美国股市策略师Mike Wilson研究了自10月1日以来等权重标普500的表现。金融板块是表现最好的行业，工业板块也是表现较好的行业之一。作为特朗普交易...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241029152114ab7de44b&s=b\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4077","symbol_name":"互动媒体与服务","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241029152114ab7de44b&s=b","article_id":"2479225440","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241029152114ab7de44b&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2479225440","pubTimestamp":1730186467,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"的确有一些证据表明，市场参与者已经开始计入特朗普在美国总统选举前获胜的可能性。摩根士丹利的首席美国股市策略师Mike Wilson研究了自10月1日以来等权重标普500的表现。但Wilson指出，除了金融板块外的其他版块涨幅并不是很大，并且这些板块也得益于强劲的财报季。因此，如果特朗普交易尚未被市场完全定价，那么如果共和党获胜，选举后相关股票是否会有上涨？Wilson对此有所怀疑，至少与2016年相比是这样。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","BK4516":"特朗普概念","MSFT":"微软","DJT":"特朗普媒体科技集团","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"translate_title":"Well-known \"big short\": U.S. stocks have not yet fully priced in Trump's victory prospects","themeId":"d837090faa384e23f76c880ec86f6846","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DJT":0.9,"MSFT":0.6},"content_text":"专题：全球屏息以待美国大选 市场将如何应对？金十数据比特币正在飙升、墨西哥比索在下跌、债券收益率也在上升。的确有一些证据表明，市场参与者已经开始计入特朗普在美国总统选举前获胜的可能性。但美股或许并非如此——至少不会有那么大的变化。摩根士丹利的首席美国股市策略师Mike Wilson研究了自10月1日以来等权重标普500的表现。金融板块是表现最好的行业，工业板块也是表现较好的行业之一。作为特朗普交易的一部分，这在某种程度上讲得通——例如《华盛顿邮报》报道说，共和党候选人顾问们考虑过要降职现任美联储监管副主席巴尔，这一举动被视为政府希望放松监管的信号。如果关税减少了外国竞争，工业板块也会从逻辑上受益。但Wilson指出，除了金融板块外的其他版块涨幅并不是很大，并且这些板块也得益于强劲的财报季。在主要行业中，金融板块在盈利方面最为出人意料，并且销售增长惊喜排名第二。他表示：“换句话说，在我们看来，基本面因素对金融板块的影响更大，并且将比选举结果继续更多地影响该板块。”他还注意到，自10月1日以来，材料股和小盘股表现略微不佳。Wilson说，特朗普交易在关税敏感型消费股和可再生能源股的表现不佳上更为明显——而如果哈里斯获胜，这些股票可能会出现补涨交易。因此，如果特朗普交易尚未被市场完全定价，那么如果共和党获胜，选举后相关股票是否会有上涨？Wilson对此有所怀疑，至少与2016年相比是这样。当时，商品、制造业和工业部分的经济正从深度收缩中复苏，而现在经济周期更加成熟。并且市场在2016年迎来再通胀剧本，而如今通胀的伤痕仍然明显。他说：“对消费者来说，通胀不像现在这样是个逆风，而与赤字扩张相关的债券市场期限溢价上升的风险也不像今天那么重要。”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2479225440"}