Citi remains overweight on US assets in equities and bonds ahead of the US elections

Cherlyn Yeoh11-01

Citi has updated its 2024 US real GDP estimate from 2.4% to 2.7% and 2025 real GDP estimate from 2.3% to 2.4%. Citi Global Wealth Investment analysts Steven Wieting, Joseph Fiorica, Ken Peng, ...

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Citi Global Wealth Investment analysts Steven Wieting, Joseph Fiorica, Ken Peng, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/us-economy/citi-remains-overweight-us-assets-equities-and-bonds-ahead-us-elections?utm_source=Blog&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=Tiger_Brokers_app_RSS\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"edge_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Citi remains overweight on US assets in equities and bonds ahead of the US elections</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCiti remains overweight on US assets in equities and bonds ahead of the US elections\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-01 08:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/us-economy/citi-remains-overweight-us-assets-equities-and-bonds-ahead-us-elections?utm_source=Blog&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=Tiger_Brokers_app_RSS><strong>Cherlyn Yeoh</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Citi has updated its 2024 US real GDP estimate from 2.4% to 2.7% and 2025 real GDP estimate from 2.3% to 2.4%. Citi Global Wealth Investment analysts Steven Wieting, Joseph Fiorica, Ken Peng, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/us-economy/citi-remains-overweight-us-assets-equities-and-bonds-ahead-us-elections?utm_source=Blog&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=Tiger_Brokers_app_RSS\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4539","symbol_name":"次新股","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/us-economy/citi-remains-overweight-us-assets-equities-and-bonds-ahead-us-elections?utm_source=Blog&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=Tiger_Brokers_app_RSS","article_id":"2480505368","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2480505368","pubTimestamp":1730421927,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"edge_highlight","name":"Edge"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Citi has updated its 2024 US real GDP estimate from 2.4% to 2.7% and 2025 real GDP estimate from 2.3% to 2.4%. ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"theedgesingapore.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4539":"次新股","BK4213":"石油与天然气的勘探与生产","BK4546":"3D打印","BK4076":"电脑与电子产品零售","BK4161":"工业机械","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","DM":"Desktop Metal Inc.","GDP":"古德里奇","EM":"怪兽充电"},"translate_title":"在美国大选之前，花旗仍是美国股票和债券资产的跑赢大盘","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DM":1,"EM":1,"GDP":1},"content_text":"Citi has updated its 2024 US real GDP estimate from 2.4% to 2.7% and 2025 real GDP estimate from 2.3% to 2.4%. Citi Global Wealth Investment analysts Steven Wieting, Joseph Fiorica, Ken Peng, Guillaume Menuet, Cecilia Chen, Joseph Kaplan and Melvin Lou have updated their global economic forecasts ahead of the US elections, raising their US real gross domestic product (GDP) estimate for 2024 from 2.4% to 2.7% and 2025 real GDP estimate from 2.3% to 2.4%.\nIn a report released on Oct 26, the team attributes this to stronger-than-expected tracking data for the US economy.\nFurthermore, “following disappointing data this year and more aggressive policy announcements”, the team has raised its GDP estimate for China from 4.8% to 5.2% in 2025.\nThe team notes that there are potential portfolio implications.\nCurrently, the team’s overweight positions are generally concentrated in US assets in both equities and bonds.\nThe team expects new record highs in US corporate profits next year and keeps their global equity allocation 4.5% overweight this month, while global fixed income and cash remain 4.5% underweight.\nEarnings per share (EPS) growth has been faster in the US equity market than other large regions, while emerging markets (EM) in Asia, a region the team is slightly overweight in, anticipates double-digit EPS gains this year.\nEurope is expecting a 3.6% regional EPS gain while Latin America is expecting a 1.8% gain. This is in comparison to a 10% gain for the US with 29% for US large-cap tech shares.\nThe team notes that in the bond market, US sovereign yields have been higher than all but a particular group of EM, mainly in Latin America.\n“Looking forward, we believe valuation favours the rest of the world over the US in equities. Yet US political risk could favour further gains for the US. These issues are the reverse for the bond market,” the team adds.\nAccording to the team, US equities have consistently outperformed the rest of the world for 15 years with both profits and valuations generally increasing.\nUnder President Trump, US equities grew at a 16% annualised rate while US equities grew at a 14% annualised rate during Biden’s administration. This does not take into account inflation, which would lower realised returns.\nThe team notes that changes to the US domestic tax policy and potential tariffs could affect global interest rate and foreign exchange trajectory in the next year. Alternatively, status quo policies may be maintained.\nIn the scenario where US trade and tax policies remain unchanged, Fed rate cuts could ease a strong US dollar, which would benefit the rest of the world. Conversely, the team notes that with Fed easing “strongly embedded” in bond market valuations, a sharp increase in the US dollar seems highly likely if US trade and tax policies follow Trump’s stance. \nThe team takes an optimistic view, with their updated economic forecast, before major US policy changes are considered, suggesting a broadening of profit gains across regions and industries globally. China’s actions to combat deflation could also serve as a helpful catalyst in 2025.\nFurthermore, the team notes that if the US does not take strong fiscal actions to stimulate demand, US interest rates could remain on an easing track to allow for global easing in line with key central banks this year.\n“But if the US does stimulate demand while restricting foreign supplies, it could turn [to] challenge the dovish narrative,” the team notes, adding that “it is not difficult to image a 100 basis points (bps) difference in US yields under opposing political scenarios.”\nThe team remains conservative on non-US allocations given post-election US policy, although they recognise that potential opportunity is building. US equities have outperformed non-US by 15 percentage points (ppts) over the last 12 months, but Asia looks broadly appealing for growth and valuation.\n“Regionally, however, Asia stands out for having markets with growth, value and positive historical performance when US rate or foreign exchange (FX) pressures ease,” the team says, adding that “A large, concentrated positioning China’s recovery is not necessary to take a more positive view.”\nThe team notes that shares across EM and developing markets (DM) in Asia are trading at about 15 times this year’s profits, with EPS anticipated to increase at a double-digit pace in 2024 and 2025.\nAdditionally, regional shares could benefit from the changes to China’s economic policy to address the implications of a burst property bubble and industrial deflation.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.2","shortVersion":"4.29.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2480505368"}