North American Morning Briefing: Investors Look To Safe Havens Ahead of Risk Events

Dow Jones10-31 18:09

OPENING CALL

Stock futures ebbed lower as investors leaned into safe havens ahead of a week full of risk events.

Traders moved into the supposed safety of sovereign bonds, pushing down yields, as a bout of nervousness spread across markets.

Poorly-received updates from Meta Platforms and Microsoft called into question the valuations afforded the market's dominant mega-cap technology sector.

Moreover, the deep uncertainty of next week's too-close-to-call presidential election looms large, swiftly followed by a Federal Reserve decision on rates.

"Election jitters loom large, with investors wary of taking on new risk as the U.S. election countdown begins," SPI Asset Management said.

Premarket Movers

Booking Holdings posted third-quarter adjusted earnings and revenue that beat analysts' estimates. The stock was up 5.5%.

Carvana rose 19% after third-quarter earnings topped analysts' estimates.

Coinbase Global fell 3.6% after it reported third-quarter earnings and revenue that missed analysts' estimates.

EBay fell 9.5% after it issued weak guidance for the fourth quarter and year.

Etsy gained 6.8% after reporting higher-than-expected third-quarter revenue in the third quarter.

Meta Platforms was down 4.4% after posting better-than-expected third-quarter earnings but forecast rising infrastructure expenses next year.

Microsoft fell 3.7% after issuing second-quarter revenue guidance that was lower than expected. Microsoft also forecast rising expenses related to artificial intelligence.

Root went up 72% after swinging to a profit in the third quarter and reporting a jump in revenue of 165% to $305.7 million.

Robinhood Markets fell 11% after third-quarter adjusted earnings and revenue missed Wall Street expectations.

Super Micro Computer fell 4.4%, a day after shares tumbled 33% when its accountant, Ernst & Young, resigned.

Postmarket Movers

Nextracker raised its full-year profit outlook as it posted higher-than-expected results in its fiscal second quarter. Shares rose 16%.

Watch For:

Weekly Jobless Claims; Personal Income and Outlays for September; Employment Cost Index for 3Q; Chicago PMI for October; Canada GDP for August; earnings from Amazon.com, Apple, Comcast, Intel, Mastercard, Merck, Uber Technologies

Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:

-The Next President Inherits a Remarkable Economy

-Meet the Wall Street Bigwig Who Has Become Trump's Headhunter in Chief

-Meta and Microsoft: AI's Spending Champs Won't Be Tapping the Brakes

MARKET WRAPS

Forex:

The DXY dollar index hit its lowest in more than a week, largely in response to overseas events, ING said.

Wednesday's eurozone growth and German inflation for October were above expectations, lifting the euro versus the dollar as markets scaled back expectations for a 50 basis-point rate cut by the European Central Bank.

The euro held to gains it made against the dollar on Wednesday following above-forecast eurozone gross domestic product and German inflation data.

Further economic data on Thursday, including flash estimate eurozone inflation and U.S. PCE inflation could lift it further, UniCredit Research said.

Sterling is on course to rise and should reverse October's losses against the dollar, according to UBS, which expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates only once more this year.

The dollar also fell versus the Japanese yen after the Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda said interest rates could rise if the economy and inflation develop in line with the central bank's projections.

This reverses the recent trend of the dollar strengthening due to prospects of Donald Trump winning next week's election, ING noted.

Energy:

Oil edged higher after rising 2% in the previous session, boosted by positive signs on U.S. fuel demand and improvements in top crude importer China.

China's latest PMI data showed manufacturing activity expanded for the first time in six months in October.

"We'll need to see if the stimulus rollout can lead to a recovery of domestic demand to offset potentially softer external demand picture," ING said.

Prices were also supported by a Reuters report that says OPEC+ might delay its planned output hike due to concerns over soft oil demand and rising supply.

The cartel and its allies are scheduled to meet on Dec. 1 to discuss their next policy steps.

Metals:

Gold hovered around record highs as it "continues to find support from investors amid heightened macro risks," ANZ Research said.

"The market appears to be positioning for a high level of uncertainty ahead of the U.S. election."

The World Gold Council said demand for the safe-haven asset remains strong, up 5% on year in the third quarter.

Investors now await inflation and employment data from the U.S. over the next two days.

   
 
 
   
 
 

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

 
 

Bud Brewer AB InBev's Sales Volumes Drop More Than Expected, Dragged by China Weakness

Budweiser brewer Anheuser-Busch InBev posted sales volumes that fell more than expected in the third quarter, dragged by weak consumer spending in China.

The world's largest brewer-which also houses Stella Artois and Michelob Ultra in its portfolio-said Thursday that overall volumes fell 2.4% on an organic basis, a steeper drop than the 0.4% decline that analysts expected.

   
 
 

Stellantis Says It Is Moving Quickly to Cut U.S. Inventories

Stellantis said it is moving quickly to reduce bloated inventories in the U.S. while it is on track to launch around 20 new models this year.

