美国大选进入倒计时 “特朗普2.0”成全球经济领袖“心头刺”！

上海有色网10-29

距离美国11月5日正式大选仅剩一周的时间了，不仅美国国内两党“打得火热”，全球各国的经济领袖也都在屏息以待最终结果。不过，最让他们担心的却是：美国前总统特朗普重返白宫。在上周国际货币基金组织和世界银行的年会上，低增长、高债务和不断升级的战争本是官方议程的首要议题，但金融领导人们却把大部分精力都花在了担心唐纳德·特朗普在11月的美国总统大选中重新掌权的潜在影响上。共和党候选人特朗普在最近的民意调查中...

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Chartered）分析师Steve Englander将美元升值的60%归因于特朗普在博彩市场前景的改善。据悉，全球经济领袖们最为担心的问题是，特朗普可能会大幅提高关税，增加数万亿美元的债务发行，以及逆转应对气候变化的工作，转而支持更多的化石燃料能源生产，从而颠覆全球金融体系。日本央行总裁植田和男表示：“每个人似乎都担心谁将成为下一任总统，以及新总统将采取哪些政策的高度不确定性。”贸易战人们普遍担心，针锋相对的全球贸易战会阻碍通胀压力的缓解。南非央行行长Lesetja Kganyago表示：“如果一个国家征收关税，就算被征收关税的国家不会以同样的方式作出反击，但如果它们也效仿在全球范围内征收关税呢？这就会推高物价，那么令通胀降温的过程可能会对世界各国央行构成挑战。”一位不愿透露姓名的央行官员更坦率地描述了他的担忧：“现在开始感觉特朗普要赢了。特朗普发誓要对来自所有国家的进口产品征收10%的关税，对来自中国的进口产品征收60%的关税。这将打击全球的供应链，可能引发报复并提高成本。”德国财长克里斯蒂安·林德纳（Christian Lindner）则警告称，如果美国对欧盟发动贸易战，可能会遭到德国的报复。“贸易争端从来没有赢家，只有输家。”他说。此外，随着融资环境和通货膨胀压力的缓解，美联储大幅降息50个基点，通常应该预示着新兴市场增长进入“金发姑娘”时刻。但如果特朗普重返白宫，这场“派对”可能很快就会结束。土耳其财长Mehmet Simsek表示:“赤字扩大意味着债务增加，债务增加意味着长期利率上升，这也可能意味着美元走强。美国长期高利率和强势美元不利于新兴市场。”减税另一方面，特朗普还试图通过提供众多税收减免来吸引美国选民，从延长2017年所有的个人减税政策，到免除小费税、加班费税和各种社会保障福利的税收。分析人士表示，这将使美国在未来10年里至少再增加7.5万亿美元的新债务，此前国会预算办公室（Congressional Budget 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