By Elena Vardon
French banks' third-quarter prints are expected to show resilience, with seasonal factors driving on-quarter declines. Here is what you need to know:
The performance of the shares of France's three blue-chip lenders was mixed during the three-month period. Political uncertainty in the country continued, with the new government unveiling its budget and economic policies. BNP Paribas's stock edged down 2.1%, Societe Generale shed 6.1% and Credit Agricole rose 1.8%.
WHAT TO WATCH:
--The lower rate environment should lead to an acceleration in fee income, loan growth and support net interest income for longer. "This environment appears ripe for the French banks to outperform and we expect to see the first signs of this emerge," Deutsche Bank wrote.
--The dynamics between French net interest income--or NII, the difference between what banks earn on loans and what they pay out on clients deposits--and non-net interest income as the European Central Bank interest-rate cuts are digested will be in focus. French banks have a high exposure to fee-geared businesses, which prefer low interest rates, such as asset management, insurance and car leasing.
--The market will focus on trends in French retail banking revenue, which will depend on loan volume growth, especially at Societe Generale after disappointments in the first two quarters of the year. A rebound in French NII is more of a fourth-quarter story, Barclays said.
--Looking at corporate and investment banking activity, beats on revenue from U.S. peers bode well for their French counterparts that have heavy equities-trading activities and already surpassed expectations last quarter, UBS said.
--Better revenues could be offset by higher costs and cost of risk normalization from low levels. This could dent BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole's bottom line, Deutsche Bank said. Societe Generale should see improvement in this area on the back of low base effects.
--Morgan Stanley will be looking for an update from Credit Agricole on mergers and acquisitions as the lender seemed more open to pursuing larger deals in its call with analysts last quarter. Credit Agricole owns a 9% stake in Italy's Banco BPM.
SCHEDULE:
--Societe Generale: Thursday Oct. 31
--BNP Paribas: Thursday Oct. 31
--Credit Agricole: Wednesday Nov. 6
Write to Elena Vardon at elena.vardon@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 30, 2024 09:40 ET (13:40 GMT)
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