Third-quarter group shipments fell 20% on the year as the company works to reduce the number of cars stocked at U.S. dealers and as it suffered from gaps in its product line-up ahead of new car launches. Headwinds from a challenging European market also dented shipments, it said.

   
 
 

Intel Reports Earnings Today. Analysts Are Worried About the Outlook.

Semiconductor analysts are concerned expectations for Intel's December quarter may be too high. Investors will get a key update on chip maker's business after the market close Thursday.

The Wall Street consensus is that Intel will report September quarter revenue of $13.02 billion with an adjusted earnings-per-share loss of 2 cents. Analysts' estimates for the current quarter's revenue is $13.66 billion with earnings per share of 8 cents.

   
 
 

Amazon Earnings Could be Mixed. Here's the Bright Spot.

Amazon.com has a lot to prove when it reports third-quarter earnings on Thursday after the stock market closes.

Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect the tech behemoth to post earnings of $1.14 a share on revenue of $157.28 billion. In the same period last year, the company reported earnings of 94 cents a share on revenue of $143.08 billion.

   
 
 

The Last Inflation Report Before the Fed's November Meeting Is Coming. What the Release Means for Interest Rates.

Federal Reserve officials will get another important look at inflation on Thursday morning, ahead of their Nov. 6-7 policy meeting. The latest reading of the personal consumption expenditures price index is likely to show a small uptick in U.S. inflation, which remains above the central bank's target.

The PCE report for September will be published at 8:30 a.m. ET on Oct. 31, as part of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' personal income and outlays report.

   
 
 

BOJ Holds Rates Steady, Governor Sees U.S. Economic Fog Starting to Clear

TOKYO-The Bank of Japan's governor struck a less cautious tone about the outlook as the central bank delivered a widely expected rate hold and reaffirmed that it's on track for stable inflation and economic growth.

The Japanese central bank maintained its target for the overnight call rate at 0.25%, the level reached after the last hike in July.

   
 
 

China PMIs Hint at Economic Recovery

An official gauge of China's manufacturing activity rebounded in October, snapping a five-month run in contractionary territory in a tentative sign of recovery as Beijing strives to revive the economy.

The manufacturing purchasing managers index came in at 50.1 in October, up from 49.8 in September, according to Thursday's data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

   
 
 

Write to gareth.mcpherson@wsj.com TODAY IN CANADA

Earnings:

Aecon 3Q

AltaGas 3Q

Baytex Energy 3Q

Black Diamond 3Q

Canadian Natural Resources 3Q

Capstone Copper 3Q

Cenovus Energy 3Q

Centerra Gold 3Q

Cogeco Communications 4Q

Eldorado Gold 3Q

Fairfax Financial Holdings 3Q

Gildan Activewear 3Q

Open Text 1Q

Polaris Renewable Energy 3Q

Trisura 3Q

Veren 3Q

Economic Indicators $(ET)$:

0830 Payroll employment, earnings and hours, and job vacancies for Aug

0830 GDP for Aug

Stocks to Watch:

Allied Properties 3Q Rev C$146.6M

Badger Infrastructure 3Q EPS 68c; 3Q Rev $209.4M

Champion Iron 2Q Rev C$351M; 2Q Net C$19.8M; 2Q EPS C$0.04; 1H Net C$101.2M Vs. Net C$81.9M; 1H Rev C$818.1M Vs. C$684.7M; Keeps Dividend at C$0.10; Price Target Raised 3.2% to A$9.60/Share by Euroz Hartleys

Eloro Resources Increases Non-Brokered Private Placement Offering to 4.2M Units for Gross Proceeds of C$3.8M; Schedules Closing for Oct. 31

First Capital REIT Announces C$200M Offering of Series D Senior Unsecured Debentures

North American Construction Announces Normal Course Issuer Bid for Up to 2.09M Shrs; 3Q EPS C$0.52; 3Q Rev C$286.9M; 3Q Adj EPS C$1.17; Sees 2024 Rev C$1.4B-C$1.5B; Sees 2024 Adj EPS C$3.95-Adj EPS C$4.15

Parkland 3Q EPS C$0.52; 3Q Adj EPS C$0.61; 3Q Rev C$7.1B

Slate Office REIT Announces Disposition of Two Office Properties in Winnipeg, Manitoba, for C$25.2M

Spin Master 3Q EPS $1.32; 3Q Adj EPS $1.60; 3Q Rev $885.7M; Sees 2024 Revenue Excluding Melissa & Doug in Line With 2023

Timbercreek Financial 3Q EPS C$0.17; 3Q Adj EPS C$0.17; 3Q Net C$14.1M; 3Q Net Investment Income C$25.4M

   
 
 

Expected Major Events for Thursday

00:01/UK: BRC Consumer Sentiment Monitor

01:00/JPN: Sep Steel Imports & Exports Statistics

04:30/JPN: Sep Preliminary Report on Petroleum Statistics

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

October 31, 2024 06:09 ET (10:09 GMT)

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